raindancewx

I agree, but we haven't as much snow as those years. 1972-73 finished with 37.4" here, 2006-07 was 27"+ and 1997-98 was higher too by now. When I went with low snow on the NE, I based it on the analogs I used for snow patterns - the heavy snow in the NE (Nov) and NW (Feb) for instance showed up in the analogs. My analogs actually did have Nino 3.4 as a 27.4C El Nino for Dec-Feb, which looks pretty close, it's actually much easier to figure stuff out that stuff. November 1953 is the only low solar El Nino with big snows in the coastal NE, and it turned warm in February in 1954. And then went with this - So far...this is what we have. I'd give myself an B for Dec-Jan nationally. My snow map looks pretty good to me so far, so I did something right. February is flipped for temps from what I expected but it is helping with the precip aspect.

Albuquerque is up to 9.5 inches of snow through 2/23 - that's the Oct-May average, so above average through 2/23. Looking back at October 2018, the MJO went through phases 1-2-3 from Oct 1 to Oct 16, before moving into the dead zone. The MJO is forecast to move through phases 1-2-3 in from 2/25 to 3/10 on the European. In October, huge blobs of tropical moisture came into the SW throughout the month. Will be interesting to see if that happens - for NM, the best precipitation was a week after the move from phase 3 to null, which would be around 3/17 roughly if the MJO timing is right.

SOI is near -16 through 2/23. With only 5 days left in February, it's pretty to safe to assume it will be below -10 in February. The SOI would have to be +12 the rest of the February just to get to -10.7. I've been toying around with the SOI transitions, and if we really do end up at -12, -14, -16, -18 for February, you have to respect that in the data. But I don't think its correct to ignore the +9 in December either, given it has popped up the SE heat as you'd expect in February via correlations (several days near 90F in Florida already). Something like this may be appropriate for March. SOI Dec Jan Feb 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2004 -10.1 1.2 -29.5 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 7.8 -0.2 -10.4 2018 9.1 -2.1 -15.7 Statistically, when October is wetter than September in the SW, March tends to be less dry (p<0.05). The effect is strongest in preventing exceptionally dry Marches in Albuquerque as we've never had a precipitation free March in a year when October was wetter than September, in 36 tries, while it is relatively common if September is wetter than October. Since 2006, only 2008, 2009 and 2011 have had a wetter October than September in New Mexico, so will be interesting to see what happens. No wet Marches for most of NM/AZ outside the far north since 2007. If you guys are in need of a snow fix, the local ski resorts have 40-90 inch bases now. Most of the mountains in the SW have already passed their annual snow totals, and March/April can be very good months.

We've had about 3.5 inches in Albuquerque at the airport as of 8 pm. The NW areas of NM, say Chama, and also SW Colorado, around Durango have been getting a lot of snow. It's the "SOI Calvary" for that zone - the area of the US with the worst drought conditions long term. Timing of the storm today/yesterday that brought record daily snow to Flagstaff, snow to LA, and good snows to NM is consistent with the 15 pt SOI drop from 2/10 to 2/12. A storm will show up over the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude around 9/10 times from what I've seen researching the drops of that magnitude over the last 30 years. I-40 was shut down by the NM/AZ border earlier today. I kept telling people at work it would snow. No one bought it since it was 55F at 2:30 pm...but of course we had three inches of snow on the ground by 7:30 pm. Storms tend to over-perform in New Mexico from 2/15-4/15 for snow if they have sufficient moisture. The SOI drop from -30 to -43 on 2/17 to 2/19 should culminate in some kind of storm for the SW around 3/1 if the MJO going into phase two doesn't interfere destructively.

The problem with using upper air patterns too heavily is everyone looks for canonical ENSO patterns to develop, instead of looking at what is actually happening on the ground. My interest is in getting the seasonal totals correct through math, data mining and statistics. The upper air patterns can be ideal for a season and you can still have weather completely different from what you expect. It's particularly difficult in the West, since the upper air patterns can be a match but the cold air or warm air may or may not get over the mountains. That's why long range forecasts do so much better in the East than in the West. Anyway, I came in to post that with the snow today, pending the official numbers Albuquerque is probably at or very near average seasonal snowfall totals. In El Nino years, that is strongly negatively correlated with heavy snowfall in the NE coastal plain. Best El Ninos for snow out here include years like 1972, 1997, 2006 which are lousy in the NE.

Two good snow events this week. The snow today I think saved my forecast for a wet winter in Albuquerque and New Mexico - at least 0.30 inches of precipitation, which brings the winter to above average. Highs will finish below average as forecast too.

Through 2/22 the February SOI is down to near -16, the threshold our Kangaroo Buddies consider Strong El Nino territory. Another big Kelvin Wave is heading east and "up" just in time for March.

I'm still researching it, but in periods of low solar activity, it does seem like bigger snow events are much rarer in certain areas of the US, regardless of ENSO, teleconnections, etc. Boston and Albuquerque don't have much in common climate-wise, (really...anything in common), but in El Nino Marches in both cities there is a pretty direct, and strong linear correlation to heavier snowfall if solar activity is high. I'd imagine the same is true in other places. Expecting big snow in Denver in the core of winter is a fairly big ask anyway, since March and November are better months. If you graph long-term trends in the US, March is warming fairly quickly in the West, and low solar activity favors less precipitation in the Southwest. On top of that, most of New Mexico and Arizona haven't had a wet March in over a decade and some of that prevents heavy snowfall from big storms from making it up the Front Range. So part of the issue is the top snowfall month in Denver has had a lot of things working against it. My temperature and precipitation patterns since 7/1 are objectively very strong matches to years like 1998-99, 1974-75, and 2004-05, 1957-58, 1941-42, which all featured major storms and precipitation in the SW, all of which had incredible March precipitation in the SW. The SOI is down to -15.7 for February too. At this point I think you have to look seriously at 1962, 1970, 1970, 1970, 2012 as the blend for March nationally - it snowed in LA in 1962 like this year, and 1961 and 1969 had major landfall hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. Lots of huge snowfalls in MN and that area in early 1962. As a blend, those years take you from essentially a La Nina SOI to an El Nino SOI from Dec to Feb. If the SOI finishes at -15, I'd throw in 2004 or 1982 too, to lower the February SOI to the observed value.

How many of you had snow in Las Vegas and Los Angeles this winter? People are going nuts about the snow in LA on social media.

People in LA are freaking out about some "snow" today.

My main misses for the winter will be the South and Northern Plains for temps. I think Bismarck was +7 in December but will finish -2 or -3 for the winter which is pretty remarkable. I've been pretty happy with my snow map which had the Plains and Rockies doing very well, and also upstate NY. I don't actually care about upper air patterns too much - but this was my preliminary look at my outlook for highs a few days ago. I have some theories on why the SOI went so positive in December that I'll be looking for in future El Ninos. DJF High (F) Verification (12/1-2/16) 1953 1976 1986 1994 1994 2006 Mean Actual Error Atlanta 55.4 45.9 53.0 55.7 55.7 56.1 53.6 56.9 3.3 Albuquerque 49.8 46.4 47.2 52.5 52.5 44.9 48.9 47.9 -1.0 Amarillo 54.4 49.1 49.3 53.7 53.7 45.2 50.9 55.0 4.1 Billings 38.6 37.1 43.4 39.7 39.7 35.8 39.1 34.6 -4.5 Bismarck 27.0 21.1 34.2 22.8 22.8 26.7 25.8 23.1 -2.7 Boston 40.4 33.9 37.9 41.3 41.3 40.7 39.3 41.8 2.6 Denver 50.2 48.3 46.3 47.9 47.9 36.9 46.3 45.6 -0.6 El Paso 59.4 57.4 57.9 61.9 61.9 56.2 59.1 59.3 0.2 Jacksonville 67.3 59.2 65.1 65.4 65.4 68.2 65.1 68.4 3.3 Philadelphia 44.3 34.1 41.4 44.8 44.8 44.6 42.3 44.2 1.9 San Diego 67.1 70.6 66.1 64.1 64.1 64.3 66.1 65.9 -0.1 Seattle 44.9 49.1 48.4 49.3 49.3 45.9 47.8 48.0 0.2 St. Louis 46.6 33.5 42.1 41.3 41.3 42.0 41.1 43.2 2.1

Looking at highs in Boston for 12/1-2/18, it looks like 1994-95 is within 0.2F for 90% of the winter, so I'm fairly happy with that as the analog I double weighted for this winter. It is within 0.1F for average temperature.

This is just my hunch, but I think the European idea that the MJO wave dies in phase 3 may be right. The subsurface analogs (assuming 100-180W comes in around +1.0 in February as it looks right now) implies the MJO gets to phases 7/8/1 in March, but the models have it starting in 2/3. The SOI analogs look a lot closer to the models and current pattern, but that would change if the wave dies in phase 3 and then re-emerges in 6 later in the month. Basically, I think both of these methods below will have some merit in March, but the one on the right is first and may persist longer. The CFS kind of looks like it is a blend of the two ideas. Will be interesting to see what it has in a few days, as it does have some skill late in the month. Of course this may all have to change if the SOI finishes -15 or something or if the subsurface comes in much warmer in February.

The February SOI has actually been at least slightly below 0 each year since 2013. The SOI is going to be kind of wild the next few days, there is a Typhoon east of Australia that should briefly lower pressures by Darwin while Tahiti sees a rise. The SOI still looks negative for 4-5 of the next 7 days on the ECMWF but it is going to pop up briefly. If/when it does, and then it pops down, there should be some kind of reaction in the pattern globally. The CFS should enter its brief period of usefulness around 2/25 in forecasting March. Will be curious to see what it says. If the SOI finishes below -12 in February will probably need to change the blend from above.

Two hour delay at work today since it is snowing and 21F, so can post this. SOI was was -43.6 for 2/19, a huge value. Subsurface heat for February is still increasing in the 100W-180W zone. I think maybe +1.0 is a good estimate for February now.

I never really expected Boston to finish under 10" - my analogs had 35" for Boston and I assumed that was a bit high. My contention was always that 45"+ was unlikely given the ENSO/solar combo. Boston was at 8.2" as of 4 pm today on the Boston NWS site, with only T since. Exactly one year on record has had over 37" from 2/19-5/31, so the 45"+ is unlikely thing still looks pretty solid. Since 1891-82, the 8.2" (maybe a touch more after 4 pm today) through 2/18 is still 6th lowest on record. Most snow on record for 2/19-5/31 since 1892 is 53.0" in 1993. For 2/19-5/31, 90% of years have under 25 inches of snow in Boston.

I'm proud of the local NWS - they are finally acknowledging that elevation matters within the city for snow in a winter storm warning. I think these totals are too high though. I'm at 5,350 feet at my house, so I'd expect just about four inches of snow. NMZ507-519-190700- /O.UPG.KABQ.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KABQ.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190220T0000Z/ West Central Highlands- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- 445 PM MST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, except 4 to 8 inches at elevations above 5400 feet and north of I-40. East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts around 45 mph below canyons opening into the middle Rio Grande Valley during the evening. * WHERE...West Central Highlands and Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area and Grants. * WHEN...After occasional snow showers this evening, snow will increase in coverage and intensity after midnight as the east canyon winds die down. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will occur late tonight through Tuesday morning, then periods of light to moderate snow Tuesday afternoon. Accumulating snow will end by late afternoon, though some light snow may linger into the evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be difficult due to snowpacked and icy roads and reduced visibility. Wind chill temperatures in the single digits and teens will occur late tonight and Tuesday morning.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 As Chuck's method implied, the subsurface was showing warmth below Nino 3/3.4. That warmth has been slowly returning to the surface, so the anomalies are getting more positive, even accounting for the warming in Nino 3/3.4 that happens in February. The weekly ENSO update for Summer isn't out because it is a federal holiday. @Great Snow 1717 I have some ideas for June but not beyond that. We tend to have (for us) unusual cold/wetness in June in the SW somewhat more frequently after a dry Nov-Jan. A strong SW US Monsoon is weakly correlated to the +PDO, low Nov-Apr precipitation prior to Summer, and low solar activity. The PDO and Nov-Apr precip are pretty neutral so I don't see a particularly wet or dry Summer here, but the sun is still favorable.

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 18 Feb 2019 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 -6.21 0.65 17 Feb 2019 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 -4.72 1.12 16 Feb 2019 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 -3.35 1.37 15 Feb 2019 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 -2.47 1.44 14 Feb 2019 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 -2.26 1.32 13 Feb 2019 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 -1.77 1.38 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

I got a lot of crap from people in the East in Oct/Nov for saying 1994-95 was a decent analog for this winter but East of the Rockies it's been remarkably close. I was spot checking my analogs for winter against observations today, for 78/90 days of winter that are in the books. Outside of Montana, the Dakotas and the SE, I'd say this blend will probably end up within 2F of reality in most parts of the US. I definitely did not have February as warm as it has been in the South, the +5 to +15 readings are killing me there. The super cold in the Plains this month hurts too - both are +SOI December driven from what I can see. DJF High (F) Verification (12/1-2/16) 1953 1976 1986 1994 1994 2006 Mean Actual Error Atlanta 55.4 45.9 53.0 55.7 55.7 56.1 53.6 56.9 3.3 Albuquerque 49.8 46.4 47.2 52.5 52.5 44.9 48.9 47.9 -1.0 Amarillo 54.4 49.1 49.3 53.7 53.7 45.2 50.9 55.0 4.1 Billings 38.6 37.1 43.4 39.7 39.7 35.8 39.1 34.6 -4.5 Bismarck 27.0 21.1 34.2 22.8 22.8 26.7 25.8 23.1 -2.7 Boston 40.4 33.9 37.9 41.3 41.3 40.7 39.3 41.8 2.6 Denver 50.2 48.3 46.3 47.9 47.9 36.9 46.3 45.6 -0.6 El Paso 59.4 57.4 57.9 61.9 61.9 56.2 59.1 59.3 0.2 Jacksonville 67.3 59.2 65.1 65.4 65.4 68.2 65.1 68.4 3.3 Philadelphia 44.3 34.1 41.4 44.8 44.8 44.6 42.3 44.2 1.9 San Diego 67.1 70.6 66.1 64.1 64.1 64.3 66.1 65.9 -0.1 Seattle 44.9 49.1 48.4 49.3 49.3 45.9 47.8 48.0 0.2 St. Louis 46.6 33.5 42.1 41.3 41.3 42.0 41.1 43.2 2.1

The SOI is down to near -11 in February and looks pretty negative for the next five days at least. It's actually very difficult to get an SOI blend historically that went +9, -2, -10 for Dec, Jan, Feb respectively. Simplest close blend I found was 1961-62, 1969-70 (x3), 2011-12. These SOI blends tend to work for temps. If February ends up at -20 or +5 somehow, will of course need to change it. https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ SOI Dec Jan Feb 1961 12.5 16.5 -5.2 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 8.3 -1.3 -8.1 2018 9.1 -2.1 -10.0

When I tried to re-create expected solar/ONI/ONI Prior conditions and match Fall highs (Oct/Nov) in Albuquerque, this was the only blend that worked. It's held up remarkably well since I started looking at it in early November. The math says solar, ONI, ONIp account for 70% of the variability in highs here in El Ninos. Will be interesting to see when/if this breaks going forward.

To me it's a bit too early to put out snow numbers for Albuquerque, really the Eastern half of NM, but this is what the local NWS has for the Mon-Tue storm. The Euro has two snow bands depicted, first one probably dies outside ABQ to the West, second makes it but faces the stout East wind...but the wind dies and it snows for like three hours, on and off. Question is whether that first band will make it. If it does, I think 2-5" is possible, otherwise, I'll probably go a coating to 2" for the city. Should be much clear tomorrow. These are potent little storms, so it should be cold enough for some kind of snow even in the city I think.

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. @andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies. The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.