raindancewx

Waters below Nino 3.4 aren't as warm as last year, but I can't really see a rapid collapse in Nino 3.4 temperatures either, at least until April. Warmth in Nino 3.4 in March is a strong warm signal for the US later in Summer, especially August-September. Probably not as warm as last Summer though, which followed one of the warmest Nino 3.4 Springs on record, I think it was 7th since 1950 for warmth.

The local weather service is talking about record precipitable water for Saturday for the date for New Mexico. My winter outlook had 1.25" precipitation for Albuquerque for Dec-Feb. I have an experimental winter regression for El Ninos that said 2.10", +/-0.8" at 95% certainty for the winter. Currently 0.98", with 0.1-0.5" possible for the storm Saturday. Different formula had 0.47", +/-0.43" at 95% certainty for February - currently 0.38". Very curious to see how it all shakes out. Takes forever to test these seasonal regressions. Winter high is currently 49.4F here. Up to 89 lows <=32F for 10/1-2/21.

In an SOI sense, a big -SOI in Dec, near 0 SOI in Jan, and then a big -SOI in Feb is fairly unusual. This blend is broadly consistent with my analogs - with a warm West for March. 2012-13 is objectively the closest match in the past 100 years, but I prefer this blend. Year Dec Jan Feb 2019 -6.7 0.7 -7.3 1953 -5.8 5.0 -5.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1987 -5.8 -1.5 -6.2 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 Blend -7.1 0.6 -6.4 For the subsurface, 100-180W, 0-300m down, these are likely top matches for Dec-Feb: 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 Mean 0.34 0.50 0.48 2019 0.34 0.51 0.50 Take your pick for March - the second blend is much closer to the analogs I used for Spring (1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 for MAM), and March 2020 (1954, 2004, 2005). 1981 is actually a decent match for the subsurface too. March 2013 also looks fairly close to the left map, and it is the top SOI blend.

GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.

Weeklies continue to show decay in Nino 3.4. It's hard to say if it will last - the subsurface animation is down. My suspicion is it won't. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 ~Record positive Arctic Oscillation in February with near record warmth in Nino 4 is an interesting/unusual combination for February. The two are opposite temperature signals for the US in March in large areas of the US. On the monthly data sets, February 1990, 1992, 1995, 2015, 2019 are similar, but the AO wasn't super positive in January in these years generally. The Oct 16-Nov 15 pattern has shown up, shifted West for February, so I'd expect Nov 16-Dec 15 to show up for March, shifted in some way. The warm storm forecast for me late this week is on track with the warm/wet storm on November 6th, roughly a 3.5 month lag still, generally +104 days, +/-3 is verifying pretty well.

The SOI crashes of late imply a very active late February period. We'll see how that goes. My 3.5 month repeat idea means that there should be some kind of big, wet/warm storm around February 23, given the big/wet/warm storm in early November. The late November pattern is early March on that time scale. If it verifies anything close to Nov 16-Nov 30 for moisture, it has the potential to be an all time wet March for the Southwest. I'm fairly optimistic for March. Almost every day has been below freezing in Albuquerque for at least a little while, for three months now. That's not going to immediately shut off, so we've got a real shot at March snow. The data supports it - if you sort Oct 1 - Feb 15 lows <=32F by year into the cold half, and the warm half, 83 and less is warm, and 84 and more is cold for the last 88 years. So the odds are far more favorable for (light) snow in March in years with more frequent lows <=32F. We're at 86 for 10/1-2/15, one of the highest figures in the last 25 years, behind only 2009-10, and tied with 2000-01 and 1997-98. I don't buy a very snowy March though, we've only topped three inches one time in a low solar year, in over 30 low solar years. # <=32F >0" >=1" >=2" >=3" >=4" >=5" >=6" >83 Oct-2/15 84.09% 52.27% 34.09% 27.27% 13.64% 11.36% 9.09% <84 Oct-2/15 47.73% 27.27% 22.73% 9.09% 6.82% 2.27% 2.27% P-value 0.0002 0.0083 0.1186 0.0135 0.1456 0.0454 0.0836 Years with snow each month from Nov-Feb, like 2019-20, also heavily favor snow in March, compared to all other years. Almost 90% of years with snow each month Nov-Feb see snow in March, compared to only 60% in all other years.

Here is the JISAO/Nate Mantua PDO update for January 2020 - negative. 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.23 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO My PDO indicator said ~ +0.5 for Nov-Apr. That looks fine.

Here is the European update for ENSO - looks to me like no real change in Nino 3.4. The predicted decline in Nino 4 has been shown for several months now and is much more interesting. The Jamstec site is changing looks like, so might be a little late to update this month. Long term, the pattern still appears to be cycling through at about a 104 day lag. I had a storm exactly 104 days ago yesterday in October.

I've been fairly impressed with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19 for recent ocean/solar/weather conditions in the US. Had used three of those years in my winter forecast - it's the other three that screwed me up. With some adjustments for the record +AO, warmer oceans, and warming subsurface, I used that blend for my Spring forecast: https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook

It's updated at a different link. Nate Mantua sent me this a while ago and it's the same data as before through December 2019. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Big drop on the weekly data. But the subsurface 100-180W is still warm and warming. Nino 3 as the coldest anomaly is unusual. We're in like an El Nino sandwich, warm edges, cold middle. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2

The local NWS has Albuquerque in a Winter Storm Watch, along with much of New Mexico, for 3-8 inches of snow on Monday Night - Tuesday Night. The wind forecast has been trending weaker, but that still seems high for Albuquerque. I use Weather.US for the European wind forecasts by hour but it isn't loading the new Euro. Dew point is currently 16F. So even tomorrow morning may see some wet bulb snow. I think we could fall to 36-40 before any precipitation moves in early Monday. By that point, I think the dew point is still around 22. If were 36/37 with a dew point in the low 20s, we'll find a way to snow. Then it will go to rain after. In any case, should be some good precipitation at least.

The Nate Mantua/JISAO PDO isn't in yet, but the NOAA version of it is, and shows a big crash for January. The JISAO PDO usually moves in a similar way to the NOAA PDO, but with higher values. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201910 -0.96 201911 -0.28 201912 0.01 202001 -1.17

If an El Nino is to develop again for winter 2020-21, that's pretty rare historically. Only cases I know of for a 27C or warmer Nino 3.4, three times in a row, in the past 100 years: 1939-40, 1940-41, 1941-42 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 (and here you have to fudge 2003-04 - it's right at like 26.96C or so). The early 1990s are kind of an interesting case, since 1992-93 was not 27.0C, but came after a volcanic eruption that cooled the Earth, and so you had essentially an El Nino without Nino 3.4 warm in 1992-93.

On the final update, only 0.8" snow yesterday in Albuquerque. Today's high of 32F with a low of 12F in Albuquerque is the 39th coldest day in February in the last 100 years. Close to the 99th Percentile for cold in that period. I think we may make a run for 5-10F in the morning, which is pretty impressive here for February. I think the all time record low is about -7 for February, matched in 2011. Dew point is "only" -5, so we won't break the record.

CPC just had a baby everybody. Guess what gender? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2019 10 27.20 26.75 0.45 2019 11 27.23 26.75 0.48 2019 12 27.12 26.65 0.47 2020 1 27.18 26.45 0.73 (near identical to last year) 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.20 26.45 0.75 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6

Three in a row?

Albuquerque finally had a "high ratio" snow event today - airport reported 0.05" liquid equivalent as 1.3 inches of snow. So 6.6 inches for Oct 1-Feb 4 at the official site. At my place, only 0.7 inches today, but up to 10.3 inches for the season. Roughly 40% of precipitation to fall in Dec-Feb so far has been snow for Albuquerque, and then another ~22% of the precipitation in November, the wettest November in 100+ years was also snow.

Some new data this week. The QBO has gone negative. 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 No new ONI value yet from CPC - likely tomorrow or later in the week. Solar activity may be coming up now - January had more than six sunspots, down from last January but up from recent months. The El Nino is having a secondary peak, like last year. Warming of >0.3C from Jan-Feb in Nino 3.4 is more like a La Nina that is weakening than an El Nino, which is why February is expected to be similar to last year (warm East, cold West). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 The new Canadian run still shows a La Nina developing in Summer but it is much slower to form that on the last run. The subsurface implies to me a final peak Feb or Mar or both, then rapid cooling at the subsurface. The record setting (?) +AO for February forecast is a pretty strong warm signal for Feb-Mar...and then not at all in April.

CFS matches the spatial look you get matching the 100-180W zone's heat content in the Tropical Pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Heat content is now almost identical to last year in January. Was +0.59 in January 2019. The CFS 6-10, 8-14, and week 3-4 all show a warm February in the East. No update from the Canadian seasonal model yet on Tropical Tidbits. 100-180W Nov Dec Jan 2019 0.26 0.34 0.51 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1992 -0.27 0.19 0.27 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2003 0.54 0.17 0.05 Blend 0.24 0.32 0.49

Elephant Butte Lake is already the fullest it has been since 2010. Currently 585,967 acre feet of water in the lake. Last day with more than that? June 18, 2010 (586,945 acre feet). The highest value for 2010 was 604,248 acre feet, with 2009 peaking at 705,284 acre feet. I don't think we'll beat 2002 - which peaked at 905,744 acre feet. I'm expecting the lake to get into the 640,000-740,000 acre feet range sometime by the end of July.

Subsurface is still warm, but looks like it will rapidly cool from mid-February or March on. Similar thing happened in Nov-Dec, coinciding well with the big Eastern US warm up. I'd expect a pretty warm April nationally if I have the timing right on the warm up to cool down. Long-term, a warm Spring in Nino 3.4 is a warm signal for the US in July-Sept. Last March-May was 7th warmest since 1950 in Nino 3.4. So a cooler Nino 3.4 favors somewhat less heat in that period. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9

My January outlook from October is actually starting to look pretty good nationally. East probably won't finish +6 to +12 by the end of the month, and the Northern Plains will warm up some, it looks pretty warm from Montana to Michigan over the rest of the month. General idea from me was weak cold Plains and West in January, warm elsewhere. If you add 2F to my blend, it should end up pretty close to the final January look. My NAO indicator, and the growing model consensus of the MJO starting February in phase 5/6, not to mention the super +AO in January, all point to another warm month for the East. I don't expect the Montana anomalies to finish 10-25 below normal for the month though, if the cold goes into the West again. With Nino 3.4 not really warming up at the surface in January, but lots of warmth below the surface, I'd expect Nino 3.4 to be much warmer in February than in January, which is atypical in an El Nino. So some kind of western / central cold dump is likely if Nino 3.4 sees a big jump, like last year. The 3.5 month lag that had mid-Aug to mid-Sept fairly similar to December still seems to be working, which implies a pretty cold February for the Plains, or an area near the Plains. Here is Sept 16-Oct 5 v. Jan 1-20. There's essentially been a clockwise rotation centered on the Canadian Plains of some of the East Canada Fall warmth into New England, while the cold centered on Reno, NV shifted up to Western Canada. Very curious to see if there is any resemblance in February to this. My hunch is there will be, but it will be shifted to the northwest from the Fall.

By the end of the month, my outlook for January, warmed up 2F may end up being fairly close to what actually happens. This was my blend from October, but with +2 added on.

Not structured the same as last year, but looks like an El Nino to me. It's kind of amazing the SOI has been better connected to the El Nino this year given how warm the waters by Australia have been compared to last year.

I actually got that wrong - we topped 29.2% briefly in 2010. Anyway, it looks like it might snow a bit tomorrow, although I think with the much higher dew points it is unlikely to be as cold or as much snow as in the last system. Expecting 0.25" precipitation for Albuquerque, and maybe 0.5" or less as snow. Dew point is 22 though, at this time before the last system it was more like 5. With the higher dew point, I'd like to see the air temperature / dew point blend below 38/22 by Midnight for snow on Tuesday. The last system was 44/10 at Midnight I think, and eventually got down to 30F.