NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Nearly 200mph max winds if it verified.
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Latest forecast cone calls for maintaining major status through the end of the forecast period and shows a slight bend back to a more Westerly track around day 4.
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https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1699564711287681232?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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The developing system behind Lee is the new fly in the ointment. Too many moving parts right now to make a definitive fish call. Only out to 96hrs but the EPS has been trending stronger with the ridge over the Northeast and more amplified with the incoming trough.
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Looks like at least a handful of members with a threat to LI/New England and the Southeast coast.
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12z GEFS shifted West. Even have a cluster hitting Florida.
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The trough is much shallower compared to yesterdays 12Z GFS which dug much further South. The system gets close but is never really captured.
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By 144hrs it's in nearly the same position as 06z.
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Peak intensity in about 5-6 days at 915mb and 145kts. Landfall in about 13 days near OBX as a cat 3. Storm accelerates ENE and is eventually absorbed by the trough.
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This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates.
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https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1699233171601023038?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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We now have TS Lee.
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12z GFS was very similar.
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You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track. Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.
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Interaction/enhancement from the trough. Wind field expands and the storm only weakens slightly.
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Looks like a direct impact on SNE coming around day 11. This run is a day slower than most of the recent GFS runs.
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12z GFS will be West of the 06z run.
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The trough axis coming through the lakes is quite a bit further West compared to 00z at 168hrs.
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Latest radar scans clearly show a well definied eye has emerged. Here in Orange County things look to be trending towards low impact. Tornado watch is just to our West. No rain here since intense squall 4 hours ago.
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Just got hit with an outer band here. Poured for 5 miniutes and gusted to about 30mph. Location : Disney
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First SVR warning of the day here, just SW in Osceola County. Saw some good structure
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I’m down in Orlando for this one. We were supposed to fly back tomorrow morning but we moved it to Friday as a precaution. Only expecting some outer bands here but there’s at least a marginal tornado threat.
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The back edge of the rain shield is close to clearing the coast.
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So used to saying Atlantic with tropical, my bad.
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Looks like the enhancement from the coast along with the moisture feed off the Pacific has set up a bit further West then thought. Radar looking like quite a drenching even for LA.
