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SOI has popped positive... Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 2 Dec 2019 1012.38 1007.35 6.80 -9.07 -8.48 1 Dec 2019 1012.31 1007.80 4.10 -9.40 -8.74 QBO is still positive. Looks like 2002 more than 1995 now. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 -999.00 Solar activity for the six months to Nov 2019, was the lowest six month average (0.8/month) in any six-month period since Jun-Nov 1823 according to the SILSO data. The 12-month average to November 2019 was down to 3.8, lower than the 5.5 in the period ending November 2008. PDO still looks slightly negative in November. Warmth east of Japan shouldn't be there in a warm PDO, and the ring of warmth right along the Western North American coast isn't there, the warmth is in the 'east of Japan' area and it fades toward Alaska & Canada. Compared to last November, I'd say the PDO is more negative this year, and it was -0.05 in Nov 2018. Nino 1.2 has popped positive, right in time for Christmas, as our Peruvian friends have been observing for hundreds of years. The reading for Nino 3.4 is probably going to be about 27.25C on the monthly data, which I would consider an El Nino reading, given the 1951-2010 November average SST in Nino 3.4 is 26.5C. CPC uses 26.75C as their baseline (it is the 1986-2015 average) in November. So it's real close either way. The little cold pocket of water that has been showing up below Nino 3.4 does seem to be surfacing as the warmth to the east surfaces, so this is becoming less of a Modoki El Nino by the day at this point for now. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8

Nov 1991: 1.93" precip in Albuquerque. Nov 2019: 1.99" precip in Albuquerque. (1991 was the record for Nov here for the past 100 years). I think because the IOD is enhancing the response you'd get from the subtropical jet-stream for an El Nino this weak, 1991 is probably a good precipitation analog nationally. Not really convinced for temperatures. The models depicting a positive SOI for December may not be too wrong - it looks neutral to positive for most of the next ten days on the European, although their might be one big drop in a a couple days which would support a big storm in the SW mid-month, and then maybe a pattern change nationally. The Canadian may actually be trying to do 1965, 2018 for its forecasts because of the SOI pattern. SOI Sept Oct Nov 1965 -13.5 -11.0 -16.7 2018 -8.5 +2.6 +0.6 Blend -11.0 -4.2 -8.1 2019 -12.7 -5.2 -9.5

My basic idea for December for New Mexico & Colorado & West Texas is that the storminess of November dies off somewhat, but we still finish wetter than average, with temperatures probably not that far from average either way, despite impressive cold at times later in the month. In recent El Ninos, the US temperature pattern for Oct 16-Oct 31 has tended to become the December temperature pattern nationally, but shifted somewhat East. We had near to record cold in that period this year. My objective high temperature & precipitation matches for the July-November period include six very cold Decembers locally, including the record and near record cold of 1943, 1952, 1953, 1992. Only 1939 was warmer than normal, and that was the weakest of the ten objective matches. Objective matches for the subsurface in the Tropical Pacific, years with a big warm up Sept to Oct, and then a cool off in Oct to Nov also support somewhat cold temps in the SW. Additionally, if you blend all years when Nino 4 is above 29.3C (there aren't too many of them) in Fall/Dec, the composite looks a lot like the map below. The top SOI matches for Sept-Nov also look like the map below. Years with positive NAO readings in December. I do expect the pattern in early November to repeat at some point later in the winter - probably January, but its worth remembering most of the severe cold was destroyed pretty quickly. It's obviously amplified, but the very warm coast/colder middle thing repeated last Nov 1-15 in January. It's just it came in much more severely, even though it was similar spatially.

The 10/31 forecast from the Canadian for November, as well as the 11/30 forecast for December both look like a blend of 1965 & 2018 on that model. The Canadian forecast from 11.30.18 for December 2018 was actually pretty bad, unlike the winter forecast. The subsurface data for November came in for 100-180W, top 300m. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Best blend I could find was this - 100-180W Sept Oct Nov 1986 0.65 0.95 0.52 1986 0.65 0.95 0.52 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1991 0.60 1.41 1.22 1998 -2.15 -2.35 -2.33 2005 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 2005 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 Blend 0.10 0.55 0.27 2019 0.00 0.70 0.26 Crazily enough...it looks identical to last year? So I am skeptical. I tried to respect the subsurface features though - big warm up in October and then the big cool down in November.

The Canadian Model has the El Nino for winter now. I don't think this is right, but it has the "Nino 4 warm" pattern, with the US roasting in December, except the SW. Interestingly, it has the NE somewhat cooler. I think there will be more cold in the middle of the US than shown, a lot of snow pack is coming to the middle of the US and western Canada from what I can see. 11.30 run for Dec 10.31 run for Dec The winter look is a drier 2004. Last year, the November idea for Dec-Feb wasn't completely wrong, for what its worth.

For the 2010s (2010-11 to 2019-20), snow frequency has really improved quite a bit over the 2000s decade. We're pretty likely to get several more snowy months by May so this graphic will have to updated when the eight month cold season is over, instead of just 1/4 over. If we finish the season above 13.5" snow - a coin-flip at this point - that 6.9" for the decade would match or exceed the 7.34" for the 2000s but without the heavy concentration of snow this decade in December 2006. We're already at four Oct-May periods with over 7 inches of snow in the 2010s (2011-12, 2014-15, 2015-16 2018-19), the 2000s had two (2000-01, 2006-07). We'll likely have a fifth in 2019-20 too. Statistically, the seasons with at least two inches of snow in Albuquerque are far more likely to be snowy or even very snowy. None of the years with over two inches of snow in November have had under 5.5" for Oct-May. Years with at least two inches of snow in Albuquerque average 10.6 days with accumulating snow - all others are only 8.1. So we likely still have around 8-9 snowy days left here. We're about due for a season in the high-teens for snow here and it's ~4x more likely than usual now, although still less likely to happen than to happen.

The CFS is still showing a +SOI look for December. Part of me thinks some kind of reigning in of the subtropical jet stream is due. November 2019 has just topped 1991 to become the wettest November in over 100 years in Albuquerque - and it happened in essentially two weeks.

I had 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard with the Nov 27-28 storm. The airport had 3.9". The general totals city wide seem to have been 4-8 inches. Mountain snow pack is in excellent shape as of this morning.

SOI is -9.8 for the past 30-days, -9.3 for the past 90 days, and -10 for November to date. I've got 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard, with near record precipitation for November (1.65") through 11 am 11/28. A lot of that near record precipitation is snow...which is certainly more of an El Nino thing than a Neutral thing here - PDO still looks somewhat negative to me for November - you can have warm waters on the NW North America coast if they are relatively cold compared to waters off to their West and have a -PDO month. It's a relational calculation, not absolute like ENSO, where warm is El Nino, cold is La Nina. Subsurface still looks warm to me. The little cold pocket is going to get its ass kicked in the coming weeks. The warm waters continue to surface by Peru as we transition out of the Modoki El Nino to a basin wide event.

I had 3.5" with the New Mexico storm by 10:50 pm on 11/27 in my backyard, about 10-miles due north of the airport site, at the same elevation. As of 1:30 am on 11/28, I'm up to 5.0". Airport in Albuquerque has had 0.19" fall as snow with temperatures between 28-32F the entire time. I think they're probably around 2.3" so far. The cold dry air has really held it's own so far. We went from 37F / 14F dew point to 32F / 25F dew point in an hour flat from 6 pm to 7 pm.

Definitely a real snow storm here - this is I-25 and Paseo Random Twitter pics -

Albuquerque went from around 40F with a 12F dew point at 2 pm, to about 31F with a 25F dew point at 7:30, thanks to the magic of evaporative cooling. Some accumulating snow already where I am, with the airport already seeing some too officially.

I went with 0-3" <5200 feet, 2-5" 5200-5600 feet, and 3-7" 5600-6100 feet in Albuquerque. It's a wet bulb storm for us in the city, we'll begin the day with temps in the low 20s or high teens (thanks for the cold dry air), before warming to the high 30s or low 40s, then the rain starts, but the sunsets, the dew point rises, but it cools the air as the moisture evaporates. Window for Albuquerque is likely 8 pm to 4 am for accumulating snow if you buy the 3-km NAM. Higher areas will start out earlier and last longer. But it's a 16 hour precip event before the next storm, and something lie 8-12 hours of it should be snow for the city. But, it is complicated here. I generally like this setup though, we had very low dew points in Feb 2015 at the surface, and then subtropical moisture moved on top of it. The subtropical warmth won, eventually, but first we had 6-12 in the city, 2/26-2/28. It's not super different from this setup.

My concern for later periods is the the Indian Ocean Dipole. Can't hang on as strong as it is for much longer. Near impossible to get sustained low pressure by Australia with it in place, and so the SOI keeps going bonkers, more than you'd expect from an El Nino this weak. Speaking of the SOI...another big 10 point drop. You know the drill. Watch for a big storm in the SW in ten days...and actually the GFS already has something in the vein of the current pattern: tropical input from the subtropical jet, coming in roughly the same time as a big low from the northern branch entering California. I'd have to look at the maps of 1992-93, but if this continues for any length of time in winter here, we've got a shot at record or near-precip this winter. These storms coming in have 0.50-1.00" precip each - huge for the interior SW.

For anyone curious, here is a list of the major Indian Ocean Dipole events in Sept-Nov for 1880-2004. This is built into my analog system when I look at the Pacific to some extent, although I don't give it much weight in winter, except as a tie-breaker. It's more important in Fall. Part of how I had 1994 last year. https://iri.columbia.edu/~blyon/REFERENCES/P38.pdf

I had some pretty big Novembers in Colorado in my analogs. 1992 has had some similarities in recent weeks, and has been a strong precip analog here since July - near identical monthly totals excepts in August when a thunderstorm missed our airport. Even blended in with some of the lesser years, there was a pretty good signal for snow for Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico in November this year. December will likely quiet down some for Colorado, but we'll see how that goes.

Weaker and more West based than last year, but certainly a Modoki El Nino at least for Fall (we seem to be transitioning to a basin-wide look though for actual winter). Japan uses 165E-140W, 10N-10S as their Nino 3.4 ("Box A") - that zone is definitely in an El Nino look. The waters by Peru are colder too. So more of a Modoki than last year. Will be curious to see if the +SOI the CFS continues to show for December has to do with the Indian Ocean Dipole flipping this month, hard to get the Australia part of the +SOI without that.

I went with 1-4", 2-5", 4-8" for Albuquerque by elevation Wed-Thu tentatively - but may change tomorrow. The models all have at least some kind of transition to snow in the city late, it's just how quickly, and how much moisture. European keeps showing 6-12" for the whole city, which I think is way too high for most. NAM has 1-4" which I think is probably too low for some areas. GFS is 0-1", with hardly any rain even.

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now. SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure. Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9 21NOV2018 22.6 0.8 26.3 1.3 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.0

This is one of the widest spreads I've ever seen for Albuquerque within 84 hours - literally near 0 rain to near 10 inches of snow. I've been leaning toward a coating to three with some rain, but I'd like to see the European win.

This would be a good little storm for Albuquerque - 24 hours through Thanksgiving Morning.

Some re-development of the warmth below the surface, but that little cold area may make it up anyway. That's kind of what happened in 1992-93, which was very similar to this year in June-Sept at the surface, before a small cold area showed up Nino 3.4 at the surface in winter. Then, in early 1993, more warmth surfaced and El Nino returned.

I'd really like to see another 0.7"+ precipitation here by the end of the month. We haven't had a record wet-month for the 1931-now era in Albuquerque since September 2013 when 3.97" fell. The GFS and European are really struggling with the storms for NM & CO this week again. I think they'll start to have a unified message by Sunday Night though. Weather.com currently has a snowy Wednesday Night for Albuquerque, which would be a mess for travel. There are some striking similarities to the Fall pattern so far, both in the US and for global ocean patterns/oscillations. One thing that would really cement last year as a good analog is the CFS depiction of a positive SOI burst (La Nina) in December, at basically the same magnitude as last December. I don't think the once-in-a-century cold places like Billings experienced last February would necessary repeat, but you'd probably see another warm month in the SE US with cold displaced somewhere to the NW of that zone if the SOI verified at +10 in December. It'd be a huge change from November if nothing else, since we are running around -9 so far.

CFS is starting to go to my December forecast, with a cold center of the US. Here is the scary thing: it has a big +SOI (La Nina) in December. That happened last year. If it happens again, the South will roast later in the winter. See how the red is by 150W, 15S and the blue is by Australia around 15S? That's where Darwin & Tahiti are. In December 2018, Darwin was 1006.2 MB, and Tahiti was 1011.7 MB for a +9.14 SOI. Map below has ~1006 for Darwin and ~1012 for Tahiti.