raindancewx

The core of the cold water anomalies right now are not in Nino 4 - so any transition to a La Nina will likely go through something like an El Nino Modoki look first (warm around 170W), colder east/west of there. The warmth east of 150W is in trouble pretty soon though.

April looks like it is going to clinch 2019-2020 as an official El Nino. But the subsurface heat is gone now. Still very warm in Nino 4 too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9

For snow, the NE was my biggest issue. But generally, the maps I use have pretty incredible snow totals for the West in the high terrain for July-June. I can't get on the site to update the running snow total % map - but it looked pretty decent to me outside the NE, west TX and CA.

The 1951-2010 average temperature in Nino 3.4 is 26.5C for Dec-Feb. A pretty healthy La Nina to me would be under 25.5C. By modern standards, with Nino 4 semi-perpetually warm, I might fudge that by 0.2C. The 2010-11 event was 1.3C below the long term average in winter (25.2C). None of the modern La Ninas since 2000 match the colder/older ones, at <25.0C for a winter, which would be -1.5C or colder long term.

Nino 4 looks like it could finish in the 29.0-29.4C range for April 2020. Not exactly a lot a strong cold or La Nina signal historically. In fact it seems almost impossible to get a strong or long-lasting La Nina with Nino 4 that warm going by the historical record. This is the composite of winters after 29.0-29.4C Nino 4 in April. Really only 1995-96, 2005-06, 2010-11 as La Ninas. Only 2010-11 is strong.

I'll be very curious to see the final snow totals for the West in May, but I was pretty optimistic for the high areas for snow for Oct-May last Fall- that looks pretty good overall. The models / SOI are already hinting at some kind of big system at the end of the month with a lot more snow and severe weather too.

The AMO (+0.363) for March, and PDO for March (-0.82) combination is the worst possible outcome for the Southwest to get a lot of precipitation long-term, especially if a La Nina does develop. The ideal is a -AMO, with a positive PDO. We're opposite that now. I'm still pretty skeptical of a La Nina. Nino 4 is real warm for a La Nina to develop. I think it needs until June to fall to average warmth, even with rapid cooling.

Rain yesterday into the early morning today went over to snow. Briefly accumulated about half an inch in the city, after weeks in the 60s/70s. Will be interesting to see what the official snow measurement is - they recorded 0.10" as snow, but all above freezing. Probably only 0.2" or something.

Happy mid-April from New Mexico. Snow accumulating in Albuquerque. This is East of town

Snowing here. Never good for the Plains for tornado activity if it snows in Albuquerque in Spring.

Still El Nino. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0

Also, the European has Nino 3 warming quite a bit the next few months, with Nino 3.4 in El Nino conditions in April. The decay of warmth is forecast to be roughly west to east, with 4 dropping fastest, then 3.4, then 3.

Euro has been showing a pretty good snow storm for New Mexico on its last few runs. The timing is pretty consistent with the huge SOI crash early month, and also the 3.5 month lag to the late December system. Still amazes me that since I've lived in Albuquerque we've had more snow in the city in April than in March, but, it looks like 1-3" is possible here if temps are cold enough and the wind cooperates. Haven't looked in detail yet though, since location for the precip shield will continue to change.

The JISAO PDO value is in for March 2020 - Nate Mantua sent it out today. -0.82 is lowest in a very long time - since October 2013 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

The European has been showing a pretty big snow storm for mid-April for New Mexico. It does coincide pretty well with the huge SOI crash 4/1 to 4/3 - big storms over the SW tend to follow big crashes. The crash was +5 to -16 in two days.

Actually think May will be pretty active, even for the time of year.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 Still El Nino warmth. Cold is really deepening below though.

Been impressively cold in Montana so far. Sometimes Apr-May is a good hint for the Fall - will have to keep watching how the month unfolds.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.5 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2019 10 27.20 26.75 0.45 2019 11 27.23 26.75 0.48 2019 12 27.12 26.65 0.47 2020 1 27.15 26.45 0.70 2020 2 27.12 26.66 0.45 2020 3 27.69 27.21 0.48 CPC has this a +0.54C El Nino for JFM. Its pretty likely FMA will be warm enough to make this an El Nino, as Nino 3.4 is still pretty warm. It's still six weeks early for this to be final for the West, but here is an early look at how well my snowfall map did - big bust for the big cities in the NE, but even there I had New England near average. Pretty happy with it overall, for something issued in early October. High mountains in the Rockies, NW were snowy, TX/mid-south generally below average, save West Texas. California was snowier than expected. Midwest was generally snowy where I had it - Dakotas, Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois, etc. Been pretty happy with my Spring Outlook so far too.

Euro initialization update shows Nino 3.4/3 warmed in March from February, relative to the baseline of those months.

Canadian has given up on a La Nina for 2020-21. New run is on the left. Would probably be a -0.3C winter given what it shows. Previously it had a La Nina developing June-July, now it kind of has it developing in August and ending pretty fast.

New Canadian should be out later - for now CPC is copying the CFS forecast.

The Canadian actually had a very good forecast for March on Feb 29th - new outlook from them should be out tomorrow. Definitely beat the CFS - The forecast big -NAO is actually pretty consistent with the cold West the CFS has for April. The wet signal for the CO/WY border is there too. The CFS map is actually pretty close to what I forecast in my Spring Outlook from February, just a bit colder everywhere.

Despite CPC kicking and screaming about calling this an El Nino, JFM will once again be at least +0.5C in an ONI sense, for the fourth trimester. If April doesn't fall below +0.5, it becomes an El Nino officially. CPC uses 27.2C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average in March. March should be around 27.8C. Since the numbers are rounded, April probably only needs to hit +0.35C for this to be considered an El Nino event, as that would be enough for +0.5C in FMA. Subsurface heat content for 100-180W is still around +0.5 in March too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6

April looks like a much more interesting than March, I think we all got a bit spoiled last month. There was a sh-t load of moisture in the Southwest this month, it just missed south of me, unlike in late November. The CFS has trended very cold for April in the West, except for where I am. We'll see where it ends up - it usually has some skill for the next month this close to it.