raindancewx

Despite CPC kicking and screaming about calling this an El Nino, JFM will once again be at least +0.5C in an ONI sense, for the fourth trimester. If April doesn't fall below +0.5, it becomes an El Nino officially. CPC uses 27.2C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average in March. March should be around 27.8C. Since the numbers are rounded, April probably only needs to hit +0.35C for this to be considered an El Nino event, as that would be enough for +0.5C in FMA. Subsurface heat content for 100-180W is still around +0.5 in March too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6

Those of you who root for La Ninas need to find a way to get rid of that heat by 180W. I'm not sure it can be eroded fast enough by Fall for anything other than a weak La Nina.

Still hasn't hit 70F officially in Albuquerque - usually this about when we hit 75F for the first time. It's been warm though, just consistently slightly above average, so no 70s yet. April is still looking like a 3.5 month lag of the prior pattern, i.e. mid-Dec to mid-Jan. You do have to shove the cold/warmth north in light of the strengthening subtropical highs. But otherwise, looks similar to me. Close to what I had in my Spring Outlook too - I'm sure the CFS will change its mind rapidly though over the next week.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO PDO is now solidly negative. By the JISAO/Mantua method, it is -0.68. Lowest PDO value since October 2013. Long-term, that correlates to drier conditions in the SW, and warmer weather in the Eastern US, especially the south.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 Still an El Nino. Subsurface is around +0.5 for 100-180W down to 300m below the surface.

Euro has been trending toward a coherent MJO wave through the 'good' phases for interesting weather 1-2-3. In March, one is a strong wet signal (70% composite for NM shows up), and two is a strong cold signal. CPC agrees, and shows a cold wet pattern coming up mid month.

I know the models continue to show a La Nina, but Nino 4 remains at essentially record warmth, and the subsurface (100-180W, down to 200m-300m) is still very warm. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 My Spring analogs actually point to a pretty bad hurricane season, and they had March pretty warm centered on the middle of the US, which seems right. Will be interesting to see how hurricane season plays out.

CPC ONI page updated - +0.5C for DJF. Third period with El Nino conditions by ONI. March should be warm enough for JFM to be El Nino conditions too. Feb-Apr is the only question really - but I think we get it.

The European & GFS both have huge precipitation for New Mexico for the week starting 3/8. This is consistent with the big SOI crashes 10 days prior. Also, the pattern is now at 3.5 months of a lag to late November, when Albuquerque had near two inches of precipitation from 11/20-11/29. The pattern has been repeating pretty reliably at a 3.5 month since December looked like mid Aug-mid Sept. 14 point drop 2/26-2/28 and 2/27-2/28, 32 point drop 2/27-2/29, 19.5 point drop 2/28 to 3/1, 18 point drop 2/28-2/29 - those are all enormous by historical standards, and similar to the magnitude of the November crashes. The early November, 30 point one day crash preceded that crazy Blue Norther (around 11/12 I think?) by 10 days. 1 Mar 2020 1008.31 1007.85 -17.47 -3.09 -3.24 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76 26 Feb 2020 1013.13 1005.05 16.04 -1.72 -2.98

2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 QBO updated - still looks like 2002-03 and 2004-05. It's a 27.15C El Nino by the looks of it for winter - just about +0.55C to +0.60C by the standard CPC uses if the final Nino 3.4 value is 27.15C. The waters below Nino 3.4 are still warm, but the cold is definitely building around that area. Using the 1951-2010 means for Nino 3.4, the Oct-Feb period has been an El Nino. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 Winters are generally warm after El Ninos in the US along the West Coast, this year was no exception. More interesting to see the lack of cold in the blue zones, but that's likely because most El Ninos are followed by La Ninas. The pattern in February is pretty close to what I had for whole winter (warm coasts, cold interior NW, through the Rockies and southern/central plains, but not into MT, ND, SD) but unfortunately it came too late.

Subsurface for Dec-Feb, in the 100-180W zone at the equator, 0-300m below the surface, is like a blend of 1992-93 (x2), 2001-02 (x2), 2004-05, 2014-15. Of course, that blend featured a cold East/warm West. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The closest objective year for the subsurface was 1985-86 - a very hot West to merely warm East in March. But the heat core should be east of March 1986 in 2020. 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2014 0.54 0.15 0.83 Mean 0.34 0.52 0.59 2019 0.34 0.51 0.56

Canadian says La Nina develops in July. Trended colder for Nino 3.4 for the next year on the 3/1 update.

Canadian is hinting at a wet March for NM - lots of 'wetter than normal' right near the border of NM/TX/MX. That's usually a wet pattern near the boundaries of the cold/warm zones. Huge SOI drops recently support activity around 3/9-3/10, which is the 3.5 month lag for the late November storminess in the SW. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

Dew points bottomed out below -10 today in Albuquerque, similar to several air masses in late October & early-mid November. Literal 48 hour transition from mid-40s dew points to mid -10s dew points.

The CFS continues to depict a wet period in week two of March for NM/AZ. The storm Saturday-Sunday, timing wise works well as the repeat of the 11/6 storm, both warm wet systems. If something big is going to come through, I think there is support for it to be around 3/7. That's the 3.5 month lag of the Nov 20th storm. It also may link up well with the collapse of the Typhoon hitting Australia this week. A big SOI crash around 2/26 or 2/27 supports something in that time frame. Typhoons are often associated with the biggest crashes of the SOI.

I just threw in some numbers for 2019-20, but you can see, after the lowest annualized solar year (monthly sunspots July-June/12), the NAO goes negative in winter, at least in recent history it has. I don't think it's a coincidence that the annualized solar cycle effects have been showing up - very wet Northern Plains / cold West, relatively uninterrupted since 2016-17, which is when we fell below the magical 55 sunspot/year threshold I use for low-solar.

We're likely warm enough in February now (27.1C or so), with enough warmth below Nino 3.4 for this event to be classified as an El Nino. CPC uses 26.58C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 Long term, the near record warmth in Nino 4 in February, and very positive AO in February are opposite signals for US temperatures in March - should be interesting to watch how that plays out. The subsurface does imply Nino 4 may cool soon, fairly rapidly, in which case the AO may take over completely.

The repeat was inexact, with weaker colder and strong warmth, but its not surprising to me that the South had snow with this part of the pattern cycling through again, at the 3.5 month lag. Looks to me like we're about at November 6th in terms of how Fall progressed.

Waters below Nino 3.4 aren't as warm as last year, but I can't really see a rapid collapse in Nino 3.4 temperatures either, at least until April. Warmth in Nino 3.4 in March is a strong warm signal for the US later in Summer, especially August-September. Probably not as warm as last Summer though, which followed one of the warmest Nino 3.4 Springs on record, I think it was 7th since 1950 for warmth.

The local weather service is talking about record precipitable water for Saturday for the date for New Mexico. My winter outlook had 1.25" precipitation for Albuquerque for Dec-Feb. I have an experimental winter regression for El Ninos that said 2.10", +/-0.8" at 95% certainty for the winter. Currently 0.98", with 0.1-0.5" possible for the storm Saturday. Different formula had 0.47", +/-0.43" at 95% certainty for February - currently 0.38". Very curious to see how it all shakes out. Takes forever to test these seasonal regressions. Winter high is currently 49.4F here. Up to 89 lows <=32F for 10/1-2/21.

In an SOI sense, a big -SOI in Dec, near 0 SOI in Jan, and then a big -SOI in Feb is fairly unusual. This blend is broadly consistent with my analogs - with a warm West for March. 2012-13 is objectively the closest match in the past 100 years, but I prefer this blend. Year Dec Jan Feb 2019 -6.7 0.7 -7.3 1953 -5.8 5.0 -5.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1987 -5.8 -1.5 -6.2 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 Blend -7.1 0.6 -6.4 For the subsurface, 100-180W, 0-300m down, these are likely top matches for Dec-Feb: 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 Mean 0.34 0.50 0.48 2019 0.34 0.51 0.50 Take your pick for March - the second blend is much closer to the analogs I used for Spring (1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 for MAM), and March 2020 (1954, 2004, 2005). 1981 is actually a decent match for the subsurface too. March 2013 also looks fairly close to the left map, and it is the top SOI blend.

GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.

Weeklies continue to show decay in Nino 3.4. It's hard to say if it will last - the subsurface animation is down. My suspicion is it won't. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 ~Record positive Arctic Oscillation in February with near record warmth in Nino 4 is an interesting/unusual combination for February. The two are opposite temperature signals for the US in March in large areas of the US. On the monthly data sets, February 1990, 1992, 1995, 2015, 2019 are similar, but the AO wasn't super positive in January in these years generally. The Oct 16-Nov 15 pattern has shown up, shifted West for February, so I'd expect Nov 16-Dec 15 to show up for March, shifted in some way. The warm storm forecast for me late this week is on track with the warm/wet storm on November 6th, roughly a 3.5 month lag still, generally +104 days, +/-3 is verifying pretty well.

The SOI crashes of late imply a very active late February period. We'll see how that goes. My 3.5 month repeat idea means that there should be some kind of big, wet/warm storm around February 23, given the big/wet/warm storm in early November. The late November pattern is early March on that time scale. If it verifies anything close to Nov 16-Nov 30 for moisture, it has the potential to be an all time wet March for the Southwest. I'm fairly optimistic for March. Almost every day has been below freezing in Albuquerque for at least a little while, for three months now. That's not going to immediately shut off, so we've got a real shot at March snow. The data supports it - if you sort Oct 1 - Feb 15 lows <=32F by year into the cold half, and the warm half, 83 and less is warm, and 84 and more is cold for the last 88 years. So the odds are far more favorable for (light) snow in March in years with more frequent lows <=32F. We're at 86 for 10/1-2/15, one of the highest figures in the last 25 years, behind only 2009-10, and tied with 2000-01 and 1997-98. I don't buy a very snowy March though, we've only topped three inches one time in a low solar year, in over 30 low solar years. # <=32F >0" >=1" >=2" >=3" >=4" >=5" >=6" >83 Oct-2/15 84.09% 52.27% 34.09% 27.27% 13.64% 11.36% 9.09% <84 Oct-2/15 47.73% 27.27% 22.73% 9.09% 6.82% 2.27% 2.27% P-value 0.0002 0.0083 0.1186 0.0135 0.1456 0.0454 0.0836 Years with snow each month from Nov-Feb, like 2019-20, also heavily favor snow in March, compared to all other years. Almost 90% of years with snow each month Nov-Feb see snow in March, compared to only 60% in all other years.