Eskimo Joe

Couple of thoughts about this past event. These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree. 1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10. We usually bust on the low side of things. No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up. 2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event. It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch. The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event. 3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics. The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking. 4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night (Credit: @Rainshadow). The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

Some private labs slow or stop processing tests on the weekend.

OSPREY EOC...internal through the state but it's hard to share into local gov products. Having the AGOL feed is more ubiquitous. Thanks.

Is there a way the data can be published as a service for other programs to ingest it?

For MD, the two early indicators that we're peaking or coming off the peak are the "Hospitalizations" and "Released from Isolation". In those two boxes you will see a "Last 24 hours". Until the "Release from Isolation, Last 24 hours" numbers match or exceed the "Hospitalizations, Last 24 Hours" for 3 days, we aren't coming down.

You're going to see some re-analysis and back log reporting over the next 10 -17 days as we near the peak. The reporting system and staff area realllly being strained.

There is such a backlog of tests nationally, and under-testing that we're missing a fair number of symptomatic cases and probably missing fatalities.

Higher than Katrina (1,811), just shy of Pearl Harbor (2,403). We've been having a Katrina a day in this country for almost a week.

Yesterday in upper Montgomery County:

That Kent Cointy cell put down some damage east of Dover AFB per Delaware State OEM.

Interesting how the 12z HRRR actually nailed today's storm mode and motion. Everything after that was crapola from an HRRR perspective.

Hah!

Appears to be several eddies from Sudlersville, to Bridgetown on the eastern shore. Any of them look good for a quick spin up.

We definitely verified on the lower end of things but it was still a solid slight risk event. We were so close to this being a solid regionwide event though.

Solid line running through the eastern shore. Per Dover radar, there are several pixels of nearly 70kt winds just north of Starr, MD.

Delmarva and S NJ fully realizing convective potentialy and there's no inversion to prevent winds from mixing down. Should be some healthy wind reports out of three.

Some mesonet gusts of 68 to 72 mph in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties...

BWI M61mph gust.

Pics?

BWI ASOS about to take a cor of ~70kt winds head on.

100blk Ridge Point Pl., Gaithersburg, tree onto a porch, structural damage no injuries reported

Some legit serious wind just off the deck over Olney/Sandy Spring area...68kt!

70kt pixels over Rockville ~600ft off the ground.