raindancewx

The thing that drives me nuts about Albuquerque is the airport does BS-y things with snow numbers, and precip in general. So they reported 0.09" of liquid equivalent as snow through about 5 pm. That number somehow is only 0.2 inches of snow. Despite temperatures 30-32F the entire period of accumulating snow. It was almost 60 yesterday, but it seems like it should be at least 0.5 inches. Visibility was under 2 miles for much of the snow Most of the city likely got far more precipitation too, although that's partly a snow shadowing issue. They'll probably update the snow total to something more reasonable later. The model precip was way overdone for sure, some of the models had 0.3-0.7" in the city, with half as snow. It's more like a 0.1-0.3" storm I'd say. The band in Arizona is likely to bring some additional precipitation, probably as snow. I've got one inch at my house a 6 pm, which is consistent with about 0.10" liquid so far.

I'm a big fan of the 3-km NAM at this range. Let's hope it verifies. Main issue for me will be if it gets cold enough. Dew points are low teens. But still in the upper 40s at almost 10 pm which is not ideal. I think we'd wet bulb to 36F or so at the moment, not quite cold enough/dry enough for snow. But the cold does seem to making the climb over the 7,000 pass into the Rio Grande Valley.

The 12/1-1/15 average high is 45.2F in Boston. Correlation implies 42.0F now for the season, +/-2.8F, at 90% certainty based on 1931-32 to 2018-19 errors from hindcasting. Winters with a high of 39.2F-44.8F in Boston average 31 inches of snow: DJF Tmax Tmax Snow 1931-1932 42.4 18.4 1932-1933 44.2 40.6 1936-1937 42.7 9 1946-1947 40.6 19.4 1948-1949 42.1 37.1 1949-1950 41.4 32 1950-1951 42.3 29.7 1951-1952 40.6 31.9 1952-1953 41.7 29.8 1953-1954 41.8 23.6 1959-1960 40.5 40.9 1971-1972 40.6 47.5 1973-1974 40.7 36.9 1974-1975 41.1 27.6 1975-1976 40.8 46.6 1982-1983 41.3 32.7 1984-1985 39.4 26.6 1988-1989 40.3 15.5 1990-1991 43.2 19.1 1991-1992 40.5 22 1994-1995 40.9 14.9 1996-1997 41.7 51.9 1997-1998 40.8 25.6 1998-1999 41.5 36.4 1999-2000 40.3 24.4 2001-2002 44.5 15.1 2005-2006 39.9 39.9 2006-2007 40.1 17.1 2007-2008 39.4 51.2 2011-2012 44.7 9.3 2012-2013 40 63.4 2016-2017 42.5 47.6 2017-2018 39.6 59.9 2018-2019 41.1 27.4 Average 41.3 31.5

Winter Weather Advisory for me means Albuquerque should be ahead of the combined snow total for NYC, Philly, Baltimore & DC again if the advisory verifies. Currently pretty close - 4.6" v. 5.0". The new Jamstec has El Nino / near El Nino conditions lasting for another full year, with an extremely hot Spring for the US. The ideal El Nino Modoki look in Sep-October for severe eastern cold has crashed pretty hard since, which coincides well with the rapid warm up in the East since the severely cold start to November.

Looks like a nice storm for New Mexico.

Starting to look like a good precipitation event for New Mexico on Thursday. Lots of mountain snow. Might get some snow in the valleys too if the 12-km NAM is right.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 On the weekly update, subsurface warmth is actually higher than last January now (+0.7 and rising) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf SOI has been positive but is correcting negative. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Jan 2020 1009.89 1005.85 -2.68 -5.49 -5.34 12 Jan 2020 1009.84 1005.45 -1.03 -5.78 -5.46 11 Jan 2020 1010.04 1004.25 5.56 -5.87 -5.52 10 Jan 2020 1011.34 1003.85 13.57 -6.09 -5.49 9 Jan 2020 1011.90 1005.60 7.97 -6.37 -5.59 8 Jan 2020 1011.88 1006.40 4.10 -6.72 -5.72 7 Jan 2020 1012.42 1006.75 5.00 -7.01 -5.90 6 Jan 2020 1014.76 1006.20 18.61 -7.02 -6.06 5 Jan 2020 1015.24 1006.70 18.52 -7.40 -6.28 4 Jan 2020 1014.00 1006.95 11.50 -7.88 -6.57 3 Jan 2020 1011.65 1008.60 -7.34 -8.54 -6.82 2 Jan 2020 1011.06 1010.15 -17.42 -8.42 -6.97 1 Jan 2020 1011.94 1008.85 -7.16 -7.54 -6.99

If you buy these two images as similar, and recognize Dec looked like 8/16-9/15, the "exciting" part of the pattern, late November, should return around week 4 February to week one March. Timing wise, should gel with the final push of the subsurface warmth to the surface in Nino 3.4 if you look at the animation.

The idea in my winter forecast for this pattern was that the seasonal totals for the SW (NM, AZ, CO, UT) would more or less be above average, but it would be a smaller than normal number of storms that got us there. November saved Fall here, with close to two inches of liquid equivalent Nov 16-30, pushing Fall to +30% here for moisture. The precipitation pattern is essentially 1953-54, but occasionally, 1992-93/2004-05 interject with wetter storms to break up the dryness. A lot of the super warm mid-January periods in the NE (70ish in Boston) showed up in my precipitation analogs - so I don't think we'll stay quiet too much longer. The event on the Euro below is within five days and keeps trending up. I don't know that I buy the front range getting shadowed yet. The way the moisture is forecast to move through New Mexico still looks wrong on the models to me. As depicted below, the Euro would more or less verify the "wet January" idea I've had since December for New Mexico. It's our driest month here - doesn't take much. Nationally, the US temperature pattern Jan 1-12 looks like Sept 16-27 roughly. So if the November part of the pattern is to repeat, I'm expecting it Feb 25 - March 5.

Looks to me, for the 1872-2020 era of Boston records, the 73F achieved today is the all-time warmest it has ever been in Boston during January. Congratulations on your nicest winter day of all time. You've got 10 hours to get the low below 55F - the all-time warmest January low in Boston - that's pretty likely but it may be closer than it looked initially.

GFS/Euro are starting to show some decent rain/snow for New Mexico on Thursday-Friday, with some help from the sub tropical jet stream. Up to 4.6 inches of snow at the airport officially. I still like January as a big precipitation month for Albuquerque - we'll see how that goes. Elephant Butte Reservoir is 28.8% full right now. After all the snow melted last July, it peaked at 29.2% full. Should easily beat that - maybe with the next big precipitation event this winter. Elephant Butte likely will be the most full it has been since 2002 by Spring or Summer.

Yeah I know. The better shot was today - it was about 50 at 11 pm EST when I looked yesterday. The +30 departures today in the NE are worth ~+0.3 for the entire winter though, which is impressive for one day. You guys have had it easy anyway, Philadelphia is approaching a bottom ten snow total through mid-January at this point. Still only 0.1" officially.

Warmest low temperature back to the 1800s for Boston in January is 55F in 1950. Here's hoping you break the record. 1932 and 1906, two good precipitation matches locally, are up there in second/third place. Weather Channel has a low of 59F on Saturday. That's like late June/early July level lows out here.

Euro has a fairly steep cool down of Nino 4 forecast through July. Nino 3.4 is expected to cool slowly and hang around +0.5C. The PDO has recovered to a pretty positive value on the JISAO/Mantua index. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.05 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.52 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-08-01T00:00:00Z 0.38 2019-09-01T00:00:00Z 0.41 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97

Expecting January to be a warmer month than December for Nino 3.4 overall. The little patch of cold water has moved out of the region. Similar to last year now.

I'm starting to see some hints of big storms coming into the Southwest after the 15th - we'll see how that goes. Local records have a strong signal for a wet January after a wet November.

MJO currently looks like it could move back into phase four/five later in the month or in February. The high amplitude 4/5 call was depicted by late December, so it's likely the weakening phase five call is right - beyond that in late January...we'll see.

If you use 1951-2010 as the baseline, on average, Nino 3.4 will warm 0.2C from January to February. La Ninas typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they warm more than 0.2C. El Ninos typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they typically warm less than 0.2C because they are cooling/weakening. Last year, Nino 3.4 warmed from January to February by 0.28C - that is much more like a weakening La Nina. Now, look at the composite for an extra 0.1C of warming above the 0.2C average (i.e. a weakening La Nina reverting to Neutral), and look at the composite for at least 0.1C less warming than average: The map on the left is the ten most recent years that warmed at least 0.3C from Jan to Feb - typically La Ninas, but also 2019 which warmed 0.28C. Now...look at February 2019: It is an exaggerated, extreme version of the left map. I think it's all but guaranteed that Nino 3.4 finishes warmer in January than December. It's not a guarantee that February finishes 0.3C or more warmer than January - but I think it's pretty likely - remember 0.2C is how much warmer February is "typically", so you only need an extra 0.1C.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 SOI has spiked positive lately, in part due to the IOD collapsing, and developing hurricane activity by Australia.

Some snow is depicted through Friday Morning for NM/CO on the GFS and Euro. I'm leaning toward ~30F, 0.20" as snow here. With no East Wind, that's around two inches of snow. Looks like Thursday Night - Friday Morning mostly.

GFS has backed off, but the Euro has accumulating snow for Albuquerque and much of New Mexico starting within five days now. Start time would be Thursday evening. Albuquerque had 0.3" precipitation for all of December, so that'd actually be the biggest storm in a while for us, if it verified exactly.

The two week period he mentions is kind of impressive historically - Long term, I think the NE snow season is gradually shifting later and shorter, from a mid Nov-early Apr time frame for big snows, to late Dec to late March. That Feb 15 - Apr 15 period is always going to be somewhat protected for you guys with the Atlantic at its coldest. At this point, I'm just curious to see when the NYC + Philly + Baltimore + DC snow total will get ahead of ABQ snow to date. It's possible it happens this week, but even it does, I think we'll get at least some snow mid/late month. Long-term, your magic number for ~never getting above average snow seems to be a high of about 41/42F or more in DJF. Correlation between the 12/1-1/4 high and the 12/1-2/28 high is actually much stronger in Boston than for Albuquerque. The high of 44.1F for 12/1-1/4 in Boston implies, ~40.4F for DJF, +/-2.9F at 90% certainty. By itself, not a warm enough start to imply below average snow...but of course the mid month looks real warm, with some days in the 50s probably. The data for both graphs is 1931-32 to 2018-19 for Boston.

Albuquerque only has about six degrees of variation from the long-term average high for the past 100-years in winter (DJF) highs. We're deep enough into winter to confidently eliminate about half of that. With the high at 47.3F for 12/1-1/4, the winter here should finish at 49.6F, +/-3.1F at 90% certainty. The historical range is 49.5F, +/-6.3F essentially. Expecting the high to be right around 47.0F for 12/1-1/10 here, since it does look cold after Sunday. I'm increasingly concerned that the "E Pac Tropical Pacific Moisture Conveyor Belt" part of the pattern that appeared 11/16-11/30 will return, but is going to be a March thing. I think Jan 3 is roughly Sept 18 in terms of the pattern cycling through. If that pattern does cycle back, it's a major blizzard/heavy snowstorm pattern for the Southwest. I'm hesitant to be optimistic for Albuquerque, since the airport has never reported more than 3.8 inches of snow in March, in a low solar year back to 1931-32. High solar March will see ~30% of years top 3 inches of snow, compared to ~3% in low-solar, and its more like 75% in high solar El Ninos. I'm a little afraid of that March period verifying. The city has not had any snow in March since 2012. It is ridiculously, way way over due. So even though I don't expect it, with March 1975 being the only significant March snow in a low solar year, I wouldn't be shocked if we had some fluke 6-10 inch snow storm or something. The setup in November, an extended cold dry period, ending with an attack of very wet moist air moving over it, is probably our best possible setup for a March snowstorm. I'd imagine the NE gets their two big Nor'easters in March or late February if this part of the pattern is really set to come back. This is my working theory for timing - Sept 16-18 = Jan 1-3 Sept 25 = Jan 10 Oct 2 = Jan 17 (should be a big storm for the SW around Jan 19 in this scenario) Oct 19 = Jan 24 Oct 26 = Jan 31 Oct 31 = Feb 5 (record cold for the SW? - that happened on Halloween. The great Arctic Outbreak of Feb 2011, when ABQ fell to -7F, with a high of 9F, was on Feb 4, 2011) Nov 11-13 = Feb 16-18. This would be the time frame for the "Mother of Blue Northers" to relapse. Nov 15 = Feb 20 Nov 20 = Feb 25 (big storm?) Nov 27-29 = Mar 2-4. This is the time frame the big SW storm that brought big Nov snows to the Rio Grande Valley.

I saw Eric Fisher mentioned Boston hasn't been 32F or less since Dec 22, 2019. That's a pretty remarkable streak. As far as evaluating my stuff goes, I don't really care if a call is above/below average, I score myself on the absolute value of the difference between reality and the forecast. So for December, it'd be (Fcst-Obs)/(Obs). So (8.5-11.5)/11.5 --- a 26.1% error on a blend made in early October for December. It's not amazing, but I'm not even trying to forecast monthly snow totals really, so I'll take it - I'm much more interested in the seasonal totals, and when we get to late April I'll release how well I did for snow nationally, I included a couple dozen cities in my outlook, all over the US. If you look at the SST data from Oct-Dec, we've gone from a pretty canonical, even an idealized, El Nino Modoki, which favored the cold East in late Oct/Nov, to a setup where Nino 4 is warm, but the solid gradation of very warm Nino 4 to very cool Nino 1.2 is gone. Nino 1.2 was way warmer in an anomaly sense than Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 in December.

Long term, the Fall transitioned from a pretty canonical El Nino Modoki event - very warm Nino 4, cold by Indonesia & Peru, to kind of a mess. Anomalies below are 1951-2010 basis. December featured a very warm Nino 4 and a very warm Nino 1.2, with the heat skipping Nino 3/3.4 to some extent as a cold wave below the surface moved east. It's amusing to see 1953, 2003, 2004 among the top six matches to OND 2019 - I had experimented with using that exact blend for winter. You'd have certainly have the heat in the Plains that exists now, with the NE & SW relatively average. I didn't use it because I don't think it will hold the whole winter. That blend gets you the huge heat waves in the Summer (2003), a fairly high ACE value (2004), El Nino winter SSTs after El Nino (all), and fairly low solar with a Neutral PDO, and warm AMO. That blend with one or two other hot SE years thrown in will probably end up pretty close given how hot it has been outside the mountains of New England & the Southwest to date. I did use 1953 in my winter blend, but I substituted 2004 for 1992 since it had been the top objective Nino 3.4 match for Spring/Summer in 2019 by a country mile. The January pattern forecast looks more like January 1993 than January 2005 anyway.