raindancewx

If the February heat content for 100W-180W comes in around +0.9 - and the graphic implies it might - since a warm subsurface wave seems to be moving East - you get some real interesting Marches. This blend actually looks a lot like the blend I am using in my Spring Forecast nationally (releasing it around 2/10), although I expect the cold to be more severe in the middle of the US, with warmer conditions on both coasts, especially the East, given the SOI (Dec), NAO (Oct), prior ENSO event (DJF 2017-18), and low solar all favoring Eastern warmth. Year Dec Jan Feb 1982 1.45 0.05 -0.81 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 Blend 1.07 0.83 0.89 2018 1.06 0.77 0.90

This time of year I look at the Feb SOI / Feb heat waves in the SW as signs of what will March will do. The hot/dry Marches in CO and the SW tend to see temperatures hit 75F in Albuquerque by 3/15 or so, and/or SOI values over +10 in February. SOI is near 0 so far in February, with some hints of big crashes coming in the next week to ten days. No 70s in the forecast yet. Almost every February in Albuquerque sees at least a few days in the 60s, so that's not a big deal for March, but in some years it doesn't hit 75F until April. One of the major stormy periods that showed up for our region in my winter forecast was 2/11-2/17 - and that period does look like it has some potential. The SOI does look primarily negative or neutral for a while now. The "SOI Calvary" should arrive later in the month into March.

ONI for January (27.25C) and Nov-Jan was +0.8C according to CPC. Weeklies have Nino 1.2 warmer than Nino 3.4 again. Nino 4 is still warm too, and subsurface heat is increasing since early January in the 100-180W zone. I'd expect some of the heat in Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 to fill into Nino 3.4 / Nino 3 again later in February or March. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 Nino 1.2 was 23.95C for NDJ - pretty warm.

If you look at the CPC analogs they use for the 6-10 and 8-14, they were using Dec 2006 and Dec 1994 throughout the second half of December 2018. That's one of the ways I check to see if I'm off my rocker. We had pretty extreme cold and snow here in late December too, and then January was fairly cold. I had like 6-7 inches of snow at my house from 0.3" or so liquid, since it kept snowing with temperatures around 20F. In the afternoon. We average a high of 46F even at our coldest. When I started to do my Spring Outlook in late December, I had a cold East as the idea for Spring 2019, but with the ESRL site back I can see what the blend looks like now, not as cold as I thought. Given that NYC and Philly are both around 33% below normal for snow and Maine has been rocking and rolling, I think you have to assume Boston trends up toward their level by the end of the season.

Here are some numbers for Boston, now that 10/1-1/31 is at 2.3" in Boston officially - From 1891-2018, the most snow Boston has had from 2/1-5/31 is 73.4 inches in 2015. 1925 had Trace. If you throw out the ten snowiest and ten least snowy periods, you'd expect 6-46 inches for 2/1-5/31, based on the records. Low solar El Ninos (by SSTA / annual sunspots) average 13.8" since 1931 for 2/1-5/31, its a bit less if you include prior to 1930. The 2.3" through 1/31 is 2nd lowest, for 10/1-1/31, behind 2006-07 since 1891-92. Boston finished January with a high of 38.5F, my analogs had 36.7F for January (the blend of January 1954, 1977, 1987, 1995, 1995, 2007), so not bad for an October outlook. I've been pleased with the blend to date, 1953 showed up in late Nov / early Dec, 1986 in Oct/Nov, 1994/2006 in Dec, 2006/1977 in Jan. As amazing as January 1977 was, Boston never had a high as low as 10F like it did this year. The magnitude of the battle between the heat and cold was the hardest part of the forecast for me, it's why I had 1994 and 1976 in there. The coldest highs in 1977 were Jan 17-18, this year Jan 21-22. I incorporate MJO timing into my analogs, so that was about when I expected the severe cold to show up if it was going to happen.

Canadian has a cold West for both February and March on its new run. CFS / CPC went cold for the West in Feb too.

The Canadian has flipped to a cold / wet West look, like the CFS and CPC outlooks. It had the East warm in Jan and the West cold - generally right on its 12/31 outlook.

PDO Index values for 2018 - in my email from Nate Mantua the other day January 0.70 February 0.37 March -0.05 April 0.11 May 0.11 June -0.04 July 0.11 August 0.18 September 0.09 October 0.26 November -0.05 December 0.52

Objective, closest SOI matches for NDJ are an interesting bunch for February - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.1 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 7.4 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 8.2 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 8.7 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.8 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.0 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 10.5 CFS may not be completely off its rocker - Just about all the top SOI matches for the past three months have cold in the West or Plains in February, although it occasionally bleeds East in a weaker fashion in a small number of the top years, like Feb 1994.

Back to 1931 in Albuquerque, every year October is wetter than September has been followed by measurable March precipitation. Not the case at all when September is wetter than October. There is a statistically significant difference disfavoring low precipitation Albuquerque during March when October is wetter than September, relative to years when September is wetter than October.

Looks to me like the 100-180W subsurface, top 300m, at the Equator will be around +0.7C in February. Blending that with the +1.35 in Nov and +1.06 in Dec, it is almost impossible not to get a cold East look in some fashion, but there are several combinations, so the center of the cold and the severity of it is in question.

Precipitation is extremely localized, and elevation only makes it more challenging to visualize. It's never going to be perfect. The maps for snow are just meant to give general ideas of regions that have seen above or below average snowfall. There are individual mountains down here that are well below, well above, and near normal, but we have more of the latter two, so it shows up as green/blue on the map. My outlook had the Coastal NE and interior NW with relatively low snow and the Plains/Rockies with fairly high snow (also areas east of the Great Lakes) based on the snow maps maps I made for my analog years - so that's really the main use of the snow maps to me. They are spatially interpolated, not a measurement of every square mile like satellites can do for temps.

After re-scoring my top weather matches for July-Jan, and then looking for a blend that looks relatively close for the AMO, PDO, ENSO, Solar, Modoki, Monsoon, ENSO in the prior winter, and my local weather for both precip and highs each month, I've settled on my Spring analogs. March is actually very sensitive to the NAO in Oct, the SOI in Dec, solar conditions, and ENSO at a one year lag in various parts of the US, but most of those things favor Eastern warmth without much impact on the West. Tentatively like this blend with the East 3-4F warmer and the West 1-2F warmer after adjusting for the higher October NAO, the higher December SOI, the lower solar conditions, and the prior ENSO being a La Nina. The blend includes years with major hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast, and tries to respect the +1.5 NAO in Oct and +9.1 SOI in Dec. It also includes my top precipitation matches as an MJO indicator, and is fairly close nationally on Tmax transitions in Fall/Winter. My main adjustment from the NAO, Solar, SOI and ENSO prior is to extend the heat in MN to the SE and SW, leaving the cold core centered on Kansas roughly. April also looks very cold in the West before everything kind of snaps in May.

NOAA / CPC stuff is largely back today. ONI was +0.9C for OND as expected (more like +0.85) https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.50 26.65 0.85 CPC uses 26.45C for Nino 3.4 "average" temps in January. Weeklies imply January is still in El Nino territory. Remember, these are centered, so it is through 1/26. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 For 1/1-1/26 using the weeklies, I get 27.1C or so in Nino 3.4, which is still about +0.65C. I do think going into Spring, before this event collapses, it will have more of a Modoki look than the east/basin wide look we've seen in Dec and early January.

My Winter analogs from October had the East cold and the West warm in February. Not sure that's going to happen now. I think the core of the cold may be centered over Missouri or Iowa instead of Ohio or New York, and that may be enough to get NM, CO, WY, MT to a near normal February, with the core of the heat west of the Continental Divide. When the MJO went into phase 2-3 in October, Albuquerque had a high of 42F on 10/15, which is insane (normal is 71F). Feb/Mar can be extremely cold in the West when the MJO gets to phase 2-3 in Feb/Mar/Apr - and it's kind of due since we skipped 2/3 in January. Would really like to see what this pattern could do in Feb/Mar with the MJO in 2 or 3 at high amplitude. None of the models really have that as an outcome, but I'd imagine its possible sometime after 2/5.

The Jamstec updated the weekly Modoki values on their site through mid-January. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.weekly.txt The values are consistent with the event hitting a near ideal Modoki-El Nino look in early Fall, peaking around Halloween, before gradually become more East-based. I am expecting a reversion to a Modoki El Nino look in Spring for what its worth, and the subsurface data for January (+0.7C 100-180W) implies some El Nino influence through Apr 1 at least. 2018:10:3:0 0.654059 2018:10:10:0 0.74381 2018:10:17:0 0.720227 2018:10:24:0 0.766743 2018:10:31:0 1.07251 2018:11:7:0 0.57872 2018:11:14:0 0.51636 2018:11:21:0 0.571958 2018:11:28:0 0.745371 2018:12:5:0 0.552251 2018:12:12:0 0.579795 2018:12:19:0 0.559226 2018:12:26:0 0.314525 2019:1:2:0 0.575521 2019:1:9:0 0.307292 2019:1:16:0 0.231463 Here is a look at 2009 and 2002 for comparison. The calculation is Box A (165E-140W, 10S-10N) - Box B * 0.5 (110W-70W, 15S-5N) - Box C * 0.5 (125E-145E, 10S-20N) 2009:10:7:0 0.521472 2009:10:14:0 0.832267 2009:10:21:0 0.949581 2009:10:28:0 0.986342 2009:11:4:0 0.941528 2009:11:11:0 0.983712 2009:11:18:0 1.04028 2009:11:25:0 1.05629 2009:12:2:0 0.92937 2009:12:9:0 0.898777 2009:12:16:0 1.08688 2009:12:23:0 0.909425 2009:12:30:0 0.791051 2010:1:6:0 1.04744 2010:1:13:0 1.10023 2002:10:2:0 0.716192 2002:10:9:0 0.694229 2002:10:16:0 0.396019 2002:10:23:0 0.699218 2002:10:30:0 0.572236 2002:11:6:0 0.561524 2002:11:13:0 0.73446 2002:11:20:0 0.562245 2002:11:27:0 0.695123 2002:12:4:0 0.54672 2002:12:11:0 0.512048 2002:12:18:0 0.586731 2002:12:25:0 0.563768 2003:1:1:0 0.428649 2003:1:8:0 0.723686 2003:1:15:0 0.819688 The monthly data shows a spike in Box B, the Eastern Pacific, as the event became more basin wide for a while. That continued into Dec and Jan, and has driven down the Modoki values since Halloween.

It's somewhere in the original ENSO thread but this is the link I have readily available - I've been pretty happy with it. Major issues to date have been that I was too cold in the SE. I'd give the snow map a B+ so far. I didn't have the NC/VA zone that snowy for instance. Highs aren't bad either -

It is amazing seeing the different outcomes in this region so far -

I asked this a while ago, and someone gave me this link. Here is 7/1/18 to 1/27/19. You do have to register, but it is free and you can make a lot of maps. https://mrcc.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/index.jsp

10/1-1/26 snowfall in Boston (assuming none today). Additional snow 1/27-5/31: 2007 - 15.6", 1928 - 19.2", 1980 - 10.1", 1932 - 15.8", 1944 - 24.2", 1986 - 13.4", 1989 - 10.3", 1958 - 39.3", 1969 - 48.1", 1973 - 4.4". Average additional is 20 inches from 1/27 to 5/31, range is 4-40" for years with under six inches of total snow by 1/26. 1 2007-01-26 1.5 0 2 1928-01-26 1.6 1 3 2019-01-26 1.8 1 4 1980-01-26 2.4 1 5 1932-01-26 2.6 1 6 1944-01-26 3.5 0 7 1986-01-26 4.7 0 8 1989-01-26 5.2 0 9 1958-01-26 5.4 0 10 1969-01-26 5.7 0 11 1973-01-26 5.9 0

We should finally be getting an update on ONI for OND, and maybe a few other NOAA things with the shutdown temporarily resolved - I would think? Also, the SOI had its first big daily crash (+4.4 to -6.4) since 12/18-12/19. Drops of 10 points within two days almost always lead to a storm in the SW US in about 10 days. A drop of 10+ in a single day is typically something that precedes a bigger storm or wave of storms. Last time the SOI dropped by 10+ in a day, we had around a month of precipitation on 12/26-12/28. The SOI for January will probably finish negative, but it is only at -2.9 through 1/26. These are the top SOI matches for February if the SOI remains at around -2.9 for January - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.9 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 6.6 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.0 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 9.0 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 9.5 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 9.7 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.8 The subsurface still looks like it is only slowly weakening. Not seeing evidence of a coming rapid collapse like in early 2007 or 2016 or 1998. Some of the pool by 180W looks like it will eventually work up and East into Nino 3.4

We had a single day 10 point SOI drop 1/25 to 1/26. Last time that happened was 12/18-12/19 and it preceded the wave of storms running through the SW from about 12/26 to 1/15. I don't really buy anything the models show right now since the MJO expectations are a mess, but we'll probably get to at least phase 7 at high amplitude.

I'm not expecting too much precipitation or extreme heat or cold for Colorado or New Mexico in February, but the 1/1 Jamstec run was a pretty good forecast for Spring 2018, and it has a pretty good Spring 2019 for us - cold, wet. The CFS has been showing a very wet March for a while now in NM and CO. I don't trust it this far out, but my current Spring 2019 analogs have a pretty cold and wet March for the Plains and the Rockies. It's hard to say exactly how cold and wet, since the ESRL site that lets you blend analogs is down. I've got four independent methods of predicting precipitation totals in Albuquerque in Spring, and they all say "wet Spring", which is interesting, since a lot of the data favors a dry May. As far as temps go, the low-solar El Ninos tend to be average to warm in the East in March after a cold February. The big +NAO years in October, like 2018 tend to see cold in the West centered on AZ in both January (check) and March (maybe?). The El Ninos when a major hurricane hits the Gulf Coast tend to see extreme cold follow in March somewhere in the Western half of the US. Years with +SOI values in December also tend to favor a warm SE / relatively cold NW US in March. For New Mexico, I'm expecting March to be colder and wetter than average in the same month for the first time in over a decade, since 2005. March 2007 was wet and warm, March 2010 was cold and dry. March 2015 & 2016 were both warm and dry, although Feb 22-28 2015 had 70-100 inches of snow in the mountains here. Years with extremely high precipitation in October in the Southwest tend to have tropical moisture feeding into the region, and that tends to repeat in March. Large areas of Arizona and New Mexico had extremely wet conditions in October. September moisture from the tropics, for whatever reason corresponds better to February, and it was drier then.

Subsurface is hanging on. Finish around +0.7 for January would be interesting for February.

My analogs had 1/20-2/10 as the coldest period in the Northeast US. The convection in the Indian Ocean now tends to precede warm ups in the US by 10-15 days according to a research paper, and it last showed up before the December warm up. The CFS has a pretty warm second week of February now, possibly in conjunction with this research. The positive SOI in December (and maybe January?) favor warmth in the SE US to some extent. For March...I could see things getting a bit crazy in the West or Plains, but I agree on a warm up for the East. The El Nino Marches following an El Nino hurricane season with a major hurricane hitting the US Gulf Coast tend to feature severe cold in the Western half of the US...somewhere. Look at March 1942, 1958, 1966, 1970, 2005. Big NAO+ periods in October correlate pretty strongly to a cold Jan/Mar in the West, regardless of ENSO, and that looks fairly solid so far. Low solar El Ninos tend to be warm in the East in March too. I have my analog set for Spring, tentatively, but can't see what they look like yet with the NOAA/ESRL stuff down. I've been pretty happy with my blend of 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07 for winter to date in the US.