LibertyBell
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
and maximizing our potential (or nearly so anyway) is why this winter should be rated a C-. If that band with the heavy snow was 30 miles north, it would go straight to B+ -
I think George's expression perfectly encapsulates the feeling lol.
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I mean it's already happening, the last two springs were very warm to hot and dry. I love it-- far fewer allergies for me. Now we just need to get rid of the rainy summers.
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there's no reason not to think we'll have a strong se ridge right through the spring and summer too.
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yes and very warm to hot springs with far fewer backdoor fronts.
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This seems fine, but the thing is we have had dry and very warm to hot springs the last 2 years, so I don't think it has anything to do with ENSO, because we hit 90+ last April in a la nina pattern. I just believe we're moving away from -nao, even in the spring time and back door fronts are becoming more rare here. Based on this and based on the last two springs, I strongly believe the better bet is to go for a very warm to hot and dry spring with multiple 90 degree days, both in April and May.
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it's also la nina after el ninos, I think all three of the big la nina winters (1995-96, 2010-11 and 2020-21) came after el ninos? I'm not sure about 2017-18 though....
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but why wouldn't it be like other strong el nino to la nina transitions and we torch all spring and summer don't need or want an nao block after March
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It's been talked about before, no one anywhere around Philly had 30 inches. There was also an erroneous report of 35 inches at Whitehead, NJ (not sure if I got the name right), which was thought to be the new state record for NJ, but that was invalided and the record went back to Cape May (of all places, the southernmost point of the state!) in the historic February 1899 arctic blizzard.
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It makes me wonder what it will take to change the Pacific if a strong el nino couldn't do it.
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It's why I like living near JFK, we measure better. Even LGA is way too commercial and packed densely, we actually have wetlands around here which keep it more of a natural climate, as opposed to the other three, which are much more artificial and surrounded by concrete.
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We already had this in January 2016.
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NYC undermeasured in January 1996 and Philadelphia overmeasured in that storm. It might be more like January 2016, which had a strong component of extra moisture.
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Yes, this is exactly what I'm looking at, a hot and dry summer like 1983, 1995, 2010.
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and had that been the case, Don, JFK would likely have been over 20" and have had its first double digit snowstorm in many years!
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Yes, the park can't be trusted for anything anymore-- not temperatures, wind speeds or snowfall measurements. JFK has had issues over the years too (mostly on extremely windy snowstorms where they undermeasure.) I thought the 93-94 snowfall totals were decent because it's the first time in my life I had seen a 50"+ winter. Back in the mid 90s no one ever told us what the other totals were, I only found those out a decade later.
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it's not even going to snow in the Poconos it'll probably be around 50 here on Friday
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I don't know about LGA, but I can see why the park total would be lower than both EWR and LGA, because that was a latitude based inland winter. I know for a fact they were several inches lower than EWR, because Newark killed it in the February events and the city changed over to rain. JFK's total of 47 inches was also pretty accurate, I measured 49 inches here on Long Island. If the park was off that winter, it wasn't by much.
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They measured over 53 inches in 1993-94 though which was in line with the other airports.
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Mansfield OH.... wow, they should have 3 feet of snow by now and they don't even have 8 inches!
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But snowfall measuring definitely was not a problem in during the prolific winters of 1993-94 and 1995-96 (although some say that the January 1996 blizzard was undermeasured at Central Park.) Temperature measurements also did not become a problem until the 2000s (after 2002 I'd say.)
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Thanks Don, when did LGA and EWR's period of record begin?
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Thanks, Don... a bit of a historical note regarding JFK airport. So, before it was called JFK, it was called Idlewild. In an old Twilight Zone episode Idlewild is mentioned as the landing spot for a transatlantic flight that never makes it to its destination. So since JFK/Idlewild's record keeping began in 1948, I wonder what its airport code was back then? Also, was 1948 a historically hot summer with 3-4 100 degree days and did JFK record a number of 100 degree days that summer? I remember reading somewhere that they might have.
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It's absolutely amazing with all the talk of NYC undermeasuring snow, they still beat all the other major east coast cities in snowfall this week.
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It's too bad we don't have a record from JFK from 1947-48.... likely all New York City locations received over 20 inches in that HECS. There were no issues with temperatures or mixing with that storm from what I recall from the historical record (would you agree with this Don?)
