raindancewx

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. @andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies. The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.

New Jamstec is out. It has a bit of a Nino 3.4 rebound before the El Nino falls apart in Summer. US Trended much warmer for Spring. The Jamstec also shows that this El Nino has become less and less of a Modoki event over time.

I mentioned above that I like 1974-75 as an analog for Spring, even though it is a La Nina. Well...it's pretty close for February so far. It had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too.

NOAA says this is now an official El Nino. This is the same time frame as when the 2014-15 El Nino was declared - they wait until the conditions persist/couple. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-announces-arrival-of-el-nino

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07 Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F) Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F) Boston - 41.6F (39.6F) Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F) Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F) Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F) Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F) St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F) Spatially, with what February seems to be doing, this winter may end up resembling something like a diet 1972-73, with a warmer South. We'll have to see. It certainly isn't as cold as 1972-73 in the West, but if you added 3F everywhere, it's not terrible. Highs to date are generally warm east of the Mississippi winter to date, and cold in the West. The SOI has been really cranking lately, by the way. On the ECMWF it looks very negative to slightly negative for each of the next ten days. A reading under -8 for February (El Nino territory again) looks fairly likely. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

The weeklies show a recovery too. Sorry for the delay, at a work party. Wings and pizza. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8

The winters after low solar El Ninos since 1930 are pretty interesting - 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010. Just based on that list I'd say lower than normal chance of an El Nino, but who knows? You could throw in 2016, 2005 and 1998 as borderline cases. I kind of lean toward something like 1992, where El Nino conditions persist fairly long after winter, but the following winter is Neutral. The look right now (and really, this is too detailed, ONI/SST stuff is better for months not days) is a bit like early 2005 in an SST sense. February 2005 had like a -30 SOI, so March 2005 won't show up in 2019 with the same severity. Given a battle between the +SOI in December and -SOI in February, I think the +SOI wins in the East and it is warm, but in the West the -SOI wins. We'll see though. If you look at March/April 2005, the Nino 3.4 SSTs look more like a Nino again than the map below, which is what I expect going by the subsurface.

I went with a blend of 1941-42, 1957-58, 1969-70, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2004-05, 2009-10, 2014-15 for Spring 2019 in my outlook linked below. https://t.co/sYaPDu7ZLU The SOI still looks pretty negative for a while, and it has been negative for days. The local NWS is getting excited about the raging Pacific jet visiting the SW and all the snow we may/should get. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65 The Euro has this for the next five days, and then the following five days. The MJO has been stuck in 6/7 for a while. It is forecast to get to the phase 1/2 transition roughly on 3/1. That transition is fairly similar to Feb-Mar 1986, 1999 and 2005 among recent years.

https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook This is what I have for Spring 2019. We'll see how I do.

The ECMWF has trended to El Nino strengthening at the surface in March and April. Every member of the plume has El Nino conditions in March, and all but one have it continuing in April too.

NOAA had the PDO value dropping off again in January, consistent with US temps in February so far. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ -0.29 in January 2019. Down from December.

The SOI looks like it will see an extended negative period starting in a few days if the ECMWF is right. Maybe a week or more. The most recent reading was a good sign. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

If the February heat content for 100W-180W comes in around +0.9 - and the graphic implies it might - since a warm subsurface wave seems to be moving East - you get some real interesting Marches. This blend actually looks a lot like the blend I am using in my Spring Forecast nationally (releasing it around 2/10), although I expect the cold to be more severe in the middle of the US, with warmer conditions on both coasts, especially the East, given the SOI (Dec), NAO (Oct), prior ENSO event (DJF 2017-18), and low solar all favoring Eastern warmth. Year Dec Jan Feb 1982 1.45 0.05 -0.81 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 Blend 1.07 0.83 0.89 2018 1.06 0.77 0.90

ONI for January (27.25C) and Nov-Jan was +0.8C according to CPC. Weeklies have Nino 1.2 warmer than Nino 3.4 again. Nino 4 is still warm too, and subsurface heat is increasing since early January in the 100-180W zone. I'd expect some of the heat in Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 to fill into Nino 3.4 / Nino 3 again later in February or March. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 Nino 1.2 was 23.95C for NDJ - pretty warm.

The Canadian has flipped to a cold / wet West look, like the CFS and CPC outlooks. It had the East warm in Jan and the West cold - generally right on its 12/31 outlook.

PDO Index values for 2018 - in my email from Nate Mantua the other day January 0.70 February 0.37 March -0.05 April 0.11 May 0.11 June -0.04 July 0.11 August 0.18 September 0.09 October 0.26 November -0.05 December 0.52

Objective, closest SOI matches for NDJ are an interesting bunch for February - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.1 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 7.4 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 8.2 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 8.7 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.8 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.0 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 10.5 CFS may not be completely off its rocker - Just about all the top SOI matches for the past three months have cold in the West or Plains in February, although it occasionally bleeds East in a weaker fashion in a small number of the top years, like Feb 1994.

Back to 1931 in Albuquerque, every year October is wetter than September has been followed by measurable March precipitation. Not the case at all when September is wetter than October. There is a statistically significant difference disfavoring low precipitation Albuquerque during March when October is wetter than September, relative to years when September is wetter than October.

Looks to me like the 100-180W subsurface, top 300m, at the Equator will be around +0.7C in February. Blending that with the +1.35 in Nov and +1.06 in Dec, it is almost impossible not to get a cold East look in some fashion, but there are several combinations, so the center of the cold and the severity of it is in question.

NOAA / CPC stuff is largely back today. ONI was +0.9C for OND as expected (more like +0.85) https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.50 26.65 0.85 CPC uses 26.45C for Nino 3.4 "average" temps in January. Weeklies imply January is still in El Nino territory. Remember, these are centered, so it is through 1/26. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 For 1/1-1/26 using the weeklies, I get 27.1C or so in Nino 3.4, which is still about +0.65C. I do think going into Spring, before this event collapses, it will have more of a Modoki look than the east/basin wide look we've seen in Dec and early January.

The Jamstec updated the weekly Modoki values on their site through mid-January. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.weekly.txt The values are consistent with the event hitting a near ideal Modoki-El Nino look in early Fall, peaking around Halloween, before gradually become more East-based. I am expecting a reversion to a Modoki El Nino look in Spring for what its worth, and the subsurface data for January (+0.7C 100-180W) implies some El Nino influence through Apr 1 at least. 2018:10:3:0 0.654059 2018:10:10:0 0.74381 2018:10:17:0 0.720227 2018:10:24:0 0.766743 2018:10:31:0 1.07251 2018:11:7:0 0.57872 2018:11:14:0 0.51636 2018:11:21:0 0.571958 2018:11:28:0 0.745371 2018:12:5:0 0.552251 2018:12:12:0 0.579795 2018:12:19:0 0.559226 2018:12:26:0 0.314525 2019:1:2:0 0.575521 2019:1:9:0 0.307292 2019:1:16:0 0.231463 Here is a look at 2009 and 2002 for comparison. The calculation is Box A (165E-140W, 10S-10N) - Box B * 0.5 (110W-70W, 15S-5N) - Box C * 0.5 (125E-145E, 10S-20N) 2009:10:7:0 0.521472 2009:10:14:0 0.832267 2009:10:21:0 0.949581 2009:10:28:0 0.986342 2009:11:4:0 0.941528 2009:11:11:0 0.983712 2009:11:18:0 1.04028 2009:11:25:0 1.05629 2009:12:2:0 0.92937 2009:12:9:0 0.898777 2009:12:16:0 1.08688 2009:12:23:0 0.909425 2009:12:30:0 0.791051 2010:1:6:0 1.04744 2010:1:13:0 1.10023 2002:10:2:0 0.716192 2002:10:9:0 0.694229 2002:10:16:0 0.396019 2002:10:23:0 0.699218 2002:10:30:0 0.572236 2002:11:6:0 0.561524 2002:11:13:0 0.73446 2002:11:20:0 0.562245 2002:11:27:0 0.695123 2002:12:4:0 0.54672 2002:12:11:0 0.512048 2002:12:18:0 0.586731 2002:12:25:0 0.563768 2003:1:1:0 0.428649 2003:1:8:0 0.723686 2003:1:15:0 0.819688 The monthly data shows a spike in Box B, the Eastern Pacific, as the event became more basin wide for a while. That continued into Dec and Jan, and has driven down the Modoki values since Halloween.

It is amazing seeing the different outcomes in this region so far -

We should finally be getting an update on ONI for OND, and maybe a few other NOAA things with the shutdown temporarily resolved - I would think? Also, the SOI had its first big daily crash (+4.4 to -6.4) since 12/18-12/19. Drops of 10 points within two days almost always lead to a storm in the SW US in about 10 days. A drop of 10+ in a single day is typically something that precedes a bigger storm or wave of storms. Last time the SOI dropped by 10+ in a day, we had around a month of precipitation on 12/26-12/28. The SOI for January will probably finish negative, but it is only at -2.9 through 1/26. These are the top SOI matches for February if the SOI remains at around -2.9 for January - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.9 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 6.6 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.0 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 9.0 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 9.5 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 9.7 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.8 The subsurface still looks like it is only slowly weakening. Not seeing evidence of a coming rapid collapse like in early 2007 or 2016 or 1998. Some of the pool by 180W looks like it will eventually work up and East into Nino 3.4