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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater
    GEFS likes this one as well
  2. hlcater
    Incredible watching an obviously sheared cyclone intensify anyways. Especially one that just finished an EWRC in the face of that shear. I really wasn’t 100% certain it’d be able to stabilize the core after the EWRC, let alone intensify at a fairly rapid pace.
  3. hlcater
    FL winds exceeding 140kts in the NE quad. SFMRs of 110kts. Pressures ~942. Probably see an upgrade to cat 4 here on the 5am update.
  4. hlcater
    The fact that the deepest convection is actually on the upshear side of the cyclone likely heralds intensification/resilience in the face of shear at least during the next 6-12 hours.
  5. hlcater
    That and there’s no one there to report waterspouts
  6. hlcater
    Correct. 15kts by 15z tomorrow and probably 20-25kts by landfall.
  7. hlcater
    Ian is bombing out right now and 115mph is probably a tad conservative. 4-5 hours over flat western Cuba is likely to slow or halt intensification, but probably not enough to hinder it much by tomorrow afternoon. EDIT: landfall declared, 110kts/952mb.
  8. hlcater
    This is not supported on the NOAA9 flight. Could be the storm shaking off dry air from earlier today.
  9. hlcater
    recon observations are generally consistent with a category 2 hurricane. ~966mb, 80-85kt SFMR, ~85-90kt FL wind. The data is full of holes, hence the ranges.
  10. hlcater
    That pocket is moving with the storm. At least it will for awhile
  11. hlcater
    The core is cleaner on cayman’s radar and MW passes. Seems justified to me. But we shall see.
  12. hlcater
    New flight suggests only modest pressure falls over the past few hours. Though, notably, the storm's organizational structure has improved, with 50kt winds now showing up immediately SE of the center in what is likely a nascent inner core.
  13. hlcater
  14. hlcater
    The fact that people still take ldub's bait is more amusing than ldub himself
  15. hlcater
    The synoptic configuration modeled in the 48 hours prior to landfall is definitely something more reminiscent of storms in the early 2000s and not recent years. That big longwave trough is gonna deposit a massive dry airmass in its wake that will likely impact the storm greatly.
  16. hlcater
    50ft waves will break offshore and be much less impressive. The surge is almost certain to inundate a good portion of the island though
  17. hlcater
    setup overall is very supportive of supercells and large hail with 0-6km shear potentially exceeding 60kts and MLLRs exceeding 7.5. Boundary is somewhat diffuse and not likely to be overforced. Not sold on tornadoes but will likely be out there.
  18. hlcater
    What does the BSR say?
  19. hlcater
    Erika part 2!!
  20. hlcater
    Conditions are only marginally conducive for the next several days. Shear isn't actually too bad with values fairly consistently between 10-15kts or so, but there's just an enormous amount of dry air hanging out in the central/tropical atlantic at the moment with frequent intrusions shown on both the GFS and EC. The moisture envelope improves somewhat once TD7 tracks near/north of the greater antilles.
  21. hlcater
    Wouldn't be surprised to see a run at major status. Water temps are marginal but there is still quite a bit of CAPE available due to cold air aloft. Outflow pattern is good/excellent over the next 72 hours.
  22. hlcater
    hype level 3/10 with potential to increase that in the coming days
  23. hlcater
    pretty weak sauce rn
  24. hlcater
    We really did get lucky over the past week or so. Far enough southeast to avoid 10-15" of rain, but far enough northeast to avoid expanding drought conditions. Zero complaints here.
  25. hlcater
    Looked for a second earlier this spring that we might escape our drought that’s been ongoing since 2019. However the next 10 days, and summer as a whole, is looking rather bleak for precip chances in the western sub.
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