raindancewx

Euro has been trending toward a coherent MJO wave through the 'good' phases for interesting weather 1-2-3. In March, one is a strong wet signal (70% composite for NM shows up), and two is a strong cold signal. CPC agrees, and shows a cold wet pattern coming up mid month.

I know the models continue to show a La Nina, but Nino 4 remains at essentially record warmth, and the subsurface (100-180W, down to 200m-300m) is still very warm. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 My Spring analogs actually point to a pretty bad hurricane season, and they had March pretty warm centered on the middle of the US, which seems right. Will be interesting to see how hurricane season plays out.

The GFS has what I call the 'legendary' pattern. Waves of subtropical moisture moving into New Mexico. Days on end. Cold enough for heavy snow in the mountains. I don't think I've ever seen a model depict this much moisture in New Mexico consistently in a non-monsoon month. It's probably way too much moisture, but verbatim, the mountains over 8,500 would get a foot of cement, and the highest mountains might get 3-5 feet, especially if the backdoor cold front helps wring out the moisture. That small area by Los Alamos is 3.0-3.5" precipitation, and it would be mostly snow.

Here is a look at winter (left) - my Spring analogs from February +2F were intended to match winter/March, and that looks promising so far. I was generally 0-2F too cold for highs in the West in my forecast, with the area between the Mississippi and the Appalachians 6-8F too cold. Rest of the US generally 2-4F too cold. In a weighted (spatial) sense, I'd say I was around 3.5F too cold nationally. I did warm up the Northern Plains from my analogs because (I said this back in the Fall) back to the 1890s, there have never been four severely cold winters up there. They had a slightly cold February, but pretty warm for the Dakotas/Montana this year, unlike the last three. I did not have the South, West Coast, or New England cold - the pattern in February was almost identical to my seasonal winter blend from October, but it didn't show up enough in the other months.

Fairly promising for mountain snow along the NM/CO border over the next week. Timing is exactly right for the 3.5 month lag of the late Nov pattern. Also follows some big time SOI crashes, and the MJO is relatively favorable too.

CPC ONI page updated - +0.5C for DJF. Third period with El Nino conditions by ONI. March should be warm enough for JFM to be El Nino conditions too. Feb-Apr is the only question really - but I think we get it.

The models are now showing what amounts to record rains for 3/8 to 3/12 in the Southwest, which is literally the repeat of the late November pattern. We'll see if it verifies, but it is supported by the huge SOI crashes in late February that were similar to what happened in November. That 32 point drop is going to spit out a huge storm, it's comparable to last year ahead of the bomb cyclone and the drop pre-Blizzard 1993. 1 Mar 2020 1008.31 1007.85 -17.47 -3.09 -3.24 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76 26 Feb 2020 1013.13 1005.05 16.04 -1.72 -2.98

The European & GFS both have huge precipitation for New Mexico for the week starting 3/8. This is consistent with the big SOI crashes 10 days prior. Also, the pattern is now at 3.5 months of a lag to late November, when Albuquerque had near two inches of precipitation from 11/20-11/29. The pattern has been repeating pretty reliably at a 3.5 month since December looked like mid Aug-mid Sept. 14 point drop 2/26-2/28 and 2/27-2/28, 32 point drop 2/27-2/29, 19.5 point drop 2/28 to 3/1, 18 point drop 2/28-2/29 - those are all enormous by historical standards, and similar to the magnitude of the November crashes. The early November, 30 point one day crash preceded that crazy Blue Norther (around 11/12 I think?) by 10 days. 1 Mar 2020 1008.31 1007.85 -17.47 -3.09 -3.24 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76 26 Feb 2020 1013.13 1005.05 16.04 -1.72 -2.98

2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -3.20 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 QBO updated - still looks like 2002-03 and 2004-05. It's a 27.15C El Nino by the looks of it for winter - just about +0.55C to +0.60C by the standard CPC uses if the final Nino 3.4 value is 27.15C. The waters below Nino 3.4 are still warm, but the cold is definitely building around that area. Using the 1951-2010 means for Nino 3.4, the Oct-Feb period has been an El Nino. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 Winters are generally warm after El Ninos in the US along the West Coast, this year was no exception. More interesting to see the lack of cold in the blue zones, but that's likely because most El Ninos are followed by La Ninas. The pattern in February is pretty close to what I had for whole winter (warm coasts, cold interior NW, through the Rockies and southern/central plains, but not into MT, ND, SD) but unfortunately it came too late.

Subsurface for Dec-Feb, in the 100-180W zone at the equator, 0-300m below the surface, is like a blend of 1992-93 (x2), 2001-02 (x2), 2004-05, 2014-15. Of course, that blend featured a cold East/warm West. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt The closest objective year for the subsurface was 1985-86 - a very hot West to merely warm East in March. But the heat core should be east of March 1986 in 2020. 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2014 0.54 0.15 0.83 Mean 0.34 0.52 0.59 2019 0.34 0.51 0.56

Canadian says La Nina develops in July. Trended colder for Nino 3.4 for the next year on the 3/1 update.

Canadian is hinting at a wet March for NM - lots of 'wetter than normal' right near the border of NM/TX/MX. That's usually a wet pattern near the boundaries of the cold/warm zones. Huge SOI drops recently support activity around 3/9-3/10, which is the 3.5 month lag for the late November storminess in the SW. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

This winter has been remarkably average for Albuquerque - near average precipitation, near average snow, near average winter high, even the number of cold mornings is near average. 6.5" / 1.17" / 49.7F / 94-95 (pending 2/29) those are total snow Oct-Feb, DJF precipitation, Oct-Feb lows <=32F. Here are the 1931-32 to 2018-19 year averages for the same period: 7.5" / 1.30" / 49.5F/ 92 (arguably 93 in a leap year) For the past 30-years, the number of freezing lows is pretty high (83 is average for Oct-Feb), and the snow is closer to average (6.9"). Average high for the 30-years ending 2018-19 is 50.3F, so a bit cold in the context of recent winters, but also a bit dry (1.33"). The SOI did see a massive one-day crash yesterday as a Typhoon/tropical storm moved away from Darwin, Australia. Will be interesting to see if there is a big storm around March 9th in the SW. Typically, after a 10 point or higher SOI crash in one-two days, the zone between LA & Amarillo, from 30-37N will see a big storm in 10 days. Several of the SOI crashes preceded huge storms in the SW US and Mexico last November, and that was the start of the transition to the (brief) snowier New England pattern. I think there needs to be a period of enhancement of the subtropical jet, and then if there is a big SOI spike when it is enhanced, there should be a big Nor'easter or two, probably mid month. This is last November. The heavy Lake Effect snow is somewhat similar to the Nov 12 event 2019 305 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 2019 306 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 2019 307 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 (crash 307-308 before the great mid-month Blue Norther) https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-11-08-arctic-cold-outbreak-mid-november-record-midwest-south-east 2019 308 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 2019 309 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 2019 310 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 2019 311 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 2019 312 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 2019 313 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 2019 314 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 (similar to 2/27-2/28 SOI crash of ~14 in one day. 10-days ahead of a huge wet Nov storm in the SW) 2019 315 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 2019 316 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 2019 317 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 2019 318 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 2019 319 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 2019 320 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 2019 321 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 (this three day period preceded one of the biggest SW snowstorms in November in the last 100 years) 2019 322 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 2019 323 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 2019 324 1008.52 1008.75 -19.79 2019 325 1010.15 1009.10 -11.65 2019 326 1012.20 1009.70 -2.42 2019 327 1012.34 1010.10 -4.08 (this down then up then down period preceded the New England snows early December). 2019 328 1010.52 1009.35 -10.88 2019 329 1009.94 1009.20 -13.62 2019 330 1010.12 1008.55 -8.34 2019 331 1010.39 1008.65 -7.26 2019 332 1010.38 1008.95 -9.23 2019 333 1010.55 1008.20 -3.38 2019 334 1011.34 1008.40 0.38 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

Big crash verified for 2/27-2/28. +16 to +2 in one day. Usually means a big storm in the SW after a drop that size. GFS already hinting at it yesterday -

CFS has a nice warm March for New England. This pattern is actually pretty close to what I expected for April - it's a northward version of the mid-Dec to mid-Jan pattern. I had an area of +5 for the NE/MW. We'll see what happens. New Mexico hasn't had a cold March since 2010, so I'm skeptical this is the correct look for March. Half of our warming in the last 100 years is in March (as opposed to the 1/12th you'd expect).

The CFS is actually going to my idea for April (I had an area of +5 or warmer NE/Great Lakes)...unfortunately it shows it for March. Oh well. We'll have to see how it verifies. If you look at 12/16-1/15, it was a pattern pretty similar to what is depicted below, but the huge warm area centered further south than what the CFS has. New England & Minnesota are in the 10th shade for warmth, something like +6 to +8 (F) on the scale.

Dew points bottomed out below -10 today in Albuquerque, similar to several air masses in late October & early-mid November. Literal 48 hour transition from mid-40s dew points to mid -10s dew points.

The CFS continues to depict a wet period in week two of March for NM/AZ. The storm Saturday-Sunday, timing wise works well as the repeat of the 11/6 storm, both warm wet systems. If something big is going to come through, I think there is support for it to be around 3/7. That's the 3.5 month lag of the Nov 20th storm. It also may link up well with the collapse of the Typhoon hitting Australia this week. A big SOI crash around 2/26 or 2/27 supports something in that time frame. Typhoons are often associated with the biggest crashes of the SOI.

I'm fairly happy with my snowfall map, but I can't verify it for a while, the Plains / Rockies will keep getting snow into April or May, so it's too early. It's hard for me to imagine Philadelphia really finishing under an inch - that's real rare. So I wouldn't be shocked with some kind of correction. I think there was a fairly big April snow when I was a kid in NJ in April 2000 after a very warm winter - something like that could help. Generally, I was way too cold Midwest. I did have the South & New England warm, although +2, not +5, so too cold still. For Albuquerque and most of the Western third of the US, plus the Northern Plains, I'll probably finish within 2F of the observed high, but it's small potatoes with Chicago, St. Louis, etc, being 5-8F colder than what I had.

I just threw in some numbers for 2019-20, but you can see, after the lowest annualized solar year (monthly sunspots July-June/12), the NAO goes negative in winter, at least in recent history it has. I don't think it's a coincidence that the annualized solar cycle effects have been showing up - very wet Northern Plains / cold West, relatively uninterrupted since 2016-17, which is when we fell below the magical 55 sunspot/year threshold I use for low-solar.

We're likely warm enough in February now (27.1C or so), with enough warmth below Nino 3.4 for this event to be classified as an El Nino. CPC uses 26.58C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 Long term, the near record warmth in Nino 4 in February, and very positive AO in February are opposite signals for US temperatures in March - should be interesting to watch how that plays out. The subsurface does imply Nino 4 may cool soon, fairly rapidly, in which case the AO may take over completely.

Have to see how Spring goes. You can get a lot of rain and snow in the West through May. Western snow pack is pretty average for most areas except Oregon, California, Nevada, and Arizona. The Rio Grande should be fine, the mountains surrounding the head waters are near average, and the lakes/reservoirs are pretty full still from last year. Elephant Butte Lake which supplies a lot of stored Rio Grande water to Mexico & far West Texas is the fullest it has been in over 10 years, since July 2010. The models/CFS and my own ideas also support a pretty wet March for New Mexico & Arizona, probably southern Colorado too which would help a lot. February/March more were super warm for years here, much more average lately, which has helped. I think we hit 75 on February 10th in Albuquerque in 2017, which means even the mountain tops likely saw some snow melt. None of that bs this year, so far.

The lack of snow pack right now compared to last year implies a much warmer March. The snow-less areas of Montana in some cases will literally be 20F warmer than last year. Billings finished 22 degrees below average last February.

I think the models see very high down dew points down here and kind of go nuts with precipitation for the NM high terrain and Colorado. We had 0.19" rain, despite dew points at July levels (mid-40s). On the other hand...I forecast 1.25" for Dec-Feb for Albuquerque in my winter forecast for October, with a high of 49.7F. Albuquerque is currently at 1.17"/49.3F for 12/1-2/22. The storm did what I needed it to do. I had 7.5 inches of snow through February 28. We're at 6.5, although the distribution is pretty different. I did have a big November (we only average an inch here). This was from my October forecast. Essentially, a lot of the cold/snow I expected for Nov-Dec concentrated in November. Obviously, November came in wetter than expected, wettest since 1905 here. October was 68.2F / 0.59" / 0.0" snow. November was 55.6F / 1.99" / 4.0" snow. December was 47.8F / 0.30" / 0.4" snow. January was 48.8F / 0.30" / 0.9" snow. February isn't over yet, but should finish around 53.5F/0.57"/1.2" snow.

The repeat was inexact, with weaker colder and strong warmth, but its not surprising to me that the South had snow with this part of the pattern cycling through again, at the 3.5 month lag. Looks to me like we're about at November 6th in terms of how Fall progressed.