raindancewx

This caught my attention earlier, as late March 1973, after the storm depicted, had incredible storms in the SW, including the all-time record March snowfall in Albuquerque - 14.2". 1973 1 -3.6 1973 2 -15.0 1973 3 -0.3 2019 1 -2.24 2019 2 -14.62 The SOI is around -7 in March 2019, but it does look like it will be negative some days but neutral to positive in others over the next ten days. Obviously, Jan-Feb SOI transition is pretty similar, and the storm above looks like the one this week.

Here is a list of what happened in years following a 27.4C El Nino in Dec-Feb (Nino 3.4), give or take +0.4C. For years prior to 1950, I correlate the 1950-2019 data when both are available and then "convert" the pre-1950 to what it would look like on the 1950- data. El N ONI ONI+ 1939 27.44 27.96 1941 27.38 25.31 1953 27.00 25.56 1963 27.36 25.69 1965 27.73 26.01 1968 27.54 26.92 1976 27.18 27.15 1977 27.15 26.49 1979 27.05 26.31 1986 27.76 27.34 1987 27.34 24.83 1990 27.02 28.40 1994 27.64 25.74 2002 27.50 26.94 2004 27.22 25.80 2006 27.29 24.98 2014 27.18 29.13 2018 27.38 There is something of a warm signal in the West for winters after El Ninos, with a bit of a cold signal in the Central Plains, South and NE. El Ninos after similar Nino 3.4 composites to this year (1940-41, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16. I'll add in 2003-04 too, close enough to an El Nino for this). La Nina after similar strength El Ninos (with 1966-67, close enough). Worth noting, unlike literally all the El Ninos which are high solar, these La Ninas are almost all low solar. You'll notice the composites are dry in both cases for the interior South, which is consistent with winters following El Ninos being dry in that zone (blue = negative correlation to heavy precip following high Nino 3.4 readings). California does pretty well either way.

I expect pictures from this event from this system. For this area of the country it's comparable in severity to the blizzard of 1993. NM alone had tornadoes, hail, heavy snow, heavy rain, record moisture and low pressure, plus winds gusting to 70-100 mph.

Derecho in TX too. This storm is probably important enough / powerful enough that it deserves some kind of name. I'm going with "Hurricane Kansas" until I see something better. It's not really just a blizzard, severe outbreak, flood, or wind storm, it's all that and more. I-25 was closed north of Wagon Mound today since the wind was knocking big trucks off the road. There were some 100 mph wind gusts in Southern NM earlier. Literally "more powerful than a locomotive". Snow-pack numbers should be up more tomorrow after the heavy snows today.

For large areas of the US, this may be somewhat akin to the Blizzard of 1993 when all is said and done. I don't know that I'll live to see another 970 mb low in Kansas.

Albuquerque is up to 0.50" as of 8 pm with this storm. Wettest March since 2007. My Spring Forecast had 0.75" for March, so that looks...not bad. At least for now. There were two big SOI crashes 3/8-3/10, and 3/9-3/11 that support some kind of big storm around 3/21 or 3/22 in the SW. We'll see I ended up going with these amounts for Mon/Tue/Weds in the city: Monday: 0.05"-0.40" - 0.21" actual Tuesday: 0.30"-0.70" - 0.29" actual through 8 pm. (Maybe a bit as snow very late) Wednesday: 0.05-0.40" - ?? (Maybe some as snow)

It's forecast to be a 972 mb low over Kansas on some model runs. Even in NM, we'll probably see wind gusts to 70-80 mph for a time. Lows of this magnitude are crazy with the topography of the West.

SE NM tornado. Hail reports too.

There is still time, but the moisture profile hasn't quite had its act together locally. Only 0.30" rain so far since 3/11 in Albuquerque as of 5:20 pm, despite record dew points and (maybe) record strength for this system. The mother of cold fronts with screaming West winds should be fun tomorrow, and I still think we'll go over to at least some snow mixing in in Albuquerque, or at least the elevated parts of the city. 0.30" is still the wettest March in Albuquerque since 2010, despite the long-term average being 0.50" in March. We've really had a terrible run of Marches in the SW for precipitation outside the northern parts of NM/AZ. The models, through Sunday Night were showing 1.00-1.40" generally for this storm, but have really backed down, to kind of a general 0.40-0.80" for much of NM outside the mountains and southern areas.

Local NWS has wind gusts up to 80 mph with the cold front for most of NM coming through later.

This storm has a real shot at being the strongest storm of all time in Kansas, by barometric pressure. Albuquerque is up to 0.19" today. As sad as it is, that's a top three day for March precipitation since 2007. The real rains (and snows) will be tomorrow as the cold front kicks out the record moisture profile.

The dewpoints are already pretty incredible even this far north in Albuquerque - up to 46/47F. Gotta be near record levels of moisture content for March if it isn't record setting. When we get heavy rain in Summer, it is typically with dew points around 50 and temps in the 70s-lows 90s. I'm still expecting most of New Mexico above 5,000 feet to go to snow at some point late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I'm expecting 50-60 mph winds even where I am as the cold front moves in, maybe some hail, and then we go to brick like snow in the low or mid 30s for an hour or two before the dry air emerges victorious over its desert kingdom once more. The NAM has a very powerful line of thunderstorms developing in Eastern New Mexico ahead of the cold front.

The GFS had a 972 MB low over Western Kansas on its last few runs. I'm expecting a conversion to snow at some point late Tuesday or Wednesday, but it probably would be under one inch, two at most. There probably will be a colder storm at some point for us, next shot may be around 3/20 - 3/22 given the big SOI drops lately.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 The MJO is pretty similar to October right now, which is when this event ramped up, before weakening, so some weakening after March wouldn't be too surprising. Heat content is all the way back to October levels though -

Who you gonna call? Drought busters.

I'll be looking for a big storm in about ten days given the recent SOI drop from 3/8 to 3/10. The models were hinting at the MJO winding back to phase 2/3 around that time earlier in the week, but it doesn't look too likely now. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Mar 2019 1010.20 1008.60 -12.02 -14.73 -3.25 9 Mar 2019 1011.85 1009.10 -6.51 -14.67 -3.11 8 Mar 2019 1013.00 1009.05 -0.77 -14.71 -3.07 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19 A big -SOI in March is a fairly strong cold signal for Texas. Warm for Washington state. Fairly strong dry signal for the Western Dakotas, and a wet signal for the mountains of Virginia. Last March the SOI was very positive, right now it is -4.6, and it looks volatile but primarily negative for the next week at least. With these maps, the lightest greens and lightest blues tend to get overwhelmed by other factors, but the darker shades usually "win" so to speak. May is actually very strongly correlated to March Nino 3.4 temps in the NW, its a very strong signal for warmth in Washington and in the NW generally. Less strong as a cold signal in May for other areas.

Snow pretty far south in the mountains, but not quite to El Paso - pretty impressive system for mid-March though. I'm actually think I have a shot at hail with some of the rain on Monday. This looks like a more wide spread outbreak than yesterday, based on storm strength and track mostly.

Euro has the El Nino remaining pretty strong into Summer and Fall now. Hardly any members go below El Nino territory. Most members are above +0.8C from now through Fall, each month.

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year. Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 Week Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 28JAN2015 24.8-0.3 26.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 04FEB2015 25.0-0.5 26.2 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 11FEB2015 25.1-0.8 26.6 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.0 0.9 18FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.7 0.3 27.3 0.5 29.0 1.0 25FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.8 0.1 27.5 0.6 29.3 1.2 04MAR2015 25.8-0.5 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 1987 weakened too, briefly. 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1987 3 28.27 27.14 1.13 1987 4 28.40 27.58 0.82 1987 5 28.56 27.68 0.88 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1976-77 definitely died for a bit - 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1977 3 27.48 27.04 0.44 1977 4 27.45 27.42 0.03 1977 5 27.72 27.51 0.22

I'd imagine you get smoked pretty hard in March Chinook for what its worth. My winter analogs had November and March as the top snow months for CO and UT (not really surprising), and the Spring analogs still favored March but the timing shifted to mid-March instead of early March. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs have included periods in March 1973, 1998, 2003, 2005, etc, recently as top matches - all pretty impressive snow periods for the high terrain of the SW, and often the areas east of the mountains too, from basically Cheyenne to Amarillo or even Roswell depending on the year. The 1974-75 cold season has been pretty close nationally to recent months, and you had some big storms then too. It's kind of crazy, but my precip pattern since July is a very close match to 1974-75 and 1998-99 - both La Nina with big Marches, but also 1941-42, 1957-58, 2004-05 - El Ninos after major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast - also with big Marches. So the "La Nina ish" interference that has shown up in winter, via the MJO / SOI behavior (+9.1 in Dec) doesn't seem to be interfering with March. The local NWS put this on Twitter. I did want to make one observation - the local radar is down in Albuquerque. They are upgrading it. So now casting with radar won't be possible for the tornadoes and snow conditions that develop where that radar provides best coverage.

The GFS, NAM, and Euro all have heavy precipitation in most of NM on 3/12 now, and we'll likely see a fair amount of severe weather with that event. Hail, tornadoes, snow, strong winds, and heavy rains all look pretty likely. I still think we'll find a way to go over to snow in the city, but the local NWS thinks the snow levels will only get down to 6,500 or so on Tuesday with the Pacific cold front. Of course, they had us only falling to 35F last night and it reached 30F this morning. My hunch is we end late Tuesday/early Wednesday as a heavy wet snow right around freezing down to 5,000 feet, at least in the northern part of the state, but we'll see. Snow level at 6,500 feet implies mid-30s at 5,000 typically.

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW. Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years) August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW. Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March. Mar Nino 3.4 2016 28.90 1983 28.66 1992 28.66 1998 28.62 1958 28.27 1987 28.27 1966 28.21 2010 28.18 2019 ??

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks. I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201810 -0.75 201811 -0.78 201812 -0.12 201901 -0.23 201902 -0.55

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.

The big time storm / severe outbreak that is depicted on the models is pretty consistent with the SOI crash on 3/1 to 3/3 - storms tend to show up in the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19