LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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the one with the historic arctic outbreak that defined that entire decade
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yep, 6z and 18z don't include the new upper air data -
likely isn't a certainty, likely to me means a 50% or higher probability. everything is a probability.... perhaps a chance of snow would be more accurate but maybe they wanted to convey a higher degree of likelihood. Our local channels are also doing it, Lee Goldberg just said the probabilities of significant snowfall have increased on WABC 7.
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about as often as you see rain likely or wind likely
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we had this in the late January 2011 storm too. We never changed over in the December 2003 storm but the mix line was 5 miles south of us on the first day of the storm (we had our best snowfall rates that day too.) we did change over to sleet and thundersleet in the late January 2011 snowstorm and to very heavy snow that night.
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ominous to me means dangerous.... do you foresee widespread power outages with this? we haven't discussed how high the winds will be.
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Congrats-- you just got NAM'ed for 3 inches of snow 3 inches of snow is what passes for getting NAM'ed this season!
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How many of these -5 AO blocks did we have during the 80s, Chris? February 1989? December 1989?
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this winter somewhat reminds me of 1988-89, a few of the 80s winters to be honest. the key seems to be when the deep south gets snow we do not.
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Yes I only like NW winds in the summer (dry and hot, love that low humidity heat!)
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The reason why the key to an HECS is to keep the SLP south of our latitude is that once north and east of here the wind backs around to the NW and that quickly terminates any and all snowfall (at least for here, NW is a very dry downsloping wind and the sun quickly comes out.) You want the wind to be NE as long as possible to maximize snowfall duration and that means the SLP has to stay south and east of us. Long duration snowfall isn't 12-18 hours, that's medium length, long duration is 24+ hours.
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that was the famous GFS *bad data* win when all the other models lost it
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don't we have that now too though? -AO and +NAO
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there are far more examples going the other way though, most notably January 1996 which the GFS/AVN had offshore and the Euro/NAM/ETA had hitting us from a week out.
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is that last panel showing sleet for us (not here but just east of here)? that might be a little too close
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Yes I remember a stat from years ago when the AO was negative the NAO was also negative 85% of the time. Has the correlation become less over time?
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the classic loop ! February 2010 (snowicane) was like that too. Two of those had a rain component for part of the storm (1888 and 2010), Boxing Day was best over New Jersey and 1978 was best over eastern LI and SNE.
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this map reads 16 for the city and 20-24 for us here SW LI 5 days out so it doesn't matter that much
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we dont actually want this to get to that latitude, if you look at maps of our previous widespread 20 inch plus events (February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016) they go due east once they reach the latitude of Delaware or southern NJ, it makes the snowfall of longer duration for us.
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Great position for us because it makes it snow longer. The great storms we all remember usually did not make it north of ACY in terms of the SLP.
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Thanks I forgot about the Long Island COOPs! I hope these are all still in operation, I was sad that the Mineola one shut down, it has recorded the highest temperatures on Long Island (I think they reached 109 and have the record for most number of 90 degree and 100 degree days on Long Island.)
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Looks like slightly more out this way in western Long Island.... from your description of the snowfall totals it sounds like the December 2009 snowstorm which had 10 inches at NYC and 15 inches at JFK with up to 24 inches on eastern Long Island.
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Tony are there no records from 1947-1948 and the December 1947 HECS from anywhere near JFK, perhaps a proximal location in the same area?
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too bad JFK just missed the epic season of 1947-48 and the historic blizzard that occurred in December 1947.... Did Newark also start in 1939 Tony?
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I'm glad these airports existed in 1940, Tony. JFK didn't exist yet did it (even as Idlewild)?
