NJwx85

I'm not an expert but this shear profile doesn't look that unfavorable to me. If it gets strong enough, it might tilt the vortex some, but it's fairly aligned with the track.

This combined with the tornado threat are going to be major stories away from the immediate coast.

Milton is so far doing an excellent job of fighting off the shear. As someone else just eluded too, new deep convection (-80C or colder) cloud tops have begun wrapping around the Western half of the system. The ragged appearance this morning was likely due to a combination of the ERC and overall less favorable conditions. Additionally, dry air intrusion is currently minimal if at all. The models that weaken Milton the most on final approach have dry air wrapping around the entire Southeastern portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see if this happens. The 12z sounding out of Key West still shows a very moist environment.

Over the past hour or so there has been slight warming of the CDO in the SW quadrant but other than that the current presentation is prestine. This reminds me of Dorian at peak intensity.

The plane just got there. https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

The storm is tracking over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in early October. It's basically bath water either way.

12z HMON CAT 3 approaching landfall. Storm is intensifying on final approach too.

155mph - 925mb 2PM EST. Advisory.

Latest dropsonde. Just under Cat 5.

Yes, glad that recon is there to make on last pass. Does the next recon flight leave at 18z?

NHC increased to 150MPH with the latest advisory, pressure at 929mb, so slight strengthening.

Looking better now for sure even though there is still impingement on the NW side. Plenty of -80C tops rotating around the core.

FWIW, the 06z HAFS-A shows some dry air intrusions today and a significantly larger eye by tomorrow morning.

Recon just got another pass. Pressure is holding steady.

The hurricane is not currently being affected by dry air. We do have some Northwesterly shear that's forecasted to weaken as the day goes on. Conditions will be favorable for about the next 24 hours. As we speak, hot towers are going up in the Western eyewall. It's still getting its act together from the EWRC.

Also maintains intensity well. Strong winds make it as far inland as Orlando but it does confine most of the rain to the West and North of the center.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA42 Here's a link to the latest recon flight.

Dry air issues beginning on Wednesday completely destroy the inner core.

Next panel is wild. 897mb. 160kts.

The initialization pressure is a joke, but it does show deepening in the 12-24 hours leading up to landfall. 965mb 00z Wednesday, 949mb 00z Thursday. Minimal dry air issues.

Translates to about 140kts at the surface.

The 06z HWRF never brings the center South of 22N which is already off based on the latest advisory position of 21.7N.

Noticed that the HWRF is showing much less dry air intrusion on final approach than what was being modeled on Saturday.

Jim Cantore also said at the time that it was the strongest Cat 1 he had ever experienced.

I believe there were forecasts that high in Texas associated with Hurricane Harvey.