LibertyBell

and the summer will probably be extremely hot, as summers after strong el ninos usually are

70s and 80s were much less snowy than the 90s, the 80s especially, no above normal snowfall seasons that entire decade

weak to moderate phases are becoming much less common

22-23 isnt even on this list and ended up the highest ranking in futility?

So this was when the warmth of the historic 1931-32 winter began.....

Thanks I'm headed up there in a couple of hours! So a little less than an inch up my way?

and in a la nina (la ninas after el ninos are our best snowfall seasons)

I wonder how much our political leaders are actually reflecting the will of the people-- specifically the older people. Having talked to so many people the last few months, it's surprising how many I find who believe in climate change but don't think it's a big problem. They actually think the planet will be better off being warmer because it will support more biodiversity specifically more plant life. These are some very intelligent people with some misguided views-- and they use Hawaii as the ideal for climate, saying it is the most biodiverse place on the planet and imagine if the rest of the planet had a climate like Hawaii. They dont care so much about sea level rise, saying that people should move away from the oceans-- they call us "coastal elitists." I've taken to using health as a bigger argument, because fossil fuels do adversely affect our health and that is a bigger concern to these people than the weather becoming warmer, which they actually seem to want. They even use ridiculous arguments like growing produce in Greenland, Siberia and Antarctica as reasons to want the weather to get warmer (and supporting a growing population-- which we need to stabilize anyway.)

Yes indeed-- and this is one instance where authoritarianism is better. If you had a powerful UN Secy General who could completely ban these companies and set the agenda himself or herself, we would have stronger movement on these issues. What is their logic for allowing fossil fuel companies to participate?

Thanks-- so that could be 3 MECS for someone or other on the east coast this season? Also, and this is much further ahead, but do you think we will have a very hot summer, based off of what usually happens in the summers after a strong or super el nino fades?

I just read your well detailed outlook, sounds like you agree with many that the real pattern change will happen around or after January 20th and should last through the end of February and perhaps even into early March. It agrees well with pattern shifts we've seen in the past that last for 6-8 weeks.

if January and February are both good, then it can still be a very good winter. Look at the snowfall totals of 1977-78 and also 2014-15

there were some really bad winters in that 2000-2018 period though: 2001-02 2006-07 2007-08 2011-12 more good ones though is this some kind of cyclic oscillation rather than simple regression?

Yep, this period compares to some of our worst stretches (late 80s early 90s and again late 90s into the new millenium)

using the 2015-16 analog, likely around 1/20 or later

Maybe it will be like 1982-83 or 2015-16 and we will get our chance in the climo peak of winter?

Is this some kind of long term climate shift? It seems like this happens EVERY YEAR now-- la nina, el nino, or lo nada

Where do you think this el nino will end up--stronger than 1957-58 but not as strong as 1997-98, 1982-83 or 2015-16?

I wonder if it'll extend into February this time. We were super close to having a very good February in 2016-- do you remember the storm around the superbowl?

Don I believe they will experience it though-- we are seeing accelerated changes and within the next 20 years or so, these companies will no longer be sustainable. natural gas is a euphemism-- it is actually methane as you know also why is it the secretary general uses much stronger language while the results of these conferences are less strong?

why dont fossil fuel companies get banned from these COP fiascos? why should these companies have any rights to have a say in anything? Like the tobacco companies, you wont see any progress until you eliminate their voices in making any decisions.

Jan 1985 was the last time Long Beach went below zero wasn't it? Amazing to live near the ocean where it can both be below 0 and over 100 lol.

July 2010 felt really good, I went running in that dry heat and I remember people saying it didn't feel like it was above 100 during the big heatwave.

something I like about hot and dry weather is it's much easier to breathe and much lower air pollution (humidity traps vehicle exhaust particulate matter near the ground) and also the lower temps at night.

no, a hotter and drier and less humid summer would be far preferable