raindancewx

CFS continues to trend to a very warm January for the East. Warm ~entire East January is not a common outcome in El Nino years. Since 1930, it has happened in January 1931, 1946, 1952, 1964, 1992, 1995, 1998. 2012-13 isn't an El Nino, but it had the +IOD and a similar (colder) subsurface trajectory Oct-Dec. 1954, 1964, 1993, 1995, 1998, 2013 as a January blend may be what it is trying to do. Most of these years already had a lot of Eastern warmth, more than this year, in December. So I remain skeptical of the CFS solution. If you shift the warmth it shows to the NW somewhat and weaken the warmth everywhere, it looks like the El Nino 'warm East' January composite, which may be where the CFS is going. Not what I forecast - but we'll see what happens. If you throw out January 1946 and 1964, the weakest "warm East January" analogs, the composite shifts east. The 1930-31 El Nino was an El Nino following an El Nino. 1994-95 followed a neutral/warm Neutral. So did 1991-92. 1997-98 & 1994-95 had very strong positive IOD fall patterns, like 2019. So it 'makes sense' as a blend. Except 1991-92, all low solar years - 60 sunspots/year or less. Warm AMO years too. Canadian will be out 12/31 - will be interesting to see what it shows. Looks like the weeklies on the CFS are pretty cold in the SW as my methods and the composites above show.

The 100-180W waters below the surface in the Tropical Pacific look like they'll come in around +0.3 for December 2019. Using the data, a blend of 1986, 1991, 2000, 2012, 2018 looks pretty close to 2019 for Oct-Dec. 100W-180W Oct Nov Dec 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1991 1.41 1.22 1.71 2000 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2000 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2012 0.40 0.34 -0.27 2018 1.59 1.36 1.06 Blend 0.60 0.35 0.26 2019 0.70 0.26 0.30 The blend looks somewhat like what the CFS is showing for January 2020, although it will change its mind 20+ times by 1/1/2020. Want to see the final number next week for the subsurface, but the blend is warm in the middle of the US, somewhat cooler east/west. The SOI has gone ballistic in recent days. A blend of Oct-Dec 1951 & 1957 is currently close, but should continue to change through 12/31. Those values of -20 for consecutive days are typically trouble for someone in the US. Year Oct Nov Dec 1957 -0.3 -11.0 -4.3 1951 -12.3 -8.5 -8.3 Blend -6.3 -9.8 -6.3 2019 -5.2 -9.5 -6.7 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 26 Dec 2019 1007.10 1008.85 -28.39 -6.48 -6.79 25 Dec 2019 1006.63 1008.30 -27.97 -5.81 -6.46 24 Dec 2019 1008.40 1008.85 -21.64 -5.33 -6.12 23 Dec 2019 1009.75 1007.95 -9.97 -4.97 -5.81 22 Dec 2019 1009.29 1007.80 -11.57 -4.77 -5.73 21 Dec 2019 1009.10 1008.15 -14.38 -4.47 -5.65 20 Dec 2019 1010.74 1008.65 -8.46 -4.38 -5.62 19 Dec 2019 1010.39 1008.00 -6.90 -4.76 -5.74 18 Dec 2019 1009.79 1007.60 -7.94 -5.44 -5.98 17 Dec 2019 1008.73 1007.60 -13.44 -6.09 -6.28 16 Dec 2019 1008.58 1007.75 -15.00 -5.94 -6.36 15 Dec 2019 1009.50 1008.65 -14.90 -5.38 -6.30 14 Dec 2019 1010.24 1008.70 -11.31 -4.87 -6.20 13 Dec 2019 1010.74 1007.75 -3.79 -4.71 -6.20 12 Dec 2019 1011.38 1007.85 -0.99 -4.92 -6.46 11 Dec 2019 1012.71 1008.00 5.14 -5.19 -6.77 10 Dec 2019 1012.35 1009.10 -2.44 -5.68 -7.10 9 Dec 2019 1012.01 1009.20 -4.72 -6.09 -7.20 8 Dec 2019 1013.30 1008.65 4.83 -6.30 -7.27 7 Dec 2019 1014.25 1009.15 7.16 -6.46 -7.56 6 Dec 2019 1014.24 1009.75 4.00 -6.17 -7.88 5 Dec 2019 1012.70 1010.55 -8.15 -6.53 -8.09 4 Dec 2019 1012.06 1009.10 -3.95 -7.41 -8.12 3 Dec 2019 1012.67 1007.20 9.08 -8.42 -8.21 2 Dec 2019 1012.38 1007.35 6.80 -9.07 -8.48 1 Dec 2019 1012.31 1007.80 4.10 -9.40 -8.74

The GFS has been sending a snow storm pretty deep into Mexico early in 2020. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The huge recent SOI drop suggests it is possible.

December looks fairly similar to anti-1997, with 1940/1976 working fairly well as a blend so far. I doubt January will be as cold as the 1941/1977 blend or anti-1998 would imply. Long term, a positive NAO in December is a pretty strong warm signal for the mid-south in January. NAO is around +1 for December so far. I do think there are some good cold shots in January, but we'll see. A negative SOI December is a weak warm signal for the Northern half of the US in January too, not much of a cold signal anywhere though.

GFS still has storm timing faster later this week. The big SOI drop 12/22-12/24 ties in fairly well with the storm shown around 1/3 on the GFS, despite it being super far out.

Looks good - huge SOI drop 12/22-12/24 supports a storm around 1/3 or 1/4 in the SW. GFS is already showing something in that time frame, as far out as it is. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Dec 2019 1008.40 1008.85 -21.64 -5.33 -6.12 23 Dec 2019 1009.75 1007.95 -9.97 -4.97 -5.81 22 Dec 2019 1009.29 1007.80 -11.57 -4.77 -5.73

Euro & GFS don't seem to be able to agree on timing or duration for the late week system. The GFS originally had a big snow event for the Rio Grande Valley. Now the Euro does, and the GFS has rain. They don't seem to agree on the backdoor cold-front. Both do show a lot of precipitation coming in though, so someone will get a lot of snow. The GFS also has the storm much earlier, while the Euro is later. I think the ensemble means are in between. This is the 5 am run of the Euro today, from the Pivotal site today at 11 am. This is almost all within ~5 days now if the timing hasn't dramatically changed.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 The little area of coolness below Nino 3 is keeping that zone relatively cool compared to the others. Outside chance we'll have a White Christmas here, and the Euro has more to follow. Albuquerque would be around 9 inches of snow for the season if the Euro was right through the end of December. Solutions will continue to change. The models do have a lot of rain and snow coming for the SW, so that's promising. The Jun-Nov / July-Dec period remains very similar to 1948 here for average highs - will be interesting to see if January sees some kind of incredible cold dump into the West like January 1949. December looks like it will finish near average here for temperatures, good start for the winter if the moisture verifies. My winter forecast (from Oct - see earlier in the thread) had a blend of 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018 for winter, but in December, I warmed the US 2F everywhere since the blend was too cold in Nino 4 (28.6C, observed is currently near 29.5C). The raw high blend in ABQ is 46.6F for 12/1-12/23, warmed up 2F, it goes to 48.6F, and my observed high is 49.4F for 12/1-12/23. I'm going to be too cold for Montana and the Southern half of the Central US, but once the rest of the month is baked in, should be pretty close elsewhere. For comparison, the blend on its own has been pretty good in the NE. Boston's 12/1-12/23 high is 42.9F, compared to 43.0F in the blend, and 11.5 inches of snow v. the blend forecast of 8.5 inches for December.

GFS is trying to trend to a good snow event for Albuquerque on Friday. The European doesn't really have it - just rain.

The next update this week should see the cold waters below Nino 3 fill in warmer. SOI has been consistently negative since mid-month. Around -4 for December last I checked.

PDO jumped to +0.15 in Nov. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Similar value to last November. Opposite Dec so far though. About 2F of the warmth here has burned off since 12/16, with the highs around 40 and cold mornings.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ The recent MEI, with most similar years since 1979. A lot of the top SOI matches are similar on the old MEI too. YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND 1979 0.47 0.26 -0.08 0.20 0.27 -0.15 -0.14 0.44 0.38 0.24 0.52 0.65 1980 0.35 0.19 0.41 0.59 0.55 0.62 0.62 0.15 0.20 0.09 -0.03 -0.06 1981 -0.33 -0.24 0.33 0.41 -0.27 -0.60 -0.51 -0.31 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22 -0.16 1982 -0.38 -0.47 -0.28 -0.34 -0.03 0.78 1.79 2.02 1.81 1.93 2.28 2.48 1983 2.57 2.74 2.68 2.79 2.89 2.02 0.75 -0.11 -0.41 -0.43 -0.43 -0.43 1984 -0.50 -0.52 -0.11 0.09 -0.47 -0.72 -0.31 -0.15 -0.11 -0.15 -0.58 -0.31 1985 -0.25 -0.58 -0.60 -0.76 -1.22 -0.57 -0.02 -0.37 -0.44 -0.04 0.00 -0.34 1986 -0.36 -0.30 -0.39 -0.52 -0.18 0.12 0.56 1.05 1.31 0.57 0.65 1.06 1987 0.98 1.08 1.47 1.66 1.91 2.02 1.92 1.48 1.23 1.13 0.85 0.75 1988 0.59 0.31 0.19 -0.01 -0.36 -1.19 -1.77 -1.79 -1.77 -1.54 -1.61 -1.49 1989 -1.09 -1.06 -1.20 -1.09 -1.04 -1.02 -1.12 -0.73 -0.61 -0.56 -0.33 -0.02 1990 0.12 0.43 0.61 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.17 0.06 0.21 -0.06 0.12 0.28 1991 0.16 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.35 0.89 0.88 0.42 0.62 1.09 1.17 1.29 1992 1.70 1.59 1.72 1.98 1.69 1.58 0.76 0.08 0.50 0.81 0.73 0.78 1993 0.83 0.93 0.78 0.98 1.48 1.50 0.91 0.62 0.64 0.95 0.70 0.26 1994 0.02 -0.17 -0.21 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.88 0.84 1.06 1.47 0.99 0.87 1995 0.77 0.48 0.14 0.18 0.16 -0.00 -0.25 -0.65 -0.86 -0.65 -0.67 -0.82 1996 -0.83 -0.81 -0.64 -0.69 -0.83 -0.90 -0.76 -0.60 -0.26 -0.31 -0.30 -0.45 1997 -0.66 -0.72 -0.29 0.17 0.68 2.25 2.11 2.20 2.17 2.01 2.06 2.03 1998 2.23 2.43 2.27 2.55 2.26 0.37 -1.42 -1.74 -1.31 -1.21 -1.30 -1.25 1999 -1.26 -1.18 -1.11 -1.17 -1.36 -1.26 -1.19 -1.07 -1.17 -1.31 -1.33 -1.43 2000 -1.26 -1.27 -1.36 -0.93 -0.97 -1.14 -0.58 -0.08 -0.36 -0.55 -0.91 -0.80 2001 -0.82 -0.87 -0.79 -0.61 -0.58 -0.71 -0.02 0.34 -0.07 -0.25 -0.32 0.02 2002 0.07 -0.26 -0.20 -0.36 -0.10 0.40 0.42 0.97 0.84 0.79 0.76 0.86 2003 0.80 0.62 0.53 -0.08 -0.57 -0.07 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.26 0.29 0.10 2004 0.16 -0.04 -0.44 -0.23 -0.44 -0.34 0.43 0.74 0.54 0.34 0.51 0.51 2005 0.08 0.61 0.82 0.13 0.18 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 -0.05 -0.71 -0.75 -0.73 2006 -0.68 -0.50 -0.61 -0.84 -0.43 -0.23 0.11 0.56 0.63 0.68 0.90 0.59 2007 0.62 0.39 -0.22 -0.36 -0.44 -0.86 -0.77 -0.93 -1.10 -1.14 -1.13 -1.22 2008 -1.08 -1.27 -1.54 -1.13 -0.98 -0.86 -0.87 -1.08 -1.07 -1.12 -1.05 -1.05 2009 -1.01 -0.85 -0.94 -0.81 -0.72 -0.06 0.49 0.52 0.39 0.56 1.05 0.96 2010 0.93 1.28 1.31 0.49 -0.17 -1.33 -2.43 -2.40 -2.28 -2.18 -2.04 -1.91 2011 -1.83 -1.63 -1.79 -1.74 -1.29 -1.08 -0.86 -0.88 -1.16 -1.37 -1.21 -1.24 2012 -1.08 -0.67 -0.59 -0.43 -0.35 -0.28 0.30 -0.06 -0.32 -0.22 -0.07 -0.07 2013 -0.05 -0.07 -0.14 -0.37 -0.71 -1.18 -0.85 -0.50 -0.38 -0.16 -0.18 -0.35 2014 -0.51 -0.43 -0.08 -0.16 -0.18 -0.01 0.32 0.16 -0.15 0.07 0.34 0.34 2015 0.23 0.05 0.13 0.35 0.96 1.85 1.73 1.92 2.21 2.11 1.88 1.90 2016 1.94 1.81 1.31 1.33 1.26 0.36 -0.51 -0.28 -0.34 -0.60 -0.51 -0.34 2017 -0.41 -0.41 -0.58 -0.21 0.17 -0.29 -0.70 -0.77 -0.80 -0.63 -0.63 -0.73 2018 -0.77 -0.70 -0.79 -1.29 -0.91 -0.51 -0.17 0.36 0.52 0.41 0.26 0.13 2019 0.08 0.52 0.77 0.33 0.26 0.35 0.24 0.30 0.15 0.27 0.45

On the weekly ENSO update, subsurface heat recovered somewhat this week. The wave of heat below the surface is expanding east in the Nino zones. We're somewhat close to 2003, 2004, 2014 in recent years, but without the super positive PDO of 2014-15 and high to very high solar in those years. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 17NOV2004 22.2 0.5 25.5 0.5 27.3 0.7 29.6 1.0 24NOV2004 21.9 0.0 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.7 29.5 1.0 01DEC2004 22.4 0.2 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 08DEC2004 22.3-0.2 25.7 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.8 19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9 26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 The SOI has corrected somewhat negative in recent days. Will be interesting to see how it finishes December. Back to -1.5 for 12/1-12/16. For the moment, a blend of Oct-Dec 1936, 1944, 2014 is a good match for the SOI. Will be interesting to see if the SOI finishes near -8 by the end of the month. Year Oct Nov Dec 2014 -8.2 -8.0 -7.6 1936 0.3 -13.8 -0.7 1944 -8.5 -6.5 2.9 Blend -5.5 -9.4 -1.8 2019 -5.2 -9.5 -1.5

The GFS is essentially repeating the late Nov storm sequence for New Mexico in late December on the current run. Most runs since Dec 10 have shown a storm for NM 12/24-12/25, and then more after in the more recent runs. The high for winter here is currently 52.5F through 12/15, 1/6th of winter complete. It's very difficult historically to get above average snowfall here Oct-May when the winter high is above 51.5F - but it should drop quite a bit over the next few days, and the signal for a wet January is quite strong. It's interesting though, you guys don't seem to be included in the wet January.

Weird thing to say, but more optimistic for January than December overall, with the caveat that the 12/26-12/30 period is the most likely major storm period for NM. Models have been showing something 12/24-12/25 for New Mexico. I actually buy it - there is SOI support (10+ point drop w/in two days, 10 days out) for a major storm in that window, and the drops are more substantial than the small drops for 12/15 and 12/20. The late November storms had a 20 pt drop in ONE day, these are 10-15 point drops in two days, so doesn't look as potent as the late November stuff.

Looking back through my records, I have an elaborate "difference in proportions" analog system that tries to match overall conditions in Summer to those that precede snowy conditions in winter, and then score how likely a given outcome. The things I try to match are these, for Albuquerque, using about 90-years of snow data: >=3" Snow in March >=3" Snow in February >=3" Snow in January >=3" Snow in December >=3" Snow 'off-season', i.e. Nov or Apr >=10" in January-May >=6" in February-May Each of eight conditions in Summer is scored as -1, 0, or +1, with +1 ideal for snow overall, and -1 bad. Last year, the observed conditions in the Summer were not a great match for any of >=3" Snow ideals, and they were not a good match for a lot of snow late. This year is completely different. In essence, the scoring can be a total match (~0), or a total miss (~13) to conditions that are ideal historically. Last year, December had a Score=4 for 3"+ of snow, and that did happen, with 3.2" snow (and then we also topped 3" in February). All the other months were worse matches than December though. This year, Nov/Apr >=3" had a score of 2.5. Real strong match. We had 4.0" in November. This year, January has a score of 4, and there is a strong signal for a wet January at least. More importantly, there is a score of 3 for Jan-May seeing 10" of snow. Conditions in Summer were not a good match to heavy snow years in Dec/Feb/Mar. Will be interesting to see how we'd get to that 10"+ in Jan-May if it were to verify, given that April is somewhat favored too.

We'll have to see things shake out by 12/31, but tentative top SOI matches for Oct/Nov/Dec are a really interesting set of years. SOI Oct Nov Dec 2019 -5.2 -9.5 2.0 1932 -4.1 -4.6 1.8 1944 -8.5 -6.5 2.9 1985 -5.3 -1.5 0.8 1968 -1.6 -3.4 0.3 1978 -5.3 -2.1 -2.2 2016 -4.5 0.6 0.4 You can mimic the current result almost exactly by blending 1936 & 1944. SOI Oct Nov Dec 1944 -8.5 -6.5 +2.9 1936 0.3 -13.8 -0.7 Mean -4.1 -10.2 +1.1 2019 -5.2 -9.5 +2.0 Remember the October pattern? That blend says it is back. It's actually very difficult to get the SOI to match the values above given the huge Nov/Dec shift. Last year was +0.6 to +9.1, pretty different for Nov-Dec. The six year blend from above looks like a de-amplified version of January 1937/1945. I'm not suggesting this is "correct", and it isn't a forecast, since we don't know the December SOI yet. But it ~kind of looks like the Jamstec update...and that's interesting.

This setup reminds me more of a January pattern, at least from what I've seen over the past 10 years or so.

The latest Jamstec has trended to an El Nino again, and has it continuing for a while, like in the Euro update. The strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast to rapidly collapse, which may be happening now. If you blend the cold position in the US on the Nov map and the Dec map for US Winter, that's where I had the cold going for the overall period. Interior West, not getting into the South or NE, but a lot of the US slightly cold. It's taken a while but at least in the Northern Plains, the cold is winning out in December now in the middle of the US. Bismarck is around 2-3F below average, and the NE/SE anomalies have burned off a lot too already. The Canadian/CFS had the Northern Plains very warm for the month...which looks fairly wrong already, at least for 12/1-12/12.

My stuff works better seasonally then for months for snow. Look at Boston last year: Actual Analog Blend (1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 x2, 2006-07) Nov 0.1" (0.0+1.0+3.5+0.1+0.1+0.0)/6 = 0.8" Dec 0.1" (0.0+17.2+3.4+1.5+1.5+0.8)/6 = 4.1" Jan 2.1" (19.2+23.2+24.3+4.4+4.4+1.0)/6 = 12.8" Feb 11.6" (1.9+5.9+3.7+8.5+8.5+4.6)/6 = 5.5" Mar 13.5" (0.4+10.7+3.5+0.4+0.4+10.2)/6 = 4.3" Apr 0.0" (2.1+0.0+4.1+0.0+0.0+0.5) / 6 = 1.2" N-A 27.4" (0.8+4.1+12.8+5.5+4.3+1.2) = 28.7" At any given moment before the final total, it was out by 10" or so at some points. The math will snap toward the analog blend if the blend is right idea. This is what I had for Boston, in the raw blend - for 2019-20. Idea in the analogs was a lot of NE cities start strong then fade a lot late. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Season 1953-1954 0 0 0 19.2 1.9 0.4 2.1 0 23.6 1953-1954 0 0 0 19.2 1.9 0.4 2.1 0 23.6 1983-1984 0 0 2.6 21.1 0.3 19 0 0 43 1983-1984 0 0 2.6 21.1 0.3 19 0 0 43 1992-1993 0 0.6 9.7 12.9 19.6 38.9 2.2 0 83.9 1995-1996 0 4.1 24.1 39.8 15.5 16.8 7.3 0 107.6 2009-2010 0.1 0 15.2 13.2 7 0.2 0 0 35.7 2009-2010 0.1 0 15.2 13.2 7 0.2 0 0 35.7 2009-2010 0.1 0 15.2 13.2 7 0.2 0 0 35.7 2018-2019 0 0.1 0.1 2.1 11.6 13.5 T 0 27.4 Blend 0.0 0.5 8.5 17.5 7.2 10.9 1.5 0.0 45.9

Euro trended warmer, finally, for Nino 3.4 in the December update. No members below -0.5C through July now. I like the high end of the plume through February, then transitioning toward the low end in Spring but we'll see. It did well last December -

Looking at local data, I'm expecting the type of unusual pattern in the Southwest US in the second half of November 2019, with tropical moisture coming up from the subtropical jet, but trailing, and not quite phasing with strong Northern stream storms, to return in January. I have a couple reasons for this. The SOI favors two paths on the correlation map - not one given the space in Arizona and Northern NM for the blue areas. The N. California and SE path for the Northern Branch looks similar to the Front Range blizzard path in late November. The Moisture from Baja stream NE across NM, but not really hitting the ski resorts in the north, is the path that brought the Rio Grande Valley a lot of snow - 4-8" as low as 4,000 feet. Statistically, the odds of heavy precipitation in November not making a difference in January precipitation are remote. The p-value is for the difference in proportions test hypothesis that the two groups are the same. You can think of the odds as the likelihood the groups are the same - anything below 0.05 (5.0%) you reject as being the same. Look at January - it's very unlikely that the big Novembers are not an indicator of a difference in January, which supports the SOI map. You can see the average for January after a very wet November is 0.78", more than double the long-term average, and you have roughly 3:1 odds that January will be wet after a top November for moisture. Looking even deeper, the top 11 wettest Novembers have several January clusters for precipitation for very wet days. I think these days will provide the opportunities for the late Nov-early Dec storms to repeat - heavy snow New England and maybe further into the NE or South this time, heavy snow Colorado front range and Rio Grande Valley, maybe further down to El Paso or Chihuahua this time. The most common day is January 4 in the top November years. Overall, Jan 4-5, 11-12,17-20, and 29 look like the windows for big storms like in late November. Once this window closes, it was roughly 11/21-12/4 before, I think the El Nino warm/signal will change in some way and the US will go into some kind of warm spell, kind of like early December was. I think the trigger was the MJO dying after being in phase 8, so that's probably an indicator that this part of the cycle is coming back. One mechanism for this cycle not coming back after January is I don't think the SOI is going to be able to drop 30 points in a day or two, like in November, with the Indian Ocean Dipole making low pressure difficult to achieve over Australia. Once that high-enhancement is gone, the pressure pattern over Australia should be much more stable. For now, the Indian Ocean dipole is probably still powerful to burp out another huge trade-wind reversal one-three times by Jan 10 or Jan 20.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 Nino 3.4 / 3 should recover some in the coming weeks. My criteria for El Nino is 27.0C for DJF, and at least six months more than +0.5C above the 1951-2010 average for July-June. So far we have two of six (Oct-Nov) - but I'll re-classify it in my data set if we remain under 27.0C for the winter average. Local NWS thinks the pattern may do usual warm ENSO December thing later in the month. Dry northwest flow aloft returns for Thursday and Friday ahead of a a strong 190kt East Asian jet breaking off over the EPAC and nosing into the western U.S. during the weekend. GFS and ECWMF agree that rain with snow above 7000 feet or so breaks out across the northern quarter of NM or so sometime Saturday, continuing at times through Monday. It`s still way too early to nail down much at this point but this storm system/strong jet (135-140kt over northern NM Saturday) has the potential to drop heavy snow over the northwest highlands, Tusas Mountains and northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains over the weekend and into early next week. This pattern typically sets the stage for a positive PNA (think anomalous UL high pressure over/north of AK) and frequent troughs/lows moving into the western U.S. Let`s hope.

That system has SOI support - I think it may drift south from where it is depicted currently by 12/15 though. But you had a big SOI drop 12/3-12/5. So there should be something in the "SW domain" - I look for a low between 30-37N, 103-118W after those big drops. Snow pack / precip generally has been very low in Washington and SW Canada - part of me thinks that will snap hard the other way later, probably sometime in Feb-Apr if it happens.

Nino 4 (160E-150W) has really warmed up again back down to 200m over the last month. Nino 3.4 should re-warm too. It looks like the cold and warm water are both pushing East, so the Modoki look from Fall should come back. After that, probably a rapid collapse toward a La Nina sometime in Spring? Models have been showing that lately. It looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole look is collapsing or at least reversing too - rapid cooling of the waters by East Africa / Madagascar and rapid warming of the waters by Indonesia. Ideal +IOD