raindancewx

Albuquerque finally had a "high ratio" snow event today - airport reported 0.05" liquid equivalent as 1.3 inches of snow. So 6.6 inches for Oct 1-Feb 4 at the official site. At my place, only 0.7 inches today, but up to 10.3 inches for the season. Roughly 40% of precipitation to fall in Dec-Feb so far has been snow for Albuquerque, and then another ~22% of the precipitation in November, the wettest November in 100+ years was also snow.

My NAO indicator is still on track. Blending years with a similar Sep-Mar, and May-Apr transition to match current year conditions is a good indicator. March is the period to watch.

Some new data this week. The QBO has gone negative. 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 No new ONI value yet from CPC - likely tomorrow or later in the week. Solar activity may be coming up now - January had more than six sunspots, down from last January but up from recent months. The El Nino is having a secondary peak, like last year. Warming of >0.3C from Jan-Feb in Nino 3.4 is more like a La Nina that is weakening than an El Nino, which is why February is expected to be similar to last year (warm East, cold West). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 The new Canadian run still shows a La Nina developing in Summer but it is much slower to form that on the last run. The subsurface implies to me a final peak Feb or Mar or both, then rapid cooling at the subsurface. The record setting (?) +AO for February forecast is a pretty strong warm signal for Feb-Mar...and then not at all in April.

I had Boston and most of New England near average (40" in Boston from the blend) for snow - that still looks OK to me, but the NYC to DC corridor that I had above average, well above actually - does look like a bust to me. It's interesting actually since the other areas of the US that I had enhanced/or below average have been right - lot of snow Rockies, Plains, even the Midwest areas are basically right, and I had the mid-South below average too. My highs are forecast to be in the mid-30s next week, which is reminiscent of the mid-October cold shots we had out here, so the pattern still seems to be repeating at a general 3.5 month lag. The snow storm for Colorado in the coming days is fairly similar to the event around 10/20 I think, I'd have to look.

If you look on the first or second page of the thread, there was a pretty decent snow event for Colorado in mid-October, around 10/19. That's roughly the 3.5 month lag I've been talking about. Remember this?

CFS matches the spatial look you get matching the 100-180W zone's heat content in the Tropical Pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Heat content is now almost identical to last year in January. Was +0.59 in January 2019. The CFS 6-10, 8-14, and week 3-4 all show a warm February in the East. No update from the Canadian seasonal model yet on Tropical Tidbits. 100-180W Nov Dec Jan 2019 0.26 0.34 0.51 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1992 -0.27 0.19 0.27 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2003 0.54 0.17 0.05 Blend 0.24 0.32 0.49

I'm aware of the sensor thing you guys talk about. My thing is, Massachusetts looks warmer inland anyway, so I don't think it matters much, except for where the core of the heat has been in the Northeast? I use Boston as regional proxy.

The data for today is down currently, but through the first 60 days of winter, it looks like the fourth/fifth warmest winter for Boston in the past 100 years. Boston's lowest low for 10/1-01/29 is 14 degrees - 2nd warmest minimum for that period back to the 1870s. Finishing with only 16 lows 32F or less for January is kind of impressive too for Boston - fewest since 1932. My analogs had lows around +5F for New England, that may end up as the right idea for the winter. Currently +6.2F in Boston against the 1951-2010 average low for the first 60-days of winter. I think even out here in the desert, record warmth for average low in Dec-Jan is right around 30F.

Elephant Butte Lake is already the fullest it has been since 2010. Currently 585,967 acre feet of water in the lake. Last day with more than that? June 18, 2010 (586,945 acre feet). The highest value for 2010 was 604,248 acre feet, with 2009 peaking at 705,284 acre feet. I don't think we'll beat 2002 - which peaked at 905,744 acre feet. I'm expecting the lake to get into the 640,000-740,000 acre feet range sometime by the end of July.

I'm expecting a compromise between the 3.5 month lag timing analog for February (Oct 16-Nov 15), and similar US weather/solar/ocean/SOI conditions (1937, 1954, 1993, 1993, 2005, 2005, 2019). The top SOI blend for NDJ is likely 1936-37, 1992-93, 2004-05. US conditions in Dec/Jan look a lot like 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19. What does that compromise look like? This - and I warmed it up another 2F because not many areas of the US have snow cover right now. The CFS does seem to be heading in the right direction toward the cold Central idea. There have been hints on some of the methods I used for a pretty impressive cold dump into the West mid-month. That should bleed East, but run out of time to make the east cold by the 29th. That's my general idea. Most of the NE will probably catch up to near average during the transitions into/out of the warm pattern, but obviously, finishing below average is most likely for most NE zones.

I actually consider 1913-14 to be a very weak El Nino, like this year. The issue with 1959-60 is that it had near record high solar activity, very unlike this year. For solar, it seems like the equinoxes are the peak for precipitation effects, while the solstices are the peak for temperature effects, when I look at various US sites statistically. In other words...you'd expect different snow outcomes even in a similar temperature pattern to March 1960. I will say - March 1960 was about 27.0C in Nino 3.4. If this event collapses rapidly, that's not impossible. We're only at 27.0C or so in January. So you'd just need the ocean to not warm, or to warm less than usual from Jan-Mar in Nino 3.4.

Weather Trends 360 has a pretty good track record for seasonal forecasts - they have a much less snowy March for the NE corridor than last year. We'll see how that goes. I think the best window for NE snow is Feb 15-Mar 15, coinciding with the return of wet/cold/powerful storms into the SW, and some weak/transient blocking. We'll see. On their map, yellow is less snow than last year, and the blues are more snow than last year. The three red lines are >1", >6", and >12".

WT360 has a pretty good track record for seasonal stuff, and they have similar to more snow in March for NM/CO compared to 2019. Given the pattern has been cycling at a 3.5 month lag, the first half of March is my best guess for a repeat of the late November part of the pattern.

Subsurface is still warm, but looks like it will rapidly cool from mid-February or March on. Similar thing happened in Nov-Dec, coinciding well with the big Eastern US warm up. I'd expect a pretty warm April nationally if I have the timing right on the warm up to cool down. Long-term, a warm Spring in Nino 3.4 is a warm signal for the US in July-Sept. Last March-May was 7th warmest since 1950 in Nino 3.4. So a cooler Nino 3.4 favors somewhat less heat in that period. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9

Winter as 3.5 month lag idea still seems to be working. This is pretty similar to late October before you guys got your share of the cold. I know its 366 hours out, but that's been my idea for a while now. Will be interesting to see if it is anywhere near reality.

There's the late October record cold, showing up right on time (3.5 month lag) - obviously way out in model fantasy land. But it's nice to see that, as opposed to a huge warm spell.

My January outlook from October is actually starting to look pretty good nationally. East probably won't finish +6 to +12 by the end of the month, and the Northern Plains will warm up some, it looks pretty warm from Montana to Michigan over the rest of the month. General idea from me was weak cold Plains and West in January, warm elsewhere. If you add 2F to my blend, it should end up pretty close to the final January look. My NAO indicator, and the growing model consensus of the MJO starting February in phase 5/6, not to mention the super +AO in January, all point to another warm month for the East. I don't expect the Montana anomalies to finish 10-25 below normal for the month though, if the cold goes into the West again. With Nino 3.4 not really warming up at the surface in January, but lots of warmth below the surface, I'd expect Nino 3.4 to be much warmer in February than in January, which is atypical in an El Nino. So some kind of western / central cold dump is likely if Nino 3.4 sees a big jump, like last year. The 3.5 month lag that had mid-Aug to mid-Sept fairly similar to December still seems to be working, which implies a pretty cold February for the Plains, or an area near the Plains. Here is Sept 16-Oct 5 v. Jan 1-20. There's essentially been a clockwise rotation centered on the Canadian Plains of some of the East Canada Fall warmth into New England, while the cold centered on Reno, NV shifted up to Western Canada. Very curious to see if there is any resemblance in February to this. My hunch is there will be, but it will be shifted to the northwest from the Fall.

By the end of the month, my outlook for January, warmed up 2F may end up being fairly close to what actually happens. This was my blend from October, but with +2 added on.

Not structured the same as last year, but looks like an El Nino to me. It's kind of amazing the SOI has been better connected to the El Nino this year given how warm the waters by Australia have been compared to last year.

My NAO indicator for winter seems to be working again. If it continues to be right, March is your best shot for heavy snow in big Nor'easters. February...is not what you want if my idea is right. NAO Sept-Mar May-Apr Dec 2017 -1.35 -3.64 0.88 1994 -2.58 -1.71 2.02 2017 -1.35 -3.64 0.88 Mean -1.76 -3.00 1.26 2019 -1.80 -3.09 1.20 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 0.05 1.26 -1.10 -0.61 0.19 -0.00 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 1.09 1.39 1.97 1.67 0.93 -0.11 0.61 1994 1.04 0.46 1.26 1.14 -0.57 1.52 1.31 0.38 -1.32 -0.97 0.64 2.02 1995 0.93 1.14 1.25 -0.85 -1.49 0.13 -0.22 0.69 0.31 0.19 -1.38 -1.67 (-0.93 x 2) + (1.25)/3 --> -0.2 NAO for March. Here is last year - 1975 0.58 -0.62 -0.61 -1.60 -0.52 -0.84 1.55 -0.26 1.56 -0.54 0.41 0.00 1976 -0.25 0.93 0.75 0.26 0.96 0.80 -0.32 1.92 -1.29 -0.08 0.17 -1.60 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 1.09 1.39 1.97 1.67 0.93 -0.11 0.61 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 -1.09 -1.43 -1.17 -0.16 -1.41 0.28 1.20 NAO Sept-Mar May-Apr DJF 1975 2.17 1.08 0.23 2018 2.60 0.88 0.50

I actually got that wrong - we topped 29.2% briefly in 2010. Anyway, it looks like it might snow a bit tomorrow, although I think with the much higher dew points it is unlikely to be as cold or as much snow as in the last system. Expecting 0.25" precipitation for Albuquerque, and maybe 0.5" or less as snow. Dew point is 22 though, at this time before the last system it was more like 5. With the higher dew point, I'd like to see the air temperature / dew point blend below 38/22 by Midnight for snow on Tuesday. The last system was 44/10 at Midnight I think, and eventually got down to 30F.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 Given how warm the subsurface is below Nino 3.4, you have to expect a warmer Nino 3.4 in February, above the average +0.2C warming that takes place from Jan to Feb. The western subsurface does look pretty cold, so the models showing +0.5C to +0.8C in Nino 3.4 through Feb/Mar and then a La Nina next winter are probably right. I'm fairly confident that the periods of extreme Eastern warmth in the Fall/Winter are going to show up again in the Spring. Will be interesting to see how that evolves. I'll link my Spring Forecast here around February 10th if anyone is curious. Winter to date has looked a lot like 1953-54, 2003-04, 2004-05 as a blend warmed up a degree, with the heat core somewhat SE, and it's not a bad SST match either in the Nino zones.

It still looks to me like the pattern is repeating, almost verbatim from Fall at a 3.5 month lag. The very very cold air dumping into Montana lately is consistent with what happened about 10/1. In other words...the mid-Oct to mid-Nov part of the pattern is likely coming in February. The January SOI hanging out around 0, were it to continue, supports something like a 1937/1993/2005 blend for February 2020, which is fairly similar to how mid-Oct to mid-Nov looked, but colder West. Real question is: When will Philadelphia have its first inch of snow?

The SOI for January is back down to -0.6. Right now, the top blend for February is 1937, 1993, 2005. Will change by the end of the month...but it's not likely to be super positive or negative this month. SOI Nov Dec Jan 1936 -13.8 -0.7 8.8 2004 -7.7 -10.1 1.2 1992 -6.9 -6.6 -9.2 Blend -9.5 -5.8 0.3 2019 -9.5 -6.7 -0.6 Cold West / average East pattern if the SOI finishes around 0 in January. The top six objective matches are 2004-05, 1939-40, 1967-68, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1963-64.