raindancewx

Warmer than the 2017 La Nina through August, by around 0.4C according to the ECMWF. New forecast for September should be out soon. Nino 3 was near La Nina conditions but still Neutral, with Nino 1.2 near -1.0C for August on the ECMWF graphs. Nino 4 remained quite warm, around +0.8C warmer than in 2017 in August. To me, that's the difference between a La Nina winter and a Neutral winter, but we'll see.

The subsurface data came in for August for 100-180W: -0.08, after being positive in July. Closest years for Jun-Aug, in order, are 2000, 2017, 2008, 2003, 1987, 1996. 2017 should continue to fall off as a close match going forward, as the subsurface was much colder by August. 100-180W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 0.59 0.94 1.19 0.41 0.07 0.24 0.13 -0.08 2000 -1.28 -0.91 -0.64 -0.31 -0.18 0.08 0.03 0.00 2017 0.01 0.15 0.22 0.06 0.30 0.22 0.16 -0.40 2008 -1.50 -1.20 -0.45 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2003 0.27 -0.11 -0.06 -0.49 -0.85 0.13 0.53 0.03 1987 1.22 0.17 0.60 0.31 0.58 0.37 -0.10 0.20 1996 -0.29 -0.12 0.05 0.01 -0.16 0.17 -0.18 -0.35 Something like this is pretty close. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 100-180W Jun Jul Aug 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 2008 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 2008 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 Mean 0.20 0.19 -0.06 2019 0.24 0.13 -0.08 The surface was still borderline El Nino in August for Nino 3.4, although Nino 3 is pretty cold now. Subsurface isn't super-strongly predictive for Nino 3.4 in DJF, in August, but I get 26.325C for Nino 3.4 in DJF using the Aug subsurface, and if you hindcast for 1979-2018, it should be within 0.7C of that 80% of the time - I'd call 27.0C and above an El Nino, and 26.0C or less a La Nina. The average error for the last 10-years is 0.4C from what the formula projects. Closest SOI matches to Jun-Aug since 1931 include 1992 and 2004. Some very cold and snowy winters in that list for me, but should change a lot in Fall/Winter. SOI Jun Jul Aug 1946 -8.8 -9.5 -4.0 1949 -10.9 -1.6 -4.0 1959 -5.3 -4.0 -4.0 1963 -10.2 -2.2 -2.8 1992 -11.9 -6.5 0.8 2004 -13.0 -6.4 -6.7 2019 -10.0 -5.9 -3.1 1959/1992/2004 as a blend is -10.1/-5.6/-3.3 - and almost exact match for this year. If you warmed it up 0.1C or so everywhere...not bad as a match for something purely SOI derived.

My methods aren't that radical, I just blend in the actual weather conditions in the US with the background climate signals and run it all forward instead of using only weather or only background signals. Similar weather over a long period is usually an indicator of similar MJO tendencies if nothing else. Florida was hit by a lot of hurricanes in 2004, and the SST pattern globally has been fairly similar to late Summer 2004. It probably won't last. A lot of years with a sudden NAO flip in mid-Summer also tend to see high Atlantic hurricane activity, and the NAO has been neutral/positive of late after the extended negative period. I mentioned 1992 because the path is kind of like Andrew last I looked on the European, but also the 2004 and 1964 storms. That run due west into Florida is fairly rare if you look at historical tracks, were it to verify - it is a hint.

Kind of leaning toward this blend for Fall 2019 analogs. Not going to do a Fall forecast, my Summer analogs look fine for September still. I suspect I'll put in another low solar year and switch out 1992 or 2013 for winter, but we'll see. The hurricane set to hit Florida from the east is a good omen for 1992/2004 having likeness to this year.

You can play it both ways - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 have warmed in recent days. Dorian has me looking at 1964...because of Dora. But it isn't similar at all. There is still a lot of warmth to be overcome in the Tropical Pacific. I have issues with 2013, but it the oceans are starting to look more like 2013 than prior months did. 2004/2013 with lower solar and some other adjustments is getting close to the look of recent months. The July Jamstec had showed a cold Nino 3/3.4 in Sept-Nov burning off later. There is a lot of cool and warm subsurface water to swing Nino 3.4 around like a yo-yo for a while.

The 8/15-8/25 average high in Albuquerque was 94.3F - tied with 2007 as the hottest since 1931 for that period. 1973 and 1948 are very close too. August probably won't quite reach the intensity of the heat of 2011, the record here, but we're pretty close - I think 92.8F now, and 2011 finished at 93.8F. Of course...2011 was a good winter here, and 1973, 1948, and 2007 were all decent to great too. I have a model that looks at snow in the SW, and the hot dry Summers are not actually the ones that precede the worst winters typically. It is typically the hot/wet winters that do, like 2017. The cold June to warm August transition has happened in decent winters like 2009 and 2000. If anything, our hottest Augusts tend to precede one very cold winter month here. Pretty sure Roswell hit 109F the other day, which is stupid hot for this late in the year, with some elevation.

Slow cooling in Nino 3.4 and 4 over the past month. August subsurface for 100-180W in the tropical pacific looks slightly negative. The NAO has also come up recently to near neutral after spending mid-April to a few days ago in deep, consistent negative values. The PDO also looks less canonically positive than a few days ago as the waters off Alaska cool some. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1.2 warming like the weeklies do recently, with Nino 4 cooling off to +0.4 int he days after this time frame ended (centered on 8/21). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 27JUL2016 21.3 0.1 24.8-0.6 26.6-0.5 29.0 0.2 03AUG2016 21.5 0.5 24.7-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 10AUG2016 21.0 0.1 24.5-0.7 26.3-0.6 28.6-0.1 17AUG2016 21.1 0.5 24.5-0.5 26.3-0.5 28.7 0.0 24AUG2016 20.8 0.2 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.6 28.6-0.1 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 15AUG2018 20.9 0.2 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.4 29.5 0.8 22AUG2018 20.4-0.2 25.1 0.1 27.1 0.3 29.0 0.4

In Albuquerque, we're going to be at six days with a high of 95F or hotter in the 8/15-9/30 period by the end of tomorrow. That's pretty rare since 1931. The composite of the six years to have that much heat late include two years after an El Nino - 1983, 1973, and also 1945, 1948, 1979 and 2011. Composite looks like this - 1936 was a year with major heat waves in the US during Summer, and had the warm pool off Alaska with a cold Nino 1.2 - probably one of the better matches to this year pre-1950, but way too cold in Nino 4. August is starting to finally move away from Nino 3.4 warmth but it has been pretty slow.

The relationship between the NAO monthly values in May-April and Sept-Mar as a blend tends to be pretty predictive for what it will do in winter, going by the past 20 years. May-Apr and Sept-Mar last year was near identical to 1975 for the NAO, and then the NAO was positive, but not extremely so, like in 1975. August -NAO also tends to precede cold Decembers in the East, if Nino 4 warmth (currently near record warmth) doesn't over-rule it (stronger correlation for Nino 4 the closer you get to Dec). Should be a very difficult winter to forecast actually. I lean toward the US being warm in December, with a patch of near average in the South from NC to AZ, but we'll see.

The scale is different in 2019, but it looks to me like the coolness in Nino 1.2/3 will peak in Fall, and then warm. The warmth in Nino 3.4/4 looks like it it will persist in fall, and then cool.

Been a long-time here since the trend in anomalies in Summer highs has gone cold, warmer, warmest for June, July, August. June was -2.1, July +1.5, and August should be around +3.0 in terms of highs against the respective long-term averages. 2000 and 2009 both had cold Junes that gradually gave way to a lot of warmth. The monsoon is fairly likely to finish below average here now too - about a 72% chance that the rains in the remainder of Aug/Sept will not be enough for the city to reach 4.31 inches of rain from 6/15-9/30. Leaning toward a very wet, slightly warm winter for now. Something like 2016, 2018, 2009, 2007, 2004, 2013 as a blend? Will have a better idea by mid-September.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 Nino 4 is near record warm for August - 29.77C in 2015 is the highest it has been measured. I think it will finish around 29.55C in 2019. We're "behind" (warmer) El Nino to La Nina years in Nino 4- so I remain in camp Neutral at this point, as Nino 4 will be able to fight off pulses of cold from the East and subsurface. The past month is like 2018 (Western areas) and 2017 (Eastern areas). 26JUL1995 20.8-0.5 25.1-0.3 26.8-0.3 28.6-0.1 02AUG1995 20.3-0.8 24.8-0.5 26.7-0.3 28.5-0.2 09AUG1995 19.9-1.0 24.3-0.8 26.3-0.6 28.3-0.4 16AUG1995 20.0-0.7 24.3-0.7 26.4-0.4 28.5-0.2 29JUL1998 23.2 2.0 24.9-0.5 25.7-1.4 27.8-1.0 05AUG1998 22.6 1.7 24.8-0.4 25.6-1.4 27.9-0.8 12AUG1998 21.8 1.1 24.6-0.5 25.5-1.4 27.8-0.9 27JUL2005 20.8-0.5 25.4 0.0 27.1 0.1 28.9 0.1 03AUG2005 20.8-0.2 25.2-0.1 26.9-0.1 28.8 0.1 10AUG2005 20.6-0.2 25.2 0.1 26.9 0.0 28.7 0.0 17AUG2005 20.4-0.2 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.2 28.9 0.2 25JUL2007 20.3-1.0 24.5-1.0 26.6-0.5 28.9 0.1 01AUG2007 19.6-1.5 24.1-1.2 26.4-0.6 28.7 0.0 08AUG2007 19.3-1.6 23.8-1.3 26.2-0.7 28.6-0.1 15AUG2007 19.7-1.0 24.0-1.0 26.3-0.6 28.6-0.1 28JUL2010 19.5-1.7 24.0-1.4 25.6-1.4 27.8-1.0 04AUG2010 19.5-1.5 24.0-1.3 25.8-1.2 27.7-1.0 11AUG2010 19.6-1.2 24.1-1.0 25.7-1.2 27.5-1.2 18AUG2010 19.2-1.4 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.2 27.5-1.1 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 15AUG2018 20.9 0.2 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.4 29.5 0.8 Long term, Nino 4 is warmth pretty strongly correlated to a cold October. It is a warm signal for the West and North in September - but weak.

One thing about this winter that may be different from last year - the MJO has been kind of dead for a while. If it locks in as dead, the temporary incredible cold shots and heat waves that dominated last winter seem less likely - more consistent weather through the whole winter. The pattern of late (cold middle) has been remarkably consistent, this August still looks a lot like last August in most of the US, and the Plains had the severe fall/winter/spring too.

Historically, out of every 3 month period from 1950-2018, only 8.7% see a -NAO (at or below -0.3) each month. The four month streaks are somewhat rarer (5.0%), and by six months it is down to 1.5% historically. So the NAO is fairly likely to go neutral/positive in Sept or Oct, which would be months five or six of the -NAO streak. The math in winter is the same - 6/69 winters (8.7%) of Dec-Feb periods see each month at -0.3 or less. My hunch is there is a big -NAO winter (overall maybe not each month) coming in the next two-three years, but I don't know that it is this one. I'd guess 2020-21, but we'll see. The 12 month sunspot mean was 5.5 for July 2018-June 2019, and we got down to 2.3 for July 2008-June 2009, centered around early 2009 for the absolute min. So early 2020 is the target with the current cycle, and then maybe a -NAO winter after that, like in 2009-10.

Looking historically, it is fairly rare to get extended -NAO streaks (-0.3 or lower for more than three months). Will be interesting to what happens. August will be month four. If you match up the difference in the monthly NAO for May-Apr and Sept-Mar ahead of a given winter, you can usually get a pretty good sense of what the NAO will do in winter. The May-Apr and Sept-Mar readings last year for the NAO were near identical to 1975-76, a year near the solar minimum that had a positive NAO during winter. Will be interesting to see what September finishes with for the monthly NAO-reading. NAO Sept-Mar May-Apr DJF 1975 2.17 1.08 0.23 2018 2.60 0.88 0.50 I'm assuming the -NAO stays in September, but it comes up toward 0. If that is the case, 2017 and 1994 might be a good blend for the NAO in 2019. I selected these time periods because they have fairly high correlations to winter (each has an r-square near 0.1 individually for 1950-2018), and Sept/Mar represent the highest/lowest points for Atlantic heat, and May is usually a good indicator for how the Spring/Summer will setup in the Atlantic. 1994 -2.58 -1.71 1.36 2017 -1.35 -3.64 1.30 Mean -1.97 -2.68 1.33 2019 -1.80 -3.09 The subsurface is still pretty cold east of 120W, and even in the western part of Nino 3.4, there is a fair amount of cool water below the thin warm patch near the surface.

I was kind of surprised at how close 2004 has been for SSTs globally for the past month. Fairly strong match for local weather here since Spring too. My hunch is the blue area off South America expands, and the deep reds by 180W shrink somewhat. PDO zone will likely fill in red around 180W too, as the waters by Alaska cool a bit, relative to normals.

The August Jamstec has gone back to near-El Nino conditions again for winter, about 0.5C lower than what it forecast last August for 2018-19, when it correctly had the ONI peak around +1.0 (it was +0.9C). Even so, the US is not depicted as particularly cold anywhere. The latest run has the East Coast slightly cold, the rest of the US warm.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO PDO is still hanging around +1 on the JISAO methodology - 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 I got a response about the Jamstec Modoki data from Toru Miyama. On the link he gives, you can download the data. The Modoki value for the 2018-19 winter was +0.51, below 2009, 1968 and the other most Modoki winters. It was actually around +0.4 in Dec-Jan, but instead of lowering in February as my analogs had, it increased, which is why February went kind of nuts for the Plains (coldest month in Billings since 1936). The year I double weighted for the 2018-19 forecast, 1994-95, did have a Modoki value virtually identical to last winter, so I think the blend I had was pretty decent for the tropical pacific.

I asked one of the Jamstec researchers on Twitter to update the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) data - it hasn't been updated since November for the monthly data. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 Nino zones still aren't dramatically different in the East from 2017, but the western zones were far colder by this point in 2017. Will be hard for a La Nina to form if Nino 3.4 / 4 stay pretty warm for much longer. I was looking through the DJF data earlier - I think Nino 4 could end up around 28.70C (colder than last year, well above average though), with Nino 1.2 around 24.00C (cooler than average and last year). I wanted to see if that was a record temperature disparity between the two zones during winter. It is not, but it isn't far off from the spread in 1953-54, which is the record, when you had a very cold Nino 1.2 (23.25C) and a warm Nino 4 (28.37C). Nino 4 is a fairly strong wet signal for the West when it is warm. The subsurface stuff has a different scale now? The subsurface almost looks like a "warm-Neutral" Modoki. Will be curious to see what the Jamstec has this month. Pending August, a blend of 1995-96 (x2), 2004-05, 2009-10 (x3), 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2018-19 looks somewhat like the ocean pattern I expect for winter, while also matching my monthly Summer highs and monthly Summer precipitation. As a blend, Nino 3.4 would be +0.3C v. 1951-2010 (26.8C), with a warmer Nino 4 and much colder Nino 1.2 and Nino 3. As a blend, it is a weakly positive PDO (which I like if Nino 1.2 stays cold), with a warm Atlantic and low solar. Will continue to revise and test analogs as Summer data comes in. As a blend, those year follow a 26.95C or so Nino 3.4 winter, and 2018-19 was 27.39C.

My hunch is the Nino 1.2 / Nino 3 coolness will keep the PDO from maintaining that big blob of warmth off the coast of Alaska. The NAO is still negative, and should finish August negative. The very warm AMO / cold East warm West tropical Pacific is relatively similar to 2012, but with a few major differences. Big persistent -NAO in these months of 2012 too. A warmed up 2012 in the tropical Pacific, after an El Nino, with lower solar is probably a colder, wetter winter than 2012-13 nationally, but we'll see. I want to see how August plays out locally, not a lot of Summers following an El Nino winter that go cold June before warming up late. Monsoon has been weak/erratic so far, which is atypical with a positive PDO/low solar, but consistent following a wet cold/winter in the Southwest - will be interesting to see how we finish for Summer rains.

Almost all the European plumes have joined the Neutral train. The model had the right idea for the El Nino last August for reference. Nino 1.2 is forecast to remain quite cold for the foreseeable future - with Nino 3 maybe dropping negative, than warming slightly positive. Nino 4 is forecast to remain positive throughout the foreseeable future.

It looks to me like the warm waters 140W-170W are going to remain and get reinforced, while the cold waters 120W and east are also going to get reinforced. Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. So..Neutral into Fall at least?

In an SOI sense, May (-7.4), June (-10.0), July (-5.9) is pretty similar to recent years like 1992, 1993, 2002, 2006. A low solar El Nino winter after an El Nino would be very difficult to analog with historical years. 2004, 1987, 2015 all had 50-70 sunspots in July-June on an annualized basis. We'll probably be at...10 or so. Or less. 1930 had 40/month after the weak El Nino of 1929-30. SOI May Jun Jul Match 2019 -7.4 -10 -5.9 0 2006 -7.7 -6.7 -8.6 6.3 1946 -10.0 -8.8 -9.5 7.4 1949 -4.8 -10.9 -1.6 7.8 1993 -7.3 -14.4 -10.1 8.7 1992 0.4 -11.9 -6.5 10.3 2002 -13.8 -6.8 -7.1 10.8

I haven't looked - how similar was July 2019 to the heat wave in Europe in 2003 synoptically?

Weeklies show more heat decay in Nino 1.2 / 3 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2