raindancewx

Looks third highest to me. But 2014 wasn't behind, same for a couple others. 1936 is the most recent year with a higher PDO value in November, and 1921 is listed as the highest. I was just playing with the ONI, AMO, and PDO values for Sept-Nov, it's very hard to find any year that matches all three. The PDO/ONI split isn't even the hard one, it's the AMO, it's super warm. If you split the three indexes into quarters, only 11 years are even top 1/4 matches across two of the three indexes. Looks something like this: Fall of… AMO PDO ONI 1937 0.358 0.40 0.2 1938 0.332 0.18 -0.7 1941 0.376 1.20 1.1 1944 0.359 -0.21 -0.4 1947 -0.022 0.43 -0.6 1983 -0.168 0.96 -0.8 1984 -0.304 0.65 -0.6 1995 0.110 0.45 -0.8 2003 0.385 0.45 0.4 2014 0.242 1.43 0.5 2015 0.288 1.42 2.0 2016 0.420 0.96 -0.8 1942 may actually be the best match overall, after a double El Nino, Modoki Moderate La Nina, very warm Atlantic, positive PDO. But it seems wetter/colder than that year despite the warmth that year. If you just normalize the indexes into rankings against how close the rank was to Fall 2016, these are the best 10 matches: AMO PDO ONI AMO RK PDO RK ONI RK 2016 0.420 0.96 -0.8 0 0 0 1938 0.332 0.18 -0.7 10 31 8 1995 0.110 0.45 -0.8 33 18 5 1942 0.214 0.37 -1.2 24 22 21 1944 0.359 -0.21 -0.4 4 45 21 1983 -0.168 0.96 -0.8 68 1 5 1931 0.218 0.05 -0.5 23 35 17 2003 0.385 0.45 0.4 2 17 58 1937 0.358 0.40 0.2 5 21 55 1947 -0.022 0.43 -0.6 52 20 12

So...the PDO spiked to 1.88 in November, up from 0.56 in October. Not exactly a common combination with the weak La Nina conditions we are seeing. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Looks like it is the second largest rise in the PDO value from Oct-->Nov since 1931. Years with big rises from Oct to Nov seem to be pretty volatile overall for the PDO. Year Oct Nov Nov - Oct NDJFMA 1933 -1.19 0.55 1.74 0.55 2016 0.56 1.88 1.32 1962 -1.55 -0.37 1.18 -0.46 2002 0.42 1.51 1.09 1.69 1953 -1.09 -0.03 1.06 -0.79 1998 -1.39 -0.52 0.87 -0.45 1986 1.00 1.77 0.77 1.91 2000 -1.30 -0.53 0.77 0.17

I want some pictures of any weird Blue Norther cloud phenomena/mirages this winter. Don't think this setup is going to be coming back for a few years after this winter.

It's interesting looking at the meteograms on Weatherbell from the EPS. Says ABQ gets 6.0" snow from Dec 13-Jan 26 (+70%), and that precip is 1.18" in the same time frame (+90%). Would be a warm/wet period, given the temps are showing as +1F to +2F in the same period. Wet anomalies get stronger in the northern/western part of the states. Cooler too the further north & west into NM you go. The 46 day period shows the warm anomalies weakening in NM but growing in the SE, so maybe TX will be perpetually stuck between the two ridges trying to take in cold shots from the north?

The next week to ten days will be cold east of the Rockies, and then the blow torch we have in the SW right now will follow the cold out of the Southwest. I'm assuming it cools to average or genuine cold anomalies after the 18th-20th in the SW once again.

The mean high for Albuquerque Dec 1-8 has been ~3.7F below the 1931-2015 normal. Will be interesting to see if it can really recover to +2F to +3F for the month as Accuweather shows now. I think the coming warmth in the next few days is real, but overdone beyond that. Been pretty impressively cold in the West so far in December if you look at the Weatherbell Satellite maps (1981-2010 anomalies) or the US Anomaly maps (NE US Regional Climate Center). My mean highs eight days into meteorological winter (DJF) are 6.3F colder than last year. Over the 90-day winter period that's already a shift of ~0.55F (8/90)(-6.3) from last year that should help against the coming and future warm ups.

It's been fun watching Accuweather's monthly outlook for my area. Went from 43.0F for a mean Dec high (Nov 30) all the way up to 50.0F (Dec 6). My Oct forecast had NM pretty warm/dry in Dec, which looks decent now even after the cold start. Certainly doesn't look like any major storms here through 12/16/16. My general idea for this winter is the cold is in the MW/East in Nov-Dec (was mostly the SE in Nov) and then it retrogrades pretty to the West in January, and then it kind of centers between the Mississippi and the Continental Divide in February. We've been seeing pretty different setups to last year so far, and for all the warmth in the Super El Nino, Jan 1 - Jan 22 was pretty cold in the East in 2016. Would expect mild to warm temps in that period for them, with a colder West Coast.

ONI value came in -0.8C for SON. So...we have a weak Modoki La Nina, with the Eastern Tropical Pacific in borderline El Nino conditions (warm), a non-cannonical, but likely warm PDO (the warm ring and tongue are a bit off the historical norms for placement), and the AMO (ESRL long) came in at maybe the warmest value ever for November since 1856 (0.400 - didn't check - just eyeballed). AMO is bad for moisture in the SW, Modoki La Nina is near average, and warm PDO is good for moisture. Not really a terrible set up for the winter, especially if the cold air spills into the east and cools the Atlantic as the La Nina weakens?

I gotta tell you guys, for the last week or so the La Nina has looked pretty ragged. It's too early to know, but I think it peaked in SON. Will be interesting to see the value for that period on Monday. The years with La Nina or La Nina ish conditions in SON that then weakened ("warmed") by DJF since 1930 are: 1931, 1947, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, 1989, 1992. Three of those years come up a fair amount in temperature/precip trends this year in my area - 1978, 1983, 1989. Also, 1931, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1978, 1983, and 1992 - all either immediately followed or preceded an El Nino, so that's kind of interesting to think about in terms of the interference to La Nina / La Nina-ish conditions. I used <=-0.2C in SON in Nino 3.4, followed by a warmer reading in Nino 3.4 in DJF as my thresholds, and I threw out the years that were <=-1.2C in SON, since this is a much weaker event. It's actually an average to pretty wet pattern for everyone but California & Maine.

So I matched "wet" Novembers in non-El Nino years to conditions observed this year in Albuquerque. It's like dead on, every month except for August, when most of the city probably did have 1.2-1.5" rain, but the airport only had 0.86". The signal is pretty strong for an above normal January in terms of precip here, and the implied storm track is pretty interesting nationally. Jez - you should read some books and then research what you don't understand. That's what I do!

My outlook for December in October was the first image ("December 2016 US Outlook") But now I think this is on the table ("December Scenario - Worst") I'm a bit annoyed as the outlook was about spot on in Oct & Nov. The new December map is pretty close to what I expected for temperature profiles in January. Accuweather has been showing Dec temp profiles in much of the West at around 2-6F below normal for a while now. Albuquerque was shown last night at ~43F for a mean high, against the 1931-2015 average of 47.8F. Today it shows 43.8F. Denver, Cheyenne and Albuquerque all look around 3-5F below normal by their reckoning.

The oceans aren't a great match to 1978, but the Atlantic was closer than I expected it to be. 1983 is fairly close, but off in certain spots. I like a blend of 1937, 1943, 1959, and 1983 for the oceans as an ~80% match. It's a bit off in the Western Atlantic/Western Pacific. I formalized my "June to November" observed highs v. forecast thing - for the last 30 years, it shows a small amount of skill for forecasting seasonal temps here. It's something like 80% confidence at +/-3F for it's DJF estimate (range is 12F historically, 44F-56F, so it cuts out maybe half the uncertainty?), and it's still ~67% at 2.3F. It's about 15% better than guessing the average (49.5-49.6F) each year. Anyway, it says ABQ has a mean high of 48.6F - and thus an 80% chance we are within 3F of that. Against the 1931-32 to 2015-16 winter time frame, that's -4F to +2F - a full 2.3F colder than last year, when the hindcast came up with 50.9F +/-3F. The Spring has either less variability or this is a better tool for Spring, as it's +/-2.25F for MAM 80% of the time, and +/-1.8F 67% of the time. Warm Spring is slightly favored in my area, but likely near average. I keep harping on 1978 because it is a very strong match for my last six months of temperatures here - but in my area it wasn't a particularly cold winter. I'm somewhat partial to lumping winters after two El Ninos in a row together - it takes longer to cool the oceans down than in a normal El Nino to Neutral/La Nina transition. So I look pretty hard at the winters starting 1941, 1942, 1959, 1970, 1978, 1988. Just from that list, 1942, 1959, 1978, and 1988 are all somewhat similar to now, at least for my observable weather.

Do any of you like 1978-79 as an analog? It was a borderline La Nina (-0.4C) in Fall of 1978, but it weakened to Neutral in winter. It followed two El Nino winters (76-77, 77-78), and occurred after a reversal in the long standing sign of the PDO (1976/2013 - although the more recent flip seems to be a spike more than a 30-year flip). I ask because the La Nina seems to be weakening, we're following two El Ninos...and the cold experienced in the US in January 1979 (-8F to -20F over most of the US) has been occurring over Asia for the past two months. January 1979 was stupid cold in the middle of the country - including TX, OK, etc.

Some flurries around Albuquerque tonight. Don't think it stuck anywhere - very light, above freezing. Always amazing to watch the dry air do it's thing, went from 37F with a 27F dew point to 35F with a 29F dew point and snow in about two minutes. Fell to 33F with a 30F dew point before it stopped snowing.

I was hindcasting my "objective" match testing the other day by mean highs, and although it doesn't work nationally, it does seem to show some skill from roughly TX to AZ to OK to Southern UT/CO/NV, and then quite a bit of skill the closer you get to ABQ. It doesn't really show any skill for precip, just temperatures. What I wanted to show though, was that last year, the temperature profile behaved more like a blend of La Nina years from June-November, and then remained La Nina-ish/warm in Winter and to a lesser extent Spring. The temperature blend this year, despite being nominally in a La Nina, is much more of a weak El Nino / warm Neutral signal, which favors a much colder winter, maybe ~2.5-3.5F colder than last year. The six closest mean high transitions last year from June to November favored a winter (Dec-Feb) mean high of ~50.9F in Albuquerque. It was 51.4F. The average is 49.5F. So the method identified slightly warmer than normal correctly. This year, the method says 48.6F - which is colder than normal, and 2.4F colder than last year.

Panel A is the best match to my mean highs from June-Nov carried forward to Dec-Feb Panel B is the best match from June-Sept mean highs, the monsoon, ENSO, years since ABQ had >9.6" snow, and the monsoon+ENSO Panel C is the best match for my winter ocean expectations - Cold Neutral to Weak La Nina, Modoki, Neutral PDO, Warm AMO, after two El Ninos, Dry Monsoon Panel D is the best match for borderline La Ninas only: -0.4C to -0.6C in DJF So far, A has been pretty good for Nov, with B good for Oct. My historical testing of these methods show "C" should become most accurate later in the winter, with "B" fading after December to irrelevance. D should be relatively decent. But I lean towards a split of "A" & "C" for the winter, plus 1-2F in the SE. Essentially, A early, then C late. Anyway, best bet for the West: WA/OR: slightly cooler than normal (-0F to -2F) ID/WY/MT: pretty cold (-2F to -4F) CO/WY: cool (-1F to -3F) CA: normal (-1F to +1F) AZ/NM/NV: normal (-2F to +2F)

Looking back at non-El Nino years that were relatively wet in Albuquerque during Sept-Nov produces an interesting list of years: 1935, 1938, 1978, 1983, 1988, 1992, 1998. Barring more rain, or our first snow this month, those years had 2.4-3.2 inches of precipitation from Sept-Nov. We're at 2.8 inches of precip in Sept-Nov 2016. I consider 1938, 1983, 1988, 1998 to be La Ninas. 1992 & 1935 are sort of warm Neutrals that wanted to be El Ninos, with 1978 following a double El Nino as a Neutral year. This is probably the wettest November NM has ever had in a La Nina, so blending in Neutral years seems appropriate. 1978, 1983, 1988, 1992, 1998 - these years all followed an El Nino. Pretty cold winter in the US if you blend those seven years together in the winter. Most areas 1-3F below normal, 3-5F below in Montana and the Upper Midwest, +/-1F in the SE. Very wet in much of the west & the east, drier from El Paso to Detroit.

This is an interesting forecast idea - and consistent with what I put out in October: - Warm early - Colder late - Lots of variability for where cold/warmth is in any given moment https://riskpulse.com/blog/2016-2017-winter-weather-outlook/

Lots of lightning, heavy rain, mist and hail here tonight in the Land of Enchantment. Snow above ~7,000 to ~7,500 feet. Wettest November in Albuquerque since 2004 with over a week to go.

Now that its getting relatively cold - two frosts here in ABQ) - I dug out & updated my "gambler's snow tables" for Albuquerque. It's a good way later in the season to see if the computer models are spitting out bull. The table reminded me how awful most La Ninas are in the Southwest for snow. I'm 5,300 feet above sea level, but the odds of getting even 3.5" snow in a MONTH, not even a storm, a MONTH, are only a coin-flip in a La Nina based on 1931-32 to 2015-16. One of these years we're going to get actual notable precipitation in March again and the items I've marked overdue should begin to fall more readily. We haven't had a March within even 20% of the long-term average (0.5") since 2007, so it would be nice if it happened this year. One thing is for sure, given the bubkis precipitation we get last March, even as it snowed in Guadalajara - check out Nieves en Guadalajara on twitter - we can't get less precipitation in March than last year.

The JAMSTEC (Japan's model) has trended much wetter for NM/CO/TX for the winter. New Mexico went from 0.1-0.6mm below normal/day for 90 days (0.35-2.1 inches of precip below normal) to w/in 0.1mm/day of average for 90 days, i.e. w/in 0.35" of normal. Pretty big shift towards moisture for us. The West Coast looks a lot drier than before too, as does the East Coast. Bit cooler too, from "very warm" (+3F) to "slightly warm (+1F).

If it makes any sense, I think the pattern of 1983-84 is a decent match, but the warmer Earth/less ice against 1983-84 is part of why I have the winter fairly backloaded away from the east coast. I had NM/AZ and much of the interior west/mountainous areas warm Oct-Dec. Doesn't really look wrong. I do think TX starts to cool off a week or two before we do though. The cold coming off Asia should eventually cool the Pacific enough to allow the Arctic ice to build up pretty rapidly - especially since I think this winter has real blocking...but it is transient and no where near permanent.

The PDO went up in October (JISAO) to 0.56 It took me a while, but Dec-Feb 1937-38, 1943-44, 1959-60, 1983-84 work well as a good match for the oceanic pattern right now. Those years had a PDO value in Nov-Apr of 0.58, an ONI value of -0.28 in DJF, and an AMO value of 0.146 from Nov-Apr. Central/Modoki La Nina, weak, cool pool off Japan & Russia, West Coast warmth wrapping west south of Japan cold pool, stripe of warmth along US east coast, cooler in eastern Atlantic. Oceans fairly cold south of the equator. It's not a perfect match, but eyeballing it, I'd say it's 80-85%?

Looks to me like the PDO is heading positive again, with the AMO weakening a bit. Both good for New Mexico & the SW. The La Nina is still pretty clearly a Modoki, and weak. Not sure how long it lasts either, I think it may peak Oct-Dec, or Nov-Jan.

This will be the latest it's ever dropped to 40F or lower in ABQ too. Can't speak for TX, but warm Octobers, especially if October is nearly as warm as Sept, tend to favor big snow late (Jan-Apr) and cold/snowy February in particular. This actually seems to be known, as it is a saying. Haven't tested the other folklore though. http://www.stormfax.com/wxfolk.htm We've had (already) a wet November here - which is pretty rare in La Nina / Neutral years, but it does tend to favor near normal snow overall.