raindancewx

The subsurface numbers for January (300m down, 100W-180W) look like they'll come in around +0.7. A similar transition for Nov-Dec-Jan would be these years blended as a guideline for February. 100-180W Nov Dec Jan 1979 1.06 0.92 0.83 1979 1.06 0.92 0.83 1982 1.92 1.45 0.05 1991 1.22 1.71 1.57 1994 1.16 0.80 0.51 2002 1.58 0.74 0.27 2009 1.75 1.36 1.14 2014 0.90 0.54 0.15 Mean 1.33 1.06 0.67 2018 1.35 1.06 0.70 Here is a look at what those years looked like in February nationally. A lot of the the years with very cold February temps in the US are El Nino with a big collapse in the January subsurface to below El Nino thresholds (+0.5) (2002-03, 2006-07 in the Midwest, 2014-15). Slower fall offs, like this year tend to be less extreme for cold and heat. Big positive SOI Decembers (like the +9.1 in Dec 2018) tend to precede a warm February in the South, and hold down temps on the West Coast, so with the SOI blended in, I think the core of the cold in February is likely over Missouri, rather than say Ohio or New York. With the analog site down, I'm just guessing what the blend looks like, but it seems like a near normal WA/OR/SE US, cold centered in Missouri is what I like for February. Warmth is in the interior NW. It's kind of a warm West / cold East pattern turned 45 degrees to the right from the SOI if that makes any sense since the +SOI December should not impact the SW too much, but will warm up the SE and cool off the NW. Given how the years looked, and the SOI in December, Feb 1983, 1992, 2015 as a simpler blend is probably approximately right. Again, ESRL is down, can't graph these, so I am guessing on the exact look of the blends.

Blue Norther level cold front in the coming days. CPC is impressively confident in the cold, they rate this as a 4/5 confidence in the discussion. We hit 50F here today, first time since Christmas, three weeks ago. Latest in January we've had our first 50F reading since Jan 1977.

My concern initially, for say, five days, is the MJO will move through phases 4-5-6, which are warm this time of the year for the East, sometime between 1/20 and 1/25 if the European depiction is right at fairly high magnitude. I do think the real transition is starting now, my analogs had 5" in Boston through mid-January and then 30" after, so its kind of right on time, but the transition is late enough that I think most places in the East finish slightly warmer than normal for DJF overall. Also, I don't think it will last six weeks for the whole country, I think the core of it is between the Rockies and Mississippi by mid-February, but I agree with your assessment generally.

Roughly half way through Dec-Feb, the weeklies have Nino 3.4 at an average of 27.4C. Against 1951-2010, this is +0.9C or so for that period. The zones West of Nino 1.2 have cooled relatively fast to Nino 3.4 over the past six weeks, with Nino 4 in particular cooling from near record levels. You can see relative to 2014-15 in Dec-Jan, the event is much more of a basin-wide event than 2014-15 was. 2002-03 and 2009-2010 were stronger and far more centered to the West by this time. 2006-07 was stronger at this week, but collapsed very quickly after, which doesn't seem likely. Anyway, new Jamstec should be out soon, and eventually NOAA/CPC will update the monthly Nino 3.4 data. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 17DEC2014 22.9 0.1 26.0 0.8 27.4 0.8 29.4 1.0 24DEC2014 23.1-0.2 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC2014 23.6 0.0 25.9 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.8 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 09DEC2009 22.7 0.2 26.6 1.5 28.2 1.7 29.6 1.1 16DEC2009 22.6-0.2 26.7 1.5 28.3 1.8 29.7 1.2 23DEC2009 23.7 0.5 26.8 1.5 28.4 1.9 29.7 1.3 30DEC2009 24.3 0.7 26.7 1.4 28.3 1.7 29.6 1.2 06JAN2010 24.3 0.4 26.7 1.2 28.3 1.7 29.7 1.3 06DEC2006 22.9 0.5 26.1 1.1 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.1 13DEC2006 22.9 0.2 26.3 1.2 27.8 1.2 29.5 1.0 20DEC2006 23.7 0.6 26.5 1.3 27.7 1.2 29.4 1.0 27DEC2006 24.0 0.6 26.6 1.3 27.7 1.1 29.4 1.0 03JAN2007 24.3 0.5 26.4 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.2 0.8 10JAN2007 24.9 0.7 26.7 1.1 27.5 0.9 29.1 0.8

I'm expecting a fairly big system to come through the West sometime around 1/23. The big SOI drops have all showed up as storms at a lead of 10 days. The problem is they are all weak and/or moisture starved so far. This is the "SOI calendar". Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Jan 2019 1009.64 1006.95 -9.04 2.30 2.80 12 Jan 2019 1011.02 1007.65 -5.84 3.32 3.14 11 Jan 2019 1012.30 1007.20 2.31 4.19 3.51 10 Jan 2019 1011.56 1008.50 -7.30 4.56 3.75 9 Jan 2019 1011.75 1007.65 -2.40 4.94 3.94 8 Jan 2019 1012.44 1007.80 0.15 5.05 3.98 7 Jan 2019 1012.09 1008.40 -4.33 4.93 3.97 6 Jan 2019 1010.17 1007.40 -8.66 5.15 3.97 5 Jan 2019 1008.86 1008.20 -18.60 5.64 3.97 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67 30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50 29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16 28 Dec 2018 1010.84 1003.60 18.27 9.33 3.79 27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34 23 Dec 2018 1011.65 1005.45 12.87 9.35 3.16 22 Dec 2018 1011.39 1005.10 13.34 9.15 2.81 21 Dec 2018 1011.94 1005.35 14.89 8.83 2.36 20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49

These are the top SOI matches for July 2018 to January 2019, assuming January finishes around -8, like it is for 1/1-1/13. 1932, 1957, 1969 all had major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico. Good to see things from those years showing up given what I think March may do. SOI Monthly July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Match 2018 1.8 -6.7 -8.5 2.6 0.6 9.2 -8.0 0.00 2003 3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.9 -2.4 9.0 -12.8 27.30 1948 0.8 -4.0 -7.1 6.6 4.2 -6.8 -7.9 28.80 1954 3.3 9.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 11.5 -5.5 35.30 1932 1.1 4.9 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 1.8 -11.8 35.60 1969 -6.4 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 -0.2 2.3 -10.8 37.10 1957 1.4 -8.2 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 -4.3 -17.5 40.30

New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

The CPC ONI stuff is up, but hasn't been updated for December yet. Our friends at BOM, against 1961-1990, had Nino 3.4 at +0.8C, which is about 27.2C as there are a lot of potent La Ninas in that period (1988, etc). They probably are using a different data set than NOAA/CPC anyway. The December look is fairly east-based on their map. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

Here is a subsurface comparison to 2006-07, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at this time. The rapid collapse in 2007 and 2016 was fairly evident by now. Lots more red...but also blue. Can't get a good animation for 2009-10 for the same time period, but the collapse began in March 2010 that year.

Given the subsurface similarities to Dec 1997 (+1.1 is actually warmer for this year than 1997 for 100-180W) I don't think its too surprising we have somewhat similar weather so far. At a seasonal level the long-term phases of the oscillations matter, but at the sub-seasonal stuff, the MJO beats everything, so 1997-98 with similar MJO progression hasn't been bad as an analog since November. Jan 1998 is almost the same magnitude MJO in phase 8 on 1/8 as today is according to the BOM site MJO archives. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ I'm looking very hard at the El Nino years following a major hit on the Gulf Coast for March. For whatever reason you tend to get extreme Marches after that happens. You can see it last year after Harvey as an example. The five El Nino Springs after a Gulf Coast hurricane hit include 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 2004-05. A lot of crazy cold in unusual patterns in those years. Look at March 1958 as an example, which hasn't been super dissimilar to weather lately. I sincerely doubt the Plains will have more than 2-3 months of extreme warmth in a row like they seem to be. Some kind of correction will come. I'd go less extreme than this, but these type of years seem clustered after the major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico, especially in an El Nino. 1966, after Betsy is kind of the warm March counter example because severe cold came earlier than in the other years. I don't have a Spring Outlook yet, but I do think the Plains are going to pay for their warmth, that seems almost inevitable, it's just where it spreads.

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule. Anyway, weeklies. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

The past eight days (12/26-1/2), once 1/2 is included have had the second coldest mean high in Albuquerque since the 1931-32 winter - 34.0F (11F below 1932-2018 average)

The city had snow today. Very cold for most of the day, it was somehow 34F from like 11:45 pm to 12:05 am and then not above freezing at any other time on 12/31 or 1/1, so that kind of artificially raised highs on both days, oh well. Most of the snow today fell around 20F temps, so most places got 1-5" with only 0.05-0.20" liquid equivalent in town.

Weather.com has the Jan 1-5 high in Albuquerque at about 29F, which is second coldest in the last 100-years for that period if that ends up verifying. It's probably off a bit, but don't think it will be terribly wrong either.

Accuweather's '8%' event verified, it was 2.5" officially. This is what they have next -

I'm looking forward to seeing if this verifies in the favored zone or if Accuweather is way off.

Looks stormy here after Christmas. I'm still a bit skeptical that these systems will have much moisture with the SOI so positive for weeks now (+10.2 for 12/1-12/23), but we'll see. I do think the cold is fairly likely.

It feels so strange to have dew-points in the 30s again after such a prolonged period here with dew-points around 0-10. Just a trace so far in the city, but the best shot for us was always Friday anyway.

Models are kind of a mess with this system for timing, duration and location. Hopefully they become more consistent tomorrow.

CIPS Analogs has a lot of storms from 2002-03, 1987-88, 1984-85, 2000-01, and 2007-08 for this event in its top 15 analogs. SOI matches for Sept-Nov include 1990. I'm pretty sure 1987 and 1990 were good years for OKC in December.

Might get snow in the city Sunday morning. We'll have to see. I've never seen a CPC Outlook like this one for December -

Assuming we finish with almost no precipitation here for November in Albuquerque. I had to re-do my replication analogs. With the very dry November after a very wet October, you have a strong signal now for a wet December in Albuquerque. The interesting thing is almost all of these years have a lot of snow in Feb-Mar here, with little in January, and then average snow in December. I've been doing this replication method for a few years now, this was definitely the hardest blend I've ever had to re-create, as I limit myself to blends where each re-creation is within 0.2" of observed conditions. If you get every month from July-Dec within 0.2", it tends to predict Jan-Jun well overall, i.e. in three month aggregates. Also, 1974 and 2008 are low solar years, 1969 and 2008 have big hurricanes hitting the Gulf of Mexico. Every year in this blend is above average for December.

I had November Blizzards in the Plains for my outlook...so I'm on board. I think Gary Lezak's ideas this year are about right - https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-news/gary-lezaks-winter-forecast-how-much-snow-will-kansas-city-get-this-year

I have a regression for El Nino winter highs here, and it seems to be working well. Low Solar + Big El Nino + After Big La Nina is the ideal for cold. I'd give solar a 10, the El Nino an 7.5, and the La Nina last year a 6.5 as a blend, it's like 24/30, or a solid 8/10 on an "ideal cold" scale. I don't really expect this blend to work at all for precipitation or national temps as it doesn't really incorporate the MJO, or how much colder the Atlantic is in these years, but I think its probably close for DJF highs here.