raindancewx

This winter/spring makes me think that "atmospheric" El Nino (SOI, etc) matters more for the Eastern US than "ocean El Nino" (ONI, SSTs, PDO, etc). Will be interesting to see if there are more disjointed El Ninos (by SOI v. SST) like this in the future. In the 1930s, during the Dustbowl, there were years that tried to be El Ninos during low-solar, warm AMO periods that ended up with huge cold snaps in the West and Plains, I wonder if that's going to become more common again. The 2017-18 cold season was an unusually strong East-based La Nina like 1933-34 was (Nino 1.2 coldest in over 30 years during US winter for a few months), during a very low-solar period (similar AMO seasons too, even for hurricanes).

Doesn't look a La Nina is coming soon to me, but I do think a steady decline to Neutral conditions is pretty likely into late Summer or Fall now.

Amazing how much big storms in Spring help with the snow pack.

The flow on the Rio Grande River is currently around 10x higher than last April in parts of New Mexico. This time last year, the riverbed of the Rio Grande south of Socorro was sandy, the edges of its channel strewn with desiccated fish. Even through Albuquerque, the state’s largest river was flowing at just about 400 cubic feet per second, exposing long sandbars and running just inches deep. This year, the Middle Rio Grande is booming, nearly ten times higher than it was last April—and it’s still rising. Running bank-to-bank, the river’s waters are lapping up over low spots along the bank, nourishing trees and grasses, replenishing groundwater and creating much-needed habitat for young fish and other creatures. Combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo is about 324,000 acre feet as of Thursday, or roughly 14 percent capacity. Last fall, storage in the two reservoirs dropped below three percent. Levels in those two reservoirs matter not only to downstream water users, but also those upstream along the Rio Grande. Since last May, New Mexico has had to abide by Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact of 1938. When combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs drops below 400,000 acre feet, Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any of the upstream reservoirs built after 1929. This includes Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs in New Mexico. Now, water managers expect that New Mexico will be out of Article VII restrictions in mid-May. Once that happens, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which supplies water to irrigators in the Albuquerque area, can start holding water in upstream reservoirs. They’re expecting to store about 40,000 acre-feet of water before water levels drop again later this year. http://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/04/26/rio-grande-roars-to-life-with-runoff/

These maps aren't perfect, but the severe winter for snow I imagined in the Plains largely developed as forecast - eastern Dakotas got smoked. Snow pack is excellent throughout most of the West too.

If the monthly figure in Nino 3.4 is above 28.52C - entirely possible as the monthly data is different than the weeklies - that's one of five warmest readings since 1950.

Snow pack is pretty good right now for most of the West. New Mexico has a three week window left for meaningful snow above 8,000 feet, after mid-May, it will be difficult for even a few inches below 11,000-13,000 feet.

Mountaintops are getting 1-3 feet of snow with the storm today in New Mexico. There were huge SOI drops from 4/9-4/13, so the storm today is consistent with the time frame expected. Wettest March since 2005 in Albuquerque, wettest April since 2007 - and we may beat 2007 in an hour or two. Snow pack is spectacular on some of the mountains in the north.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 Steady. Subsurface heat for 100-180W is back down to +0.7 after hitting +1.5 around 3/1 (page 11 on the link). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

MJO has re-awakened for a jaunt through phases 2-3, for a week to ten days if the European is right. Cold signal for lots of the US in April. SOI is still behaving like an El Nino for the most part. Models are trending to a storm over the SW around Monday/Tuesday in light of the big crash from 4/9 to 4/11 (35 points) or the 4/11 to 4/13 crash. You tend to get a low in the SW ten days after a big crash. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Apr 2019 1010.44 1010.50 -17.67 -3.02 -7.02 19 Apr 2019 1011.70 1011.75 -17.59 -2.63 -6.77 18 Apr 2019 1013.01 1011.75 -8.15 -2.16 -6.47 17 Apr 2019 1012.26 1011.40 -11.03 -1.94 -6.26 16 Apr 2019 1012.95 1011.55 -7.14 -1.86 -6.12 15 Apr 2019 1013.08 1011.25 -4.04 -1.93 -6.12 14 Apr 2019 1011.39 1011.10 -15.14 -2.11 -6.13 13 Apr 2019 1009.59 1011.10 -28.12 -1.89 -6.01 12 Apr 2019 1009.69 1010.60 -23.80 -1.53 -5.80 11 Apr 2019 1010.80 1010.80 -17.23 -1.24 -5.60 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Mid-40s at my place with peak heating in mid-April, rain and hail. Pretty impressive...and sure enough lots of tornadoes likely the next few days.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see.

Ruidoso, Santa Fe and most high elevation zones have had good snows in the past week. Here is Ruidoso.

Nate Mantua sent out the March PDO value for 2019 the other day, and their new website. PDO Index values for 2019 January 0.66 February 0.46 March 0.37 The updated and full UW-JISAO version of the PDO index is now available online at: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Nate

European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening.

Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by a 25 point drop in one or two days in early March 1993, can't remember which. A 24.5 drop in two days would imply a big storm in the SW around 4/20 as I mentioned above - we'll see. Might be something smaller around 4/17 too.

Spring out here can do whatever it wants - wind, hail, snow, heavy rain, tornadoes, derechos, dry lines, cold fronts - all possible in that zone. We've only hit 80F one time this year in Albuquerque so far - today - and lots of 50s are coming this week, with more rain/snow possible through Saturday. The mountains will have 50-100 inches of unmelted snowpack while Roswell will be in the 90s this week.

AMO is still pretty similar to the 1950s, despite the AMO trending up by +0.2C every 70 years. 2019 19.344 18.995 19.014 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 1953 19.443 18.917 18.852 19.447 20.343 21.495 22.792 23.434 23.346 22.424 21.425 20.338 1954 19.407 18.831 18.814 19.123 20.073 21.321 22.406 23.164 23.058 22.247 21.157 20.031 1955 19.259 18.778 18.758 19.235 20.182 21.418 22.722 23.355 23.275 22.561 21.573 20.342 1956 19.372 18.835 18.733 19.205 19.951 20.963 22.366 23.085 22.986 22.242 21.103 20.107 1957 19.107 18.637 18.702 19.071 19.890 21.218 22.499 23.388 23.298 22.437 21.276 20.170 1958 19.239 18.935 19.068 19.493 20.215 21.454 22.626 23.350 23.292 22.442 21.380 20.313 1959 19.293 18.863 18.700 19.146 20.024 21.176 22.433 23.203 23.208 22.405 21.248 20.206 1960 19.372 18.968 18.818 19.249 20.322 21.557 22.738 23.529 23.296 22.591 21.450 20.236 1961 19.259 18.835 18.881 19.382 20.215 21.273 22.451 23.232 23.091 22.327 21.269 20.314 1962 19.350 18.908 18.900 19.245 20.047 21.172 22.464 23.136 23.095 22.366 21.251 20.294 1963 19.361 18.925 18.871 19.264 19.942 21.199 22.439 23.128 22.891 22.231 21.150 20.046

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 El Nino through at least FMA.

There is a new MEI data set out there now, for anyone interested since Klaus Wolter retired. SOI should see a big drop in the next few days if the Euro MSLP forecasts are right. The -NAO forecast over the next few days is a fairly strong cold signal for cold in New Mexico in June, and the West generally in May. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

I'm expecting the second half of April to be pretty active for high terrain blizzards and severe weather. The SOI spiked to very positive numbers in recent days, but the Euro depicts a reversal to negative positioning early next week. A rapid drop is fairly likely, and should put a big storm in the SW somewhere, probably after 4/18 but before 4/22.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.14 27.21 0.93

The subsurface warmth below the surface may be weakening some with the warmth surfacing now. My hunch is by the official metrics we stay in El Nino territory into June or so, and then stay in Neutral. I don't have a good sense for next winter yet.

Good overview of the 3/12 storm in NM here - https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/index.html?appid=373f768d438046dba729395b27643fcd