raindancewx

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. @andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies. The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.

It's weird, but I swear every late Winter / early Spring (Feb-Apr) after a major hurricane hits the Gulf Coast sees at least one extended period of cold in the West/Plains, or at least in the super warm years like 1933-34 or 2005-06 or 2017-18 you get the least intense heat in that period. I didn't have the West cold for February, but for winter I didn't really have the NW cold or warm, it looked pretty average to me, and the coolness in the SW is what I expected. So actually, Feb is sort of fixing the warmth in the NW previously toward my seasonal expectation even though I got the timing/concentration wrong. The week 3-4 outlook also features a cold West look too, along with the 6-10 and 8-14. The Jamstec update continues to show a cold/wet pattern in Spring for NM/CO too. I actually don't think it will be that wet in most of Colorado in March, but it does look cold to me. I'm looking forward to seeing if we can somehow pull off a 12th drier than average March in a row in Albuquerque despite things looking pretty promising.

New Jamstec is out. It has a bit of a Nino 3.4 rebound before the El Nino falls apart in Summer. US Trended much warmer for Spring. The Jamstec also shows that this El Nino has become less and less of a Modoki event over time.

I mentioned above that I like 1974-75 as an analog for Spring, even though it is a La Nina. Well...it's pretty close for February so far. It had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too.

It's so beautiful - I don't know if I've ever seen a 90% chance of cold in that zone before actually. Coldest winter in Albuquerque by mean high since at least 2012-13 is all but guaranteed at this point, and if February 14-28 has a high lower than 52.1F, this becomes the coldest winter by mean high since 2009-10. Last cold February in Albuquerque was in 2013 - so its definitely interesting to have mostly highs in the 40s/50s again instead of 50s/60s mostly. The MJO is forecast to be in phases 2/3 in early March by the ECMF, which can be very cold too. Over 60% of all days in March in New Mexico are cold when the MJO is in phase two. If February verifies below the long-term average high, Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb will all verify below average here, and I use long-term averages that are colder than 1981-2010.

Boston actually has the same solar tendency Albuquerque has for March snow in El Ninos - the high solar years tend to see much more severe snowfalls as a rule. Taken verbatim, with maybe 6 sunspots on average for July-June 2018-19, you'd expect about 4 inches in March, give or take three. This is consistent with low-solar El Ninos being warm in the East generally during March. The data I used is for El Ninos since 1931.

NOAA says this is now an official El Nino. This is the same time frame as when the 2014-15 El Nino was declared - they wait until the conditions persist/couple. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-announces-arrival-of-el-nino

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

I wasn't referring to my forecast, just what I said in here in November when you were talking about 1963 on the first page. This is what I had - from mid October. For 12/1-2/11, the blend I picked was fairly close outside the SE US, generally within 2F. I put these numbers in the ENSO thread the other day. Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07 Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F) Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F) Boston - 41.6F (39.6F) Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F) Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F) Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F) Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F) St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F) Main issue with my outlook is going to be February. I had the East cold and the West warm. Looks pretty bad right now for that. https://www.scribd.com/document/390797995/Winter-2018-19-Outlook

I think what I said in November more or less held up pretty well. The Fall being completely opposite to 1963-64 held through winter. It was warmer than average in the NE/Plains/MW in December, February is cold in the West to date, and the east is warm to date. The December blend of 2009/2015 for the Plains/NE/MW with Nino 4 SSTs basically matched exactly. If 1963-64 was the guideline, you'd have had a cold NE in Dec and Feb, both look warm, and Feb looks very cold in the West actually, instead of warm like in 1964 (outside NM where it was much colder in 1964). It's not that I assign much value to US Temps themselves, I just thought from the temperature differences that 1963-64 must have had a completely different MJO progression than this year. My thinking was that the MJO was in phases 3-4-5-6 at high amplitude in Oct/Nov in 1963 and that's how the US had near record heat, and then it moved into 7-8-1 in December, which is why it was so cold. We were mostly in 1-2-3 or null in Oct/Nov.

Officially at 4.7" snow in Boston now for the cold season through 2/12.

Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07 Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F) Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F) Boston - 41.6F (39.6F) Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F) Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F) Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F) Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F) St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F) Spatially, with what February seems to be doing, this winter may end up resembling something like a diet 1972-73, with a warmer South. We'll have to see. It certainly isn't as cold as 1972-73 in the West, but if you added 3F everywhere, it's not terrible. Highs to date are generally warm east of the Mississippi winter to date, and cold in the West. The SOI has been really cranking lately, by the way. On the ECMWF it looks very negative to slightly negative for each of the next ten days. A reading under -8 for February (El Nino territory again) looks fairly likely. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

The thing with our region is that 1976-77 has actually been a strong analog in some ways for patterns and storm patterns since October, and that year Denver only had 17.3" through 2/11 so I don't find the 17.5" through 2/11 this year to be particularly shocking. I had 1976-77 as an analog in my October forecast for the cold season, I would have expected the analog blend to beat it, which is somewhat higher than 17.5", but I don't find the pattern that unusual really. If you look at Chicago, Boston, etc, the timing and magnitude of the super cold (1/22 ish) is pretty similar to January 1977 too.

I don't really care about Eastern CO, this isn't the "Denver thread" - that's the least mountainous area of Colorado when you get east of the front range. Western Colorado and Western New Mexico could use the amounts of precipitation depicted. It's been pretty average to date. I don't think its unreasonable to root for snow in SW CO and NW NM given how the drought monitor has looked in the past couple years. It could be five years until another relatively cold / average-wet pattern shows up again. I'd like to see that red area on the second map destroyed.

Latest GFS has the beginnings of the "SOI Storm Cavalry". We'll see what it has tomorrow. Changing its mind all the time. I find that storms over perform here when the SOI rapidly drops in a short period. The -19 reading for 2/11 is the type of thing that precedes big storms.

The weeklies show a recovery too. Sorry for the delay, at a work party. Wings and pizza. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8

The SOI a few days ago was consistent with a storm around 2/18, and the reading for 2/11 just came in at -19, which is the lowest it has been in ages, and another big drop. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73

The winters after low solar El Ninos since 1930 are pretty interesting - 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010. Just based on that list I'd say lower than normal chance of an El Nino, but who knows? You could throw in 2016, 2005 and 1998 as borderline cases. I kind of lean toward something like 1992, where El Nino conditions persist fairly long after winter, but the following winter is Neutral. The look right now (and really, this is too detailed, ONI/SST stuff is better for months not days) is a bit like early 2005 in an SST sense. February 2005 had like a -30 SOI, so March 2005 won't show up in 2019 with the same severity. Given a battle between the +SOI in December and -SOI in February, I think the +SOI wins in the East and it is warm, but in the West the -SOI wins. We'll see though. If you look at March/April 2005, the Nino 3.4 SSTs look more like a Nino again than the map below, which is what I expect going by the subsurface.

I went with a blend of 1941-42, 1957-58, 1969-70, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2004-05, 2009-10, 2014-15 for Spring 2019 in my outlook linked below. https://t.co/sYaPDu7ZLU The SOI still looks pretty negative for a while, and it has been negative for days. The local NWS is getting excited about the raging Pacific jet visiting the SW and all the snow we may/should get. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65 The Euro has this for the next five days, and then the following five days. The MJO has been stuck in 6/7 for a while. It is forecast to get to the phase 1/2 transition roughly on 3/1. That transition is fairly similar to Feb-Mar 1986, 1999 and 2005 among recent years.

https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook This is what I have for Spring 2019. We'll see how I do.

The ECMWF has trended to El Nino strengthening at the surface in March and April. Every member of the plume has El Nino conditions in March, and all but one have it continuing in April too.

NOAA had the PDO value dropping off again in January, consistent with US temps in February so far. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ -0.29 in January 2019. Down from December.

The -PDO profile in January (at least on the NOAA PDO site) is consistent with things like snow in Seattle and the current US Temperature pattern for February. Very strong positive correlations to temps in the NW, basically centered on Seattle with the -PDO for February. No positive PDO til that box is cold -

It's almost like there might be something to the fact that for the last 120 years, 14/16 low solar El Ninos have below 45 inches of snow Boston (from Oct-May). My definition for that was under 50 monthly sunspots on average from July-June, centered on winter. For the other 113 winters, 48 have over 45 inches of snow. Pretty big difference....2/16 over 45", 48/113 over 45". The SOI is finally beginning to couple with the El Nino again, so if there is going to be a snowy period in the NE, it should be in the next few weeks. That said, if Boston is still at 2.3" on 2/16, there is less than a 1% chance historically of getting over 44" from 2/16-5/31, only ~10% of years will top 30" in that period. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow Thru 2/7 1899 18.2 25.0 8.4 1900 8.6 17.5 13.9 1902 18.7 42.0 27 1911 5.4 31.6 21.8 1913 7.4 39.0 12.9 1914 44.5 22.3 15.7 1923 14.6 29.8 12.5 1930 46.3 40.8 20.4 1953 9.5 23.6 20 1963 29.1 63.0 32.3 1965 37.1 44.1 30.3 1976 23.2 58.5 42.9 1986 19.1 42.5 31.3 1994 36.9 14.9 12.6 2006 20.1 17.1 1.8 2009 13.2 35.7 28.9 Mean 22.0 34.2 20.8