raindancewx

He's posting the same images in each thread...but if you go back far enough he says he is weatherfeen and is upset with the Mods?

Have had nearly half of inch of rain - not freezing rain, not sleet, not snow - with this system so far. But the dew point is finally dropping into the 30s, night is coming, and a trowal is forming. May get some wet snow later on, although wouldn't really stick. Mountains got some snow out of this, but was a pretty warm system for mid-January with snow levels above 7,500 feet for most of the event. This winter (Dec-Feb) is now well above average for Dec 1 - Jan 15 here. We average 0.70 inches precip in that period. Currently at 1.05", with a bit more likely tonight. Been remarkable how little snow we've had with the moisture, but I never liked the first half of the winter for ABQ anyway, second half is where it's at or at least that was my forecast idea.

I'm not sure how skillful the Jamstec is really. JB likes it in El Ninos. When I look at it, it seems to show some skill for precip in the SW (AZ/NM/CO/UT) but less so for temps.

For anyone curious, the Jamstec did trend wetter for some areas in the Spring.

European model has New Mexico, especially the mountains, getting a lot of snow the next ten days. It's great to see it. My analogs had a concentration of snowstorms in New Mexico around 1.29 to 2.3, so I have that period targeted for something big as well. Much of the snow shown below is with the system Friday Night to Monday Morning.

PDO came in at 1.17 for December (JISAO) fell big time from November (1.88) http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

I think Bill Gray assumed the AMO would be negative (for 30 years or so) by 2020 - still time for him to be right. I've seen papers from him in the late 80s claiming it would positive by 1995. There are other people who think it happens later in the 2020s. But it's not far. I kind of like 1940/1997 as the same position in the "climate clock", with 2017 thus akin as something like 1960 +/-3 years given the fluctuations in ENSO/solar.

The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s.

Amazing what snow and clouds can do up here, was supposed to be near 50F today, never got about 36F. Lows have finally been in the teens in Albuquerque. Got down to -33F this morning in Angel Fire (8600 feet up) - pretty cold even up there.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Looks like the La Nina did weaken in December by this measure btw. Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures Last 12 Months MONTH NIÑO 1+2 NIÑO 3 NIÑO 4 NIÑO 3.4 TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM January 2016 25.93°C (78.67°F) 1.41°C (2.54°F) 28.21°C (82.78°F) 2.58°C (4.64°F) 29.65°C (85.37°F) 1.35°C (2.43°F) 29.17°C (84.51°F) 2.60°C (4.68°F) February 2016 26.81°C (80.26°F) 0.67°C (1.21°F) 28.36°C (83.05°F) 1.99°C (3.58°F) 29.55°C (85.19°F) 1.45°C (2.61°F) 29.12°C (84.42°F) 2.40°C (4.32°F) March 2016 27.57°C (81.63°F) 0.93°C (1.67°F) 28.70°C (83.66°F) 1.57°C (2.83°F) 29.53°C (85.15°F) 1.34°C (2.41°F) 28.90°C (84.02°F) 1.68°C (3.02°F) April 2016 25.83°C (78.49°F) 0.23°C (0.41°F) 28.34°C (83.01°F) 0.84°C (1.51°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.89°C (1.60°F) 28.87°C (83.97°F) 1.09°C (1.96°F) May 2016 24.55°C (76.19°F) 0.27°C (0.49°F) 27.11°C (80.80°F) 0.03°C (0.05°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.60°C (1.08°F) 28.15°C (82.67°F) 0.30°C (0.54°F) June 2016 23.17°C (73.71°F) 0.29°C (0.52°F) 26.31°C (79.36°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) 29.36°C (84.85°F) 0.52°C (0.94°F) 27.53°C (81.55°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) July 2016 21.79°C (71.22°F) 0.17°C (0.31°F) 25.14°C (77.25°F) -0.48°C (-0.86°F) 29.06°C (84.31°F) 0.26°C (0.47°F) 26.73°C (80.11°F) -0.49°C (-0.88°F) August 2016 21.03°C (69.85°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.53°C (76.15°F) -0.46°C (-0.83°F) 28.68°C (83.62°F) 0.00°C (0.00°F) 26.28°C (79.30°F) -0.54°C (-0.97°F) September 2016 20.87°C (69.57°F) 0.53°C (0.95°F) 24.67°C (76.41°F) -0.18°C (-0.32°F) 28.48°C (83.26°F) -0.21°C (-0.38°F) 26.11°C (79.00°F) -0.61°C (-1.10°F) October 2016 21.18°C (70.12°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.47°C (76.05°F) -0.45°C (-0.81°F) 28.26°C (82.87°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 25.96°C (78.73°F) -0.73°C (-1.31°F) November 2016 21.68°C (71.02°F) 0.09°C (0.16°F) 24.58°C (76.24°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 28.27°C (82.89°F) -0.37°C (-0.67°F) 26.10°C (78.98°F) -0.55°C (-0.99°F) December 2016 23.25°C (73.85°F) 0.43°C (0.77°F) 24.75°C (76.55°F) -0.39°C (-0.70°F) 28.35°C (83.03°F) -0.14°C (-0.25°F) 26.15°C (79.07°F) -0.42°C (-0.76°F) Dec - Nov Difference 1.57°C 0.34°C 0.17°C 0.01°C 0.08°C 0.23°C 0.05°C 0.13°C 2.83°F 0.61°F 0.31°F 0.02°F 0.14°F 0.41°F 0.09°F 0.23°F

The kids here got a snow day because the dusting to 2 inches of snow came when it was 15-20F so it stuck to the roads. If any of you Texans want to ski, these are amazing numbers for a La Nina here - although the Gila Wilderness needs some help. Have a theory they may do well in Feb/Mar though.

I went for a walk once it started snowing here. It completely froze to my beard and I had little snow icicles coming down my face. New for me. We had borderline Blue Norther conditions - 45F at midnight to 16F at 4 am. 2-3 inches of snow on the ground, 1-2 on the road since it was 16-20F when most of it fell.

One of these damned years it is going to snow a lot in the mountains in March like it supposed to, but I don't think it is this year, so Jan 20 - Feb 20 is kind of my target for big snow here this year.

NWS ABQ call. I'm on board. WPC says my area of town (NE) has a non-zero (10-20%) shot at 4"+, but most likely we get 1-3" city wide or flurries to 2".

European thinks New Mexico does pretty well with the next storm. Would be 1-4" for Albuquerque. I start to trust the models for snow when they are within 72 hours, and this is essentially saying hours 60-66 are snowy for Albuquerque. NAM shows a boatload of snow too, but it only goes out to 60 hours. NAM actually tends to do pretty well with snow here. GFS isn't far off...just less snow in ABQ.

Sometimes I think the MEI/ONI are too focused on the actual observed values. I think the "weather" we experience may in fact be more determined by the change in the base state year over year in the winter. Going from an ONI of +2.2C to -0.7C or whatever it ends up at for DJF is one of the greatest year over year falls in the history of the ONI index, and the years with the big drop offs here behave very La Nina-y here. The handful of weak La Ninas or Neutrals that come after a very strong La Nina here are actually pretty decent winters a lot of the time, 1943, 1974, 2011 and a few others come to mind.

For anyone curious - the Oct/Nov/Dec ONI value remained constant at -0.8C. Just updated. It's a weak La Nina, but not "borderline" really. Was a little surprised it didn't weaken to -0.6C/-0.7C http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

After the massive spike in November, the PDO has weakened quite a bit in December according to NOAA. Will be good seeing the JISAO value in a few weeks. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ Expecting the AMO to drop too, not a whole lot of months like Nov 2016 where it reached >=0.400 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

I'm fairly optimistic for the late winter / early Spring. The La Nina signature looks like it weakened quite a bit in Oct-Dec, and the Atlantic temperature anomalies have cooled quite a bit in the last six weeks from near record warmth. Both are good for storms taking a southern track more consistently. By my count, Nino 3.4 has been above the La Nina threshold for 33 of the last 90 days, including 19 times in December. Expecting OND to come in around -0.5C to -0.6C, and then NDJ to be -0.5 or -0.4C at this point. More generally, even with the huge snows in late Feb 2015 in New Mexico, we've had three torch Februarys in a row here. I'm expecting a correction this year, even if it is only to "average" and note cold. The big rains/snows have been coming in 45 and 90 day increments though, so I wouldn't be shocked if February ended up snowy/rainy and cold given how November was. CPC has half of Arizona and NW New Mexico favored to be "wet" in January which is not exactly La Nina like, so even they be recognizing it is deteriorating. It is a bit similar to 1978 in that respect, as 1978 had a respectable La Nina in Fall that collapsed in Winter even though the rest of the Atlantic/Pacific are pretty different. New Canadian should be out in an hour or so, will be interesting to see what it thinks is going to happen. Suspect it will trend colder in the middle of the country and wetter in the West. Edit: It is wetter in the West!

Looks like the drought in much of California is shrinking. Pretty good match of the classic 'AMO/PDO' both positive drought expectation map except in the NW, due to the La Nina flavor. East Coast, California, Colorado drought definitely matches. May end up being a really nasty thunderstorm season in Spring if it stays warm/dry in the SE with big storms coming into the NW/SW

A lot of the years I like for the Southwest had strong systems coming through in January & February - and it's been ages since the mountains of northern New Mexico had their snowiest month in March, which is when it should happen based on history, so expecting something to break through in the next three months in a big way. The week from Jan 28 - Feb 3 has a boatload of snowy systems in the analogs for my area for what it's worth. Also, MJO, or just some other natural cycling seems to be sending major wetness to the SW every 45-days or so - Aug-->>late Sept--->Nov-->late Dec-->Feb. So if there is blocking in January, with the MJO cooperating, we may be in for some fun times. November was incredibly wet here, just wasn't cold - if we get the November pattern here with cold anomalies between now & March we get buried in snow.

I was playing around with projecting seasonal snow totals for Albuquerque the other day, and I came up with six variables that account for ~78% (r squared = 0.78) of the variation in snow in a given Oct-May season here. They are hard to figure out, but have been asking people on Twitter, and they've done a decent job so far - quite close on first snow date. Essentially: a) ONI in DJF (I used ONI estimates from 1931-32 to 1949-50 also) Precipitation in DJF c) Mean High in DJF d) Precipitation in August + Precipitation in October (as one variable - combined) e) First measurable snow as a date (Oct 1 = 1, Oct 2 = 2, etc, measurable means >=0.1" snow in 24 hrs ending midnight) f) Snowy Day Frequency (how many days had >=0.1" snow from Oct-May, day is 24 hrs ending midnight) ONI has some effect on most of the other variables, particularly b, d, and f. Weak effect on c too. F is the strongest correlation to snow overall, but adding the other variables helps a lot, because you can have 10 days with each day averaging an inch...or two inches...or half an inch. Variable B/D have some control over frequency. Generally: A --> Strong relationship to total snow, and if the top month in the season is very snowy, i.e. El Ninos usually have one big snow month here, which leads to a big seasonal total. B --> Reinforces/contradicts the frequency variable, and also adjusts intensity of that variable, i.e 15 snows in a winter with 0.70" precipitation won't be that great. C --> Some influence on snow intensity on the days it snows, via snow ratios (15:1 more likely if cold?), and some influence on Spring snow likelihood. D --> Lots of rain, lots of snow in Jan-Apr, especially March, and overall. March snow virtual lock if rainy. Little rain, snow shuts down fast after December. In between...can go either way. E --> Literally an indicator of whether it snowed in November or not. Snow in November usually indicates a snowier than average Oct-May period. No snow by mid-Dec usually indicates average to below average snow. Roughly speaking, snow by Nov 10 - OK, first snow Nov 11 - 30 - Ideal, first snow Dec 1-14 - OK, first snow after Dec 14 - bad. F --> More is better, but how much better depends on the other factors. With more snows, odds of a big snow from one system increase too. An ideal snow season, according to the model, that is possible based on conditions that have been observed in the past 85 years for each of the six variables, would produce 47 inches of snow from October to May - would need a big El Nino, with early snow, lots of rain in August & October, lots of days with snow, a cold winter, and a wet winter. The long & the short of this is some of the factors look **better** than last year despite the La Nina. We had an earlier first snow at the airport, and more rain in August & October. Both support more snow in the shoulder months (Nov/Mar) - it did snow a tiny bit in Nov. Suspect this is a colder winter than last year too which helps, as it probably won't torch in February for a third year in a row, and January looks average to cold, with December mild/warm. This is what the hindcast v. observed discrepancies look like overall. Average error is +/-2.2", 87% shot at being within 4 inches in 85 years.

NOAA likes the middle of January for wetness in much of the West. Here is hoping it verifies, snow pack here is only ~77% of normal even with the recent storms.

1983 continues to look really strong as an analog in my area - we have a real shot at a white Christmas here. Since 1931 as far as I can tell the city has only had four measurable snows on Christmas, 1939, 1962, 1974, and 1983. 1974 is by far the least crappy of all La Ninas out here for snow - 16.5" snow in ABQ.

So it turns out that having intense warmth in the upper Midwest/Montana in December is a good sign for big snows in the Southwest in March...sure enough it's super cold up there this year. Not good.