LibertyBell

I dont think it works that way. I notice the companies adjust their costs so if the winter is warmer they charge more per unit to make up the difference.

Let's see if we can get February to finish with an average temp of 40.0... Looks like the last day of the month and the first day of March could be cold though?

I wonder if it all did or there was another eruption like that somewhere it would be enough to create a cascading reaction and trigger another ice age? Wasn't there an era when volcanic eruptions were much more common? Something must have triggered them....

Now all that's left is to determine when we'll have our last freeze.

I find this absolutely fascinating. Have you heard about the deadly lake in Cameroon that killed over 1500 people in just a few minutes when it exhaled CO2? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos_disaster On 21 August 1986, a limnic eruption at Lake Nyos in northwestern Cameroon killed 1,746 people and 3,500 livestock.[1] The eruption triggered the sudden release of about 100,000–300,000 tons (1.6 million tons, according to some sources[who?]) of carbon dioxide (CO2).[2][3] The gas cloud initially rose at nearly 100 kilometres per hour (62 mph; 28 m/s) and then, being heavier than air, descended onto nearby villages, suffocating people and livestock within 25 kilometres (16 mi) of the lake.[4][5] A degassing system has since been installed at the lake, with the aim of reducing the concentration of CO2 in the waters and therefore the risk of further eruptions. Along with the Lake Monoun disaster two years earlier, it is one of only two recorded limnic eruptions in history.[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Monoun#Disaster Lake Monoun is a crater lake (maar) in West Province, Cameroon, that lies in the Oku Volcanic Field. On August 15, 1984, a limnic eruption occurred at the lake, which resulted in the release of a large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that killed 37 people. At first, the deaths remained unexplained, and causes such as terrorism were suspected. Further investigation and a similar event two years later at Lake Nyos led to the currently accepted explanation.[1] Disaster Lake Monoun located in the West Region of Cameroon Several people reported hearing a loud noise on August 15, 1984, around 22:30. A gas cloud reportedly emanated from a crater in the eastern part of the lake. The resulting deaths of residents in a low-lying area are believed to have occurred between 03:00 and dawn. The victims were said to have skin burns, which reports later clarified as "skin damage" such as discoloration. Survivors reported that the whitish, smoke-like cloud smelled bitter and acidic. Vegetation was flattened around the eastern part of the lake, probably by a large wave of up to 5 m (16 ft) height.[1]: 7  Although Lake Monoun is near the center of a volcanic field that includes at least 34 recent craters, the subsequent investigation found that the event was not caused by an eruption or sudden ejection of volcanic gas from the lake. Rather, emission of carbon dioxide in a limnic eruption is thought to be to blame. The cloud's smell and skin damage to victims were not fully explained. Some theories attribute the skin problems to a combination of preexisting conditions and routine postmortem effects like livor mortis, another medical interpretation says the body's metabolic rate was reduced inducing a severely restricted circulation in capillary vessels of the skin, resulting in necrosis,[1]: 6  although there is no clear consensus. Among the victims were some of the riders in a truck carrying twelve people. The truck's engine stopped working as it became starved of oxygen, and the people inside the truck got out and were killed. Two people sitting on top of the truck survived, because their elevated position allowed them to breathe – carbon dioxide is heavier than air (oxygen and nitrogen) which causes it to stay close to the ground. Two years later, on 21 August 1986, a similar and even more deadly event occurred at Lake Nyos, about 100 km (62 mi) north-northwest, killing 1,746 people and more than 3,000 livestock.[2] Along with Lake Nyos and Lake Kivu, Lake Monoun is one of three lakes in the world known to have high concentrations of gas dissolved deep below the surface and which have the right conditions for a limnic eruption. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Kivu Lake Kivu is one of the African Great Lakes.[2] It lies on the border between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, and is in the Albertine Rift, the western branch of the East African Rift. Lake Kivu empties into the Ruzizi River, which flows southwards into Lake Tanganyika.[3] In 1894, German explorer and officer Gustav Adolf von Götzen was the first European to discover the lake. Kivu lake shoreline at Gisenyi, Rwanda In the past, Lake Kivu drained toward the north, contributing to the White Nile. About 13,000 to 9,000 years ago, volcanic activity blocked Lake Kivu's outlet to the watershed of the Nile.[4] The volcanism produced mountains, including the Virungas, which rose between Lake Kivu and Lake Edward, to the north.[5] Water from Lake Kivu was then forced south down the Ruzizi. This, in turn, raised the level of Lake Tanganyika, which overflowed down the Lukuga River.[4] Lake Kivu is one of three lakes in the world, along with Lake Nyos and Lake Monoun, that undergo limnic eruptions (where overturn of deepwater stratified layers releases dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2). The lake's bottom also contains methane (CH4), meaning if a limnic eruption occurs, the lives of the two million people living nearby would be in danger.

Laki was also the only time I've heard of fluorine gas being released into the air.... fluorine is extremely deadly!

wow this is a very bad day in snowfall history for NY-- in 1969 we missed a 100 hr snowstorm that went just north of us and in 1989 we missed a 20 inch snowstorm that went just south of us (and this was a busted forecast, we were supposed to get 6-8 inches and only got virga.) looks like a day of extremes too, from mid 70s in 1985 (when it was -2 back in January) and in 2017 to single digits in 2015!

If that eruption was in 2014, could it have caused the extremely cold winter of 2014-15? That February was colder than anything I could have imagined in our current era....

what I'm wondering about is if what's happened since 2015-16 is a long term change, where we're seeing more DJF averages of 40 degrees or warmer than we did before. Going forward, is a DJF of 40 degrees or warmer the new normal? Because if it is, we're going to see a lot more of these winters than the good ones.

JFK radiates much better at night-- there's your concrete influence at the other places. JFK is located near a marsh and sandy soil, which are perfect for radiational cooling.

JFK radiates MUCH better than Central Park. Sometimes we're up to 10 degrees colder and below freezing while both NYC and LGA are above.

it's good for Nassau County outside of the northern parts, because most of Nassau County is very urban.

the last thing they should be doing is building more skyscrapers. NYC has become the city for the rich and for the rich only.

April 1982-- did you experience that one? That's my first clear snowstorm memory.

Thats what I hope for too-- what about something like Laki in Iceland again, do you think it's possible? Is Laki due for another eruption?

Yep, February was quite snowy in 2016. The time around the superbowl especially.

wow what a historic period, Don! so if you include the period from 1994-95 to 2001-02 it was 4 out of 8 winters. Having 1993-94 just before that period and the all time historic 1995-96 during that period, eased the pain a bit....

I found pictures from that season too, the snow happened with so much wind that the sides of my house were encased in snow! This was from the storm at the end of February, it's the latest storm to dump 20 inches of snow at NYC since March 1888! The anniversary is actually coming up-- it was on the 26th! From February 2010 to January 2011, there were three 20" snowstorms!

I was looking at pictures from the 2010-11 winter and wow did we have an amazing amount of snowcover that season..... looking at pictures from Boxing Day and also in February when the snowcover was at maximum extent there were several feet of snow in my backward which made everything seem level..... My two greatest memories of snowfall from that decade are that winter and January 2016

I was looking at pictures from the 2010-11 winter and wow did we have an amazing amount of snowcover that season..... looking at pictures from Boxing Day and also in February when the snowcover was at maximum extent there were several feet of snow in my backward which made everything seem level.....

Although JFK did not get back to back single digit winters, they already had this in the late 90s, right, Don? Was it 1997-98 and 1998-99 Don-- and again in 2001-02 to make it 3 years out of 5?

Yeah but barely... LGA is probably closest to where NYC should be, so neutralizing the undermeasurement would likely get NYC only to 10.2-10.8 inches

I take it you weren't in the area for January 2016?

I found these two parts interesting Over the last twenty years of the full forcing simulation, the weakening AMOC in the North Atlantic (Supplementary Fig. 4) may be linked to positive redistribution feedbacks that have been previously described in a coupled climate model40. In this feedback, a weakened AMOC decreases meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic, leading to a divergence of heat, cooler SSTs and increased heat uptake in the subpolar gyre, which in turn further weakens the AMOC40,41. It is unclear if this feedback mechanism is contributing to the North Atlantic changes in the full forcing simulation, as heat uptake north of the Equator decreases (–0.6 × 1021 J year−1) and heat transport increases (+0.6 × 1021 J year−1) over the last twenty years of the run, compared to the full period. .... In summary, our experiments emphasise that recent trends in Southern Ocean surface winds, surface air temperature and radiation have driven almost all of the globally integrated ocean warming of the past half century. Increased observational coverage over the Southern Ocean is therefore key to reconcile global surface heat fluxes, ocean heat uptake and heat content changes, as well as building increased confidence in climate models and climate change projections for the coming decades.

Yes, especially with how deep the heat extends. If you're talking about upwelling from increased TC activity, that only causes temporary changes to the temperature profile of the oceans; with how deep the heat is, in a couple of weeks the surface of the ocean is back to boiling.