raindancewx

For reference: Big time cooling from a warm MJJ in 2017 is not happening right now. Instead, there is a warming trend for May. This is consistent with the SW cooling off recently. When there are big drops in subsurface heat, we fry with almost no moisture. When there is a big warm up, it cools off and gets stormier - pretty much immediately. We were very hot here in Apr/May but have cooled off in June, and have trended much colder lately in July. January 2017 was also extremely wet.

Hurricane warning for Texas! Putting a lot of moisture in the Rio Grande Valley is probably good for us to the West though.

Rain, clouds and humidity really broke the heat here - lots of days in the 80s now. Dew points over 60 - which always feels super weird and humid here. Month is on target to be near the 93.5F forecast I had for Albuquerque in July. The CFS continues to trend to a wet/cold August for NM, CO, AZ, and UT - it's been a while since that has happened down here, so I'd love to see it.

I don't see anything to force big changes in Nino 3.4 at the moment, for say 2-4 weeks. Everything is remarkably near average below the surface down to 200m in Nino 3.4

We're still in a non-Nina Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 15JUL2020 20.2-1.5 25.1-0.6 27.0-0.2 28.8 0.0 The 2017 event came on super late though - have to watch for that. The very cold water below eastern Nino 3/1.2 seems to be surfacing now. 10MAY2017 25.4 1.0 27.8 0.6 28.3 0.5 29.1 0.4 17MAY2017 25.2 1.1 27.6 0.5 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.3 24MAY2017 24.2 0.4 27.5 0.6 28.4 0.6 29.1 0.3 31MAY2017 23.7 0.2 27.2 0.5 28.3 0.6 29.2 0.4 07JUN2017 23.1-0.1 26.9 0.3 28.1 0.4 29.3 0.5 14JUN2017 22.9 0.0 26.7 0.2 28.2 0.5 29.4 0.6 21JUN2017 22.9 0.3 26.7 0.4 28.3 0.7 29.5 0.7 28JUN2017 22.8 0.4 26.5 0.4 28.1 0.7 29.4 0.6 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2

Looks like the cold east / warm west should continue for a bit in the Nino zones. Not really a whole lot of intense warmth or cold in the Nino 3.4 zone. The Euro is still more on board with a cold Neutral than a La Nina too -

I'm expecting a bit of a crap winter for much of the West this year, but not so much for temperatures. Mostly for consistent below average precipitation. A hot high July in NM is almost preceded by a pretty warm December for much of the West, but I think we'll cool off later in the winter. No measurable rain in Albuquerque this July means the odds of an active monsoon are already below 25% using historical precipitation data, and that disfavors heavy December snow/big snowstorms late December historically for NM & CO. I would like to see a huge August for precipitation down here - it is way overdue. If the Atlantic turns hyperactive for hurricanes that is pretty much always a bad sign for a cold Western winter too (1933, 2005, 2017) - something to watch.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 08JUL2020 21.1-0.8 25.3-0.5 27.2-0.1 29.1 0.3 At the surface, the eastern areas are colder than La Ninas that developed in 2005 and 2017. But the subsurface was flipping colder in those years in July. It is still trending warmer at the moment. Still think a La Nina is possible, but it does have some headwinds going against it at the moment.

Something to watch in the coming weeks - we've never had a La Nina in DJF, i.e. Nino 3.4 below 26.0C for that period - when the waters below the surface of 100-180W at the equator are warmer than average in August. The June reading for 100-180w below the surface was -0.6, but there has been a steady warming of the cool subsurface waters. I don't know that August is a lock to be below 0 at this point. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

You can get rain here, (in the Southwest) under high pressure because the moisture gets trapped in the high and forced up by the heating of the day into clouds. Maybe your issue is the dryness of the mountain air rather than the elevation? Many people get more/less congested from rapid changes in humidity. Dew point differences of 40-70 points are unusual outside the deserts/mountains, but here you can have a dry Summer day where it is 100 degrees but the dew point temperature is 40 degrees, for something like 8% relative humidity, and then the next day it might go to 92 degrees with a dew point temperature of 50, and all of the sudden relative humidity is way up.

There is a lot of warm water now below the surface of Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. I think winter may end up looking like 2012-13, with a lot of cold water by South America, but Nino 4 still fairly warm and Nino 3.4 either cold Neutral or only barely a La Nina. I kind of like 25.8-26.2C for Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb. To me, below 26.0C is a La Nina.

Albuquerque hit 101 yesterday - but that was sort of an underachievement really, as it actually did get to 94 by Noon. Typically you add 10 degrees from noon to the high here. Today may be the day though. If you look at the subsurface waters, there is no La Nina imminent, but Nino 3 is still cold and getting reinforced. The 2012-13 winter is a similar look to now, pretty cold right by South America but still pretty warm in Nino 4 and only cold neutral in Nino 3.4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

The local NWS actually has 104 now for July 12th. I'm skeptical that it will be that hot this late into the year. It hasn't been over 100 here in the July 7 - Sept 30 time frame since 2010. It has only happened twice since 2000, in 2003 and 2010. Hitting 100 exactly is a lot more common. But 104 would be top five for heat after week one of July. Initially, last week, it had looked like July 7 or so would see 100 degree heat, but it doesn't look like it will now. Today is certainly clear, it will be in the mid-90s. My rule for Albuquerque highs is that the temperature at noon is 10 degrees below the high. So 104 implies a 94 degree reading at Noon. I've been in Albuquerque since 2010 and I think that's only happened one day in 10 years. Today was 86 at noon, and sure enough it is 94 at 3 pm, and will probably get to 96. It's pretty hard to be 94 at Noon here, since the lows even on the hottest days, tend to drop to about 70 around 6 am. We'll see though.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5 01JUL2020 21.1-1.1 25.5-0.5 27.3-0.1 29.1 0.3 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 According to CPC's standard, Nino 3.4 was still cold Neutral in June. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2020 4 28.18 27.73 0.45 2020 5 27.65 27.85 -0.19 2020 6 27.36 27.65 -0.29

My guess is enough moisture will come up from the south to slow down the warm up on a couple of days, at least for parts of Eastern Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. The models favored strong monsoon activity over the mountains of old Mexico in July, so any mechanism that can bring the moisture up efficiently should bring relief to particularly hot highs, even if it is just via cloudiness. The GFS is pretty wet for eastern Colorado in particular over the next five days.

The Canadian has a pretty healthy La Nina in the monthly update. New forecast is on the left. Will be interesting to see what happens. I think this is too cold in Nino 4 at least.

Mid-80s today in late afternoon in late June in Albuquerque. I'll take it! CFS continues to insist on a broadly cold West / hot East pattern for July.

Nino 3.4 warmed up a lot this week. No La Nina yet. Nino 4 is of course invincible. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5

No 100 degree heat yet. We have had our three 95 or hotter days already though, as I mentioned here. It is kind of crazy how it works here, something like 64 days will be 90 or hotter in an average year, but only 21 will be 95 or hotter, and only 2.5 will be 100 or hotter. It just rapidly decays with each degree.

Doesn't look like June 2020 is going to hit 100 degrees in Albuquerque. Always good to see.

I'm expecting a weak La Nina for winter, but only because it seems difficult to get Nino 4 to be cold for a sustained period. If it ends up at 29.3C again the Fall/Winter, you can pretty much write off winter in the NE, as December will be warm, and then Feb is favored warm for a La Nina, unless the hurricane season goes ballistic. The warmth from the West if anything seems to be rebuilding. The initial wave of cold will get reinforced to the east for a bit, and then probably mix out a bit. Will need another wave of cold for a La Nina to sustain from Fall on. Nino 3 does look really cold for at least a little while though, maybe -1.0C or colder. Spatially, there just enough that much cold on the subsurface maps, even though it is intensely cold. The little patches of +0.5 to +1.0 are starting to get near the western part of Nino 3.4 again though.

Haven't looked in a few days, but it actually looked like June 2020 would see a lot more solar activity than last June. So the absolute floor of the solar cycle 12-month min will likely be the 12 months ending May 2020 - but we'll have to see. There are certain things that just don't seem to happen or happen more frequently at the minimum in a statistical sense. It has been snowing a lot in April here, but not in March in Albuquerque - late last snowfalls with little to snow in March are both effects that have unusual concentrations by portion of the solar cycle, with the p-values in a difference of proportion test at like 0.001, i.e. well under a 1% chance of being a fluke in the data v. a real effect.

The June pattern nationally is pretty dry. Even in NM, it is really just small areas of the Rio Grande Valley that have been wet this month. The CFS has been trending much colder in July for the West though. My outlook for June had the SE/NW cold, with the NE/MW warm, other areas near average. That'll be too cold for the Plains, but decent to good elsewhere. I think I had the June high for Albuquerque at 89.4F from the pure analogs, and through yesterday it was 90.8F. So I'll be a bit too cold, but not much. Sometimes I adjust the analogs warmer for the Earth warming, but whenever I try it here, it ends up being colder. June highs are warming ~3.5F/century here, so I would have added 1.4F based on the analog years I used for 90.8F if I had done it - but even that will likely be a bit too cold.

Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet. For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 Some warmth returning to Nino 4 is consistent with the subsurface recently. We're sort of in a 100-150W La Nina instead of a 120-170W (Nino 3.4) La Nina.