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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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That was snowier than this winter just because of that one week in the middle of February when we had a 4 incher and a 6 incher here. JFK total of 12.8 that winter, so far 11.1 this winter.
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If our winters temporarily get colder like this one did then you'll know this is right. Not to the magnitude of what happened in the 70s and 80s but not as mild as the last few have been. 1981-82 was like an ice age winter..... crazy that we lived through April 1982, that will be very difficult to replicate.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yes! Freezing drizzle in February 2015 on an onshore breeze!- 475 replies
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Kind of reminds me of February 2015 when even Montauk was getting freezing drizzle on a southeasterly wind lol- 475 replies
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I thought 2010-11 was all snow, did we have an ice storm that winter? The February 2011 event maybe-- the one which gave Chicago a blizzard? I wish the NWS kept track of ice accumulations/accretions, that January 1994 event had to be one of our biggest ever, we had close to 2 inches of ice on everything here in SW Nassau County, JFK, never made it to freezing or above. Is there an ice total from that storm for JFK? And that was freezing rain on top of sleet on top of snow! I think we had a major ice storm back in 1973 also but don't remember anything about it.- 475 replies
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we need another strong el nino
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April 1982 and February 1983 were my first real snowstorm memories and I remember having snow up to my knees and wondering if this is what a real snowstorm is like lol.
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Yeah on the WINTER SEVERITY INDEX, this is considered an average winter for us (temperature, snowcover, snowfall are all factored in).
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Yeah, I'm not saying it's too warm to snow, I'm saying that a long term pattern of months of cold weather isn't conducive to large snowstorms. To get large snowstorms you also need thaws in between which lets the pattern reload otherwise the same thing keeps happening over and over.
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I was too young to even remember 1977-78 that clearly, so I had to wait for 1993-94 and 1995-96 when I was no longer a child lol. Time passes by -so- slowly at that age, each year is like a lifetime when you're little.
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in that period you have to hope for a winter like 1977-78 or 1993-94 or 1995-96. It's possible, but like only 10% of winters were like that back then.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
this is like a minor version of one of those 1993-94 ice storms, that happened quite frequently back then- 475 replies
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the beginning of March, finally.
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I don't think that's the way to get a lot of snow though. It's more like 2008-09. The way to get a lot of snow here is to get a lot of snow and then warmer weather, melt all that snow, and then get another big snowstorm. Even 2010-11 which did have a lot of snow without a thaw in between, was a winter that ended at the end of January. I like the other kind of winter much better, which is get a big snowstorm and then temperatures in the 50s and 60s and then another big snowstorm a month later.
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People criticize winters like 1966-67 and 1995-96 because of the two to three week thaws they had in January, well guess what, you need that kind of thaw to reload the pattern and get a lot of snow. People who think that having wall to wall cold is a good way to get a lot of snow don't have a clue about our climatology, having a thaw in the middle of winter is vital to a long snowfall season.
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Especially when there's no legit thaw in winter, which definitely isn't normal. Typically we should get at least one week in the 50s sometime in the middle of winter before the pattern reloads, we didn't get that at all this winter.
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Yeah this weird weather has lasted too long
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Chris do you think those highs near 60 in Brooklyn will verify (I see 59 in Brooklyn and 61 in Monmouth on that map).- 475 replies
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this is good, it should prevent suppression
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Look up 1965-66, Norfolk Virginia, 40 plus inches of snow while we had 20 something (a normal winter for us, a historic one for them.) Our epic winter came the following year, 1966-67, after a historically hot and dry summer, 4 days of 100+ with 107 at LGA, 104 at JFK and 103 at NYC. The real head scratcher is this is a la nina, when such things are not supposed to happen.
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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17
LibertyBell replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
7 pm is the ideal time to measure because the city flipped to a mix at 6:30- 475 replies