raindancewx

Coldest May for Albuquerque since 1980. The Canadian has a somewhat different look nationally for June than the CFS. It still has an El Nino in winter 2019-20, but it did trend weaker this run. Since it has another east-central / basin wide El Nino for 2019-20, the look disfavors the East for cold.

CPC final June outlook ended up pretty similar to my Summer forecast idea for June from a few weeks ago. Taos Powderhorn still has 63 inches of snow (11,000 feet up), so will be interesting to see if it lasts into late June or July if we verify with a cold wet June as CPC expects. May marked the 8th month in a row in Albuquerque with colder highs year over year, and seven of eight dropped by 4-10F, not small amounts. I can't find any Junes in the last 120 years that are more than 18F warmer than the preceding May, so can pretty definitively rule out a very hot June for this area of the world. Expecting June to come in with a high of around 90F - about average. That will feel pretty warm if it verifies since we haven't had temperatures above 85F here yet. Latest first 86F reading since 1931 here is June 9.

We'll see how 5/31 highs/lows end up, but if Albuquerque comes in colder on 5/31 than in 2015, which looks likely, since it was 88F in 2015, this is probably the coldest May for Albuquerque in like 40 years, or more, again depending on 5/31.

Heat off the SE US this Spring is about as anomalously warm as any patch of waters on the Earth.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 28.6C in Nino 3.4 for May? Some similar Mays would be 1957, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1998. Those are 28.6C +/-0.2C. 1983, 1992 and 2015 are the Mays that are above 28.8C since 1950 in Nino 3.4. Of the years, 1957 looks close to what I expect for June. 1982, 1993, 1997 is too cold, 1987 is too warm, and 1998 is just wrong looking. 1983, 1992 are also too cold. June 2015 doesn't look super far off. A blend of 1957, 1987, 1993, 2015 might be about right, if 1957/1993 are given extra weight. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

MJO looks like it will start June in phase 2 at fairly high amplitude. That's a bit similar to a blend of 1986, 1987, 2001 if you just go by the MJO amplitude and timing. Not super dis-similar as a blend to my analogs or to what the CFS shows. If you look at where the core of the wetness has been in May, you'd probably shift the blue area a bit north, like the CFS has it.

Still about 5.5 feet of snow at 11,000 feet at the Taos Powderhorn site. The Nov-Apr period wasn't as wet as 2016-17, so snow pack never got as high as that year at that site, but the melt off has been slower from peak snow pack to late May.

GFS actually still has quite a bit of snow for the high terrain of the west over the next ten days. It's not completely unheard of for snow to fall in June in New Mexico down to about 7,500 feet. Red River and Las Vegas are both populated and have had snows in June. Yesterday was actually the latest I've seen the Sandias covered in snow since I've lived in Albuquerque.

Severe weather outbreaks this month seem at least partially tied to the big SOI drops, which tend to put big time storms in the SW in 10 days. The big SOI drop 4/10-4/11 correspond well to the storm today. Snowed in Gallup and Grants today in NM, down to 5,000-6,000 feet, which is pretty rare in late May. A lot of areas have seen eight months in a row of measurable snow at fairly low elevations here. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 May 2019 1013.32 1012.95 -8.87 -3.45 -5.56 19 May 2019 1014.04 1012.65 -1.05 -3.74 -5.94 18 May 2019 1014.49 1011.55 10.82 -4.29 -6.33 17 May 2019 1014.27 1010.80 14.88 -4.93 -6.78 16 May 2019 1013.74 1011.85 2.78 -5.79 -7.22 15 May 2019 1013.99 1012.80 -2.59 -6.12 -7.41 14 May 2019 1013.40 1013.15 -9.79 -6.17 -7.60 13 May 2019 1013.23 1013.55 -14.15 -6.35 -7.77 12 May 2019 1013.29 1014.60 -21.74 -6.81 -7.87 11 May 2019 1013.09 1014.50 -22.50 -6.88 -7.84 10 May 2019 1012.54 1011.65 -4.88 -6.71 -7.68 9 May 2019 1011.36 1010.75 -7.03 -6.55 -7.65 8 May 2019 1010.13 1010.55 -14.92 -5.75 -7.69 7 May 2019 1010.34 1010.60 -13.69 -4.44 -7.61 6 May 2019 1011.67 1010.80 -5.04 -3.60 -7.44 5 May 2019 1012.81 1011.25 0.25 -2.97 -7.38 4 May 2019 1013.24 1011.65 0.48 -2.20 -7.39 3 May 2019 1013.43 1011.90 0.02 -1.64 -7.39 2 May 2019 1013.61 1010.55 11.74 -1.32 -7.44 1 May 2019 1012.41 1009.70 9.06 -1.99 -7.49 Near Gallup, NM....May 20th.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 Colder water is surfacing in the Eastern zones. Nino 3.4 still in El Nino territory.

Been a long time since I can remember that much cold water off the coast of Western Mexico. If the PDO is warm in Mar-Aug (and it looks like it will be), with Nino 1.2 near normal that has some interesting implications for next year. The PDO was kind of a mess for the entire Oct-Mar period.

Local weather office is warming about high run off on the Rio Grande into June for the Rio Grande Valley in New Mexico, highest since 2005. More snow coming this week, with rains too. Doesn't look like Albuquerque will hit 90F for at least another week. Last year first 90F was on 5/8, this year, at least two weeks later. Late May is typically when the first 90F happens - will be interesting to see if we can make it into June without reaching 90F. The Taos Powderhorn site at 11,000 feet above sea level is still reporting 67 inches of snow on May 18th, with more coming. Elephant Butte Water Level is up 40+ feet since last October, and the Rio Grande Compact restrictions are over with the lake well over 20% of capacity now. It may get to 30-35% by mid-June, up from 3% last October.

Subsurface now has more cold water than warm water it looks like. Last frame. Still looks like sometime in June or July we'll fall below +0.5C in Nino 3.4 at least for a few weeks and it may start in May. MAM will still be in El Nino territory, probably AMJ too, but MJJ? I lean toward neutral.

GFS is still showing a lot of snow through 5/24 for CO/NM and that is consistent with the big SOI drops of late which should put a storm in the SW.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO The PDO rapidly rose in April, but for Nov-Apr, the value was +0.51. My winter forecast from 10/12 assumed it would be +0.4. So my method of blend Mar-Aug PDO values with Nino 1.2 in Oct worked pretty well again. 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.052018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.522019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.662019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.462019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.372019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 Also, the Jamstec doesn't have a La Nina coming online anytime soon, but it does show a decay from El Nino to La Nina conditions in Summer. Has the US very hot the next three seasons, outside the SE in winter 2019-20.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 Some weakening at the surface as the cold pool expands. SOI/MJO may be favorable for a rebound soon, we'll see. I went with this for Summer - whether the El Nino lasts or not officially, the long-lead correlation between MAM in Nino 3.4 and July-Sept US temps are pretty strong in some areas. https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt

Looking at the forecast from last May, the European did pretty well, but the ENSO tended to come in on the low side of the plume. That's my guess for the next few months, given how April verified. I think there is one or two months mid-Summer with a +0.5C or so reading, and then maybe a rebound later on. If you look on Tropical Tidbits, there is definitely some thinning of the unusual warmth in Nino 3.4, at least for now. A low point around late May to June and then a gradual rebound in July is what I'd go with given this -

Lots of snow in northern New Mexico overnight. My high tomorrow is forecast to be about 53F in Albuquerque - literally 40F or so colder than last year. Angel Fire had 18" at the base, 24" at the summit.

I honestly don't have a good read on the Fall yet. I think there will be some weakening for the next 4-6 weeks in an ONI sense, and then the event may re-develop. A lot of back to back El Nino winters see a brief return to Neutral SSTs in Summer or early Fall, 1976-77 / 1977-78, or 1968-69 / 1969-70 for example. Others keep on trucking like 2014-15, 2015-16, 1986-87, 1987-88 without a break, although 1987-88 was cold pretty early on below the surface in the 100-180W zone ahead of the big 1988 La Nina. The six month AMO value for Nov-Apr did come in around +0.00, which is one of the reasons the country ended up so wet in recent months. Last time that happened was before May 2015, which (at the time) was the wettest month on record.

It's possible we aren't, but I know through Oct 2018, 50-months in a row had seen y/y declines, and in the past six months four months are up y/y by small amounts. I think it be about flat to erratically up for a bit. The last absolute minimum was right 2/2009 but sometimes the solar cycles are 10 years, 12, 9, or 13, and not 11. I've been pretty happy with the pattern overall, we're coming up on our 8th month in a row with y/y declines in monthly high temperatures, almost unheard of in the last 100 years. The mountains still look white when I drive in to work, as they have since October. Here is a look at Taos Powderhorn y/y - the giant spike was the "Kansas Hurricane" / Bomb Cyclone of mid-March. Generally it does tend to be warm or dry here when the mountains retain substantial snow into June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Cold water below the surface is expanding, and net subsurface heat continues to decline toward 0. Expecting ONI El Nino conditions (+0.5C v. long-term averages in Nino 3.4) to end by July.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 ONI update. Monthlies came in a bit lower than I thought, but still near the 28.6C on the weeklies. 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it. SST 3.4 Feb Mar Apr 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1987 27.88 28.27 28.39 1992 28.53 28.66 29.02 1993 27.16 27.67 28.41 2015 27.17 27.75 28.52 Mean 27.64 28.13 28.44 2019 27.48 28.13 28.46

The subsurface numbers for April came in at +0.65 - way day from prior months but still pretty positive. The six closest objective subsurface matches for Feb-Apr look almost identical to the Canadian temperature forecast in May, so that's likely a good forecast. I'll post my Summer forecast in here around 5/10, but I think 1992/1993 need to be included as analogs given that April 1992 is the warmest Nino 3.4 reading on record (29.0C), and 1993 had all the flooding in the Plains, as well as a similar strength storm to the record-setting storm over KS/CO/NM in mid-March. May 2019 could end up substantially warmer in Nino 3.4 than Springs after the Super Ninos like 1983, 1998, 2016. Solar activity is still low but it does seem to be climbing now, with most recent months now up y/y. That has some implications for next year too. March/April warmth in Nino 3.4 are both very strong warm signals for the Southeast US in July.

Canadian trended much colder for the West in May. Has El Nino into next winter.

The newest Canadian run has El Nino continuing into next winter. It also shifted to a dramatically colder May in the Western half of the US. Has it as a basin-wide event now, instead of an east-central El Nino