LibertyBell

There is no cold on our side of the globe

Yeah that's what I was saying, is this a general oceanic circulation thing that affects all oceans now.....are the western parts of all oceans becoming much warmer than the eastern parts? I can see WHY that might be happening. With more heatwaves and a general west to east movement of circulation it stands to reason that western basins would become warmer than eastern basins all over the northern hemisphere at least. Perhaps the same is happening in the Atlantic.

Think about it this way, at first it was being said all of February would be mild and snowless, now you're cutting into the first 10 days of the month.

That's some hill lol.

Because we have to combine this info with temperatures (which are warmer than they were back in the 80s.) The temperatures even with blocking have become warmer than they used to be. Also I have bad allergies today, from this @!#$%^ wind. To now be having allergies in Januaries is something I hadn't thought possible.

I think your screen name for this season should be CPdoesnthavetomeasuresnow lol

and this was THE GOAT

Aren't the cooler waters off the west coast the direct result of the warmer waters in the West Pac though. It's a push-pull thing I guess. I wonder what's going on in the East Atlantic? Maybe the eastern basins of the major oceans are cooling off while the western basins are heating up? How come the troughs from the previous years on the west coast didn't cause as much rain as this one? It's basically saved California from forest fires and exceptional to extreme drought!

That was so awesome because it was a very strong el nino and basically an enhanced version of 1982-83. Now we can talk about what caused the enhancement (some of that was definitely climate change.... Chris posted some research showing that the warmer waters added a kick to that storm causing more snow to fall than would have otherwise fallen.)

Yes but that makes those low snowfall periods more likely, which is what we're looking at now. Also, indices aren't as useful as one might think. We need a certain type of el nino just like we need a certain type of negative NAO.

and likewise the new CMC to the GFS

This is why indices aren't as useful as one might think. We need a certain type of el nino just like we need a certain type of negative NAO.

I wonder what the chances are of a 2002-03 or 2009-10 type of el nino. Granted, getting to high end moderate doesn't mean it's going to be cold or snowy, 1994-95 and 2006-07 were like that too.

The ironic thing is it isn't just us, this has been happening in large parts of the world that expects snow and relies on snow. That removes the "luck" part of the argument for me.

Sure they can produce (in a relative sense) but there is a cap of around 4 inches in bad patterns. I've seen that before several times. But in a global climate that is becoming warmer and less snowy everywhere (not just here) this is the kind of thing we should expect to be happening more frequently.

Yeah basically winter had ended for us after that January event and wasn't coming back without that SSW.

It was a south based block, which has been happening for a few years now.

Geographically it makes sense, they are a snowball's throw away from Maine which is like the arctic tundra compared to us lol.

The SSW made that entire winter (after January of course).

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/einstein-s-parable-of-quantum-insanity/ Someone has to tell them then-- because even science magazines keep repeating it lol. This whole article is worth reading actually, it explains why what people call "luck" doesn't actually exist, and you can apply this to weather or anything else really-- there is inherent unpredictability in complex emergent systems. The bold part is why there is no such thing as luck-- we simply have a very imperfect understanding of nature and reductionism simplifies our theories, not nature itself. “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” That witticism—I’ll call it “Einstein Insanity”—is usually attributed to Albert Einstein. Though the Matthew effect may be operating here, it is undeniably the sort of clever, memorable one-liner that Einstein often tossed off. And I’m happy to give him the credit, because doing so takes us in interesting directions. First of all, note that what Einstein describes as insanity is, according to quantum theory, the way the world actually works. In quantum mechanics you can do the same thing many times and get different results. Indeed, that is the premise underlying great high-energy particle colliders. In those colliders, physicists bash together the same particles in precisely the same way, trillions upon trillions of times. Are they all insane to do so? It would seem they are not, since they have garnered a stupendous variety of results. Of course Einstein, famously, did not believe in the inherent unpredictability of the world, saying “God does not play dice.” Yet in playing dice, we act out Einstein Insanity: We do the same thing over and over—namely, roll the dice—and we correctly anticipate different results. Is it really insane to play dice? If so, it’s a very common form of madness! We can evade the diagnosis by arguing that in practice one never throws the dice in precisely the same way. Very small changes in the initial conditions can alter the results. The underlying idea here is that in situations where we can’t predict precisely what’s going to happen next, it’s because there are aspects of the current situation that we haven’t taken into account. Similar pleas of ignorance can defend many other applications of probability from the accusation of Einstein Insanity to which they are all exposed. If we did have full access to reality, according to this argument, the results of our actions would never be in doubt.

That's the part I'm interested in-- what caused the Pac jet to go so crazy and develop into an el nino pattern? So basically our worst possible pattern would be an early el nino pattern and a later la nina pattern. La Ninas are supposed to be great early and El Ninos are great late and we have the opposite of that.

Isn't that from Einstein?

Yes I'm a results oriented person too. The atmosphere can't be reduced to a few indices. I see the whole planet and basically the same thing going on everywhere. If you want the answers as to why this is happening that's all you really need to know.

not with this luck thing again--- the pattern was never all that great to begin with

Pattern can change as much as it wants, there just isn't as much cold air around as there used to be. That's brutal honesty. Even a place like Buffalo that has seen so much snow has had warmer temperatures than they normally have.