raindancewx

The Canadian has a pretty healthy La Nina in the monthly update. New forecast is on the left. Will be interesting to see what happens. I think this is too cold in Nino 4 at least.

Mid-80s today in late afternoon in late June in Albuquerque. I'll take it! CFS continues to insist on a broadly cold West / hot East pattern for July.

Nino 3.4 warmed up a lot this week. No La Nina yet. Nino 4 is of course invincible. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 24JUN2020 21.6-0.8 25.8-0.4 27.6 0.1 29.3 0.5

No 100 degree heat yet. We have had our three 95 or hotter days already though, as I mentioned here. It is kind of crazy how it works here, something like 64 days will be 90 or hotter in an average year, but only 21 will be 95 or hotter, and only 2.5 will be 100 or hotter. It just rapidly decays with each degree.

Doesn't look like June 2020 is going to hit 100 degrees in Albuquerque. Always good to see.

I'm expecting a weak La Nina for winter, but only because it seems difficult to get Nino 4 to be cold for a sustained period. If it ends up at 29.3C again the Fall/Winter, you can pretty much write off winter in the NE, as December will be warm, and then Feb is favored warm for a La Nina, unless the hurricane season goes ballistic. The warmth from the West if anything seems to be rebuilding. The initial wave of cold will get reinforced to the east for a bit, and then probably mix out a bit. Will need another wave of cold for a La Nina to sustain from Fall on. Nino 3 does look really cold for at least a little while though, maybe -1.0C or colder. Spatially, there just enough that much cold on the subsurface maps, even though it is intensely cold. The little patches of +0.5 to +1.0 are starting to get near the western part of Nino 3.4 again though.

Haven't looked in a few days, but it actually looked like June 2020 would see a lot more solar activity than last June. So the absolute floor of the solar cycle 12-month min will likely be the 12 months ending May 2020 - but we'll have to see. There are certain things that just don't seem to happen or happen more frequently at the minimum in a statistical sense. It has been snowing a lot in April here, but not in March in Albuquerque - late last snowfalls with little to snow in March are both effects that have unusual concentrations by portion of the solar cycle, with the p-values in a difference of proportion test at like 0.001, i.e. well under a 1% chance of being a fluke in the data v. a real effect.

The June pattern nationally is pretty dry. Even in NM, it is really just small areas of the Rio Grande Valley that have been wet this month. The CFS has been trending much colder in July for the West though. My outlook for June had the SE/NW cold, with the NE/MW warm, other areas near average. That'll be too cold for the Plains, but decent to good elsewhere. I think I had the June high for Albuquerque at 89.4F from the pure analogs, and through yesterday it was 90.8F. So I'll be a bit too cold, but not much. Sometimes I adjust the analogs warmer for the Earth warming, but whenever I try it here, it ends up being colder. June highs are warming ~3.5F/century here, so I would have added 1.4F based on the analog years I used for 90.8F if I had done it - but even that will likely be a bit too cold.

Rained today in Albuquerque. Now up to 1.07" for the month. One of the wettest June in the last 30 years, fourth I think - with a week to go yet. For the past 90 years, the wettest Junes are all 1.40" and higher. Will be interesting to see if we can get there. Chance of rain again tomorrow. My analogs had 1.30" or so for June, so pretty good really, although most was in early June, and I thought it would arrive in late June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 17JUN2020 22.2-0.5 25.7-0.7 27.2-0.4 29.1 0.2 Some warmth returning to Nino 4 is consistent with the subsurface recently. We're sort of in a 100-150W La Nina instead of a 120-170W (Nino 3.4) La Nina.

The period June 22-June 28 is often stupid hot. If we're going to hit 100 this year, it is likely in that period where I am. I am little skeptical that we will get there. A lot of little dry lines, cold fronts, and thunder storms this June have made it hard for the super hot days to come about with regularity. We'll see how it goes - I'm sure we have at least three more days above 95 by the end of the month at a minimum.

For those of you in the NE, I've been playing around with this in La Nina. In High ACE Atlantic years, the NE tends to see vastly more snow. In Low ACE Atlantic years, the SW tends to do better for snow, while the NE does worse. 1933, 1995, 2005, 2017 are the worst winters in the SW period (hot, dry) in the past 100 years - all low solar, super high ACE, La Nina. If you had to draw a canonical La Nina snow map, I think it varies like this (La Ninas average 130 ACE). It seems to me that the storms curve up the coast inland in good years for the SW, the Low ACE years with the high more over the SE US forcing that. Opposite in High ACE years - nothing to force the storms to over the SW at all - the storms miss north or south typically (remember all the snow in Monterrey and Houston, etc in 2017-18?).

This has been a bit of a weird June so far for precipitation patterns nationally. New Mexico has been in its own little precipitation island. Sort of pseudo monsoon-ish feel - excessive dryness in TX usually means a high there, which is good for NM. June is running around triple average precipitation for the narrow wet area on the map below.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 10JUN2020 22.2-0.8 25.7-0.9 27.1-0.6 28.8 0.0 Lots of cooling this week. June may end up being the start of La Nina conditions officially - we'll see.

In a lot of ways, the past few months have resembled 1966 - will be interesting to see if that continues going forward.

The snows in Wyoming were pretty neat to see. Some spots latest big event since 1974. Locally, the low of 48 today was the coldest it has been in June on any day since 2008. The coldest the city has been in June since 1931 is 40 - so fairly impressive cold front. Long-term, a year when June falls below 50F in Albuquerque favors strong cold shots in the West in Nov-Feb. This indicator is one I've known about for a while, it is the only one even close to statistical significance for predicting lows below 0 in Nov-Feb.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1 03JUN2020 23.1-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.3-0.4 29.0 0.2 Good old Nino 4 is still stubbornly warm. But Nino 3 is essentially in La Nina conditions.

Subsurface waters in May for 100-180W down to 300m were the coldest they've been (relatively) since October 2017. Huge flip from March to May. Keep your eyes on the hurricane season - in La Nina years, the ACE Index for the Atlantic is a good leading indicator for whether the West will be cold or not in the winter. Years with low ACE Index values in La Ninas (2007) tend to be cooler than years with very high ACE index values (2017).

Nino 4 is stubborn, but even the warmth there has been getting its ass kicked a bit. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1 27MAY2020 23.3-0.4 26.3-0.5 27.3-0.5 28.7-0.1

Looks to me like the observations are broken or down now - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 ******** ******** ******** ******** Nevermind - they fixed it 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 20MAY2020 23.9-0.1 26.4-0.6 27.4-0.4 28.9 0.1

We've really cooled off a lot here since the late April - early May heat wave. After lows near 60 and highs near 90 we've dropped back to highs near 80 and lows near 50 - which is actually a bit cool for late May. We dropped into the 40s the other day with dew points in the negative single digits. We had a lot of days in Summer 2016 with dew points around 10 and highs around 100 in late June and July. The dew point depressions were almost painful but you had populated areas dropping into the 40s from the mid-high 90s - very impressive. I think we had a day where we went from 100 to 58 in Albuquerque, when something like 100 to 69 would be more typical. There are some indications of a wetter monsoon than last year. It does seem to happen more frequently with lower snow pack totals heading into Spring. I use Taos Powderhorn as an approximation - still snow covered into late June last year. Not gonna happen this year. It seems like the monsoon really kicks off 2-3 weeks after the mountains above 10,000 feet can absorb the full heat of the sun without snow-pack interfering. Also hoping for a big August for rainfall, it has been ages since the city has had a real wet August.

https://www.scribd.com/document/462193709/Summer-2020-Final-Outlook The analogs I used for Summer 2020 imply a 25.75C La Nina in winter as a composite - will be interesting how that changes from now through the Fall when I do my winter outlook. For whatever reason, 2005, 2010, 2016 have not been good matches to US weather yet despite similar SSTs, in low-solar, warm AMO, El Nino to La Nina transitions.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 08APR2020 26.5 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.2 0.6 29.4 1.0 15APR2020 25.6 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.5 0.7 29.4 0.9 22APR2020 25.4 0.2 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 29APR2020 25.1 0.1 27.7 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.0 0.4 06MAY2020 24.8 0.2 27.4 0.2 28.0 0.2 29.0 0.3 13MAY2020 24.5 0.2 27.0-0.1 27.6-0.3 29.0 0.3 Nino 4 remains the big hindrance to a La Nina - but the middle zones are probably going to be colder than average in June. Early May was still warm, so definitely no La Nina this month.

I'm increasingly looking at the coming Summer/Fall/Winter behaving differently than a lot of the recent winters. If you look at the monthly NAO data, April 2020 was the first -NAO month since April 2010. The difference between May minus April and September minus March as a blend is pretty indicative for the upcoming NAO pattern - so a rise from April to May (even if May is only slightly negative) is pretty different from recent years. The coming winter should be easier to forecast than last winter - the final data for last winter included a very warm Nov-Apr AMO, a slightly negative Nov-Apr PDO, a high Dec-Feb Modoki value, low annualized solar, a weak El Nino following a weak El Nino, in a year after a weak Southwest Monsoon - all that stuff is in contradiction or unprecedented to some extent with the historical El Ninos in the past 100 years. A low solar La Nina after a weak El Nino, with a -PDO/+AMO, should it develop has plenty of precedent. Years would include 1942, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2016. The national pattern for Spring has a fairly strong resemblance to a blend of a couple of those years. I'll detail that when I do my Summer Outlook. Generally speaking, the -NAO in April is cold signal for the SW in June but warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the SE in July, cold for the NW in September. The big +AO in March is a cold signal nationally for the US in August. Low solar warm for the NE/MW in June, cold for the north-central US in August. The AMO/warm Nino 3.4 Spring are favorable for warmth in the East July-Sept, and nationally in Aug-Sept. It looks like a hot Summer to me, outside maybe TX and the NW.

I said I would do this at the end of the season - so here is my analog blend using sampled cities across the US. I was way too snowy in the NE. Otherwise, results weren't amazing, but I wouldn't call them awful either. Most sites had at least one analog that was pretty close to the final snow total, and the weighted analog blend got quite a few cities within six inches (marked in pink). Some are obviously in the South, but fair number in the West/Midwest too where they actually got substantial snow. The forecast and % averages were my forecast compared to 60-year snow averages. The 2019 in red is total snow July-mid-May. If you look at the light purple (either closest analog or within an inch of the total) you find that 2018-19 and 1953-54 were closest to 2019-20 most frequently. Locally, the blend had 9.0" for Albuquerque at the airport - they got 6.6". I had 10.5" at my place. The weighting below was 1953-54 (x2), 1983-84 (x2), 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-10 (x3), 2018-19. I'm generally happy with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2018-19 as analogs for the winter, they more or less worked in Fall, Winter and Spring with the right weights - but the others screwed it all up.