raindancewx

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

This is a pet theory of mine, need to see how the more meaningful things do, like SST changes, storms tracks, etc, but the El Nino years after the Gulf Coast is hit by a major hurricane do have some tendency to see incredible cold March weather in our part of the world. I'm thinking specifically of 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 2004-05. The ESRL stuff is down, but you have to imagine the composite of the five years is like -5F centered on Western Nebraska or somewhere thereabout. I ran some numbers here, and the precipitation composite for "snowiest month" is indicating March, in a pretty strong way locally. My top three precipitation matches for July-Dec in the past 100 years are 1969-70, 1974-75, and 1998-99, all of which have a lot of rain and heavy snow in March. If you wanted an optimistic signal for the West, this is the relationship between total snow in Boston from 10/1-1/8 in El Nino years, and total snow in Albuquerque. The Boston observers reported T snow today for their 5 pm update, so Boston is only at 0.2" through 1/8. You can see that is fairly similar to a lot of the winters that ended up very snowy out here. Finishing up at 5.3", where we are now, would be a pretty huge outlier on the image (although I don't expect 20 inches either).

Had snow on the ground in my backyard for 11 days, it melted with the tiny bit of 40F rain we had yesterday. The GFS has some pretty good storms for the West overall for the next week, which is a bit odd given that phase 8 of the MJO tends to be dry in January for the West. Phase 7 is wet though, so maybe everything is just lagging a bit since we only spent a single day in phase seven.

For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule. Anyway, weeklies. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

You can play games all you want, but a blend of 1953, 1976 and 1977 looks like nothing like what has happened this winter nationally or in Boston. As an example, the blend of those years was very cold in the Plains, and Bismarck is running around +8F winter to date. It's amazing how different you ended up from what I had given you used two of the same analogs. 12/1-1/4 1953-54 in Boston: 46.9F average high. 0.5" snow 12/1-1/4 1976-77 in Boston: 36.7F average high. 17.5" snow 12/1-1/4 1977-78 in Boston: 39.5F average high. 9.0" snow Means: 41.0F - 3.4F too cold. 9.0" snow 12/1-1/4 2018-19 in Boston: 44.4F average high, 0.2" snow This is what I had - since someone suggested I analyze what I put out - 12/1-1/4, 1953-54: 46.9F, 0.5" 12/1-1/4, 1976-77: 36.7F, 17.5" 12/1-1/4: 1986-87: 41.1F, 7.1" 12/1-1/4: 1994-95: 44.7F, 1.5" 12/1-1/4: 1994-95: 44.7F, 1.5" 12/1-1/4: 2006-07: 47.8F, 0.8" Means: 43.7F - 0.7F too cold. 4.8" snow. Not great for snow, but given how close the national maps have looked so far, I'll take it. For what it's worth, the cold in the West so far this month is consistent with what I posted earlier about the +NAO leading to cold in the SW in January.

I remember tacoman, but he isn't me. Boston had 4.2" through 1/5 2015, 3.8" through 1/5 2013, you had 5.6" through 1/5 1969. I don't really doubt a fairly large turn around is coming, I'm just trying to point out that Ray is laughing at me when historically you have - *literally* - less than a 1/100 shot at getting 80" in Boston with 0.2" through 1/5, given 99% of years have under 75" from this point on.

When exactly is this 80-90 inches of snowfall you've been touting supposed to come? I see maybe an inch to three through 1/10. You're running +9 in January after a warm December. Do you think maybe the fact that out of 120 years only one had 75+ from this point on matters or are you just going to keep laughing at me even though my numbers have been closer for temps, snowfall and precip, and national trends than yours since Oct? You've got 85 inches to go. Good luck.

Boston is at 0.2", half of Tuscon, and fourth lowest on record through 1892 according to NOAA. The range in total snowfall for Boston for the bottom 20 years on 1/5 is 9 inches to 47 inches if you go back to 1892, sorted by totals as of 1/5. Other than 2014-15, which had 100+ inches Jan 6-May 31, with the super PDO, and high solar, every Boston winter has had under 76 inches of snow between January 6th and May 31st. The middle 90% of years will see 10-70 inches, but of course, you can see from the list below that the bottom 20 years through 1/5 are clustered in the bottom 60% for 1/6 to 5/31. I do think this period coming up is snowier for the NE, but really...how could it not be? I wasn't expecting you guys to finish with five inches of snow. Final Snowfall in Boston, 1892-2018, by totals as of 1/5 of that winter. These 20 years have a mean snowfall of 27 inches. 1999-2000 - 36.4 1891-1892 - 46.8 1957-1958 - 44.7 1943-1944 - 27.7 1927-1928 - 20.8 1925-1926 - 38.0 2006-2007 - 17.1 1998-1999 - 25.6 2015-2016 - 36.1 1900-1901 - 17.5 2011-2012 - 9.3 1913-1914 - 39.0 1990-1991 - 19.1 1953-1954 - 23.6 1935-1936 - 29.2 1994-1995 - 14.9 1931-1932 - 18.4 1973-1974 - 36.9 1979-1980 - 12.5 1952-1953 - 29.8 Whatever happens by winter end, I hope you'll at least recognize that the data has had some validity in showing that low solar El Ninos are not great for snowfall for Boston overall. Anyway, with the ESRL stuff still down, I wanted to show what winter looks like so far. It looks like a blend of where 1991-92 and 1997-98 finished up so far.

I find it is a pretty good indicator for the storm track in the SW, if you wait about 10 days after a 10 point+ drop within 1-2 days. The - to - drops tend seem to be better storms for the whole country than the + to -, or + to + 10 point drops. It also does tie in to what the MJO will do, but these things are connected anyway.

Boom. There goes the dynamite. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67 30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50 29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16

Today is the eighth day in a row snow has not melted from my property. I've only had 6 or 7 inches since 12/27. So...it's the cold that preserves it. The low of 7F this morning was the coldest low in the city since (officially) since the great cold wave of February 2011...when the HIGH was 9F, and the low was -7F. The mountains are absolutely gorgeous. The high today was 33F. First time it has been over 32F for more than an hour in over a week. The Grand Canyon looked gorgeous in the snow the other day too. NM ski resorts are doing really well so far. Red River (8600 ft) has records from 1906-2014, and they average 135" or so, so 64" through early January is a strong result for them. Their top seasons are around 250 inches. My analogs had them at 82" through January 31 on their way to 160" by June 1, so they're actually beating the pace I had by 15% or so. Arizona. Ruidoso, NM

The past eight days (12/26-1/2), once 1/2 is included have had the second coldest mean high in Albuquerque since the 1931-32 winter - 34.0F (11F below 1932-2018 average)

Did you all see that Tuscon had snow the other day? Not real common. They got 0.4" of the white stuff when it was 33F - heavy, wet snow. More than Boston has had officially. We're up to 5.3" officially in Albuquerque. It's pretty rare to get >=3" in Dec and >=3" in Jan here, we'll see if that rule holds up this year, with Dec at 3.3" and Jan already at 2.0". Neither month is currently high enough to make me think we're mostly done with snow here. El Nino cold seasons tend to have around seven inches of snow in their top month, and 3.3" (23/27 times) is pretty unlikely to be our top snowfall month. I've had snow on the ground for six full days now. Temps have not hit 32F at my house since 12/27. Airport has been above freezing for exactly 20 minutes since about 7:30 pm on 12/27.

ECMWF (OI data set) had a weakening El Nino in December.

The city had snow today. Very cold for most of the day, it was somehow 34F from like 11:45 pm to 12:05 am and then not above freezing at any other time on 12/31 or 1/1, so that kind of artificially raised highs on both days, oh well. Most of the snow today fell around 20F temps, so most places got 1-5" with only 0.05-0.20" liquid equivalent in town.

A lot of places in the NE have been dry since Dec 1 - but I agree it's been wet overall.

The pattern to me, by temps/precip is essentially a colder 1994-95 nationally with a weaker/drier subtropical jet than that year because of the SOI in December. I don't think its that shocking what has happened to date. The low solar El Ninos tend to be drier than the high solar years nationally. Wouldn't be shocked if there is one big blizzard in the NE between 1/20 and 2/10, but outside that window I don't see much potential. There are strong correlations between big +SOI Decembers and the SE ridge/eastern warmth in Feb. Most of the things I look at imply Western or Southwestern cold in March with tornado outbreaks in the Plains and SE throughout March.

Dec subsurface for 100-180W was officially +1.13. Two easy strong blends for January: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt I can't use ESRL, but here are some anomalies v. 1951-2010 highs. I would say this first blend is close to the new Canadian I listed above. This blend tries to focus most on Dec. Year Oct Nov Dec 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 2015 1.91 1.78 1.20 2015 1.91 1.78 1.20 Mean 1.59 1.36 1.12 2018 1.58 1.35 1.13 Jan 1987 2016 2016 Mean Anomaly Boston 35.6 39.5 39.5 38.2 1.9 JAX 63.5 61.8 61.8 62.4 -2.3 Bismarck 31.9 26.8 26.8 28.5 8.1 Chicago 32.2 31.7 31.7 31.9 1.5 ABQ 46.1 47.5 47.5 47.0 -0.7 Seattle 45.7 49.1 49.1 48.0 2.6 San Diego 64.1 65.5 65.5 65.0 -0.5 This is the other blend. Produces a colder NE, warmer SW. Of course, it looks very cold here short term, and less like the Canadian. Year Oct Nov Dec 2018 1.58 1.36 1.13 1982 2.07 1.92 1.45 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1991 1.41 1.22 1.71 2002 1.72 1.58 0.74 2002 1.72 1.58 0.74 Mean 1.57 1.36 1.12

The SOI has dropped pretty massively the last two days. I agree about California, there are some signs showing the SW getting a lot of precipitation in Jan. The newest Canadian model is in. Here are the trends. The cold in California makes sense to me given the amount of storminess that seems to be coming. NE trended drier. SW colder. Here is February. Vastly warmer/drier. Dec SOI doesn't have much correation on Jan temps/precip for whatever reason. Tends to show up in February. Might be seeing that below. Canadian has also trended to a much weaker El Nino, which is interesting.

I went down to Ruidoso, NM earlier, and the place I went to do snow tubing (Alto, NM) had around 20 inches of snow the other day. Conditions were great. Lots of huge piles of snow around, fresh snow on the hills and mountains. Another winter storm warning here. This storm keeps slowing down and moving erratically. The path is different from the last one, so on a SE wind it finally seems to have cross 32F for the first time since 12/27 here a few minutes ago. The high was supposed to be in the mid 20s tomorrow, that looks like a bust if we stay in the mid 30s through midnight. The models had been showing winds slacking off eventually, maybe, later Tuesday, but if the temps are closer to 30 the amounts the NWS has (5-10") won't verify in the city given relatively low precip totals at high temps and the current high winds. ..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations generally ranging from 5 to 10 inches for elevations below 7500 feet with higher amounts of 7 to 15 inches above 7500 feet. Locally higher amounts near 2 feet will be possible in the highest elevations above 10000 feet. Portions of the middle Rio Grande valley will be shadowed, and could receive much less snow ranging from 1 to 3 inches. East canyon winds will gust as high as 40 to 50 mph in parts of the Rio Grande valley.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 04JAN1995 24.7 0.8 26.1 0.7 27.6 1.1 29.3 0.9 Some weakening. Basin wide. Nino 3.4 around 27.60C for Dec? Still kind of like 1994 and 2006 relative to 2002 and 2009. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 09DEC2009 22.7 0.2 26.6 1.5 28.2 1.7 29.6 1.1 16DEC2009 22.6-0.2 26.7 1.5 28.3 1.8 29.7 1.2 23DEC2009 23.7 0.5 26.8 1.5 28.4 1.9 29.7 1.3 30DEC2009 24.3 0.7 26.7 1.4 28.3 1.7 29.6 1.2 06DEC2006 22.9 0.5 26.1 1.1 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.1 13DEC2006 22.9 0.2 26.3 1.2 27.8 1.2 29.5 1.0 20DEC2006 23.7 0.6 26.5 1.3 27.7 1.2 29.4 1.0 27DEC2006 24.0 0.6 26.6 1.3 27.7 1.1 29.4 1.0

In El Nino years, Albuquerque (officially) will typically see one one month with around 7 inches of snow. Since the next storm probably won't really bring any snow here until 1/1, December is pretty unlikely (23/27 El Ninos since 1931) to be the snowiest month here. That's kind of unusual. The top snow month here seems AMO driven in El Nino years. AMO years over +0.1 from Nov-Apr will almost always see Dec as snowiest. AMO years below -0.1 in Nov-Apr will almost always see Jan as snowiest. In between...March usually wins. It is hard to tell with the ESRL mapping stuff down, but an AMO between -0.1 and +0.1 seems pretty likely for Nov-Apr since Nov was -0.121, coldest since 1996, but Dec looks warmer. 1969-70 and 1974-75 were both very snowy in the SW in March...and they match the precipitation pattern for July-Dec 2018 well, two of the three closest matches in the last 100 years, along with 1998-99 which like 1974 is a La Nina...but had a wet/snowy March. Both 1974 and 1969 had unusual linkages with the SOI, with big opposite sign SOI values to the ENSO state in December/January. Both had extremely cold highs Jan 1-5 in Albuquerque, ~33F 1/1-1/5 in 1970, and ~30F 1/1-1/15 in 1975. Back to 1931, and also back to 1892 with the scattered data available, 1974-75 is the ONLY year with over 3 inches of snow in March a July-June with under 55 sunspots, out of 30+ tries, so that has my attention too. Pretty sure March 1975 is also the wettest March in Albuquerque in a year with under 50 sunspots. I also couldn't find any Decembers with over 3.5" snow here when the Dec SOI is over 8 - and it is going to be around 9.5 this month. So that rule should hold (barely) this year. Sometimes it seems like the biggest warm ups (winter - previous winter) in Nino 3.4 are the most severe winters here if the prior winter was cold, and 1974-75 did warm up 1.3C from the much stronger La Nina of 1973-74. If the average high of 29F or so verifies for 1/1-1/5, we'll be at a high of 44.7F for 12/1-1/5, which is pretty cold (-3F?) for us. My 2-3 inches of snow is still around after falling by 11 pm on 12/27. It's hard to imagine January being a warm month here if the 1/1-1/5 high does verify at 29F-31F or so. First ten days of the month would probably be 37F or something?

Weather.com has the Jan 1-5 high in Albuquerque at about 29F, which is second coldest in the last 100-years for that period if that ends up verifying. It's probably off a bit, but don't think it will be terribly wrong either.

This is still a bit out, and will depend to some extent on any new snow we get, but the average high here for Jan 1-5 looks like it has a shot at being the second coldest in 100 years. Has to be one of the coldest five day forecasts in the last 100 years for the city. I'd also like to point out that July-December 1969 has been an excellent analog for precipitation and temperatures here, so seeing January 1970 in 8th place (33.0F) is fascinating. Also, the 1974-75 July-Dec period, which is probably the closest match at this point, has been dead on for precipitation, and sure enough January 1975 is in second place. I'm not sure why all these years in the 1970s are showing up.

SOI is going to finish December right around 9.5 looks like, it is 9.46 for 12/1-12/30. Top six matches for Oct-Dec will be some blend of these years. Year Oct Nov Dec Match 2018 2.6 0.6 9.5 0.0 1954 2.2 2.3 11.5 4.1 1996 5.2 -0.1 7.3 5.5 1945 2.9 -3.4 5.4 8.4 2003 -2.9 -2.4 9.0 9.0 1933 4.1 6.8 6.9 10.3 1961 4.7 6.8 12.5 11.3 January 2004 still looks like a decent MJO match too, I think its safe to assume we will be near the MJO 5/6 transition around 1/1/19. The MJO was near that position in January 2004 too. 1997-98 is still following a similar MJO migration as this year too. Worth noting that almost all of the top SOI matches are low solar years - 1954, 1996, 1933, very low, and the others relatively low. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50 29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16 28 Dec 2018 1010.84 1003.60 18.27 9.33 3.79 27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34 23 Dec 2018 1011.65 1005.45 12.87 9.35 3.16 22 Dec 2018 1011.39 1005.10 13.34 9.15 2.81 21 Dec 2018 1011.94 1005.35 14.89 8.83 2.36 20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49 17 Dec 2018 1013.56 1006.50 17.33 6.56 1.17 16 Dec 2018 1011.96 1006.00 11.62 5.14 0.90 15 Dec 2018 1012.11 1005.25 16.29 4.29 0.82 14 Dec 2018 1013.05 1005.15 21.69 3.69 0.72 13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 2.36 0.46 11 Dec 2018 1010.69 1006.20 4.00 1.89 0.37 10 Dec 2018 1010.20 1006.30 0.93 2.13 0.39 9 Dec 2018 1010.20 1007.15 -3.48 2.39 0.25 8 Dec 2018 1010.39 1006.25 2.18 2.69 0.03 7 Dec 2018 1010.34 1005.40 6.33 2.58 -0.23 6 Dec 2018 1011.07 1006.20 5.97 2.34 -0.64 5 Dec 2018 1012.80 1007.45 8.46 2.15 -1.06 4 Dec 2018 1013.56 1009.35 2.54 1.78 -1.45 3 Dec 2018 1014.10 1008.80 8.20 1.52 -1.61 2 Dec 2018 1014.79 1008.40 13.86 0.95 -1.74 1 Dec 2018 1014.01 1009.05 6.43 0.49 -1.84