LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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If we even get an inch of snow, it will be a win for the GFS.
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Chris, weren't some of these other winters pretty warm too-- we didn't see much snow in 1998-99 or 1987-88 either (although we did have the one snowstorm in January 1988 that was pretty good.) 1970-71 and 1965-66 didn't give us much snow either, but they were definitely colder.
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Meanwhile Lee Goldberg says he is issuing a snowfall map at 6 PM.....I doubt it shows any accumulation for us, but he did say it would go from rain to mix to snow at the end for us.
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That's a really weird winter, are we sure there weren't any snowfall measuring problems at Central Park? What was JFK's snowfall total that winter? How is possible for barely 25 miles south of us to get 50" of snow and NYC only gets 25"-- they didn't even reach their seasonal average (although it was snowier than many other winters in that decade.) The following winter was also snowier south of us wasn't it-- in 1987-88 there was the big Veteran's Day snowstorm that hit DC to Philly, somehow skipped over us and then hit Boston. We got 1-2 inches (I remember this storm!) but both north and south of us saw much more (sort of like April Fools Day 1997).
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For a second I thought you were talking about NY lol
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1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses. It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches. January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.
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the most important part is it's been SUNNY
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The 1960s had the best winters and summers from that era. 1966 particularly.
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thats a puzzling drop because we had some of our coldest winters during WW2.
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Don can you also graph 3-6 events please? I couldn't find data on them.
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It seems like we still get 1-3 pretty commonly. We don't get the moderate 3-6 storms much anymore.
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DelMarVa maybe but Tennessee maybe not because areas near the ocean are warming faster because the ocean itself is warming faster. I'm not sure what's up with the DelMarVa because DC's snowfall has dropped pretty quickly.
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IMO it's not the decline in 1-3 thats a big deal, it's the decline in 3-6 thats the real issue here. a bunch of 3-6 storms add up quickly and thats what we've really lacked
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The only ones I remember that happened since then are 2008-09 and 2012-13. In 2008-09, a moderate snow event in December (4"), a cold somewhat dry January with lots of minor snow events but long lasting snow cover, a February snow event that dropped another 4" and the March 1st storm that gave us 8". Not a bad winter at all. I liked this a lot more than 2012-13 which consisted of two snow events, the one in November which happened a week after Sandy and then the one which hit Suffolk County hard and we got sideswiped.
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The other thing about early season snows is they typically mean that it's colder up north too. So there is snow cover to our north, the lakes freeze earlier, etc and cold airmasses are much less modified when they get down here, resulting in colder air when the storms come and more snow for us. This is probably why in some winters, like 1993-94 the models underestimated the amount of cold available and the storms always trended snowier and colder. 1995-96 was like this too, outside of the three week thaw in January after the big blizzard.
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No multimodel support, so it's just a tease.
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I saved it, even if simulated snow is the only snow we get, at least we will always have this.
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Right, it seems like what happens in December or early January is what usually repeats later in the season.
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If only this would work out, it's a great pattern for anyone from I-80 on south.
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ah so in this case we're part of the midatlantic.
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Why is the enthusiasm so low though? Is everyone taking a wait and see approach? Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this.
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well the pattern is supposed to peak at the end of February and early March when the greatest effects of the SSW plus the pattern change both converge so that may be the best time regardless. and it's not like that's without precedent, a few of our recent bad winters had their only snow event in early March.
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Yes, and the days are noticeably longer on both ends (the sky is starting to get brighter before 6:30 am and stays bright after 5 pm).
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Wow, does it look like a 2010 repeat? El nino to la nina transitions are very hot! The following winters are usually nice too -
In most such hyperactive seasons we don't get hit. We didn't in 2005 or 2020 either.
