raindancewx

Severe weather outbreaks this month seem at least partially tied to the big SOI drops, which tend to put big time storms in the SW in 10 days. The big SOI drop 4/10-4/11 correspond well to the storm today. Snowed in Gallup and Grants today in NM, down to 5,000-6,000 feet, which is pretty rare in late May. A lot of areas have seen eight months in a row of measurable snow at fairly low elevations here. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 May 2019 1013.32 1012.95 -8.87 -3.45 -5.56 19 May 2019 1014.04 1012.65 -1.05 -3.74 -5.94 18 May 2019 1014.49 1011.55 10.82 -4.29 -6.33 17 May 2019 1014.27 1010.80 14.88 -4.93 -6.78 16 May 2019 1013.74 1011.85 2.78 -5.79 -7.22 15 May 2019 1013.99 1012.80 -2.59 -6.12 -7.41 14 May 2019 1013.40 1013.15 -9.79 -6.17 -7.60 13 May 2019 1013.23 1013.55 -14.15 -6.35 -7.77 12 May 2019 1013.29 1014.60 -21.74 -6.81 -7.87 11 May 2019 1013.09 1014.50 -22.50 -6.88 -7.84 10 May 2019 1012.54 1011.65 -4.88 -6.71 -7.68 9 May 2019 1011.36 1010.75 -7.03 -6.55 -7.65 8 May 2019 1010.13 1010.55 -14.92 -5.75 -7.69 7 May 2019 1010.34 1010.60 -13.69 -4.44 -7.61 6 May 2019 1011.67 1010.80 -5.04 -3.60 -7.44 5 May 2019 1012.81 1011.25 0.25 -2.97 -7.38 4 May 2019 1013.24 1011.65 0.48 -2.20 -7.39 3 May 2019 1013.43 1011.90 0.02 -1.64 -7.39 2 May 2019 1013.61 1010.55 11.74 -1.32 -7.44 1 May 2019 1012.41 1009.70 9.06 -1.99 -7.49 Near Gallup, NM....May 20th.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 Colder water is surfacing in the Eastern zones. Nino 3.4 still in El Nino territory.

Been a long time since I can remember that much cold water off the coast of Western Mexico. If the PDO is warm in Mar-Aug (and it looks like it will be), with Nino 1.2 near normal that has some interesting implications for next year. The PDO was kind of a mess for the entire Oct-Mar period.

Local weather office is warming about high run off on the Rio Grande into June for the Rio Grande Valley in New Mexico, highest since 2005. More snow coming this week, with rains too. Doesn't look like Albuquerque will hit 90F for at least another week. Last year first 90F was on 5/8, this year, at least two weeks later. Late May is typically when the first 90F happens - will be interesting to see if we can make it into June without reaching 90F. The Taos Powderhorn site at 11,000 feet above sea level is still reporting 67 inches of snow on May 18th, with more coming. Elephant Butte Water Level is up 40+ feet since last October, and the Rio Grande Compact restrictions are over with the lake well over 20% of capacity now. It may get to 30-35% by mid-June, up from 3% last October.

Subsurface now has more cold water than warm water it looks like. Last frame. Still looks like sometime in June or July we'll fall below +0.5C in Nino 3.4 at least for a few weeks and it may start in May. MAM will still be in El Nino territory, probably AMJ too, but MJJ? I lean toward neutral.

GFS is still showing a lot of snow through 5/24 for CO/NM and that is consistent with the big SOI drops of late which should put a storm in the SW.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO The PDO rapidly rose in April, but for Nov-Apr, the value was +0.51. My winter forecast from 10/12 assumed it would be +0.4. So my method of blend Mar-Aug PDO values with Nino 1.2 in Oct worked pretty well again. 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.052018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.522019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.662019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.462019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.372019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 Also, the Jamstec doesn't have a La Nina coming online anytime soon, but it does show a decay from El Nino to La Nina conditions in Summer. Has the US very hot the next three seasons, outside the SE in winter 2019-20.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 Some weakening at the surface as the cold pool expands. SOI/MJO may be favorable for a rebound soon, we'll see. I went with this for Summer - whether the El Nino lasts or not officially, the long-lead correlation between MAM in Nino 3.4 and July-Sept US temps are pretty strong in some areas. https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt

Looking at the forecast from last May, the European did pretty well, but the ENSO tended to come in on the low side of the plume. That's my guess for the next few months, given how April verified. I think there is one or two months mid-Summer with a +0.5C or so reading, and then maybe a rebound later on. If you look on Tropical Tidbits, there is definitely some thinning of the unusual warmth in Nino 3.4, at least for now. A low point around late May to June and then a gradual rebound in July is what I'd go with given this -

Lots of snow in northern New Mexico overnight. My high tomorrow is forecast to be about 53F in Albuquerque - literally 40F or so colder than last year. Angel Fire had 18" at the base, 24" at the summit.

I honestly don't have a good read on the Fall yet. I think there will be some weakening for the next 4-6 weeks in an ONI sense, and then the event may re-develop. A lot of back to back El Nino winters see a brief return to Neutral SSTs in Summer or early Fall, 1976-77 / 1977-78, or 1968-69 / 1969-70 for example. Others keep on trucking like 2014-15, 2015-16, 1986-87, 1987-88 without a break, although 1987-88 was cold pretty early on below the surface in the 100-180W zone ahead of the big 1988 La Nina. The six month AMO value for Nov-Apr did come in around +0.00, which is one of the reasons the country ended up so wet in recent months. Last time that happened was before May 2015, which (at the time) was the wettest month on record.

It's possible we aren't, but I know through Oct 2018, 50-months in a row had seen y/y declines, and in the past six months four months are up y/y by small amounts. I think it be about flat to erratically up for a bit. The last absolute minimum was right 2/2009 but sometimes the solar cycles are 10 years, 12, 9, or 13, and not 11. I've been pretty happy with the pattern overall, we're coming up on our 8th month in a row with y/y declines in monthly high temperatures, almost unheard of in the last 100 years. The mountains still look white when I drive in to work, as they have since October. Here is a look at Taos Powderhorn y/y - the giant spike was the "Kansas Hurricane" / Bomb Cyclone of mid-March. Generally it does tend to be warm or dry here when the mountains retain substantial snow into June.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Cold water below the surface is expanding, and net subsurface heat continues to decline toward 0. Expecting ONI El Nino conditions (+0.5C v. long-term averages in Nino 3.4) to end by July.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 ONI update. Monthlies came in a bit lower than I thought, but still near the 28.6C on the weeklies. 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it. SST 3.4 Feb Mar Apr 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1966 27.55 28.21 28.16 1987 27.88 28.27 28.39 1992 28.53 28.66 29.02 1993 27.16 27.67 28.41 2015 27.17 27.75 28.52 Mean 27.64 28.13 28.44 2019 27.48 28.13 28.46

The subsurface numbers for April came in at +0.65 - way day from prior months but still pretty positive. The six closest objective subsurface matches for Feb-Apr look almost identical to the Canadian temperature forecast in May, so that's likely a good forecast. I'll post my Summer forecast in here around 5/10, but I think 1992/1993 need to be included as analogs given that April 1992 is the warmest Nino 3.4 reading on record (29.0C), and 1993 had all the flooding in the Plains, as well as a similar strength storm to the record-setting storm over KS/CO/NM in mid-March. May 2019 could end up substantially warmer in Nino 3.4 than Springs after the Super Ninos like 1983, 1998, 2016. Solar activity is still low but it does seem to be climbing now, with most recent months now up y/y. That has some implications for next year too. March/April warmth in Nino 3.4 are both very strong warm signals for the Southeast US in July.

I haven't looked for the Front Range, but if you turn last snowfall dates into data here, there is a definitely a meaningfully higher cluster of late snows in low-solar years. The effect peaks if you use 55-sunspots per year, July-June, above/below, and then look at last snowfall dates. Even in Albuquerque there is a ~33% frequency of measurable snow after 4/12 in low solar years, only ~9% in all others, and both data sets have over 30 years at the same location. We had snow here on 4/29/17 during the late morning, around 11 am. Snow was so heavy on the other side of the mountains it took out trees. If you use a difference in proportions test, you get a p value of around 0.01 for the hypothesis that the late snows are equally frequent in high / low solar years...so I reject it. I'd be very curious to see snow maps for the 4/29/17 blizzard and the current storm side by side. It is almost to the day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/05/01/western-plains-blinded-by-historic-late-spring-blizzard-photos/

Canadian trended much colder for the West in May. Has El Nino into next winter.

The newest Canadian run has El Nino continuing into next winter. It also shifted to a dramatically colder May in the Western half of the US. Has it as a basin-wide event now, instead of an east-central El Nino

Pretty happy with my Spring Outlook overall - let's see how I do in May.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 24APR2019 25.2 0.1 28.3 0.9 28.7 0.9 29.2 0.7 A 28.6C April in Nino 3.4 is pretty impressive. Here is a look at 2016 for comparison - barely warmer despite a much greater winter peak. 06APR2016 27.1 1.3 28.8 1.4 28.9 1.3 29.3 0.9 13APR2016 25.6 0.1 28.6 1.2 29.1 1.3 29.3 0.8 20APR2016 24.7-0.6 28.0 0.6 28.9 1.1 29.4 0.8 27APR2016 24.7-0.3 27.7 0.4 28.7 0.8 29.5 0.9 Warmer than April 2010 in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 too. 07APR2010 26.0 0.3 28.1 0.7 28.4 0.8 29.3 0.9 14APR2010 26.6 1.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.7 29.2 0.7 21APR2010 26.0 0.8 28.0 0.6 28.4 0.6 29.2 0.7 28APR2010 25.2 0.3 27.8 0.4 28.2 0.4 29.3 0.7

This winter/spring makes me think that "atmospheric" El Nino (SOI, etc) matters more for the Eastern US than "ocean El Nino" (ONI, SSTs, PDO, etc). Will be interesting to see if there are more disjointed El Ninos (by SOI v. SST) like this in the future. In the 1930s, during the Dustbowl, there were years that tried to be El Ninos during low-solar, warm AMO periods that ended up with huge cold snaps in the West and Plains, I wonder if that's going to become more common again. The 2017-18 cold season was an unusually strong East-based La Nina like 1933-34 was (Nino 1.2 coldest in over 30 years during US winter for a few months), during a very low-solar period (similar AMO seasons too, even for hurricanes).

Doesn't look a La Nina is coming soon to me, but I do think a steady decline to Neutral conditions is pretty likely into late Summer or Fall now.

Amazing how much big storms in Spring help with the snow pack.

The flow on the Rio Grande River is currently around 10x higher than last April in parts of New Mexico. This time last year, the riverbed of the Rio Grande south of Socorro was sandy, the edges of its channel strewn with desiccated fish. Even through Albuquerque, the state’s largest river was flowing at just about 400 cubic feet per second, exposing long sandbars and running just inches deep. This year, the Middle Rio Grande is booming, nearly ten times higher than it was last April—and it’s still rising. Running bank-to-bank, the river’s waters are lapping up over low spots along the bank, nourishing trees and grasses, replenishing groundwater and creating much-needed habitat for young fish and other creatures. Combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo is about 324,000 acre feet as of Thursday, or roughly 14 percent capacity. Last fall, storage in the two reservoirs dropped below three percent. Levels in those two reservoirs matter not only to downstream water users, but also those upstream along the Rio Grande. Since last May, New Mexico has had to abide by Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact of 1938. When combined storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs drops below 400,000 acre feet, Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any of the upstream reservoirs built after 1929. This includes Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs in New Mexico. Now, water managers expect that New Mexico will be out of Article VII restrictions in mid-May. Once that happens, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which supplies water to irrigators in the Albuquerque area, can start holding water in upstream reservoirs. They’re expecting to store about 40,000 acre-feet of water before water levels drop again later this year. http://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/04/26/rio-grande-roars-to-life-with-runoff/

These maps aren't perfect, but the severe winter for snow I imagined in the Plains largely developed as forecast - eastern Dakotas got smoked. Snow pack is excellent throughout most of the West too.