LibertyBell

February 1983 January 1996 PD2 2003 January 2016

it would be nice to see it stall and not scoot out of here in 12 hours. we need at least a 24-36 hour snowstorm

no such thing as luck, this kind of thing has happened before many times, the strong jet is more to blame.

Tony how much snowfall did we get in the 1940 blizzard? This was also the anniversary of the 1899 blizzard and the 2016 below zero arctic outbreak! Lows: EWR: 0 (2016) NYC: -1 (2016) LGA: 1 (2016) JFK: 1 (2016) Historical: 1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow. 1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum) 1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum) 1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston.

January 2018? and January 2016 before that

also see the above, not all OP runs are the same, the 0z and 12z runs have higher verification scores because they use new upper air data

6z and 18z OP runs are the worst performing by far

I think people are more unsettled about this season in particular (as I wrote in the other post) because it was cold all three winter months and it still didn't snow.

I think people have an uneasy feeling, if we can't crack 20 inches of snowfall with all three DJF below normal temperatures, what will it take? Comparing this winter to 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 makes people more uneasy than anything. Was this supposed to be a historically snowy winter for us but climate change took it away from us? For the record I don't agree with that since we have found even colder winters with less snow from a supposedly snowy decade in the 60s, but it's still unsettling. *another factor is that the 1960s were a very dry decade, so maybe we are returning to that? But people said that cold and dry were extinct so....

first we worry about that asteroid in 2032, who knows maybe that will come close enough to neutralize the Pacific Jet?

west pac heatwaves near Japan and Indonesia

look up 1967-68 it's an interesting analog. There were some cold not snowy winters in the 60s in a predominantly -PNA along with the ones that were snowy. 1962-63 and 1967-68 were similar to this winter. In both cases the following winter was a snowy el nino winter, so let's see if we get an el nino next winter.

a second storm around the 28th?

it's especially weird because as a la nina after an el nino we should have had a strong juiced STJ and lots of snow 95-96 and 10-11 should have been strong analogs this winter

when will New York get its turn?

still think he could have jumped out of a window. I've done it before, it doesn't hurt.

how many hours of snow before the changeover? from what I looked at it will snow from noon to 8 pm before it changes over.

somehow this area is less snowy than Montauk which sticks out into the ocean and begs to changeover first.

Looks like the snow created its own hill.....

you mean the upside down model? does it have 81-21 inches for us too? or 42-21 inches?

00z models are famous for being the first to catch changes because they get new upper air data and they have the highest verification scores. In 1993-94 our storms always trended snowier/icier with the night time runs and they ended up being correct.

how many hours would this storm last as per the GFS? it looks like a 24+ hour storm based on the maps?

it should be named BUCKLEUP

Better six days out than ten days out. We just need one more day. When it gets to five days out, it becomes a serious threat.

it's a triple phaser