Eskimo Joe

It seems to be a bit worse. The lack of weather data from commercial aircraft is really hampering NWP. The guidance for us yesterday had everyone getting towards 75 to 80 degrees south of DC and we're stuck in the mid 60s down to EZF at nearly 10:00 am.

Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover. It appears we're getting both. While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes.

Yea the gap is closing a bit more than I'd like to see.

Per some sky cams, there is some blue sky trying to work into Garrett County. It's definitely a bit more muted than i'd like for today, but it's not going to take much instability for an active afternoon to be realized.

^PWAT of 19?

Something must be up with SPCs site...none of the 12z RAOBs have been posted yet.

Yea they seem almost completely disinterested in anything north of RIC.

Really anxious for the 12z RAOB out of IAD.

Yes.

It might in fact be.

All the low levels clouds are clearing out pretty rapidly down here. Event some if the mid level junk is trying to break up.

Winds shifted to SW in Gaithersburg at our wx station.

Supercell composite up to 8 in SW VA, DCAPE around 700. Not too bad for 8:30 in the morning.

Here is a great video n how to read a TAF:

How often do you see a TAF like this:

I'm good with staying here as well for this event.

Got my eye on Charleston, WV radar. That's where our activity will be forming over the next 2 to 3 hours.

The latest one.

HRRR is lit for us later today. Tons of discrete stuff through 18/19z. Really hope this isn't a care of the HRRR being HRRible.

First few legit scans of the visible satellite indicate an area of legitimate clearing across western portion of West Virginia. A good sign.

For @Kmlwx et al, here is the SRM color palate that I use. SRM.pal

For those of you setting your SRM on your favorite radar program, the mean storm motion appears to be 235°, 55kt

My thoughts on today. For the record, I remain intrigued at the event and think that most of our action comes this afternoon. 1.) Convection this morning has deposited between 0.75" and 2" of rain in the area. A report from the Roseland area of Nelson County, VA shows some mudslide along Rt. 6 and nearly 6" of rain. This convection was mostly elevated and I suspect the 12z RAOB from IAD will reveal a bit of a temperature inversion which is why the winds are relatively quite. Once the sun gets up things should mix out a bit and gustier winds will begin to occur. 2.) The area of interest for everyone is this afternoon's storms currently over Kentucky. IR satellite shows an area of distinct clearing ahead of this and water vapor reveals a legit dry slot which should allow at least some sunshine to occur later this morning. Just how much and how long will determine how effectively we can get some surface based instability. It's interesting to see a potential little mesolow around 994 mb being analyzed by the SPC meso analysis page near the OH/KY/WV border. This might aid in development of the afternoon activity. 3.) With the morning rain, the ground is relatively saturated. It will not take much for trees to come down from this afternoon's activity or even from the synoptic scale winds.