raindancewx

Canadian sees the Kelvin Wave and went stronger for the El Nino in Spring. It is backing off the La Nina look for next winter now.

Coldest winter high (Dec-Feb) in Albuquerque since 2009-10 this winter: 48.1F. Long term average (1931-32 to 2017-18) is 49.5F. More recent average (1988-89 to 2017-18) is 50.5F, so pretty cold. I think fifth or sixth coldest high in winter in the last 30 years for us.

The new Canadian is in. Trended stronger for El Nino in Spring, which makes sense given the slow warming at the surface and below it recently. It has a basin wide look and a colder tropical Atlantic too which is interesting for the hurricane season set up. The relative warmth nationally compared to what is coming the next few days implies a big warm up later in the month, which is consistent with the activity in the Indian Ocean (convection) which showed up before the big December warm up. Here is what it has for Spring temps in the US - March looks pretty similar to the CFS for temps and precip.

The oceans are 30,000 feet deep in places, mostly in the 30s. The entire range in the history of the AMO time series is 1C on an annual basis if you actually look at what I linked despite 150 years of warming. The range is literally 20.27C to 21.27C on an annual basis from 1856-2018. 2018 was 21.00C, not even that close to the record. Whenever someone points out that it may not be quite as bad as you think, or as linearly tied to warming as you think you just go on some tirade. The AMO is essentially a +/-0.5C variation from a mean that is going up by 0.2C / 70 years, so when we cycle back the 1970s part of the pattern you'd expect the ocean to be colder than now. The late 1950s had the AMO peak and then it began erratically dropping, if the cycle is 60-65 years, we're there now, which would explain why the raw temperatures on an annual basis for 2018 are below a lot of years in the 1950s.

It's March. Winter pattern doesn't mean much now. There was a massive drop in the SOI from 2/17 to 2/19: -29 to -43. I think it's the biggest drop from a starting point that low in at least five years. There should be some kind of huge storm somewhere in the US around 3/3, whether it ramps up in the West or the East is an open question. The March 1993 Superstorm had a 25 point drop 10 days ahead of it for comparison, so a 14 point fall is pretty big. All that said, I'd expect the trend on 12z to 18z run (shifting south) to continue. The people in the Northern Plains have been suffering their extreme cold for ages now, something has to come along to snap them back to normal - my guess is its a big powerful storm. 19 Feb 2019 1005.91 1010.25 -43.61 -7.84 0.10 18 Feb 2019 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 -6.21 0.65 17 Feb 2019 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 -4.72 1.12

I used Central Park for NYC and Philly area on this site for checking. There are different numbers sometimes on there than on the local NWS now data sites, but its a nice centralized data base and it seems mostly accurate. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ Snow is very localized, but when I drew my map, the idea was that the immediate coastal cities would do much worse for snow than the interior areas, including the suburbs of NYC, DC, Philly, Boston, etc. Some of the analogs had Maine doing well as it has, same for Virginia. We have the same thing here for suburbs, I'm sure I've had 13-15" snow, but the airport is at 9.5" to date. My analogs attempt to re-create global ocean/solar conditions in blends where everything blended together matches existing or anticipated initial conditions on all the meaningful variables. I'm not looking for individual years that are kind of close on some things and off as a blend, I want a blend that matches on the AMO, PDO, solar, ENSO, Modoki, ENSO prior, and observed weather - and that was why some of the years individually are very different, while the blend is fairly strong overall. I incorporate observed weather as a variable because it is a proxy for pre-1975 MJO conditions if you use the BOM archives and the MJO composites. So the blend of my years gave a 27.4C El Nino, as an example. I have statistical methods for predicting PDO phases and the Modoki structure of an El Nino, they're not perfect, but when I get the inputs right, the blends really do hold for a long time. 1953-54: 27.00 1976-77: 27.18 1986-87: 27.76 1994-95: 27.64 1994-95: 27.64 2006-07: 27.30 Blend: 27.42 Those years as a blend had low solar (around 20 sunspots for July-Jun), near neutral AMO / near neutral PDO conditions too. Fairly basin wide El Nino too. The warmth east of Japan is kind of there like this year in 1994-95, as was the TNH issue with the winter. The year/year change in Nino 3.4 is also pretty positive in those years like this one which favored SW cold. Nino 3.4 will probably finish around 27.3C for DJF. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt This is what the site has for Central Park/NYC for 2006-07 snow - 6.4" through 2/26 NYC (Central Park) through 2/26. 1953-1954 - 15.4 1976-1977 - 23.9 1986-1987 - 21.2 1994-1995 - 11.8 1994-1995 - 11.8 2006-2007 - 6.4 Blend: 15.1" Observed: 10.0"

The SOI is going to finish February somewhere around -15, pretty impressive turn around from +9 in December. There are no strong, objective SOI matches for the Dec-Feb period, but these are the closest. I should note: 1989 is probably going to be the strongest subsurface match for 100-180W, since 1979 for Dec-Feb. Distance SOI Dec Jan Feb 0.0 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15 17.8 1959 6.9 0.2 -1.7 18.0 1989 -5.3 -1.9 -18.4 18.0 1947 3.9 -3.6 -3.7 18.4 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 19.0 1956 8.5 4.5 -3.2 In terms of actually matching the SOI in the three month period, I think this is much closer - Top SOI Match for March SOI Dec Jan Feb 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2004 -10.1 1.2 -29.5 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 7.8 -0.2 -10.4 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15.0 My hunch is March 1975 will end up pretty close for March 2019, they're linked in the solar cycle too (1975 + 11*4). The Dec/Jan and Feb patterns are pretty close, and early March 1975 also looks close to what is forecast for temps nationally. It's not a bad MJO match either. La Nina...but it had coupling problems (big -SOI showed up), and it was a La Nina far warmer than 1973-74 in Nino 3.4 year/year. I do it expect at least some areas of the US to be warmer than March 1975, but the "look" seems about right.

On the AMO site, the raw data shows 2018 had a colder AMO by raw SSTs than over 20 years, including several in the prior warm cycle peak in the 1950s/early 1960s. NDJ in particular looks like it is colder than around 30 years since 1856 on the data, including 1878. So I don't really buy the idea that the AMO isn't capable of cooling dramatically. If you use 1981-2010 as the baseline, the oceans are around +0.35C right now on Tropical Tidbits, but we're only +0.1 in the AMO zone against that time period and its been a long time since the Atlantic was lagging the other oceans for warmth. Recent similar Atlantic raw temperatures (2011, 2009, 2000, etc) were when the oceans were 0.1C or more cooler than now. The annual AMO warming comes out to +0.2C every 70 years on the ESRL raw data site, so being below a lot of years in the 1950s in actual temps, not de-trended values does support a flip coming relatively soon. We've been colder than plenty of months in the prior peak for a while now, its just whether it will last or not - bold months are warmer in the prior AMO cycle, when it was colder globally. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data 1954 19.407 18.831 18.814 19.123 20.073 21.321 22.406 23.164 23.058 22.247 21.157 20.031 1955 19.259 18.778 18.758 19.235 20.182 21.418 22.722 23.355 23.275 22.561 21.573 20.342 1956 19.372 18.835 18.733 19.205 19.951 20.963 22.366 23.085 22.986 22.242 21.103 20.107 1957 19.107 18.637 18.702 19.071 19.890 21.218 22.499 23.388 23.298 22.437 21.276 20.170 1958 19.239 18.935 19.068 19.493 20.215 21.454 22.626 23.350 23.292 22.442 21.380 20.313 1959 19.293 18.863 18.700 19.146 20.024 21.176 22.433 23.203 23.208 22.405 21.248 20.206 1960 19.372 18.968 18.818 19.249 20.322 21.557 22.738 23.529 23.296 22.591 21.450 20.236 1961 19.259 18.835 18.881 19.382 20.215 21.273 22.451 23.232 23.091 22.327 21.269 20.314 1962 19.350 18.908 18.900 19.245 20.047 21.172 22.464 23.136 23.095 22.366 21.251 20.294 1963 19.361 18.925 18.871 19.264 19.942 21.199 22.439 23.128 22.891 22.231 21.150 20.046 2018 19.529 18.974 19.022 19.376 20.179 21.387 22.645 23.467 23.408 22.599 21.240 20.199 2019 19.344 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990

I've looked at trends in the Southwest by month, generally for precipitation: Jan/Aug - flat May/June - drier All others - wetter - especially July and December. March was incredibly wet 1998-2007, which is why I find it so bizarre that it has been so dry since, but the long-term trend is still up even in March. Long-term trends for snow are actually up a bit for most sites in New Mexico, its just a bit warmer, so it tends to melt faster. Also, there is some emerging research that wind is eating a lot of the snow pack too, and that hurts probably more than temperatures. For instance 2016-17 was pretty warm, especially for lows, but also extremely wet, and the mountains did very well...until Spring when it just melted off fast. The ranges here were around 200% of normal at the end of January. Red River, 8,600 feet above sea level has reliable, same site snow records for 1906-2014, and the trend in snowfall is up from around 125 inches to around 140 inches from what I remember. The Red River ski resort has a base in town and they've reported 133 inches through 2/26, the long term average (1906-2014, Sept-Jun) is around 135.

On the ESRL site, it does look like the AMO values are lowest since 2000-01 for the NDJ period. I generally think of the AMO as +/-, but you have "rising/falling' w/in each positive/negative cycle before a brief flat plateau at the top/bottom of the overall 60-70 year cycle. I think we're in the falling part of the warm cycle now. 1975-2005, rising, 2006-2012, plateau, 2013-falling? Sea Ice extent being relatively high in the Arctic despite incredible warmth in Alaska is kind of consistent with the colder AMO, given how low the extent got in Sept 2018. A bottom in 1974 and then again in 2043 would be consistent with the idea of a 70 year AMO cycle. 1994 -0.295 -0.308 -0.278 -0.199 -0.206 -0.221 -0.231 -0.235 -0.152 -0.059 -0.019 -0.090 1995 -0.062 -0.040 0.016 0.076 0.271 0.364 0.314 0.183 0.054 0.102 0.127 0.042 1996 -0.010 -0.032 -0.058 0.009 -0.065 -0.124 -0.105 -0.009 -0.002 -0.145 -0.174 -0.155 1997 -0.092 -0.036 0.005 0.007 0.039 0.008 0.060 0.015 0.109 0.150 0.051 0.131 1998 0.130 0.291 0.321 0.291 0.383 0.489 0.487 0.512 0.412 0.381 0.317 0.279 1999 0.050 0.057 0.069 0.052 0.162 0.180 0.198 0.306 0.184 0.017 -0.049 0.014 2000 -0.084 -0.039 0.103 0.042 0.105 -0.018 0.072 0.102 0.101 -0.040 -0.053 -0.127 2001 -0.128 -0.027 0.014 -0.012 -0.009 0.198 0.135 0.177 0.286 0.251 0.156 0.213 2002 0.181 0.165 0.144 0.027 -0.049 -0.117 -0.066 0.106 0.079 0.111 0.019 0.004 2003 0.050 -0.013 0.112 0.079 0.151 0.205 0.276 0.415 0.451 0.426 0.223 0.224 2004 0.210 0.209 0.158 0.108 0.006 0.177 0.227 0.316 0.240 0.242 0.221 0.187 2005 0.110 0.125 0.284 0.292 0.293 0.327 0.446 0.440 0.418 0.238 0.140 0.216 2006 0.123 0.075 0.060 0.197 0.308 0.333 0.374 0.401 0.364 0.334 0.289 0.171 2007 0.171 0.217 0.127 0.159 0.111 0.088 0.129 0.055 0.098 0.158 0.176 0.111 2008 0.030 0.128 0.158 0.043 0.172 0.256 0.206 0.175 0.198 0.102 0.001 0.019 2009 -0.059 -0.164 -0.160 -0.131 -0.061 0.121 0.228 0.153 0.057 0.164 0.069 0.082 2010 0.040 0.177 0.287 0.426 0.459 0.447 0.450 0.525 0.449 0.324 0.235 0.208 2011 0.144 0.108 0.055 0.092 0.152 0.178 0.092 0.147 0.144 0.063 -0.071 -0.045 2012 -0.065 0.004 0.026 0.080 0.164 0.300 0.375 0.431 0.448 0.329 0.165 0.141 2013 0.128 0.115 0.158 0.136 0.101 0.046 0.190 0.194 0.255 0.347 0.128 0.036 2014 -0.062 -0.043 -0.081 -0.094 -0.002 0.062 0.221 0.335 0.310 0.292 0.065 0.058 2015 -0.008 -0.004 -0.129 -0.072 0.044 0.029 0.132 0.178 0.300 0.324 0.186 0.229 2016 0.230 0.155 0.188 0.177 0.344 0.409 0.431 0.456 0.457 0.380 0.390 0.335 2017 0.225 0.226 0.167 0.282 0.314 0.308 0.302 0.309 0.350 0.433 0.351 0.364 2018 0.172 0.062 0.131 0.063 -0.001 -0.011 0.017 0.112 0.162 0.143 -0.121 -0.060 2019 -0.015

My pure analogs had 3-5F below average for March in North Texas. I didn't buy it...so I warmed it up 2F. But maybe I should have given what may happen next week. For Albuquerque, every El Nino back to 1931 that has achieved six days with accumulating snow has had a 7th. We had day six on Friday. If the rule holds, it means snow in March or April since we're done with snow in February.

This is what I mean by the cold AMO - that ring has not been present for that long in ages. It looks like the early/late year of the -AMO cycle, like early 1960s or late 1980s.

Full year of a cold AMO?

The ice extent on the Atlantic side must be pretty high given the warmth in Alaska? Since the late February extent numbers are above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 2006 and 2005. If that's the case it does kind of make sense, the AMO has been pretty cold recently.

March still looks promising for the El Nino given rising subsurface heat, so we should easily clear five trimesters above +0.5C in Nino 3.4. https://imgur.com/copmt4o Weekly data is centered, i.e. 2/20 is through 2/23. The 12-week average for Nino 3.4 is 27.3C, and CPC uses a DJF average of 26.58C for Nino 3.4. For Dec/Jan, CPC reported slightly different monthly numbers 27.49C (Dec), 27.25C (Jan). February is likely 27.3C (+/-0.15C) on the monthly data. February base is 26.66C according to CPC, so that's still El Nino territory, around +0.65C. ONI will be around +0.7C for DJF. Nino 4 near record territory for Feb warmth is strongly correlated to wetness in the Plains/SW in March, it didn't work in 2016 (snowed near Guadalajara), but we're not quite that warm, it's closer to 2010, 2005, 2003, 2015, 1958, 1995, 1998, etc. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0

This is a pretty interesting winter overall for the US. Increasingly suspicious that the linkage between solar activity and blocking is real, I think there is a better case for solar activity controlling the MJO indirectly. I can't find a winter since 1974 where the MJO has gotten "stuck" as many times as it has this year in high solar activity years. My Spring analogs actually had Texas pretty cold in March - but there are fairly strong correlations between low-solar activity and warmth in the SE 1/3 of the US. Bit of a dry signal for the SW US too. The blend I posted earlier is going to be dead on again locally for February (we're at 49.8F and will finish around 51F in February), and it has been close each month since October. If it has any similar skill at all in March it should be pretty cold in the Southwest in March. At this point I'm curious to see when it breaks, because it will at some point.

To be honest, the AMO and PDO have both been negative at times this winter. Looking familiar for Colorado? AMO was negative in both Nov-Dec, PDO was neutral overall for 2018. We seem to be in a blend of the left two images in some ways.

It is interesting looking at the flukiness of the winter specific to Boston. This is the raw blend of my analogs for East Coast sites for snow 10/1-2/23. I probably did err in how I drew the snowfall anomalies, but I'd say the blend itself is higher than a C nationally, but I had to guess on how to draw it, I can't manually look up 100s of snow totals or automatically combine the years like with temperatures. The raw blend is actually pretty strong for Virginia and Maine too from my quick spot checks, which someone mentioned as misses. Portland - 1953 - 36.7 1976 - 67.5 1986 - 60.7 1994 - 62.6 1994 - 62.6 2006 - 25.7 Blend: 52.6 inches Observed: 50.1 inches Boston - 1953 - 27.4 1976 - 47.3 1986 - 34.9 1994 - 12.9 1994 - 12.9 2006 - 4.8 Blend: 23.4 Observed: 10.5 inches NYC - 1953 - 15.4 1976 - 23.9 1986 - 21.2 1994 - 11.3 1994 - 11.3 2006 - 4.6 Blend: 14.6 Observed: 10.0 Philly - 1953 - 22.3 1976 - 18.7 1986 - 25.7 1994 - 9.6 1994 - 9.6 2006 - 7.2 Blend: 15.5 Observed: 13.1 DC - 1953 - 18.0 1976 - 11.1 1986 - 31.1 1994 - 9.7 1994 - 9.7 2006 - 4.3 Blend - 14.0 Observed - 16.6 Richmond - 1953 - 14.8 1976 - 13.8 1986 - 21.1 1994 - 3.1 1994 - 3.1 2006 - 0.3 Blend: 9.3 Observed: 13.1 Roanoke - 1953 - 10.7 1976 - 19.2 1986 - 39.5 1994 - 10.5 1994 - 10.5 2006 - 3.4 Blend: 15.6 Observed: 19.5

Nino 1.2 was the coldest it had been since 1985 in February (25.13C). The March temperature pattern largely reflected that, with the NW somewhat offset by the very -SOI in February which is a strong indicator for March in Washington. We'll see what the weeklies show for the next two weeks, but jumping up to 26.0-26.5C in February seems like a pretty safe bet to warm up the areas above the black line, especially the NW and Lakes. Worth noting that 2011-12 had a 20 point SOI drop from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012, and similar Nino 1.2 readings in Feb 2019 (26.5C). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9

This is pretty rough, but this is essentially how I score my overall seasonal forecasts for highs - the red areas I consider big misses on my part. I should mention: When I say I have regressions that are pretty powerful - they are. But for the season. The regression stuff doesn't really work for individual months. I try to get the month with different methods. The red area in the North may be a bit deeper to the SW, I have to the look. Billings is the worst spot I've found on the high blend. DJF High (F) Verification (12/1-2/22) 1953 1976 1986 1994 1994 2006 Mean Actual Error Score Atlanta 55.7 46.7 52.4 55.9 55.9 56.3 53.8 56.9 3.1 65.0 Albuquerque 50.4 47.7 46.7 53.4 53.4 45.6 49.5 47.6 -1.9 85.0 Amarillo 55.1 50.6 48.6 54.8 54.8 46.7 51.8 54.3 2.5 75.0 Billings 39.5 38.3 43.5 41.3 41.3 36.5 40.1 33.4 -6.7 35.0 Bismarck 28.7 22.4 34.2 24.2 24.2 27.5 26.9 22.4 -4.5 55.0 Boston 41.2 33.9 38.1 41.4 41.4 40.5 39.4 41.5 2.1 75.0 Des Moines 38.8 30.5 38.3 33.9 33.9 34.2 34.9 32.6 -2.3 75.0 Denver 50.7 49.2 45.8 49.1 49.1 37.4 46.9 44.2 -2.7 75.0 Detroit 37.3 26.8 34.8 36.5 36.5 35.4 34.6 36.1 1.6 85.0 Evansville 47.1 35.4 42.5 45.1 45.1 44.1 43.2 45.1 1.9 85.0 Elkins 43.7 33.7 40.5 43.0 43.0 41.3 40.9 43.8 2.9 75.0 El Paso 60.0 58.5 57.4 62.4 62.4 56.8 59.6 59.3 -0.3 100.0 Jacksonville 67.8 59.4 64.5 65.4 65.4 68.2 65.1 69.3 4.2 55.0 Lafayette 65.4 59.3 60.5 64.0 64.0 62.0 62.5 65.9 3.4 65.0 Philadelphia 45.3 34.3 41.5 45.1 45.1 44.3 42.6 44.1 1.5 85.0 Reno 49.8 50.7 48.7 49.2 49.2 48.0 49.3 46.3 -3.0 75.0 Salt Lake City 41.0 41.3 38.8 44.0 44.0 38.1 41.2 38.1 -3.1 65.0 San Diego 67.5 70.4 66.1 64.8 64.8 64.3 66.3 65.4 -0.9 95.0 Seattle 45.2 49.8 48.3 49.8 49.8 46.1 48.2 47.6 -0.6 95.0 St. Louis 47.3 34.8 42.2 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.0 42.8 0.8 95.0 Topeka 46.1 38.5 43.1 43.0 43.0 42.3 42.7 41.4 -1.3 85.0 Selected Cities Absolute Average Error 2.4 75.0

I agree, but we haven't as much snow as those years. 1972-73 finished with 37.4" here, 2006-07 was 27"+ and 1997-98 was higher too by now. When I went with low snow on the NE, I based it on the analogs I used for snow patterns - the heavy snow in the NE (Nov) and NW (Feb) for instance showed up in the analogs. My analogs actually did have Nino 3.4 as a 27.4C El Nino for Dec-Feb, which looks pretty close, it's actually much easier to figure stuff out that stuff. November 1953 is the only low solar El Nino with big snows in the coastal NE, and it turned warm in February in 1954. And then went with this - So far...this is what we have. I'd give myself an B for Dec-Jan nationally. My snow map looks pretty good to me so far, so I did something right. February is flipped for temps from what I expected but it is helping with the precip aspect.

Albuquerque is up to 9.5 inches of snow through 2/23 - that's the Oct-May average, so above average through 2/23. Looking back at October 2018, the MJO went through phases 1-2-3 from Oct 1 to Oct 16, before moving into the dead zone. The MJO is forecast to move through phases 1-2-3 in from 2/25 to 3/10 on the European. In October, huge blobs of tropical moisture came into the SW throughout the month. Will be interesting to see if that happens - for NM, the best precipitation was a week after the move from phase 3 to null, which would be around 3/17 roughly if the MJO timing is right.

SOI is near -16 through 2/23. With only 5 days left in February, it's pretty to safe to assume it will be below -10 in February. The SOI would have to be +12 the rest of the February just to get to -10.7. I've been toying around with the SOI transitions, and if we really do end up at -12, -14, -16, -18 for February, you have to respect that in the data. But I don't think its correct to ignore the +9 in December either, given it has popped up the SE heat as you'd expect in February via correlations (several days near 90F in Florida already). Something like this may be appropriate for March. SOI Dec Jan Feb 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2004 -10.1 1.2 -29.5 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 7.8 -0.2 -10.4 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15.7 Statistically, when October is wetter than September in the SW, March tends to be less dry (p<0.05). The effect is strongest in preventing exceptionally dry Marches in Albuquerque as we've never had a precipitation free March in a year when October was wetter than September, in 36 tries, while it is relatively common if September is wetter than October. Since 2006, only 2008, 2009 and 2011 have had a wetter October than September in New Mexico, so will be interesting to see what happens. No wet Marches for most of NM/AZ outside the far north since 2007. If you guys are in need of a snow fix, the local ski resorts have 40-90 inch bases now. Most of the mountains in the SW have already passed their annual snow totals, and March/April can be very good months.

We've had about 3.5 inches in Albuquerque at the airport as of 8 pm. The NW areas of NM, say Chama, and also SW Colorado, around Durango have been getting a lot of snow. It's the "SOI Calvary" for that zone - the area of the US with the worst drought conditions long term. Timing of the storm today/yesterday that brought record daily snow to Flagstaff, snow to LA, and good snows to NM is consistent with the 15 pt SOI drop from 2/10 to 2/12. A storm will show up over the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude around 9/10 times from what I've seen researching the drops of that magnitude over the last 30 years. I-40 was shut down by the NM/AZ border earlier today. I kept telling people at work it would snow. No one bought it since it was 55F at 2:30 pm...but of course we had three inches of snow on the ground by 7:30 pm. Storms tend to over-perform in New Mexico from 2/15-4/15 for snow if they have sufficient moisture. The SOI drop from -30 to -43 on 2/17 to 2/19 should culminate in some kind of storm for the SW around 3/1 if the MJO going into phase two doesn't interfere destructively.

The problem with using upper air patterns too heavily is everyone looks for canonical ENSO patterns to develop, instead of looking at what is actually happening on the ground. My interest is in getting the seasonal totals correct through math, data mining and statistics. The upper air patterns can be ideal for a season and you can still have weather completely different from what you expect. It's particularly difficult in the West, since the upper air patterns can be a match but the cold air or warm air may or may not get over the mountains. That's why long range forecasts do so much better in the East than in the West. Anyway, I came in to post that with the snow today, pending the official numbers Albuquerque is probably at or very near average seasonal snowfall totals. In El Nino years, that is strongly negatively correlated with heavy snowfall in the NE coastal plain. Best El Ninos for snow out here include years like 1972, 1997, 2006 which are lousy in the NE.