raindancewx

The CFS has a huge wet signal for 3/4 to 3/11 on its weekly run for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. That's roughly the time-frame I've been expecting the Nov 20-29 part of the pattern to repeat. We'll see.

Don't forget...the low solar + El Nino thing held last year too. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8 2019 3 Roughly a 90% chance of 16-48" for the season going by 2/19-5/31 records since the 1890s for Boston. So...33.8 is probably as decent a guess as any?

Hooray for math. As I've said...blending years with similar conditions for Sep minus Mar and May minus Apr produces good NAO predictions for winter.

GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.

Weeklies continue to show decay in Nino 3.4. It's hard to say if it will last - the subsurface animation is down. My suspicion is it won't. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 ~Record positive Arctic Oscillation in February with near record warmth in Nino 4 is an interesting/unusual combination for February. The two are opposite temperature signals for the US in March in large areas of the US. On the monthly data sets, February 1990, 1992, 1995, 2015, 2019 are similar, but the AO wasn't super positive in January in these years generally. The Oct 16-Nov 15 pattern has shown up, shifted West for February, so I'd expect Nov 16-Dec 15 to show up for March, shifted in some way. The warm storm forecast for me late this week is on track with the warm/wet storm on November 6th, roughly a 3.5 month lag still, generally +104 days, +/-3 is verifying pretty well.

If the low solar cycles are to continue for a while, and the PDO is to slowly trend negative, I think there are a lot of El Ninos like this one and the last one to come over the next 10-20 years fo the Northeast. The high solar/high PDO El Ninos will be different, but I don't know that there are that many of them near term.

The SOI crashes of late imply a very active late February period. We'll see how that goes. My 3.5 month repeat idea means that there should be some kind of big, wet/warm storm around February 23, given the big/wet/warm storm in early November. The late November pattern is early March on that time scale. If it verifies anything close to Nov 16-Nov 30 for moisture, it has the potential to be an all time wet March for the Southwest. I'm fairly optimistic for March. Almost every day has been below freezing in Albuquerque for at least a little while, for three months now. That's not going to immediately shut off, so we've got a real shot at March snow. The data supports it - if you sort Oct 1 - Feb 15 lows <=32F by year into the cold half, and the warm half, 83 and less is warm, and 84 and more is cold for the last 88 years. So the odds are far more favorable for (light) snow in March in years with more frequent lows <=32F. We're at 86 for 10/1-2/15, one of the highest figures in the last 25 years, behind only 2009-10, and tied with 2000-01 and 1997-98. I don't buy a very snowy March though, we've only topped three inches one time in a low solar year, in over 30 low solar years. # <=32F >0" >=1" >=2" >=3" >=4" >=5" >=6" >83 Oct-2/15 84.09% 52.27% 34.09% 27.27% 13.64% 11.36% 9.09% <84 Oct-2/15 47.73% 27.27% 22.73% 9.09% 6.82% 2.27% 2.27% P-value 0.0002 0.0083 0.1186 0.0135 0.1456 0.0454 0.0836 Years with snow each month from Nov-Feb, like 2019-20, also heavily favor snow in March, compared to all other years. Almost 90% of years with snow each month Nov-Feb see snow in March, compared to only 60% in all other years.

Here is the JISAO/Nate Mantua PDO update for January 2020 - negative. 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.23 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO My PDO indicator said ~ +0.5 for Nov-Apr. That looks fine.

The key period for New England is March 14-20. If you're going to get a big snow storm, I think it should be when the pattern that repeats the early December Boston snow repeats. Prior to that, there should be big rains/snows in the Southwest from a huge burst of subtropical moisture if the pattern continues to repeat. Might be too warm for a big snow event in New England given the warmth in the pattern without help from the -NAO though. My storm today/yesterday ties in exactly 104 days after a storm we had in late October, when a cold front came through at Midnight from the East, ended a slightly warm pattern for a very cold day without much moisture. Same exact thing today/yesterday. Prior storms since December have tied in with the lag at that exact distance, and god knows we don't have many storms here. If you use Boston, it should be December 3, 2019 +104 days. So, 28 for Dec, 31 for Jan, 29 for Feb, and then 16. So March 16th is the day to watch. We had near record rains/snows throughout the Southwest November 20-29, so that should happen about March 4-13 if the cycle repeats. March 4th is actually, over the past century, the second snowiest day of the year (by frequency) for large areas of New Mexico and the Southwest. We'll see.

Here is the European update for ENSO - looks to me like no real change in Nino 3.4. The predicted decline in Nino 4 has been shown for several months now and is much more interesting. The Jamstec site is changing looks like, so might be a little late to update this month. Long term, the pattern still appears to be cycling through at about a 104 day lag. I had a storm exactly 104 days ago yesterday in October.

Most of New Mexico got snow - Albuquerque did get a bit, but not much. This is the first time in several years the airport got accumulating snow with an east wind and I didn't. Still, the storm brought 0.35" to Albuquerque, biggest storm since November. The precipitation portion of my winter forecast is pretty close - we're at 1.00" for Dec-Feb, and I forecast 1.25" for Albuquerque. We'll see how close I get by the end of the month. Biggest lake in the state is set to be the most full it has been since 2009 after we pass the 2010 peak in a few days.

We'll see how it goes. I didn't really do a snow forecast for Spring. Been fairly happy with the snow forecast I had nationally for October.

https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook My Spring Forecast (Mar-May) for anyone curious. General idea is warmed 1954, 1993, 2005, 2019

Chinook, my sense is since rain will arrive first, the East wind won't be able to immediately destroy the precipitation. As it dries out the column of air, it cools, so it snows for a while. Once it is colder, it will stop, but it will still take a while. I do think the snow will stop for the whole city by 5 am or so. But I think there is a good window from 11 pm to 3-6 am where it is rain to snow. We were supposed to hit 53 today, and it only got to 49, so the transition may happen a bit faster than expected. I think 1-5", locally less for SE ABQ, locally more for the NW areas and highest elevations of the city (5,600-6,300 feet) is probably right, especially if the Euro is right with the snow it shows after the East wind dies off around 10 am tomorrow. At this point, I'd consider two inches of snow, with 0.5" of total liquid a big win, it would nearly verify my snow (8.8") and precipitation forecasts (1.25") for the winter from October for the city.

I've been fairly impressed with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19 for recent ocean/solar/weather conditions in the US. Had used three of those years in my winter forecast - it's the other three that screwed me up. With some adjustments for the record +AO, warmer oceans, and warming subsurface, I used that blend for my Spring forecast: https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook

https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook My Spring 2020 outlook. General idea is +1 for Mar-May for Rockies-West Coast compared to a 1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 blend, with the East +3 compared to that blend. Probably wetter than the blend in the SW & NE in March too. Some maps from the document -

It's updated at a different link. Nate Mantua sent me this a while ago and it's the same data as before through December 2019. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Big drop on the weekly data. But the subsurface 100-180W is still warm and warming. Nino 3 as the coldest anomaly is unusual. We're in like an El Nino sandwich, warm edges, cold middle. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2

You brought it up, so how much snow am I getting Chinook? I could see a coating to 2", or 4-8" - it just depends on if the moisture can beat the East wind. My guess is we'll have a few hours before and after the East wind with some snow. So I like 1-4" generally, and maybe some early tomorrow too, since the dew point is only 12, and we should fall to at least 40 pretty easily before moisture arrives.

The local NWS has Albuquerque in a Winter Storm Watch, along with much of New Mexico, for 3-8 inches of snow on Monday Night - Tuesday Night. The wind forecast has been trending weaker, but that still seems high for Albuquerque. I use Weather.US for the European wind forecasts by hour but it isn't loading the new Euro. Dew point is currently 16F. So even tomorrow morning may see some wet bulb snow. I think we could fall to 36-40 before any precipitation moves in early Monday. By that point, I think the dew point is still around 22. If were 36/37 with a dew point in the low 20s, we'll find a way to snow. Then it will go to rain after. In any case, should be some good precipitation at least.

The new Euro has a snow shadow for Albuquerque and a lot of the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. I actually think Monday morning may be a better shot for snow in the city. No fierce East wind. The Euro from 5 am today had dew points at 28 for 11 am today, the dew point was 21. So if it is over-estimating how wet the air is, we can wet bulb to 31 or 32 degrees and snow on Monday. 36 with a dew point of 23 is a reliable way to get snow here. Euro has 35-50 mph East winds for the airport at 7 am. I've never seen it snow here with an East wind that high. It's probably too windy for anything at the airport from 2 am to 9 am Tuesday if the Euro is right. 9 am to 1 pm looks good for some snow, and 10 pm to 2 am if it is cold enough. There were also like four storms here in January forecast to bring 0.25 - 0.50" moisture individually, and none of them verified that high. Best one was like 0.15". So I'm somewhat skeptical on the amounts of moisture shown. The 3-km NAM is pretty good here, we'll see what it has later tonight when the whole event is in range. My best guess is we fall to 36F or something 3 am Monday morning. Dew point is around 21-24 because it has been dry and highs are in the 60s lately, so lots of evaporation. Then precip moves in around 3 am - 9 am. We wet bulb to 30-32. The precipitation is snow until around 11 am/noon. If it sticks to the ground, it stays snow until 1-2 pm, and then stops for a few hours or goes to rain. Precip continues off/on into the evening, likely as rain. Then the East wind starts to come, slowly changing rain to snow from 9 pm to 2 am, but then it shuts off when the wind is too strong. No snow for a while with the wind, but then it returns late morning for a few hours. Then it all moves out around 2 pm Tuesday. My gut- 0.1-0.2" from 5 am to 2 pm Monday, temperatures 30-35, probably all snow. 0.05-0.20" 2 pm to 10 pm Monday - temperatures 36-44, rain. 0.03-0.08" 10 pm - 2 am Monday-Tues. Snow. Temps 30-35 Nothing 2 am to 9 am Tuesday. Winds out of the East 25-45 mph, gusts to 50-55. 0.05-0.15" 9 am-2 pm Tuesday. Snow. Temps 28-33. That would be 0.23" to 0.63"- the Euro has 0.4-0.6" - with 0.18" to 0.43" as snow. Probably 0.25" for most of the city. At temperatures listed, 1-4 inches of snow for the city, with some rain too.

The Nate Mantua/JISAO PDO isn't in yet, but the NOAA version of it is, and shows a big crash for January. The JISAO PDO usually moves in a similar way to the NOAA PDO, but with higher values. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201910 -0.96 201911 -0.28 201912 0.01 202001 -1.17

The Euro & GFS both have a lot of snow over the next 5-10 days for New Mexico & Colorado, virtually all of both states will see snow if they are right. This is through 11 am Tuesday on the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS.

General idea for Spring for our region is 1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 as a blend, but a bit warmer then the raw blend. For March, 1954, 2004, 2005 is the right idea.

This is all roughly in my (nearly complete) Spring forecast...but - The basic idea for me for March is that it should loosely resemble the mid-Nov to mid-Dec period. So starts out cold in the East, then warms up. I've been using 3.5 months (~107 days) as the estimate for this, but lately it's been more like 102 days. There are fairly strong indications for March that warmth will return to the West, but I think the subtropical jet will be shifted into the SW (NM/AZ) at times too, with a lot of moisture. Not every month here gets precipitation, but every time October is wetter than September, it has rained/snowed the following March (37/37) - we had that last year, and this year. September long-term is a much wetter month here than October - so it's a useful indicator, and statistically significant (far more likely to get heavy precipitation in March if Oct>Sept). ~Nov 16-Dec 15 is the March idea. An analog blend that looks similar to that nationally is March 1954, 2004, 2005. We had roughly 3.5x normal precipitation in that period - so the systems that come through should be somewhat different than in recent months if that repeats. See the resemblance? That pattern of dryness from TX to Detroit in December is actually pretty hard to re-create with similar ocean/solar conditions. For the West, a big -NAO in October like 2019 is a warm signal for the West. A big +AO in Jan/Feb is also a pretty strong warm signal for the SW in March. All that being said, Nino 3.4 not cooling during Spring when it is warm is more like a weakening La Nina than an weakening El Nino, and is similar to last year. So that favors cold shots eventually pushing out the Western warmth later in Spring. I'm still toying with it, but I think April might be incredibly warm nationally, despite the correlations shown below, I'm talking like 2/3 of the lower 48, at +4 to +8 or something. January/April usually have common tendencies nationally, and January is the most different period of the Oct-Feb cold season so far, no all-time record cold for the North this year in H2 January. At a lead time of a year, Nino 3.4, which was 9th warmest since 1950 last March, is also a pretty strong cold signal for the Northeast, and the deepest blue area shows up as cold in my blend for March. You can also see the hints of dryness across the South.

Looking at the Northeast records, it actually is pretty rare to get four snowy Marches in a row. Boston-NYC-Philly look like they were above normal in March 2017, 2018, 2019. So you'd have to bet against it for 2020. Will be interesting to see how that plays out, since the NAO indicator does still support a somewhat -NAO for March.