hlcater

FWIW(and I honestly think a decent bit) all three of the WRF models (ARW, NSSL and NMMB) are pretty juiced up with the precip in Iowa through the end of their runs. All of which eclipse 6" on a 10:1 map over a fairly large area. The fact that they all generally agree with each other(and the NAM) is worth more to me than any of the individual runs.

Are you SURE about that? That's within the realm of possibility sure, but unless they're going all in on the NAM, it's too early for that.

What is really awesome is some models(particularly the FV3) still have that darned moat in between the FGEN band and the southern stream system.

Winter storm watches hoisted for DVNs CWA. Not sure who all is included but Linn and Johnson are. EDIT: their entire CWA.

I'm just messing with you. The ICON is terrible. Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion.

You should really change your ways. I feel a certain sort of... enlightenment after I started regularly checking the ICON. Can't really explain the feeling.

You forgot to mention the ICON hoss. (it's solution is awful and so is it)

00z globals seems pretty ho-hum with regards to run to run change this evening. Because of that, I'm more inclined to side with them over the NAM. They didn't downtrend or really trend anywhere at all, just kinda held serve with 18/12z.

The 3km NAM agrees with its 12km counterpart. That's probably not worth a lot, but at least something.

I've never seen snow in the single digits, let alone a significant snowstorm like that run shows. Imma gonna go with a no on that particular setup. There may be a storm, but not with temps at 5 degrees above. Though the modeled baroclinic zone means business. Goes from 40 degrees to single digits in 150 miles.

and then we go in the freezer lol

The 18z GFS has a pretty extreme upcoming 8 days for those along/north of I70. With widespread 20+ inch totals between I90 and I80. 3 separate big systems.

18z GFS looks to be taking a moderate step to a more north/phased solution.

I noticed that as well. It went south but for seemingly different reasons. The rest of the guidance digs the wave into Mexico(or pretty close). The euro appears to my untrained eye to be very strung out and disorganized with the southern stream energy which would be in direct conflict with the rest of the 00z suite. If they dig more, one would assume that those models are stronger/more pronounced with the southern stream at 500mb to the point where they end up far enough south that they miss the northern stream and don't phase until later, if they do at all.

Which tends to be south. The snowfall mean moved south a good 50-75 miles unless I'm missing something.

The lakes/OV sub is the best place to be. No bias.

Shoulda let cyclone start it. He’s on fire with these lately. So if it busts... I’m holding you accountable.

Iowa still gets the moat in between the northern stream wave and southern stream. It is a bit wetter, but the moat is still very apparent.

Literally just last storm?

It's a bigger risk farther west I feel. The further east you are, the less the risk of that is.

I miss the DGEX

I’m not at all worried that the GFS ticked south and progressive because it’s a well known tendency with that particular model. It’s almost always too fast with strong/amped systems at this range and usually ends up correcting towards the slower consensus. What concerned me is that the rest of the 12z suite(so far) followed suit.

The 12z suite sucks across the board. Hopefully the Euro holds serve as every other model moved south and more progressive with the system.

Like normal, this isn't my map. So no, I cant give you the amounts farther east :(.