raindancewx

My hunch is the AMO peaked for Summer-time SST warmth around 2012, and we'll continue to not beat the lows achieved that September. The periods near the prior AMO shifts tend to have stories like this if you look back in newspaper archives from the 1800s and 1900s. During the prior peak of the AMO warmth in the 1950s, there were reports that Summer sea ice extent was around 5 million square kilometers at peak melt. Other than 2012, that's not dramatically different than now. There were also reports earlier in 2019 of volcanic ash reaching near 50,000 feet above sea level, before the final data was corrected lower - eventually there will be a big volcanic eruption in the tropics, it's coming up on 30 years now since Pinatubo. Severe cold in the West & Plains, ala 2016-17 or 2018-19 during winter also tends to occur near AMO shifts historically. Look at 1932-33, 1935-36, or the winters around 1960. https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/58314725

Snow still plainly visible on the highest mountains of New Mexico...on June 18, 2019.

June temperature anomalies look a lot like a slightly cooler version of my analogs nationally in the US - 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend. Hot West of the Continental Divide...slightly cool elsewhere. There was a strong signal in the data for a very hot Southeast US in July. I think we may get a big derecho at some point in July around the ring of heat. Changes are pretty interesting compared to June 2018 globally. If the El Nino holds on into winter 2019-20, there are a lot of interesting problems in trying to analog that. There are no low solar 2nd year El Ninos if you annualized solar activity from July-June so that it is centered on winter. 1953-54 kind of meets the bill, but that year didn't have a 27.0C Nino 3.4 for winter, and neither did 1952-53. 1987-88, 2015-16, 1977-78, 1958-59 and 1969-70 all had higher solar activity. In some ways 2003-04, or 2004-05 are kind of a decent match. Solar is too high though. Nino 3.4 was 27.38C in Dec-Feb 2018-19. If you convert the old data sets to mimic the ERSST V.5 / modern ONI data, the closest SSTs to last winter were 1941, 1963, 1976, 1987, 2004, 2006 (27.18C-27.58C). If you look at what the models show, and want a similar strength El Nino, prior winter ENSO, Modoki structure, PDO, AMO, solar conditions, with fairly similar conditions, a blend of 1952-53, 1953-54, 1986-87, 1987-88, 2009-10, 2016-17 seems fairly strong, but the PDO doesn't match on the models to that blend.

Well behind the development of the 2015 Super El Nino at this point. Particularly in Nino 1.2, but Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 are much colder too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 29APR2015 26.8 1.9 28.3 1.0 28.8 1.0 30.0 1.4 06MAY2015 26.9 2.3 28.4 1.2 28.8 1.0 29.9 1.2 13MAY2015 26.4 2.1 28.2 1.1 28.8 1.0 29.8 1.1 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2 10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 17JUN2015 25.4 2.7 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.9 1.1 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0

Would not want to be in that building. So far, my Summer 2019 analogs are doing pretty well for Albuquerque in June. Summer 2019 Analogs, 6/1-6/15 ABQ Average High 1966 88.5F 1966 88.5 1987 84.7 1992 84.2 1993 88.2 2015 86.9 Blend: 86.8F Actual 6/1-6/15 in 2019 85.8

Taos Powderhorn in New Mexico (11,000 feet up) still has 33 inches of snow. We don't have glaciers here - so that's the about the most snow you'll ever see this late into the year. The subsurface kind of looks like a Modoki El Nino at the moment, warm middle sandwiched by cold on each side. Albuquerque high for 6/1-6/14 is only 85.7F - that's cold enough to mean June will be our 9th month in a row with a year/year drop in monthly highs since it would have be 99 degrees each day June 15-30 to match last year. Pretty unusual in the context of the last 100 years, even after prior very warm years here like 1933-34 or 2005-06. The AMJ ONI figure is probably going to be right around 28.5C. I'd have to look but I think that's pretty easily top 10 since 1950 for that period in Nino 3.4.

Jamstec June run warmed up its Nino 3.4 forecast through winter 2019-20. Shows a very weak El Nino now. Summer trended colder/wetter, winter looks cold/wet too.

The PDO values in recent months have popped positive using the Nate Mantua method - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.05 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.52 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 I find that the PDO in March-August blended with Nino 1.2 SSTs in October is a good indicator for Nov-Apr PDO values overall. So far, March-August value (Mar-May) is +0.82.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 El Nino lives. Euro did pretty well at this time last June and keeps the El Nino into winter.

Late May-June 2017 were much warmer than 2019 so far, so at 11,000 feet up Taos Powderhorn snow pack is now much larger in 2019 than 2017 on June 8th. Still 48 inches of snow, which is higher - still - than at any point during the 2017-18 snow season.

ONI remained at +0.8C in March-May on the latest update. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.91 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.49 27.85 0.64 My Summer Analog blend was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that looks v. May 2019 in Nino 3.4 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 1966 - 27.55C 1987 - 28.56C 1992 - 28.97C 1993 - 28.71C 2015 - 28.85C May Blend: 28.37C May 2019: 28.49C Weeklies remain warm. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 Subsurface heat is recovering too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Hail...still terrifying. SE New Mexico East of Albuquerque

Updated ONI / CPC numbers for May should be out this week. Subsurface heat fell again in May for the 100-180W zone in the tropical pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2019 3 0.89 1.07 1.36 2019 4 0.39 0.54 0.58 2019 5 0.02 0.07 0.04 The 1.36, 0.58, 0.04 blend is near identical to 2005. Year March April May Match 2019 1.36 0.58 0.04 0.00 2005 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.22 1990 1.14 0.65 0.05 0.30 1981 1.02 0.77 0.24 0.73 1992 0.83 0.38 -0.32 1.09 2002 0.55 0.32 0.07 1.10 Subsurface does look like it is coming back a bit, so 2005 will likely fall off as a good analog.

Here is how my Spring forecast did locally. Damn close for the seasonal high and monthly precip totals in Albuquerque, less good for the monthly highs. Original forecast document from 2/10 with the image below. https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook

Coldest May for Albuquerque since 1980. The Canadian has a somewhat different look nationally for June than the CFS. It still has an El Nino in winter 2019-20, but it did trend weaker this run. Since it has another east-central / basin wide El Nino for 2019-20, the look disfavors the East for cold.

Heat off the SE US this Spring is about as anomalously warm as any patch of waters on the Earth.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 28.6C in Nino 3.4 for May? Some similar Mays would be 1957, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1998. Those are 28.6C +/-0.2C. 1983, 1992 and 2015 are the Mays that are above 28.8C since 1950 in Nino 3.4. Of the years, 1957 looks close to what I expect for June. 1982, 1993, 1997 is too cold, 1987 is too warm, and 1998 is just wrong looking. 1983, 1992 are also too cold. June 2015 doesn't look super far off. A blend of 1957, 1987, 1993, 2015 might be about right, if 1957/1993 are given extra weight. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

MJO looks like it will start June in phase 2 at fairly high amplitude. That's a bit similar to a blend of 1986, 1987, 2001 if you just go by the MJO amplitude and timing. Not super dis-similar as a blend to my analogs or to what the CFS shows. If you look at where the core of the wetness has been in May, you'd probably shift the blue area a bit north, like the CFS has it.

Still about 5.5 feet of snow at 11,000 feet at the Taos Powderhorn site. The Nov-Apr period wasn't as wet as 2016-17, so snow pack never got as high as that year at that site, but the melt off has been slower from peak snow pack to late May.

Severe weather outbreaks this month seem at least partially tied to the big SOI drops, which tend to put big time storms in the SW in 10 days. The big SOI drop 4/10-4/11 correspond well to the storm today. Snowed in Gallup and Grants today in NM, down to 5,000-6,000 feet, which is pretty rare in late May. A lot of areas have seen eight months in a row of measurable snow at fairly low elevations here. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 May 2019 1013.32 1012.95 -8.87 -3.45 -5.56 19 May 2019 1014.04 1012.65 -1.05 -3.74 -5.94 18 May 2019 1014.49 1011.55 10.82 -4.29 -6.33 17 May 2019 1014.27 1010.80 14.88 -4.93 -6.78 16 May 2019 1013.74 1011.85 2.78 -5.79 -7.22 15 May 2019 1013.99 1012.80 -2.59 -6.12 -7.41 14 May 2019 1013.40 1013.15 -9.79 -6.17 -7.60 13 May 2019 1013.23 1013.55 -14.15 -6.35 -7.77 12 May 2019 1013.29 1014.60 -21.74 -6.81 -7.87 11 May 2019 1013.09 1014.50 -22.50 -6.88 -7.84 10 May 2019 1012.54 1011.65 -4.88 -6.71 -7.68 9 May 2019 1011.36 1010.75 -7.03 -6.55 -7.65 8 May 2019 1010.13 1010.55 -14.92 -5.75 -7.69 7 May 2019 1010.34 1010.60 -13.69 -4.44 -7.61 6 May 2019 1011.67 1010.80 -5.04 -3.60 -7.44 5 May 2019 1012.81 1011.25 0.25 -2.97 -7.38 4 May 2019 1013.24 1011.65 0.48 -2.20 -7.39 3 May 2019 1013.43 1011.90 0.02 -1.64 -7.39 2 May 2019 1013.61 1010.55 11.74 -1.32 -7.44 1 May 2019 1012.41 1009.70 9.06 -1.99 -7.49 Near Gallup, NM....May 20th.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 Colder water is surfacing in the Eastern zones. Nino 3.4 still in El Nino territory.

Been a long time since I can remember that much cold water off the coast of Western Mexico. If the PDO is warm in Mar-Aug (and it looks like it will be), with Nino 1.2 near normal that has some interesting implications for next year. The PDO was kind of a mess for the entire Oct-Mar period.

Subsurface now has more cold water than warm water it looks like. Last frame. Still looks like sometime in June or July we'll fall below +0.5C in Nino 3.4 at least for a few weeks and it may start in May. MAM will still be in El Nino territory, probably AMJ too, but MJJ? I lean toward neutral.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO The PDO rapidly rose in April, but for Nov-Apr, the value was +0.51. My winter forecast from 10/12 assumed it would be +0.4. So my method of blend Mar-Aug PDO values with Nino 1.2 in Oct worked pretty well again. 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.052018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.522019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.662019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.462019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.372019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 Also, the Jamstec doesn't have a La Nina coming online anytime soon, but it does show a decay from El Nino to La Nina conditions in Summer. Has the US very hot the next three seasons, outside the SE in winter 2019-20.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 Some weakening at the surface as the cold pool expands. SOI/MJO may be favorable for a rebound soon, we'll see. I went with this for Summer - whether the El Nino lasts or not officially, the long-lead correlation between MAM in Nino 3.4 and July-Sept US temps are pretty strong in some areas. https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt