raindancewx

CPC changes its mind, but by subsurface conditions, or the current ONI baseline 2014-15 was an El Nino. If you use 26.5C, the 1951-2010 average in Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb, the SSTs qualify 2014-15 as an El Nino. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2014 10 27.16 26.75 0.40 2014 11 27.46 26.75 0.71 2014 12 27.32 26.65 0.66 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 2015 5 28.85 27.85 1.01

The 1991-92 El Nino lasted into Summer and the kind of fell apart in Fall. I've been looking at that year. AMJ this year is probably around +0.7C against the base CPC uses. I think a lot of people consider 1992-93 an El Nino but it wasn't in winter by ONI, and then mid-1993 was again for a bit. Since 1950, June has only been above 28.0C one time before going into a La Nina in DJF (SSTs of 26.0C for the following winter, or colder). So will be interesting to see what Nino 3.4 comes in at for June. In 2017, we went from 28.06C in June in Nino 3.4 to 25.72C in Nino 3.4 in DJF for 2017-18, that transition is similar to 1933 in the extended data, but there is no other year that goes that warm, to that cold since 1950. 1983 went from 28.27C in June to 26.0C in DJF 1983-84. If June finishes around 28.35C, that is +0.7C on the CPC standard for June. I kind of lean Neutral for winter, just because there is still some subsurface and surface warmth now, but there is definitely a fair amount of cold below the surface. It has been a while since we've had a Neutral. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Snow pack in this El Nino was much more durable than in recent El Ninos in the mountains of the Southwest -

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 Some weakening of the El Nino at the surface, particularly in Nino 3 in recent weeks. Subsurface heat from 100-180W is declining a bit on the ENSO weekly update too. June is still in El Nino territory. Nothing like 2015 though - 13MAY2015 26.4 2.1 28.2 1.1 28.8 1.0 29.8 1.1 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2 10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 17JUN2015 25.4 2.7 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.9 1.1 The 2015-16 El Nino was also dead already - 11MAY2016 24.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.4 0.6 29.4 0.6 18MAY2016 24.3 0.2 26.9-0.1 28.1 0.2 29.4 0.6 25MAY2016 24.0 0.2 26.6-0.3 27.7-0.1 29.4 0.6 01JUN2016 23.4 0.0 26.4-0.3 27.6-0.2 29.3 0.5 08JUN2016 23.7 0.6 26.6 0.0 27.8 0.1 29.5 0.6 15JUN2016 23.3 0.4 26.6 0.2 27.8 0.2 29.5 0.7 22JUN2016 22.4-0.1 25.9-0.3 27.2-0.4 29.3 0.5

I do think a lot of variability is still natural, how much is an open question. The Arctic is surely, what, half a degree to a degree warmer than in 2012 given that it is warming faster than the temperate zones? Something is counteracting that to change the patterns. Some of that is upper air patterns, but some of it is ocean temperature changes too. The AMO is not dramatically warmer anymore than it was in the prior peak of the AMO warm cycle. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data 1958 19.239 18.935 19.068 19.493 20.215 21.454 22.626 23.350 23.292 22.442 21.380 20.313 1959 19.293 18.863 18.700 19.146 20.024 21.176 22.433 23.203 23.208 22.405 21.248 20.206 1960 19.372 18.968 18.818 19.249 20.322 21.557 22.738 23.529 23.296 22.591 21.450 20.236 The prior peak produced AMO values in the 23.5-23.6C range in late Summer. We now get up to 23.8C, but the frequency of hitting 23.8C has been falling off in Aug/Sept since 2012, so I don't think I'm being too extreme in saying the AMO is holding back record low sea ice to some extent. The (black) ash landing on the highly reflective ice after the Arctic volcanic eruptions in 2011 couldn't have helped either. 2017 19.579 19.135 19.055 19.593 20.491 21.704 22.927 23.661 23.593 22.886 21.709 20.620 2018 19.529 18.974 19.022 19.376 20.179 21.387 22.645 23.467 23.408 22.599 21.240 20.199 2019 19.344 18.995 19.014 19.439 20.270 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 Presumably, we'll melt less ice if this coming in 3-5 years? 1963 19.361 18.925 18.871 19.264 19.942 21.199 22.439 23.128 22.891 22.231 21.150 20.046 1964 19.131 18.783 18.779 19.017 20.070 21.252 22.334 22.970 22.876 22.034 21.044 19.988 1965 19.011 18.587 18.665 19.069 19.934 21.124 22.292 22.997 22.876 22.060 20.937 19.98

My hunch is the AMO peaked for Summer-time SST warmth around 2012, and we'll continue to not beat the lows achieved that September. The periods near the prior AMO shifts tend to have stories like this if you look back in newspaper archives from the 1800s and 1900s. During the prior peak of the AMO warmth in the 1950s, there were reports that Summer sea ice extent was around 5 million square kilometers at peak melt. Other than 2012, that's not dramatically different than now. There were also reports earlier in 2019 of volcanic ash reaching near 50,000 feet above sea level, before the final data was corrected lower - eventually there will be a big volcanic eruption in the tropics, it's coming up on 30 years now since Pinatubo. Severe cold in the West & Plains, ala 2016-17 or 2018-19 during winter also tends to occur near AMO shifts historically. Look at 1932-33, 1935-36, or the winters around 1960. https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/58314725

Snow still plainly visible on the highest mountains of New Mexico...on June 18, 2019.

June temperature anomalies look a lot like a slightly cooler version of my analogs nationally in the US - 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend. Hot West of the Continental Divide...slightly cool elsewhere. There was a strong signal in the data for a very hot Southeast US in July. I think we may get a big derecho at some point in July around the ring of heat. Changes are pretty interesting compared to June 2018 globally. If the El Nino holds on into winter 2019-20, there are a lot of interesting problems in trying to analog that. There are no low solar 2nd year El Ninos if you annualized solar activity from July-June so that it is centered on winter. 1953-54 kind of meets the bill, but that year didn't have a 27.0C Nino 3.4 for winter, and neither did 1952-53. 1987-88, 2015-16, 1977-78, 1958-59 and 1969-70 all had higher solar activity. In some ways 2003-04, or 2004-05 are kind of a decent match. Solar is too high though. Nino 3.4 was 27.38C in Dec-Feb 2018-19. If you convert the old data sets to mimic the ERSST V.5 / modern ONI data, the closest SSTs to last winter were 1941, 1963, 1976, 1987, 2004, 2006 (27.18C-27.58C). If you look at what the models show, and want a similar strength El Nino, prior winter ENSO, Modoki structure, PDO, AMO, solar conditions, with fairly similar conditions, a blend of 1952-53, 1953-54, 1986-87, 1987-88, 2009-10, 2016-17 seems fairly strong, but the PDO doesn't match on the models to that blend.

Well behind the development of the 2015 Super El Nino at this point. Particularly in Nino 1.2, but Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 are much colder too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 29APR2015 26.8 1.9 28.3 1.0 28.8 1.0 30.0 1.4 06MAY2015 26.9 2.3 28.4 1.2 28.8 1.0 29.9 1.2 13MAY2015 26.4 2.1 28.2 1.1 28.8 1.0 29.8 1.1 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2 10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 17JUN2015 25.4 2.7 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.9 1.1 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0

Would not want to be in that building. So far, my Summer 2019 analogs are doing pretty well for Albuquerque in June. Summer 2019 Analogs, 6/1-6/15 ABQ Average High 1966 88.5F 1966 88.5 1987 84.7 1992 84.2 1993 88.2 2015 86.9 Blend: 86.8F Actual 6/1-6/15 in 2019 85.8

Taos Powderhorn in New Mexico (11,000 feet up) still has 33 inches of snow. We don't have glaciers here - so that's the about the most snow you'll ever see this late into the year. The subsurface kind of looks like a Modoki El Nino at the moment, warm middle sandwiched by cold on each side. Albuquerque high for 6/1-6/14 is only 85.7F - that's cold enough to mean June will be our 9th month in a row with a year/year drop in monthly highs since it would have be 99 degrees each day June 15-30 to match last year. Pretty unusual in the context of the last 100 years, even after prior very warm years here like 1933-34 or 2005-06. The AMJ ONI figure is probably going to be right around 28.5C. I'd have to look but I think that's pretty easily top 10 since 1950 for that period in Nino 3.4.

Jamstec June run warmed up its Nino 3.4 forecast through winter 2019-20. Shows a very weak El Nino now. Summer trended colder/wetter, winter looks cold/wet too.

The PDO values in recent months have popped positive using the Nate Mantua method - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.05 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.52 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 I find that the PDO in March-August blended with Nino 1.2 SSTs in October is a good indicator for Nov-Apr PDO values overall. So far, March-August value (Mar-May) is +0.82.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 El Nino lives. Euro did pretty well at this time last June and keeps the El Nino into winter.

Late May-June 2017 were much warmer than 2019 so far, so at 11,000 feet up Taos Powderhorn snow pack is now much larger in 2019 than 2017 on June 8th. Still 48 inches of snow, which is higher - still - than at any point during the 2017-18 snow season.

ONI remained at +0.8C in March-May on the latest update. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.91 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.49 27.85 0.64 My Summer Analog blend was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that looks v. May 2019 in Nino 3.4 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 1966 - 27.55C 1987 - 28.56C 1992 - 28.97C 1993 - 28.71C 2015 - 28.85C May Blend: 28.37C May 2019: 28.49C Weeklies remain warm. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 Subsurface heat is recovering too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Hail...still terrifying. SE New Mexico East of Albuquerque

Updated ONI / CPC numbers for May should be out this week. Subsurface heat fell again in May for the 100-180W zone in the tropical pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2019 3 0.89 1.07 1.36 2019 4 0.39 0.54 0.58 2019 5 0.02 0.07 0.04 The 1.36, 0.58, 0.04 blend is near identical to 2005. Year March April May Match 2019 1.36 0.58 0.04 0.00 2005 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.22 1990 1.14 0.65 0.05 0.30 1981 1.02 0.77 0.24 0.73 1992 0.83 0.38 -0.32 1.09 2002 0.55 0.32 0.07 1.10 Subsurface does look like it is coming back a bit, so 2005 will likely fall off as a good analog.

Here is how my Spring forecast did locally. Damn close for the seasonal high and monthly precip totals in Albuquerque, less good for the monthly highs. Original forecast document from 2/10 with the image below. https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook

Coldest May for Albuquerque since 1980. The Canadian has a somewhat different look nationally for June than the CFS. It still has an El Nino in winter 2019-20, but it did trend weaker this run. Since it has another east-central / basin wide El Nino for 2019-20, the look disfavors the East for cold.

Heat off the SE US this Spring is about as anomalously warm as any patch of waters on the Earth.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 28.6C in Nino 3.4 for May? Some similar Mays would be 1957, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1998. Those are 28.6C +/-0.2C. 1983, 1992 and 2015 are the Mays that are above 28.8C since 1950 in Nino 3.4. Of the years, 1957 looks close to what I expect for June. 1982, 1993, 1997 is too cold, 1987 is too warm, and 1998 is just wrong looking. 1983, 1992 are also too cold. June 2015 doesn't look super far off. A blend of 1957, 1987, 1993, 2015 might be about right, if 1957/1993 are given extra weight. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

MJO looks like it will start June in phase 2 at fairly high amplitude. That's a bit similar to a blend of 1986, 1987, 2001 if you just go by the MJO amplitude and timing. Not super dis-similar as a blend to my analogs or to what the CFS shows. If you look at where the core of the wetness has been in May, you'd probably shift the blue area a bit north, like the CFS has it.

Still about 5.5 feet of snow at 11,000 feet at the Taos Powderhorn site. The Nov-Apr period wasn't as wet as 2016-17, so snow pack never got as high as that year at that site, but the melt off has been slower from peak snow pack to late May.

Severe weather outbreaks this month seem at least partially tied to the big SOI drops, which tend to put big time storms in the SW in 10 days. The big SOI drop 4/10-4/11 correspond well to the storm today. Snowed in Gallup and Grants today in NM, down to 5,000-6,000 feet, which is pretty rare in late May. A lot of areas have seen eight months in a row of measurable snow at fairly low elevations here. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 May 2019 1013.32 1012.95 -8.87 -3.45 -5.56 19 May 2019 1014.04 1012.65 -1.05 -3.74 -5.94 18 May 2019 1014.49 1011.55 10.82 -4.29 -6.33 17 May 2019 1014.27 1010.80 14.88 -4.93 -6.78 16 May 2019 1013.74 1011.85 2.78 -5.79 -7.22 15 May 2019 1013.99 1012.80 -2.59 -6.12 -7.41 14 May 2019 1013.40 1013.15 -9.79 -6.17 -7.60 13 May 2019 1013.23 1013.55 -14.15 -6.35 -7.77 12 May 2019 1013.29 1014.60 -21.74 -6.81 -7.87 11 May 2019 1013.09 1014.50 -22.50 -6.88 -7.84 10 May 2019 1012.54 1011.65 -4.88 -6.71 -7.68 9 May 2019 1011.36 1010.75 -7.03 -6.55 -7.65 8 May 2019 1010.13 1010.55 -14.92 -5.75 -7.69 7 May 2019 1010.34 1010.60 -13.69 -4.44 -7.61 6 May 2019 1011.67 1010.80 -5.04 -3.60 -7.44 5 May 2019 1012.81 1011.25 0.25 -2.97 -7.38 4 May 2019 1013.24 1011.65 0.48 -2.20 -7.39 3 May 2019 1013.43 1011.90 0.02 -1.64 -7.39 2 May 2019 1013.61 1010.55 11.74 -1.32 -7.44 1 May 2019 1012.41 1009.70 9.06 -1.99 -7.49 Near Gallup, NM....May 20th.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 Colder water is surfacing in the Eastern zones. Nino 3.4 still in El Nino territory.