raindancewx

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 Given how warm the subsurface is below Nino 3.4, you have to expect a warmer Nino 3.4 in February, above the average +0.2C warming that takes place from Jan to Feb. The western subsurface does look pretty cold, so the models showing +0.5C to +0.8C in Nino 3.4 through Feb/Mar and then a La Nina next winter are probably right. I'm fairly confident that the periods of extreme Eastern warmth in the Fall/Winter are going to show up again in the Spring. Will be interesting to see how that evolves. I'll link my Spring Forecast here around February 10th if anyone is curious. Winter to date has looked a lot like 1953-54, 2003-04, 2004-05 as a blend warmed up a degree, with the heat core somewhat SE, and it's not a bad SST match either in the Nino zones.

The SOI for January is back down to -0.6. Right now, the top blend for February is 1937, 1993, 2005. Will change by the end of the month...but it's not likely to be super positive or negative this month. SOI Nov Dec Jan 1936 -13.8 -0.7 8.8 2004 -7.7 -10.1 1.2 1992 -6.9 -6.6 -9.2 Blend -9.5 -5.8 0.3 2019 -9.5 -6.7 -0.6 Cold West / average East pattern if the SOI finishes around 0 in January. The top six objective matches are 2004-05, 1939-40, 1967-68, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1963-64.

My formula attempts to account for the ratio using the (40-Temp) portion. The colder it is, if you look historically, the less impact the East wind thing has. I've done a lot of testing on that formula - it tends to be within an inch of what it reported at the airport. This is one the better write ups about it. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/011/index.html For the November storm, the numbers were like this - should say the 'precip' value is a double weighted 3-km NAM, double weighted Euro, and single weighted GFS value for snow divided by five, i.e. 'modeled precip'. I know you have to look at soundings to make sure there is nothing weird going on, but assuming there isn't, you can use it pretty cleanly. Snow = (40-Temp)x(Precip as Snow*(1-EW/50) Snow = (40-30)x(0.6*(1-((1020+1024)-(1017x2))/((50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-(44-34)/(50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-(10/50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-0.2) Snow = (0.6) x (0.8) Snow = 4.8". The airport got 4 inches.

The official site had 0.15" as snow, all freezing or below, and reported 0.7". I had 1.5", and my co-workers on the west-side of town had around 3 inches. The airport has had 5.3" to date, which is above the average through 1/16. I've had 7.5" in November, 0.3" in December, and 2.0" total in January, about 10 inches total - same elevation as the airport, due north, with some snow shadowing here too. We do get more snow up here, but I still find their totals to be kind of funky most of the time. For the airport totals I try to use this formula: Snow = (40-Temp)x(Precip as Snow*(1-EW/50), where East Wind is air pressure in MB in Amarillo + air pressure in Colorado Springs - ABQ air pressure x2 In this case... Snow = (40 - 31) x (0.15)*(1-(9/50) = Snow = (9) x (0.15)*(0.82) Snow = 1.1 inches The East wind score went from roughly 14 to 5 over the duration of the event where at least parts of the city were getting snow. My assumptions had been more like this for the airport going in - Snow = (40 - 34) x (0.25) x (1-(5/50) = 6 x 0.25 x 0.9 = 1.4 I don't doubt they got around an inch, just seems a touch low for 0.15" liquid equivalent, with temperatures below freezing when all of it accumulated.

I think this El Nino may last deep into 2020, and then turn into a La Nina that peaks late in winter 2020-21 or early in Spring 2021. I'm expecting the cold water below the surface to end the El Nino from West to East, meaning we'll have Modoki La Nina / East-based El Nino forcing for a time later in 2020 (colder Nino 4, warmer Nino 3.4/1.2)

The thing that drives me nuts about Albuquerque is the airport does BS-y things with snow numbers, and precip in general. So they reported 0.09" of liquid equivalent as snow through about 5 pm. That number somehow is only 0.2 inches of snow. Despite temperatures 30-32F the entire period of accumulating snow. It was almost 60 yesterday, but it seems like it should be at least 0.5 inches. Visibility was under 2 miles for much of the snow Most of the city likely got far more precipitation too, although that's partly a snow shadowing issue. They'll probably update the snow total to something more reasonable later. The model precip was way overdone for sure, some of the models had 0.3-0.7" in the city, with half as snow. It's more like a 0.1-0.3" storm I'd say. The band in Arizona is likely to bring some additional precipitation, probably as snow. I've got one inch at my house a 6 pm, which is consistent with about 0.10" liquid so far.

I'm a big fan of the 3-km NAM at this range. Let's hope it verifies. Main issue for me will be if it gets cold enough. Dew points are low teens. But still in the upper 40s at almost 10 pm which is not ideal. I think we'd wet bulb to 36F or so at the moment, not quite cold enough/dry enough for snow. But the cold does seem to making the climb over the 7,000 pass into the Rio Grande Valley.

Winter Weather Advisory for me means Albuquerque should be ahead of the combined snow total for NYC, Philly, Baltimore & DC again if the advisory verifies. Currently pretty close - 4.6" v. 5.0". The new Jamstec has El Nino / near El Nino conditions lasting for another full year, with an extremely hot Spring for the US. The ideal El Nino Modoki look in Sep-October for severe eastern cold has crashed pretty hard since, which coincides well with the rapid warm up in the East since the severely cold start to November.

Looks like a nice storm for New Mexico.

Starting to look like a good precipitation event for New Mexico on Thursday. Lots of mountain snow. Might get some snow in the valleys too if the 12-km NAM is right.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 On the weekly update, subsurface warmth is actually higher than last January now (+0.7 and rising) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf SOI has been positive but is correcting negative. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Jan 2020 1009.89 1005.85 -2.68 -5.49 -5.34 12 Jan 2020 1009.84 1005.45 -1.03 -5.78 -5.46 11 Jan 2020 1010.04 1004.25 5.56 -5.87 -5.52 10 Jan 2020 1011.34 1003.85 13.57 -6.09 -5.49 9 Jan 2020 1011.90 1005.60 7.97 -6.37 -5.59 8 Jan 2020 1011.88 1006.40 4.10 -6.72 -5.72 7 Jan 2020 1012.42 1006.75 5.00 -7.01 -5.90 6 Jan 2020 1014.76 1006.20 18.61 -7.02 -6.06 5 Jan 2020 1015.24 1006.70 18.52 -7.40 -6.28 4 Jan 2020 1014.00 1006.95 11.50 -7.88 -6.57 3 Jan 2020 1011.65 1008.60 -7.34 -8.54 -6.82 2 Jan 2020 1011.06 1010.15 -17.42 -8.42 -6.97 1 Jan 2020 1011.94 1008.85 -7.16 -7.54 -6.99

GFS/Euro are starting to show some decent rain/snow for New Mexico on Thursday-Friday, with some help from the sub tropical jet stream. Up to 4.6 inches of snow at the airport officially. I still like January as a big precipitation month for Albuquerque - we'll see how that goes. Elephant Butte Reservoir is 28.8% full right now. After all the snow melted last July, it peaked at 29.2% full. Should easily beat that - maybe with the next big precipitation event this winter. Elephant Butte likely will be the most full it has been since 2002 by Spring or Summer.

Euro has a fairly steep cool down of Nino 4 forecast through July. Nino 3.4 is expected to cool slowly and hang around +0.5C. The PDO has recovered to a pretty positive value on the JISAO/Mantua index. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.05 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.52 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 2019-09-01T00:00:00Z 0.41 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97

Expecting January to be a warmer month than December for Nino 3.4 overall. The little patch of cold water has moved out of the region. Similar to last year now.

I'm starting to see some hints of big storms coming into the Southwest after the 15th - we'll see how that goes. Local records have a strong signal for a wet January after a wet November.

MJO currently looks like it could move back into phase four/five later in the month or in February. The high amplitude 4/5 call was depicted by late December, so it's likely the weakening phase five call is right - beyond that in late January...we'll see.

If you use 1951-2010 as the baseline, on average, Nino 3.4 will warm 0.2C from January to February. La Ninas typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they warm more than 0.2C. El Ninos typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they typically warm less than 0.2C because they are cooling/weakening. Last year, Nino 3.4 warmed from January to February by 0.28C - that is much more like a weakening La Nina. Now, look at the composite for an extra 0.1C of warming above the 0.2C average (i.e. a weakening La Nina reverting to Neutral), and look at the composite for at least 0.1C less warming than average: The map on the left is the ten most recent years that warmed at least 0.3C from Jan to Feb - typically La Ninas, but also 2019 which warmed 0.28C. Now...look at February 2019: It is an exaggerated, extreme version of the left map. I think it's all but guaranteed that Nino 3.4 finishes warmer in January than December. It's not a guarantee that February finishes 0.3C or more warmer than January - but I think it's pretty likely - remember 0.2C is how much warmer February is "typically", so you only need an extra 0.1C.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 SOI has spiked positive lately, in part due to the IOD collapsing, and developing hurricane activity by Australia.

GFS has backed off, but the Euro has accumulating snow for Albuquerque and much of New Mexico starting within five days now. Start time would be Thursday evening. Albuquerque had 0.3" precipitation for all of December, so that'd actually be the biggest storm in a while for us, if it verified exactly.

Albuquerque only has about six degrees of variation from the long-term average high for the past 100-years in winter (DJF) highs. We're deep enough into winter to confidently eliminate about half of that. With the high at 47.3F for 12/1-1/4, the winter here should finish at 49.6F, +/-3.1F at 90% certainty. The historical range is 49.5F, +/-6.3F essentially. Expecting the high to be right around 47.0F for 12/1-1/10 here, since it does look cold after Sunday. I'm increasingly concerned that the "E Pac Tropical Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt" part of the pattern that appeared 11/16-11/30 will return, but is going to be a March thing. I think Jan 3 is roughly Sept 18 in terms of the pattern cycling through. If that pattern does cycle back, it's a major blizzard/heavy snowstorm pattern for the Southwest. I'm hesitant to be optimistic for Albuquerque, since the airport has never reported more than 3.8 inches of snow in March, in a low solar year back to 1931-32. High solar March will see ~30% of years top 3 inches of snow, compared to ~3% in low-solar, and its more like 75% in high solar El Ninos. I'm a little afraid of that March period verifying. The city has not had any snow in March since 2012. It is ridiculously, way way over due. So even though I don't expect it, with March 1975 being the only significant March snow in a low solar year, I wouldn't be shocked if we had some fluke 6-10 inch snow storm or something. The setup in November, an extended cold dry period, ending with an attack of very wet moist air moving over it, is probably our best possible setup for a March snowstorm. I'd imagine the NE gets their two big Nor'easters in March or late February if this part of the pattern is really set to come back. This is my working theory for timing - Sept 16-18 = Jan 1-3 Sept 25 = Jan 10 Oct 2 = Jan 17 (should be a big storm for the SW around Jan 19 in this scenario) Oct 19 = Jan 24 Oct 26 = Jan 31 Oct 31 = Feb 5 (record cold for the SW? - that happened on Halloween. The great Arctic Outbreak of Feb 2011, when ABQ fell to -7F, with a high of 9F, was on Feb 4, 2011) Nov 11-13 = Feb 16-18. This would be the time frame for the "Mother of Blue Northers" to relapse. Nov 15 = Feb 20 Nov 20 = Feb 25 (big storm?) Nov 27-29 = Mar 2-4. This is the time frame the big SW storm that brought big Nov snows to the Rio Grande Valley.

Long term, the Fall transitioned from a pretty canonical El Nino Modoki event - very warm Nino 4, cold by Indonesia & Peru, to kind of a mess. Anomalies below are 1951-2010 basis. December featured a very warm Nino 4 and a very warm Nino 1.2, with the heat skipping Nino 3/3.4 to some extent as a cold wave below the surface moved east. It's amusing to see 1953, 2003, 2004 among the top six matches to OND 2019 - I had experimented with using that exact blend for winter. You'd have certainly have the heat in the Plains that exists now, with the NE & SW relatively average. I didn't use it because I don't think it will hold the whole winter. That blend gets you the huge heat waves in the Summer (2003), a fairly high ACE value (2004), El Nino winter SSTs after El Nino (all), and fairly low solar with a Neutral PDO, and warm AMO. That blend with one or two other hot SE years thrown in will probably end up pretty close given how hot it has been outside the mountains of New England & the Southwest to date. I did use 1953 in my winter blend, but I substituted 2004 for 1992 since it had been the top objective Nino 3.4 match for Spring/Summer in 2019 by a country mile. The January pattern forecast looks more like January 1993 than January 2005 anyway.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 CPC has +0.5C for OND (+0.46C v. their baseline). 27.11C in December. Using my older 1951-2010 base base, that's a +0.66C reading in Nino 3.4 - still real weak. Until September, 1992 was easily the top match in Nino 3.4 since 1950. Starting January, 1993 should become a pretty good match once again going by surface and subsurface readings in Nino 3.4. QBO is still positive, for those of you who consider that important. 2004-05 looks like a solid match now. 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66

Just for fun, here is the list of years since 1931-32, where Albuquerque has had more snow than DC, Baltimore, NYC, and Philly combined through January 2. The four NE cities average 5.1, 3.7, 3.4, 2.8 respectively for total snow through the end of December...or 15 inches in total in an average year. Albuquerque averages 1/4 of that - 3.7 inches through December in an average year. Looks a lot like what the models have for January. Completely different for February. Almost all are good Oct-May periods for snow out here, except for 1954-55, 1949-50, 2001-02.

Subsurface heat came in warmer in December than November, as expected. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt This is the top match I could find, with each month within 0.1. 100W-180W Oct Nov Dec 1981 0.25 0.02 -0.22 1981 0.25 0.02 -0.22 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 2005 -0.14 -0.57 -0.74 2018 1.59 1.36 1.06 Blend 0.69 0.34 0.40 2019 0.70 0.26 0.34 Blend is less warm nationally than the Canadian/CFS.