raindancewx

When I say "harder than last year", I base that off the fact there is no low-solar Neutral year since 1952-53. The closest, arguably are 2016-17, 2012-13, and 2003-04 in the last 20 years, but the 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 which doesn't look likely at the moment, and the others had solar activity. I think you could see a winter with weak and erratic tropical forcing - so then the question becomes what takes over? The PDO is positive but it still kind of screwed up and not likely to get to 2014-15 levels (+2.07 for Nov-Apr) which is strongly correlated with cold in the SE US. I tend to align observed US weather with global oscillations in the tropics to "match" initial conditions. Summer is going as I expected more or less - I thought some Eastern areas of the US would be +3 to +5 in July, after a fairly cold June nationally, and I had the West cold in July (although not where I am - had us warm). May-July -NAO is a weak warm signal in Fall for the West and NE. Will be interesting to see if the MJO cooperates. Last Fall, we had a very warm September and then a very cold Oct-Nov in the SW. But you can see that is unlikely this year, at least in Arizona where the -NAO in MJJ is a big deal for Fall.

I had a relatively low snow totals for the NE coast in my winter forecast last October, based on the premise that nearly all low-solar El Ninos see below average snow from Boston to Philadelphia back to the 1800s. Billings and much of the Northern Plains had one of their all-time cold months in February 2019, which isn't what I forecast, but my blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 was pretty close from about 12/1-1/31, really even through 2/10. The severe cold in the Plains and West lasted too long in February though. Snowfall was heavy in the West, downwind of the Lakes in some areas and in the Plains - and I had that forecast too. One thing I can say for this winter, with relatively high confidence: it is very rare to get even three very cold winters in Montana and the Dakotas, as we have seen in some areas for 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19. Billings finished around 4F below the 1951-2010 average high in all three DJF seasons. Last time you had three severely cold winters in a row there was 1970-71, 1971-72, 1972-73. (1970 and 2016 were both after two El Ninos in a row, 1970, 1971, 1972 is a La/La/El sequence like 2016/2017/2018). Back to the 1930s, I can't find four severely cold winters in a row like that in that part of the US. It could still be 1-2F below normal, but you really have to bet on a warmer winter up there at this point, which has some interesting implications about the US pattern. 2018-19 was well on its way to being warm in Montana through January, but the average high in February 2019 was like 22F or something below average in Billings, coldest February since 1936 (another year with some very impressive Summer heat). A lot of years with impressive heat waves in Western Europe or the Eastern US during Summer actually end up cold somewhere in the West. The 20 hottest average high Summers in Philadelphia include winters many winters in the West that have at least brief periods of record/near record in the West.

Hello... Newman! I like 1966 as a Summer analog. I used 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend in my Summer forecast from May linked a few pages ago. Composite July had a cool West / hot East, which looks about right. 1992-93 stayed in El Nino territory pretty late into the year, before SSTs fell off briefly for winter, and then warmed in Spring. The new Canadian should be out next week. Will be interesting to see what it has. The SST depictions start to become much better for winter in August. My guess is this winter will actually be much harder to forecast than last year. Low-solar winters, following a El Nino winter, that are not El Ninos are a pretty interesting group since 1930: 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Some really interesting winters in the West in those years.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 Warmth continues to thin in the Eastern Nino zones. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for PDO remained pretty positive in June too, by the way - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 A lot of the models have winter something like a cold Nino 1.2/3, flat Nino 3.4, warm Nino 4, with low solar, a warm Atlantic, a positive PDO, and it would be a winter following an El Nino. I think a blend of low-solar West-based El Ninos (2004, 2009), a Neutral (2003), and low solar La Ninas with a positive PDO (1984, 2016) has some merit if we have Neutral conditions. Also threw in 2007 (low solar, major La Nina) to lower the overall temperatures in the Tropical Pacific. That blend matches my weather locally fairly well for June/July (cold then warm) and seems to look like what the models currently have for winter. Looks OK for things like the QBO too. The Summer of 2012 had a big -NAO period, and then the cold went into the West. That is what the Jamstec shows, and what you get if you map the years I blended. These aren't my analogs, but this is the time of year I start to test matches for winter. The Jamstec kind of looks like a slightly warmed up version of 2012-13 in the Tropics, with a positive PDO and lower solar. If its SST depiction is correct (it probably isn't yet), the temperature idea isn't crazy given the SST look.

My point is that the ACE Index is a pretty good indicator for whether the SW is warm, average or even cool in a La Nina for highs - which gives ideas about the overall setup. Just as with El Ninos, I don't find much (any) correlation between SSTs/ONI/SSTA in Nino 3.4 in winter and highs in the SW. But things that happen coinciding with the ENSO phase do matter quite a bit. As an indicator, ACE actually beats winter or cold season AMO values in La Ninas. July still looks like my Summer analogs which assumed the El Nino would last deep into Spring or even Summer - The waters by South America are much colder than in 2017 - presumably they'll spread West with time as the last bit of warmth thins out around 170W? The Jamstec has a very cold Nino 1.2/3 in Fall, and then it warms up there as the coldest anomalies shift West.

In La Nina winters, the Atlantic ACE index is one of the strongest indicators I can find for whether the SW will be hot or not. The years when your deity of choice sends out hurricane after hurricane to ravage the shoreline from coast to coast are absolutely bone dry and severely hot in the SW US. 1933-34 (the epitome of the Dustbowl) and 2005-06, the closest year to the Dustbowl pattern in the last 20 years, both had ACE indexes of over 250 - with record heat and less than a quarter inch of precipitation in Albuquerque. The 2017-18 year was no slouch either, ACE was 225, and we roasted, but the great SOI crash of February 2018 did kind of save that winter from record heat and dryness. Right now, the ACE index is under 5 for the season - http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ Above 125, all our La Nina winter are warmer than average (49.5F).

I've been attempting to refine my methods for predicting high temperatures anomalies in the SW in La Ninas. It looks like the ACE Index in the Atlantic is a pretty strong indicator. Historically severe Atlantic hurricane seasons, in La Ninas, tend to be very hot, dry winters in Albuquerque. I'm not even convinced this will be a La Nina, but just for reference, I thought this was interesting - the three hottest La Ninas were all absolutely terrible, life destroying hurricane seasons - 1933, 2005, 2017. The two La Ninas over 250 on the Ace Index are 2005-06 and 1933-34 - essentially low-solar, Dust Bowl BS patterns in each case.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 07JUN2017 23.1-0.1 26.9 0.3 28.1 0.4 29.3 0.5 14JUN2017 22.9 0.0 26.7 0.2 28.2 0.5 29.4 0.6 21JUN2017 22.9 0.3 26.7 0.4 28.3 0.7 29.5 0.7 28JUN2017 22.8 0.4 26.5 0.4 28.1 0.7 29.4 0.6 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 08JUN2016 23.7 0.6 26.6 0.0 27.8 0.1 29.5 0.6 15JUN2016 23.3 0.4 26.6 0.2 27.8 0.2 29.5 0.7 22JUN2016 22.4-0.1 25.9-0.3 27.2-0.4 29.3 0.5 29JUN2016 22.6 0.4 25.9-0.1 27.1-0.4 29.1 0.3 06JUL2016 22.2 0.2 25.5-0.4 27.0-0.4 29.1 0.3 13JUL2016 21.8 0.0 25.1-0.6 26.7-0.6 29.1 0.3 Nino 3.4 is around 28.2C this May-July, v. 27.6C last May-July - favoring a wetter far southern US. Not much signal for winter from the -NAO in May-July.

Streak of colder year/year highs looks like it may end this July. May continue - will be close. From Oct 2018 to June 2019, each month was colder than Oct 2017 to June 2018. July 2018 had a high of 92F. We're below that now, but a fair number of mid-90s look likely for the next week to ten days.

The new Jamstec has a flat-Neutral winter now, with the eastern zones pretty cold. It has the SW cold, US warm. It looks a bit like a blend of 1931, 1987, 2004, 2004, 2016, 2017, 2017 for the oceans and US (a small pool of near average to slightly cool in the SW with a warm US). Something relevant will change by October, but low-solar Neutrals actually are pretty cold in the SW typically. Worth noting: in 2017, it didn't see a La Nina until September 2017. The July forecast is actually pretty close to the May forecast though, unlike in 2017, when the Spring outlook consistently had a moderate El Nino. The model also has a very hot Fall nationally - hottest Fall forecast I've seen from it actually.

Finally topped 95F today in Albuquerque - pretty late for that to happen for the first time in a calendar year. Have yet to hit 100F officially. Some areas in town surely did today though.

European has abandoned El Nino chances for winter. My personal, totally subjective odds are at 65% Neutral, 30% La Nina, 5% El Nino at this point. The subsurface, if you look back at July 2017 on the animations I post, is simultaneously warmer and cooler than July 2019. Nino 3 is already in La Nina territory this July on Tropical Tidbits, but Nino 3.4 is still warm in the western areas - I think that general look will hold for a while. You can think of it as an "east-based" cold Neutral? That's what I like for winter. Don't see the heat in Nino 4 going anywhere soon, and it should hold up Nino 3.4. A Neutral or La Nina winter, after an El Nino, with low-solar conditions and the east (Nino 1.2/3) colder than the west (Nino 3.4/4) is a pretty interesting winter. Low-solar, non-El Nino winters, after an El Nino include 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Winters a year after an El Nino tend to be titled toward warmth and wetness. Part of why I'm skeptical of a La Nina for this winter is how positive the PDO has become since April - very different from 2017 which had a similar subsurface and Nino 3.4 SST reading in June.

The subsurface for June 2019 was +0.24. For 1979-2018, that typically meant Neutral in winter, but you can see a few La Nina and El Ninos - weak - in there too. Subsurface becomes a much better indicator in September, the r-squared approaches 0.75. June 2017 subsurface was almost identical to this year, but followed a La Nina. Last year, June was +0.86. 100-180W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 0.39 0.97 0.31 -0.21 0.06 0.35 0.19 0.49 0.91 0.63 1.06 0.92 1980 0.83 0.62 0.50 0.82 1.14 1.17 0.27 0.04 -0.26 0.02 0.35 0.61 1981 0.36 0.30 1.02 0.77 0.24 -0.22 -0.66 -0.59 0.14 0.25 0.02 -0.22 1982 0.21 0.56 0.92 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.11 1.61 1.86 2.07 1.92 1.45 1983 0.05 -0.81 -0.95 0.23 -0.32 -1.12 -1.51 -1.66 -2.15 -2.25 -1.81 -1.36 1984 -0.87 -0.90 -0.92 -0.77 -1.11 -1.15 -0.25 -0.22 -0.37 -0.93 -0.63 -0.35 1985 -0.16 -0.34 -0.65 -0.24 0.09 -0.02 -0.08 0.24 -0.20 -0.26 0.11 0.27 1986 0.21 0.41 0.46 -0.02 0.31 0.80 0.45 0.50 0.65 0.95 0.52 0.97 1987 1.22 0.17 0.60 0.31 0.58 0.37 -0.10 0.20 -0.25 -0.17 -0.37 -0.67 1988 -0.45 -0.88 -1.31 -1.76 -1.55 -1.22 -0.87 -0.72 -1.07 -2.01 -2.04 -1.65 1989 -0.89 -0.11 0.42 0.50 0.61 0.87 0.78 0.35 0.26 -0.02 -0.22 0.64 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.65 0.05 -0.30 0.27 0.46 0.25 0.50 0.38 0.88 1991 0.92 0.29 0.18 0.80 0.76 0.77 0.73 0.49 0.60 1.41 1.22 1.71 1992 1.57 1.98 0.83 0.38 -0.32 -0.78 -0.73 -0.73 -0.56 -0.50 -0.27 0.19 1993 0.27 0.28 0.56 0.81 0.42 -0.29 -0.40 -0.38 0.12 0.10 0.02 -0.33 1994 -0.62 -0.60 -0.40 -0.14 0.16 0.14 0.02 0.67 0.70 1.12 1.16 0.80 1995 0.51 0.13 -0.44 -0.60 -0.44 -0.14 -0.44 -0.84 -1.20 -1.03 -0.86 -0.84 1996 -0.29 -0.12 0.05 0.01 -0.16 0.17 -0.18 -0.35 -0.46 -0.30 -0.47 -0.30 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 2.17 2.01 2.25 1.83 1.79 2.38 2.56 2.30 1.02 1998 0.00 -0.38 -0.61 -1.06 -1.75 -2.16 -2.29 -2.46 -2.15 -2.35 -2.33 -2.18 1999 -1.80 -1.61 -0.99 -0.91 -0.81 -0.52 -0.64 -1.21 -1.27 -1.07 -1.48 -1.55 2000 -1.28 -0.91 -0.64 -0.31 -0.18 0.08 0.03 0.00 -0.12 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2001 -0.56 -0.63 -0.29 0.26 0.11 0.46 0.61 0.12 0.35 0.28 0.22 0.17 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 0.32 0.07 0.67 0.73 1.05 1.41 1.72 1.58 0.74 2003 0.27 -0.11 -0.06 -0.49 -0.85 0.13 0.53 0.03 0.10 0.34 0.54 0.17 2004 0.05 0.19 -0.10 0.21 0.30 0.04 0.83 0.78 0.87 0.61 0.78 0.79 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.11 -0.20 -0.42 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 -0.74 2006 -0.97 -0.92 -0.29 0.42 0.54 0.76 0.73 1.05 1.13 0.80 1.35 0.86 2007 -0.46 -0.77 -0.72 -0.59 -0.58 -0.18 -0.48 -0.68 -1.03 -1.19 -1.19 -1.08 2008 -1.50 -1.20 -0.45 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.42 -0.15 -0.69 -0.48 -0.77 -1.44 2009 -1.08 -0.50 0.08 0.65 0.87 1.13 1.05 0.79 0.76 1.04 1.75 1.36 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 -0.06 -1.00 -1.34 -1.36 -1.74 -1.93 -1.92 -1.64 -1.56 2011 -1.27 -0.22 0.50 0.58 0.47 0.39 0.06 -0.54 -1.01 -1.26 -0.92 -1.07 2012 -1.17 -0.46 0.00 0.27 0.47 0.56 0.82 0.83 0.36 0.40 0.34 -0.27 2013 -0.59 -0.17 0.06 -0.06 -0.14 0.26 0.41 0.32 0.38 0.15 0.62 0.26 2014 -0.33 0.39 1.60 1.41 0.95 0.27 -0.18 0.39 0.64 0.53 0.90 0.54 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 1.74 1.53 1.51 1.69 1.97 1.80 1.91 1.78 1.20 2016 1.25 0.56 -0.31 -0.88 -1.15 -1.05 -0.76 -0.71 -0.71 -0.92 -0.62 -0.24 2017 0.01 0.15 0.22 0.06 0.30 0.22 0.16 -0.40 -0.79 -0.97 -0.84 -0.75 2018 -0.16 -0.11 0.51 0.80 0.88 0.86 0.81 0.81 1.12 1.59 1.36 1.06 2019 0.59 0.94 1.19 0.41 0.07 0.24

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 Heat is draining West in the Nino zones? On the subsurface data, the weekly value is still neutral. In 2016, Nino 3.4 was already in La Nina territory by this point, with Nino 1.2 quite warm still. Some very early ideas for winter - will change several times by October 10 - AMO and PDO both more positive than last year. - Eastern Tropical Pacific colder than Western Tropical Pacific. - Low Solar - how low is an open question. - If the -NAO lasts all of July, that is a fairly strong cold signal for the East in December. - Cold Junes highs are much more likely than other Junes to be followed by cold winter highs in the Southwest. In Albuquerque, 12/19 winters are 2F or more below the 100-year average high after a June that is cold. This is offset this year by the tendency for winters to be warm here a year after an El Nino.

You all should sneak away from your locations and find a way to go white water rafting on the Rio Grande River this year - conditions are amazing. Beautiful, cold level four rapids to cool you off from the dry 90 degree air. Anyway, my hunch is that the remaining warm pool and the incoming cool pool, at least for the short term, will lead to some, but not dramatic cooling. We'll see. They effectively look evenly matched for now.

ONI came in at +0.7C for Apr-Jun 2019. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Here are monthly SSTs - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.50 27.85 0.65 2019 6 28.25 27.65 0.60 My blend of 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 for Summer had June at 28.20C in Nino 3.4 2015 6 28.90 27.65 1.25 1993 6 28.08 27.60 0.48 1992 6 28.30 27.60 0.70 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 Analog Blend: 28.20C. Subsurface is fairly cold, but it is still warm near the surface and at the surface, so I think a slow cool down is likely for a few weeks at least.

Those images of Guadalajara are pretty impressive. That's one way to cool the ground for sure. Albuquerque just had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1998 - running nearly four degrees colder than last year so far.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 6/26 is only on this site for now - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C) YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2018 8 0.75 0.73 0.81 2018 9 0.88 0.93 0.98 2018 10 1.08 1.29 1.47 2018 11 0.97 1.20 1.25 2018 12 0.71 0.88 0.92 2019 1 0.53 0.62 0.59 2019 2 0.59 0.76 0.94 2019 3 0.70 0.91 1.19 2019 4 0.21 0.39 0.41 2019 5 0.01 0.09 0.07 2019 6 -0.06 0.09 0.28 Annualized solar activity came in at 5.5 sunspots for the July 2018-June 2019 period. The solar cycle is roughly an 11-year interval, and this period was weaker than 2007-08, which had 7.2 sunspots annualized. For my friends in Boston, I'd like to remind you if we somehow keep the El Nino (unlikely now?) and low solar (pretty likely) into next winter, it isn't historically a great setup for snowfall. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8

Canadian has a somewhat weaker El Nino in winter this run. Some big differences in the Canadian and CFS for July too. The CFS actually looks closer to what I expect. July looks like a derecho pattern.

El Nino looks pretty dead on Tropical Tidbits. Unfortunately for those of you in the South, a warm Nino 3.4 in March, April, May still is strongly correlated to a hot July, and the CFS has a pretty hot looking July now in the South. Canadian should be out with its new thoughts for weather and ENSO later tonight.

June 2019 is going to have one of the 20 coldest June highs since 1931 in Albuquerque, 9th month in a row with a year over year decline in high temperatures. Snow in the mountains on June 4th and June 17th. The high through 6/29 is 87.65F - long-term June average is a touch of 90.0F. Here are some years, after El Nino winters, with highs in the 86.9 - 88.9 range in Albuquerque - 1931, 1940, 1966, 1970, 1987, 1988, 1992, 2003. Blend of 1940/1992 isn't bad nationally. My Summer Analog blend from May 10 was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that is doing locally, for highs - Method 1 June July August September 1966 88.7 93.7 89.3 81.9 1966 88.7 93.7 89.3 81.9 1987 88.0 92.6 87.8 82.4 1992 87.8 90.5 88.6 85.0 1993 91.0 94.8 88.5 83.6 2015 90.8 88.4 91.5 86.2 Blend 89.2 92.3 89.2 83.5 I think I weighted 1966 twice in my blend, too heavily, but as a blend, it was the right idea nationally for June.

CPC changes its mind, but by subsurface conditions, or the current ONI baseline 2014-15 was an El Nino. If you use 26.5C, the 1951-2010 average in Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb, the SSTs qualify 2014-15 as an El Nino. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2014 10 27.16 26.75 0.40 2014 11 27.46 26.75 0.71 2014 12 27.32 26.65 0.66 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 2015 5 28.85 27.85 1.01

The 1991-92 El Nino lasted into Summer and the kind of fell apart in Fall. I've been looking at that year. AMJ this year is probably around +0.7C against the base CPC uses. I think a lot of people consider 1992-93 an El Nino but it wasn't in winter by ONI, and then mid-1993 was again for a bit. Since 1950, June has only been above 28.0C one time before going into a La Nina in DJF (SSTs of 26.0C for the following winter, or colder). So will be interesting to see what Nino 3.4 comes in at for June. In 2017, we went from 28.06C in June in Nino 3.4 to 25.72C in Nino 3.4 in DJF for 2017-18, that transition is similar to 1933 in the extended data, but there is no other year that goes that warm, to that cold since 1950. 1983 went from 28.27C in June to 26.0C in DJF 1983-84. If June finishes around 28.35C, that is +0.7C on the CPC standard for June. I kind of lean Neutral for winter, just because there is still some subsurface and surface warmth now, but there is definitely a fair amount of cold below the surface. It has been a while since we've had a Neutral. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 1991 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 1992 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Snow pack in this El Nino was much more durable than in recent El Ninos in the mountains of the Southwest -

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 Some weakening of the El Nino at the surface, particularly in Nino 3 in recent weeks. Subsurface heat from 100-180W is declining a bit on the ENSO weekly update too. June is still in El Nino territory. Nothing like 2015 though - 13MAY2015 26.4 2.1 28.2 1.1 28.8 1.0 29.8 1.1 20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1 27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2 10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1 17JUN2015 25.4 2.7 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.9 1.1 The 2015-16 El Nino was also dead already - 11MAY2016 24.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.4 0.6 29.4 0.6 18MAY2016 24.3 0.2 26.9-0.1 28.1 0.2 29.4 0.6 25MAY2016 24.0 0.2 26.6-0.3 27.7-0.1 29.4 0.6 01JUN2016 23.4 0.0 26.4-0.3 27.6-0.2 29.3 0.5 08JUN2016 23.7 0.6 26.6 0.0 27.8 0.1 29.5 0.6 15JUN2016 23.3 0.4 26.6 0.2 27.8 0.2 29.5 0.7 22JUN2016 22.4-0.1 25.9-0.3 27.2-0.4 29.3 0.5

I do think a lot of variability is still natural, how much is an open question. The Arctic is surely, what, half a degree to a degree warmer than in 2012 given that it is warming faster than the temperate zones? Something is counteracting that to change the patterns. Some of that is upper air patterns, but some of it is ocean temperature changes too. The AMO is not dramatically warmer anymore than it was in the prior peak of the AMO warm cycle. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data 1958 19.239 18.935 19.068 19.493 20.215 21.454 22.626 23.350 23.292 22.442 21.380 20.313 1959 19.293 18.863 18.700 19.146 20.024 21.176 22.433 23.203 23.208 22.405 21.248 20.206 1960 19.372 18.968 18.818 19.249 20.322 21.557 22.738 23.529 23.296 22.591 21.450 20.236 The prior peak produced AMO values in the 23.5-23.6C range in late Summer. We now get up to 23.8C, but the frequency of hitting 23.8C has been falling off in Aug/Sept since 2012, so I don't think I'm being too extreme in saying the AMO is holding back record low sea ice to some extent. The (black) ash landing on the highly reflective ice after the Arctic volcanic eruptions in 2011 couldn't have helped either. 2017 19.579 19.135 19.055 19.593 20.491 21.704 22.927 23.661 23.593 22.886 21.709 20.620 2018 19.529 18.974 19.022 19.376 20.179 21.387 22.645 23.467 23.408 22.599 21.240 20.199 2019 19.344 18.995 19.014 19.439 20.270 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 Presumably, we'll melt less ice if this coming in 3-5 years? 1963 19.361 18.925 18.871 19.264 19.942 21.199 22.439 23.128 22.891 22.231 21.150 20.046 1964 19.131 18.783 18.779 19.017 20.070 21.252 22.334 22.970 22.876 22.034 21.044 19.988 1965 19.011 18.587 18.665 19.069 19.934 21.124 22.292 22.997 22.876 22.060 20.937 19.98