raindancewx

The big SOI crash in recent days implies a fairly cold Texas in November if we finish well into the -SOI territory.

Sept 1-3 average high temperature (77.33F) is the third coldest start to September in Albuquerque since 1931. We're 10% of the way through the month, and more rain seems to be coming this week, so will be hard for highs to rebound much. Pretty decent odds of a cold September now.

61F at noon here in Albuquerque. We had a rare significant rainfall event in the morning - easy way to get a cold day here in the Summer. Likely our first day not hitting 80F since June 16th.

I've decided to roll with 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as my Fall analogs. Cold AMO ring, slightly positive PDO, El Nino developing, La Nina in prior winter, low-solar, similar Modoki structure, and similar Monsoon conditions. So we'll see how it does. We had near record November highs here last year (65.4F, average in Nov is 57.3F), so that is the main reason for the huge drop off expected. Going from +3.3F for Fall highs to -1.4F for Fall highs against 1951-2010 is what the analogs get for Albuquerque.

Sea Ice Extent on 8/17/18 was 5.568 million square km. That is above 2017 (5.371), 2016 (5.398), 2012 (4.691), 2011 (5.495), and 2007 (5.322) for the same date (8/17). Will be curious to see how the annualized AMO v. ice extent on 8/1 plot looks after this year is over.

Starting to think we have a shot at >=5 inches of rain for June-August here. Well over four inches through 8/17 at 7:30 pm.

The Jamstec trended to a wetter winter for NM & TX, but also warmer. Shows a somewhat weaker El Nino. Last August, there was a huge correction away from the previously shown El Nino in July. Not this year.

We've been getting rains here almost every day since late July. Pretty wonderful honestly. This is my very early idea for winter -

97F here at 8 pm. In late July. Pretty impressive.

As of July 21, ice extent is +0.5 million square km above last year. Math for the win.

The June AMO came in at the lowest value since 2002. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data AMO peak looks like it was 2005-2012, after warming a lot in 1997-2004 and near neutral for much of 1989-1996. We may be transitioning to a more Neutral AMO for 2019-2026 before the real flip to the cold phase begins. I look at 2013-2018/9 as kind of a "warm, but cooling" era. We seem to be past the era when every month is warm in the Atlantic, to where MOST months are warm, and soon it will be half, then it will be rare, and so on.

Heavy rains missed Albuquerque itself today, but slammed areas due north and south of the city. A levee failed in Belen -

My point was more that even in areas where people supposedly care about environmentalism and global warming, they really don't. If you believe the oceans will rise 50m in the next 100 years why would you live by the ocean? I've been to Cape May County, used to go every Summer - would bet good money no parcel of land is more than 100 feet above level, and it is surrounded by water on three sides, but I'm sure some of the people who live there haven't put two and two together about the possible sea level rise. To go back on topic, the AMO has been warming up recently after the cold May/June, will be interesting to see what it looks look by mid-September. If it stays relatively cold, I don't think the min or shape in Sept of sea-ice extent looks anything like last year.

The idea that civilization can be redesigned because people care about the environment or the Earth's temperature seems kind of ridiculous to me. Liberals are supposedly the people who care about the environment, but they live in densely populated, highly urbanized areas, not just in the US but globally. I live in the West, with people who are small farmers and ranchers, where we have clean water, clean air, and can see thousands of stars every night and we kind of laugh at the idea that somehow the right is the problem. There is literally nothing stopping the Democrats from changing civilization to adapt to global warming in areas that are urban and by the ocean - that is how you know it won't happen. Los Angeles alone probably produces more smog and warming than 30+ US states if traffic is as bad as I remember.

The AMO & 8/1 ice extent, for 1979-2017 when compared to 1979-2016, saw an increased r-value relationship. Jan-May AMO value is down 0.16 from last year (+0.08 v. +0.24). Theoretically worth around 0.5 million sq km in sea ice extent.

Saturday looks like a pretty good day for precipitation in the SW. Fingers crossed.

Looks like the city had 0.5-1.0 inches of rain today, with areas west of town reporting up to 3 inches and a couple confirmed tornado. Lots of hail and thunder around too. Rained so hard it was actually fell into the upper 50s around 3 pm, which is an amazing outcome for June.

Possibility of heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes on Sunday for much of New Mexico. Might give the city the first wet June since 2010. CAPE (up to 2000j/kg?) and Bulk sheer values look fairly impressive for this part of the world.

CPC, the CFS and the GFS currently like a wet June for NM - let's do it. Kill the heat.

With the Pacific fairly Neutral now, the Atlantic and solar conditions are probably going to drive the pattern for 6-8 weeks. Cold AMO in May is fairly strongly linked to a colder June for TX and parts of NM too - we will see.

CFS has been trying to hint at a wet June for a little while now, which is what my analogs have been showing down here for a while. Early onset monsoon, then ends early.

Pending this next little system, I believe we've had only 2 days here (Albuquerque) with over 0.10" precipitation since Oct 1. Very rare here, we're not Yuma, tied with three other years for fewest >0.1" days since 1892.

We were 40F or so on Friday afternoon, I'd call it a Blue Norther level cold front. Wind was fierce and unrelenting. Midnight high of 54F though.

MJO is active once again, it is currently in phase 7 and should be in phase 2 by mid-April. Have to watch for cold in the SW and severe weather in the Plains and mid-south.

Expecting trace to 0.20" here tomorrow with the storm coming through. If we get over 0.13" on 3/27, this becomes the wettest March since 2010 for Albuquerque. If we get over 0.31" tomorrow, wettest March since 2007 (!)