LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Yeah that's the first time I've seen a storm drop 3 feet of snow in central Suffolk while it rained for the first half of the storm in western Nassau and then we changed over and got a foot of snow.
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Aren't the major players still out over the Pacific?
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I dont trust any 6z or 18z model runs.
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very high Atlantic SST provides the fuel, which the combo of arctic air and the low ignite.....this is the result. Feb 2013 is a case in point, with ridiculous 3 feet plus totals across Long Island and CT.
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Yeah but we can't expect perfection all the time. Those combos are very rare, so we take what we have and make the most of it.
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Could climate change create an even bigger event than we would otherwise expect? I'm talking about three feet plus totals somewhere....
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I dont care if the sun has to go supernova for this to happen-- MAKE IT SO!
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The storm should slow down as it rapidly strengthens and the trough tilts negative. Dont need blocking for a 24 hour storm.
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I think 97-98 was the fluke....the examples of great south shore 20 plus inch HECS includes Feb 1983 and Jan 2016, both of which were amazing here. I'm going by JFK numbers, where 82-83 was the snowiest season between 77-78 and 93-94 and the only one with over 30 inches of snow in that period and in 2016 we had over 40 inches of snow.
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it was snowing and sticking here this morning with the sun out
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It was snowing and sticking here with the sun out this morning
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It would be interesting to see what the five biggest all snow storms were with a positive AO and NAO.
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why is it called a chaser? who is doing the chasing and who is being chased?
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This is the perfect track for us.
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Both, after midnight Friday night and all day Saturday and first half of Saturday night, a true 24 hour storm.
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This is the perfect track for us.
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Aren't all events thread the needle events? They could all trend slightly one way or another and cause big changes to the outcome. I've seen mixing or changing or out sea tracks with -AO and -NAO too. I'd rather have a +PNA than a -NAO or -AO.
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This is why our largest storms were first forecast to miss our area to the south.and east. See Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2, Boxing Day 2010 and Jan 2016
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It's probably not going to be that far east either, so expect more trending west. 12 inches plus here as is here in SW Nassau, but I want the 20 inch plus totals.
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Thats how they develop an eye-- it's what happened in Feb 1978 Storm surge too
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backside snow
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We want it to trend a little further west to get in on the good stuff (by good I mean 20 inches plus). Here in SW Nassau I would like it to go 100 miles further west- a track between Block Island and Nantucket would be ideal.
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You actually want some to go west of LI to ensure this wont go too far east of us. I want a track between Block Island and Nantucket. How many of the ensembles go west of 40/70?
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No one remembers that storm....the only storm from Jan 2015 that most remember is the 10 incher that was supposed to be a 30 incher
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We had rain at the beginning here with that one, that wont be the case this time around. If that storm was all snow here it would have easily been 20 inches plus
