LibertyBell
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Yeah if it had that HECS in March it would have done it and been the superior winter. I have three things I go by for an A winter: 1. At least three months with 10"+ inches of snow (or at least two months of 20"+ snow.) 2. At least 50" of snowfall for the season 3. At least one HECS (20"+) snowstorm.
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Not without an HECS. That was a nice B+ winter
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I look at that as an inland winter-- no other way for PHL to get 68" while NYC got 57"...I'm sure Long Island had less than that 02-03 was superior to that and had an HECS to boot.
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This would also require record historic blocking. Chris please include 02-03 and JFK in this too, that was our last wall to wall winter. How did 2013-14 exceed 1995-96 at PHL? That winter had zero HECS...was it an inland winter much like 93-94? Way more snow in PHL than we had here. I see 1922-23 in that list for NYC, was Feb 1923 when we had that record wintry precip event?
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The only time in my life where I thought a storm could pull off what those two storms did if it were all snow was December 1992. You actually had to experience it to fully realize how much of a beast that storm was for three days. If that storm had happened in February it may have topped all the other events we've talked about on this page. We were in the mid to upper 30s with heavy rain and high hurricane force winds for 3 days...the snow was so close to us. That would have been a 30-40 incher for sure if it had happened later in the season. The entire coast and city were wrecked during that storm. Regardless of how "great" the March 1993 "superstorm" was, the December 1992 meganoreaster was the real showstopper (and citystopper) of that season.
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If that was an all snow storm, it probably represents the ceiling or nearly the ceiling of what is possible here. The other one is February 1922 (I hope I got the year right) that was our largest winter precipitation event, which had nearly 20 inches of snow even though half the storm was sleet and freezing rain. I think it was around 5 inches of liquid equivalent. Even with a simple 10:1 ratio that's 50 inches of snow right there. Could be pushing 60 inches with air as cold as what we had in January 2016 here.
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I love reading about that. That was one of the most undermeasured HECS in the recorded history of NYC. I think both March 1888 and January 1996 were significantly undermeasured here. Probably February 1978 too. And PD2 for NYC (JFK measured it better.) There's probably a few from the 60s that make that list too (February 1961, February 1969.) And my benchmark storm February 1983. Very windy very long duration snowstorms are the hardest to measure. But back to March 1888 the sheer enormity of it and the totals reported from Brooklyn and Queens indicate to me that it was probably around 30" in NYC. January 1996 was probably around 25-28" PD2 probably around 20-22" at NYC and ditto for February 1983 .And keep in mind they only measured at the end of the storm back then.
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oh okay another bad one (but not as bad as 89-90 and 01-02)
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neutrals are the worst possible outcome. neutrals after la ninas include some of the worst winters ever.... 89-90, 01-02 and 11-12 being three examples.
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we might actually need a near strong el nino to offset the la nina atmospheric state
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won't be 1972-73 strong either. I like 2002-03 right now
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I'm hoping for something like 02-03, what are your thoughts on that, Ray? It's interesting that 1982 was mentioned since today is the 40th anniversary of the February 1983 blizzard when 2 feet of snow fell here, it was the benchmark storm of the 80s and the benchmark snowstorm of my youth. A great Cat 4 HECS.
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Sometimes I wonder if people confuse plausibility with plausible deniability lol
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meh if we get one 6 inch storm in March or even early April you'll have a more positive outlook and look forward to next winter. At this point I think you'll even settle for a March 2001 redux lol.
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Yeah that record can be broken I agree with that, just not in a 14-15 kind of set up here. 14-15 can get us to 50" just not the 80" we would need to get there. Historically we need 3 really good months so that's what I'm going to go with. With three months of 20"+ or even two months of 20"+ plus two other pretty good months we can do it. That basically gives us what we got in 95-96.....the only other thing we would need is to get rid of that nasty three week mild/rainy spell in the middle of January in 96. Do you know what we would need to make that happen? Historically ENSO accounts for only about 20% of our winter weather....but where it seems to exert its greatest influence is la ninas that come after el ninos. Note that 95-96, 10-11 and 17-18 were all la ninas..... 02-03 was our best el nino in recent times, we got almost 60" here.
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Yeah....you're not bright enough to realize I don't want to use it...especially when it comes to posting a dozen or more times in a row. I just weenied 15 of your posts, looks like I'm not the only one weenieing you either. Huge waste of time spending even a second on someone like you. Got anything else to say "bro"?
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nah I dont like to pollute my mind with inferiority lol
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Not extinct but not likely either. I do think 95-96 can be broken but it won't be in a 6 week pattern, it will have to happen over a three month period.
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Let's see if we can ever get that kind of consistent pattern again. I do think that record can be broken, in a wall to wall winter. NYC only got 0.8" in April I believe, so that amount doesn't matter...JFK had about 5" that was a coastal event.
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and RTD208 stop weenieing otherwise I'll go through all your posts and weenie every single one of them-- just watch.
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NYC record is close to 80" I don't believe this can be done in a 6 week period, in a wall to wall winter, it's possible. We would rather have a wall to wall anyway. But we are completely ignoring what's happened to the climate, I hope you realize that. It's like being on a completely different planet now, I would not be enthused about breaking those records, we need to be realistic.
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Yeah I compiled this list of what is realistically possible by month....I had 12" for March and 6" for April.
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Boston already had close to 100" in previous historic winters. You really cannot compare Boston to New York, it's night and day.
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There's not that much of a difference between coastal NJ and Brooklyn and NYC.....if you look at late season patterns, I'd argue that Brooklyn and coastal NJ actually do better than NYC because of what you said before about colder water temps...vs Manhattan being much more urbanized. There's a few storms that prove this....April 1996 and April 1997 being near the top of the list. Still not historic but 10" is definitely possible late in the season.
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Yes February is fine, it's the best month for snowfall. Things change rapidly in March.
