raindancewx

Canadian is hinting at a wet March for NM - lots of 'wetter than normal' right near the border of NM/TX/MX. That's usually a wet pattern near the boundaries of the cold/warm zones. Huge SOI drops recently support activity around 3/9-3/10, which is the 3.5 month lag for the late November storminess in the SW. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 29 Feb 2020 1007.73 1006.35 -16.14 -2.61 -2.97 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

This winter has been remarkably average for Albuquerque - near average precipitation, near average snow, near average winter high, even the number of cold mornings is near average. 6.5" / 1.17" / 49.7F / 94-95 (pending 2/29) those are total snow Oct-Feb, DJF precipitation, Oct-Feb lows <=32F. Here are the 1931-32 to 2018-19 year averages for the same period: 7.5" / 1.30" / 49.5F/ 92 (arguably 93 in a leap year) For the past 30-years, the number of freezing lows is pretty high (83 is average for Oct-Feb), and the snow is closer to average (6.9"). Average high for the 30-years ending 2018-19 is 50.3F, so a bit cold in the context of recent winters, but also a bit dry (1.33"). The SOI did see a massive one-day crash yesterday as a Typhoon/tropical storm moved away from Darwin, Australia. Will be interesting to see if there is a big storm around March 9th in the SW. Typically, after a 10 point or higher SOI crash in one-two days, the zone between LA & Amarillo, from 30-37N will see a big storm in 10 days. Several of the SOI crashes preceded huge storms in the SW US and Mexico last November, and that was the start of the transition to the (brief) snowier New England pattern. I think there needs to be a period of enhancement of the subtropical jet, and then if there is a big SOI spike when it is enhanced, there should be a big Nor'easter or two, probably mid month. This is last November. The heavy Lake Effect snow is somewhat similar to the Nov 12 event 2019 305 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 2019 306 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 2019 307 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 (crash 307-308 before the great mid-month Blue Norther) https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2019-11-08-arctic-cold-outbreak-mid-november-record-midwest-south-east 2019 308 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 2019 309 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 2019 310 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 2019 311 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 2019 312 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 2019 313 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 2019 314 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 (similar to 2/27-2/28 SOI crash of ~14 in one day. 10-days ahead of a huge wet Nov storm in the SW) 2019 315 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 2019 316 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 2019 317 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 2019 318 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 2019 319 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 2019 320 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 2019 321 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 (this three day period preceded one of the biggest SW snowstorms in November in the last 100 years) 2019 322 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 2019 323 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 2019 324 1008.52 1008.75 -19.79 2019 325 1010.15 1009.10 -11.65 2019 326 1012.20 1009.70 -2.42 2019 327 1012.34 1010.10 -4.08 (this down then up then down period preceded the New England snows early December). 2019 328 1010.52 1009.35 -10.88 2019 329 1009.94 1009.20 -13.62 2019 330 1010.12 1008.55 -8.34 2019 331 1010.39 1008.65 -7.26 2019 332 1010.38 1008.95 -9.23 2019 333 1010.55 1008.20 -3.38 2019 334 1011.34 1008.40 0.38 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 28 Feb 2020 1009.06 1003.90 2.02 -1.81 -2.75 27 Feb 2020 1011.55 1003.50 15.90 -1.48 -2.76

Big crash verified for 2/27-2/28. +16 to +2 in one day. Usually means a big storm in the SW after a drop that size. GFS already hinting at it yesterday -

CFS has a nice warm March for New England. This pattern is actually pretty close to what I expected for April - it's a northward version of the mid-Dec to mid-Jan pattern. I had an area of +5 for the NE/MW. We'll see what happens. New Mexico hasn't had a cold March since 2010, so I'm skeptical this is the correct look for March. Half of our warming in the last 100 years is in March (as opposed to the 1/12th you'd expect).

The CFS is actually going to my idea for April (I had an area of +5 or warmer NE/Great Lakes)...unfortunately it shows it for March. Oh well. We'll have to see how it verifies. If you look at 12/16-1/15, it was a pattern pretty similar to what is depicted below, but the huge warm area centered further south than what the CFS has. New England & Minnesota are in the 10th shade for warmth, something like +6 to +8 (F) on the scale.

Dew points bottomed out below -10 today in Albuquerque, similar to several air masses in late October & early-mid November. Literal 48 hour transition from mid-40s dew points to mid -10s dew points.

The CFS continues to depict a wet period in week two of March for NM/AZ. The storm Saturday-Sunday, timing wise works well as the repeat of the 11/6 storm, both warm wet systems. If something big is going to come through, I think there is support for it to be around 3/7. That's the 3.5 month lag of the Nov 20th storm. It also may link up well with the collapse of the Typhoon hitting Australia this week. A big SOI crash around 2/26 or 2/27 supports something in that time frame. Typhoons are often associated with the biggest crashes of the SOI.

I'm fairly happy with my snowfall map, but I can't verify it for a while, the Plains / Rockies will keep getting snow into April or May, so it's too early. It's hard for me to imagine Philadelphia really finishing under an inch - that's real rare. So I wouldn't be shocked with some kind of correction. I think there was a fairly big April snow when I was a kid in NJ in April 2000 after a very warm winter - something like that could help. Generally, I was way too cold Midwest. I did have the South & New England warm, although +2, not +5, so too cold still. For Albuquerque and most of the Western third of the US, plus the Northern Plains, I'll probably finish within 2F of the observed high, but it's small potatoes with Chicago, St. Louis, etc, being 5-8F colder than what I had.

I just threw in some numbers for 2019-20, but you can see, after the lowest annualized solar year (monthly sunspots July-June/12), the NAO goes negative in winter, at least in recent history it has. I don't think it's a coincidence that the annualized solar cycle effects have been showing up - very wet Northern Plains / cold West, relatively uninterrupted since 2016-17, which is when we fell below the magical 55 sunspot/year threshold I use for low-solar.

We're likely warm enough in February now (27.1C or so), with enough warmth below Nino 3.4 for this event to be classified as an El Nino. CPC uses 26.58C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 Long term, the near record warmth in Nino 4 in February, and very positive AO in February are opposite signals for US temperatures in March - should be interesting to watch how that plays out. The subsurface does imply Nino 4 may cool soon, fairly rapidly, in which case the AO may take over completely.

Have to see how Spring goes. You can get a lot of rain and snow in the West through May. Western snow pack is pretty average for most areas except Oregon, California, Nevada, and Arizona. The Rio Grande should be fine, the mountains surrounding the head waters are near average, and the lakes/reservoirs are pretty full still from last year. Elephant Butte Lake which supplies a lot of stored Rio Grande water to Mexico & far West Texas is the fullest it has been in over 10 years, since July 2010. The models/CFS and my own ideas also support a pretty wet March for New Mexico & Arizona, probably southern Colorado too which would help a lot. February/March more were super warm for years here, much more average lately, which has helped. I think we hit 75 on February 10th in Albuquerque in 2017, which means even the mountain tops likely saw some snow melt. None of that bs this year, so far.

The lack of snow pack right now compared to last year implies a much warmer March. The snow-less areas of Montana in some cases will literally be 20F warmer than last year. Billings finished 22 degrees below average last February.

I think the models see very high down dew points down here and kind of go nuts with precipitation for the NM high terrain and Colorado. We had 0.19" rain, despite dew points at July levels (mid-40s). On the other hand...I forecast 1.25" for Dec-Feb for Albuquerque in my winter forecast for October, with a high of 49.7F. Albuquerque is currently at 1.17"/49.3F for 12/1-2/22. The storm did what I needed it to do. I had 7.5 inches of snow through February 28. We're at 6.5, although the distribution is pretty different. I did have a big November (we only average an inch here). This was from my October forecast. Essentially, a lot of the cold/snow I expected for Nov-Dec concentrated in November. Obviously, November came in wetter than expected, wettest since 1905 here. October was 68.2F / 0.59" / 0.0" snow. November was 55.6F / 1.99" / 4.0" snow. December was 47.8F / 0.30" / 0.4" snow. January was 48.8F / 0.30" / 0.9" snow. February isn't over yet, but should finish around 53.5F/0.57"/1.2" snow.

The repeat was inexact, with weaker colder and strong warmth, but its not surprising to me that the South had snow with this part of the pattern cycling through again, at the 3.5 month lag. Looks to me like we're about at November 6th in terms of how Fall progressed.

Waters below Nino 3.4 aren't as warm as last year, but I can't really see a rapid collapse in Nino 3.4 temperatures either, at least until April. Warmth in Nino 3.4 in March is a strong warm signal for the US later in Summer, especially August-September. Probably not as warm as last Summer though, which followed one of the warmest Nino 3.4 Springs on record, I think it was 7th since 1950 for warmth.

Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter.

The local weather service is talking about record precipitable water for Saturday for the date for New Mexico. My winter outlook had 1.25" precipitation for Albuquerque for Dec-Feb. I have an experimental winter regression for El Ninos that said 2.10", +/-0.8" at 95% certainty for the winter. Currently 0.98", with 0.1-0.5" possible for the storm Saturday. Different formula had 0.47", +/-0.43" at 95% certainty for February - currently 0.38". Very curious to see how it all shakes out. Takes forever to test these seasonal regressions. Winter high is currently 49.4F here. Up to 89 lows <=32F for 10/1-2/21.

It's not really a traditional analog setup - the blends for the NAO/PDO/AMO I use are regression based from initial conditions, and I try to find years that match the output of the regression. As a blend, a polynomial regression of the NAO for May minus April and September minus March accounts for about 50% of the variability in the NAO winter average for the past 30 years. It worked last year too - 1975 was similar to 2018 for May-Apr and Sept-Mar and produced good results for the NAO in winter. When I do a seasonal outlook, I'm essentially using formulas to predict the key variables...and then finding years that match (as a blend) on all of them. For this past winter the process selected three good analogs, 1992-93, 1953-54, 2018-19, but I weighted them too little in conjunction with the bad analogs. Those three should have been about 90% of the analog weighting, instead of the 50% I gave them.

The Euro has a 985 mb Typhoon hitting east of Darwin, Australia in a few days. Once it weakens, there should be a pretty massive crash in the SOI, shortly before March, probably around 2/26. That would set up the 3/7-3/14 window I've been targeting for major SW precipitation for months pretty well if it happens, as you tend to get major precipitation events in the SW 10 days after a major SOI crash.

In general, this winter has produced similar results to last year. The main difference is the complete lack of severe cold shots destroying huge amounts of warm anomalies in very short periods, like late January for the Midwest, or February in the Plains. I'm the magical white spot in New Mexico. The map is about right - roughly ~ +1.0F for my winter to date, and we're on pace for 100+ lows <=32F for Oct-May. The Northern Plains/Montana have never had four severe cold winters in a row back to the 1890s if you look in the records - that looks like it will hold this year. Billings & Bismarck are both about +3F, 82 days into winter. It would take a week of -30 departures by 2/29 to wipe that out. I had three very strong analogs for winter out of the six I selected in October - should have weighted them more heavily - 1953-54 (x3), 1992-93, 2018-19 (x2) as a blend is damn close to the look for the winter highs so far. The warm to cold nature (relatively, look at the last week v. Feb 1-20) for the East this February is consistent with how the SOI behaved in December. Strongly positive initially (like Dec 2018) and then much more negative late. The European has a hurricane/typhoon near Darwin, so the SOI is going to pop for a little while more. Big crash a few days before March should set up some semblance of the repeat of late November, which had record SW precip as the MJO died, and then eventually some powerful storms for the NE.

In an SOI sense, a big -SOI in Dec, near 0 SOI in Jan, and then a big -SOI in Feb is fairly unusual. This blend is broadly consistent with my analogs - with a warm West for March. 2012-13 is objectively the closest match in the past 100 years, but I prefer this blend. Year Dec Jan Feb 2019 -6.7 0.7 -7.3 1953 -5.8 5.0 -5.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1980 -2.2 2.1 -4.2 1987 -5.8 -1.5 -6.2 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 2002 -13.4 -2.0 -9.3 Blend -7.1 0.6 -6.4 For the subsurface, 100-180W, 0-300m down, these are likely top matches for Dec-Feb: 100-180W Dec Jan Feb 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 2001 0.17 0.95 0.78 1992 0.19 0.27 0.28 Mean 0.34 0.50 0.48 2019 0.34 0.51 0.50 Take your pick for March - the second blend is much closer to the analogs I used for Spring (1954, 1993, 2005, 2019 for MAM), and March 2020 (1954, 2004, 2005). 1981 is actually a decent match for the subsurface too. March 2013 also looks fairly close to the left map, and it is the top SOI blend.

The CFS has a huge wet signal for 3/4 to 3/11 on its weekly run for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. That's roughly the time-frame I've been expecting the Nov 20-29 part of the pattern to repeat. We'll see.

Don't forget...the low solar + El Nino thing held last year too. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8 2019 3 Roughly a 90% chance of 16-48" for the season going by 2/19-5/31 records since the 1890s for Boston. So...33.8 is probably as decent a guess as any?

Hooray for math. As I've said...blending years with similar conditions for Sep minus Mar and May minus Apr produces good NAO predictions for winter.

GFS/Euro are showing a warm/wet storm around Friday/Saturday - this would be the early November (11/6) storm using the 3.5 month lag if it verifies. Would verify the precipitation portion of my winter forecast for Albuquerque if it happens as shown.