raindancewx

My pure analogs had 3-5F below average for March in North Texas. I didn't buy it...so I warmed it up 2F. But maybe I should have given what may happen next week. For Albuquerque, every El Nino back to 1931 that has achieved six days with accumulating snow has had a 7th. We had day six on Friday. If the rule holds, it means snow in March or April since we're done with snow in February.

The ice extent on the Atlantic side must be pretty high given the warmth in Alaska? Since the late February extent numbers are above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 2006 and 2005. If that's the case it does kind of make sense, the AMO has been pretty cold recently.

March still looks promising for the El Nino given rising subsurface heat, so we should easily clear five trimesters above +0.5C in Nino 3.4. https://imgur.com/copmt4o Weekly data is centered, i.e. 2/20 is through 2/23. The 12-week average for Nino 3.4 is 27.3C, and CPC uses a DJF average of 26.58C for Nino 3.4. For Dec/Jan, CPC reported slightly different monthly numbers 27.49C (Dec), 27.25C (Jan). February is likely 27.3C (+/-0.15C) on the monthly data. February base is 26.66C according to CPC, so that's still El Nino territory, around +0.65C. ONI will be around +0.7C for DJF. Nino 4 near record territory for Feb warmth is strongly correlated to wetness in the Plains/SW in March, it didn't work in 2016 (snowed near Guadalajara), but we're not quite that warm, it's closer to 2010, 2005, 2003, 2015, 1958, 1995, 1998, etc. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0

This is a pretty interesting winter overall for the US. Increasingly suspicious that the linkage between solar activity and blocking is real, I think there is a better case for solar activity controlling the MJO indirectly. I can't find a winter since 1974 where the MJO has gotten "stuck" as many times as it has this year in high solar activity years. My Spring analogs actually had Texas pretty cold in March - but there are fairly strong correlations between low-solar activity and warmth in the SE 1/3 of the US. Bit of a dry signal for the SW US too. The blend I posted earlier is going to be dead on again locally for February (we're at 49.8F and will finish around 51F in February), and it has been close each month since October. If it has any similar skill at all in March it should be pretty cold in the Southwest in March. At this point I'm curious to see when it breaks, because it will at some point.

Nino 1.2 was the coldest it had been since 1985 in February (25.13C). The March temperature pattern largely reflected that, with the NW somewhat offset by the very -SOI in February which is a strong indicator for March in Washington. We'll see what the weeklies show for the next two weeks, but jumping up to 26.0-26.5C in February seems like a pretty safe bet to warm up the areas above the black line, especially the NW and Lakes. Worth noting that 2011-12 had a 20 point SOI drop from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012, and similar Nino 1.2 readings in Feb 2019 (26.5C). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9

Albuquerque is up to 9.5 inches of snow through 2/23 - that's the Oct-May average, so above average through 2/23. Looking back at October 2018, the MJO went through phases 1-2-3 from Oct 1 to Oct 16, before moving into the dead zone. The MJO is forecast to move through phases 1-2-3 in from 2/25 to 3/10 on the European. In October, huge blobs of tropical moisture came into the SW throughout the month. Will be interesting to see if that happens - for NM, the best precipitation was a week after the move from phase 3 to null, which would be around 3/17 roughly if the MJO timing is right.

SOI is near -16 through 2/23. With only 5 days left in February, it's pretty to safe to assume it will be below -10 in February. The SOI would have to be +12 the rest of the February just to get to -10.7. I've been toying around with the SOI transitions, and if we really do end up at -12, -14, -16, -18 for February, you have to respect that in the data. But I don't think its correct to ignore the +9 in December either, given it has popped up the SE heat as you'd expect in February via correlations (several days near 90F in Florida already). Something like this may be appropriate for March. SOI Dec Jan Feb 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2004 -10.1 1.2 -29.5 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 7.8 -0.2 -10.4 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15.7 Statistically, when October is wetter than September in the SW, March tends to be less dry (p<0.05). The effect is strongest in preventing exceptionally dry Marches in Albuquerque as we've never had a precipitation free March in a year when October was wetter than September, in 36 tries, while it is relatively common if September is wetter than October. Since 2006, only 2008, 2009 and 2011 have had a wetter October than September in New Mexico, so will be interesting to see what happens. No wet Marches for most of NM/AZ outside the far north since 2007. If you guys are in need of a snow fix, the local ski resorts have 40-90 inch bases now. Most of the mountains in the SW have already passed their annual snow totals, and March/April can be very good months.

Two good snow events this week. The snow today I think saved my forecast for a wet winter in Albuquerque and New Mexico - at least 0.30 inches of precipitation, which brings the winter to above average. Highs will finish below average as forecast too.

Through 2/22 the February SOI is down to near -16, the threshold our Kangaroo Buddies consider Strong El Nino territory. Another big Kelvin Wave is heading east and "up" just in time for March.

How many of you had snow in Las Vegas and Los Angeles this winter? People are going nuts about the snow in LA on social media.

This is just my hunch, but I think the European idea that the MJO wave dies in phase 3 may be right. The subsurface analogs (assuming 100-180W comes in around +1.0 in February as it looks right now) implies the MJO gets to phases 7/8/1 in March, but the models have it starting in 2/3. The SOI analogs look a lot closer to the models and current pattern, but that would change if the wave dies in phase 3 and then re-emerges in 6 later in the month. Basically, I think both of these methods below will have some merit in March, but the one on the right is first and may persist longer. The CFS kind of looks like it is a blend of the two ideas. Will be interesting to see what it has in a few days, as it does have some skill late in the month. Of course this may all have to change if the SOI finishes -15 or something or if the subsurface comes in much warmer in February.

The February SOI has actually been at least slightly below 0 each year since 2013. The SOI is going to be kind of wild the next few days, there is a Typhoon east of Australia that should briefly lower pressures by Darwin while Tahiti sees a rise. The SOI still looks negative for 4-5 of the next 7 days on the ECMWF but it is going to pop up briefly. If/when it does, and then it pops down, there should be some kind of reaction in the pattern globally. The CFS should enter its brief period of usefulness around 2/25 in forecasting March. Will be curious to see what it says. If the SOI finishes below -12 in February will probably need to change the blend from above.

Two hour delay at work today since it is snowing and 21F, so can post this. SOI was was -43.6 for 2/19, a huge value. Subsurface heat for February is still increasing in the 100W-180W zone. I think maybe +1.0 is a good estimate for February now.

I'm proud of the local NWS - they are finally acknowledging that elevation matters within the city for snow in a winter storm warning. I think these totals are too high though. I'm at 5,350 feet at my house, so I'd expect just about four inches of snow. NMZ507-519-190700- /O.UPG.KABQ.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/ West Central Highlands- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- 445 PM MST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, except 4 to 8 inches at elevations above 5400 feet and north of I-40. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 45 mph below canyons opening into the middle Rio Grande Valley during the evening. * WHERE...West Central Highlands and Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area and Grants. * WHEN...After occasional snow showers this evening, snow will increase in coverage and intensity after midnight as the east canyon winds die down. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will occur late tonight through Tuesday morning, then periods of light to moderate snow Tuesday afternoon. Accumulating snow will end by late afternoon, though some light snow may linger into the evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult due to snowpacked and icy roads and reduced visibility. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens will occur late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 As Chuck's method implied, the subsurface was showing warmth below Nino 3/3.4. That warmth has been slowly returning to the surface, so the anomalies are getting more positive, even accounting for the warming in Nino 3/3.4 that happens in February. The weekly ENSO update for Summer isn't out because it is a federal holiday. @Great Snow 1717 I have some ideas for June but not beyond that. We tend to have (for us) unusual cold/wetness in June in the SW somewhat more frequently after a dry Nov-Jan. A strong SW US Monsoon is weakly correlated to the +PDO, low Nov-Apr precipitation prior to Summer, and low solar activity. The PDO and Nov-Apr precip are pretty neutral so I don't see a particularly wet or dry Summer here, but the sun is still favorable.

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 18 Feb 2019 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 -6.21 0.65 17 Feb 2019 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 -4.72 1.12 16 Feb 2019 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 -3.35 1.37 15 Feb 2019 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 -2.47 1.44 14 Feb 2019 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 -2.26 1.32 13 Feb 2019 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 -1.77 1.38 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

The SOI is down to near -11 in February and looks pretty negative for the next five days at least. It's actually very difficult to get an SOI blend historically that went +9, -2, -10 for Dec, Jan, Feb respectively. Simplest close blend I found was 1961-62, 1969-70 (x3), 2011-12. These SOI blends tend to work for temps. If February ends up at -20 or +5 somehow, will of course need to change it. https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ SOI Dec Jan Feb 1961 12.5 16.5 -5.2 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 8.3 -1.3 -8.1 2018 9.1 -2.1 -10.0

When I tried to re-create expected solar/ONI/ONI Prior conditions and match Fall highs (Oct/Nov) in Albuquerque, this was the only blend that worked. It's held up remarkably well since I started looking at it in early November. The math says solar, ONI, ONIp account for 70% of the variability in highs here in El Ninos. Will be interesting to see when/if this breaks going forward.

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. @andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies. The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.

New Jamstec is out. It has a bit of a Nino 3.4 rebound before the El Nino falls apart in Summer. US Trended much warmer for Spring. The Jamstec also shows that this El Nino has become less and less of a Modoki event over time.

I mentioned above that I like 1974-75 as an analog for Spring, even though it is a La Nina. Well...it's pretty close for February so far. It had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too.

NOAA says this is now an official El Nino. This is the same time frame as when the 2014-15 El Nino was declared - they wait until the conditions persist/couple. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-announces-arrival-of-el-nino

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07 Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F) Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F) Boston - 41.6F (39.6F) Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F) Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F) Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F) Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F) St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F) Spatially, with what February seems to be doing, this winter may end up resembling something like a diet 1972-73, with a warmer South. We'll have to see. It certainly isn't as cold as 1972-73 in the West, but if you added 3F everywhere, it's not terrible. Highs to date are generally warm east of the Mississippi winter to date, and cold in the West. The SOI has been really cranking lately, by the way. On the ECMWF it looks very negative to slightly negative for each of the next ten days. A reading under -8 for February (El Nino territory again) looks fairly likely. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65