raindancewx

QBO is still positive in October: +7.27 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data My analog blend has it at slightly below 0 for Dec-Feb, -6.77 or so. That's probably about right. Last year, the QBO tracked pretty similarly to 1994-95. No reason to expect a radical break from 1995 at this point. Should cross into negative territory on the monthly data in December or January. Something like 0-6 in Nov, -2 to +2 in Dec, -6 to 0 in Jan, -10 to -2 in Feb. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.9 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.4 -18.08 -9.86 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 -999 -999

One thing that concerns me this winter is that record cold in the orientation that occurred in October 2019 has occurred with the same blotch of warm waters in the Pacific in previous winters. I'm defining this blob as 150-180W, 30-60N, as opposed to 2013-14, which was 135-165W, 30-60N. See the heat shooting up to Ohio with the cold over Montana and the whole west cold? Look at this. 30-60N, 150-180W right? Both cases. Both periods, record cord in the West (cooler ring by Western North America around the warmth, with cold south of the equator too.) That 2013-14 setup was east of this year, and so the cold was centered east. The distance from where the cold is centered and where the blobs are centered is about 15-20 degrees E-W. So it makes sense that the blob in 2013-14 would feature severe cold in the Lakes, while the current one has focused more on Montana and Wyoming. This all assumes these warm patches matter, and that if they do, the current one will persist.

I keep seeing people referencing 2013...but the October pattern was far more amplified than that year. 2018 is not too far off in the East though for October. I saw this elsewhere:

Looks like the European was caught with its pants down in Nino 4 this month. Whole plume for Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 will likely shift up a bit this month. Nino 3.4 is likely about 27.3C for October - the Nino zone data for October will arrive this week. A 27.3C October is +0.55C on the CPC standard, but +0.8C against 1951-2010. CPC tends to "adjust" data for a month or two after it is in. Even so, ONI for Aug-Oct should be 26.97C or so, and the CPC base for that period is 26.82C, so it's back to +0.15C. The 1951-2010 average is 26.56C - so +0.42C - nearly back to El Nino already, more consistent with the SOI, which is also nearly El Nino for Aug-Oct (-7.03 for Aug-Oct).

I have mechanisms for estimating "snow ratios" in the West when I do my analogs, and yes, the general idea is relatively dry snow occurring fairly often. Think 22:1 ratios instead of 17:1 if 17:1 was your average.

Probably (Definitely?) won't get a 968 mb low out of it this time, but October was wetter than September again in Albuquerque. That has always preceded measurable precipitation in October back to 1931 (37/37 cases), including last year. Odds are always much better for a big wet March when October is wetter than September.

We've pulled ahead of the late/fake El Ninos now too. October looks nothing like 2012 for instance. Weaker than last year. North Pacific still neutral for the PDO zone. That cold water by Peru in October tends to rot away the warmth right along the coast of West Canada, as we've seen. Also, sunspots for the year ending October are down to 4.2 - still lower than the comparable time in the last cycle (year ending Oct 2008). The 12-month low last cycle was 2.2. Whether we go lower than that or not, I'd say its 50/50 we hit the 12-month low point of this cycle in the next six months.

Coldest October here since 1986 - 55.4F, around 2.5F below the past 100 years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt I actually couldn't get a good match on the Aug/Sept/Oct subsurface data this time - it kind of looks a blend of 1991 (big major warm up below the surface in October), but colder. Something like 1991, 1992, 1993 as a blend is kind of close, but still not great, for how it is behaving. The issue with the subsurface matching is that the subsurface was slightly cold in August, neutral (exactly 0) in September, and then very warm in October - that doesn't really exist in the data in a single year. You have to blend like crazy to get it. Subsurface data came in at +0.7 for 100-180W in October. That's always translated to an official El Nino since the subsurface data has been available in 1979. It's below last year, when the subsurface was +1.58 in October. The subsurface in October 2014 and other actual El Ninos was somewhat cooler than in October 2019. If you plug in +0.7 along the line, it implies a 27.1C El Nino, give or take about 0.6C, around 80% certainty (32/40) for the last 40 years.

I had 2009 as my top weighted analog this winter (3/10 of my blend), so its nice to see relatively close highs and snow in Stapleton. The cold Junes / warm late Summer / cold October is pretty interesting for NM and CO, it's not something that shows up a lot in the records. It seems to tie into year that have blocking but also "stuck" MJO patterns in the last 40 years. This winter seems like it could feature a lot of drier than normal snow across the West. I really don't have a strong precip signal in the data I look at, but snow still looks average to above average generally.

Cold mornings have arrived in greater frequency than my analogs depicted. Blending year with coldest October low is pretty predictive for number of lows <=32F here for the total of <=32F nights: I get 109, +/-24 using the last 30-years for the confidence interval, and 109, +/-27 using the last 90-years. Either way, anything above 118 would be most in lifetime. We finished with 97 last year, but only through 11/15. Looks like like we'll be at seven through 11/1.

The new Canadian run looks a bit more El Nino-y, especially north of the equator. Tropical Tidbits fixed its climatology (baseline for averages) so these maps work again. It has a warm US look. The move toward more precip in the SW is likely an indicator that it is starting to sense the warm Nino 3.4 The model doesn't have any long range seasonal skill at this range for winter. This is last year (warmest where it was coldest on Nov 1, 2018) The October forecast (cold West / warm South) from 9/30 was pretty good. The Oct 31 forecast for November has this - and its not dissimilar to the CFS or my November analogs. A -NAO favors a warm West in November. Most of my top winters are 0-2F above normal in November.

This October finished about 2F colder in Albuquerque than my analogs had it. I think it's going to finish with an average temperature of 55.4F for the city - coldest since 1986 if that is correct. It's a top 10-cold October here for the past 100 years. Also pretty sure that Jan-Oct is now running about 2F colder than in 2018 locally, which is a lot for a 10-month period, when there is only about six degrees of variation on an annual basis for the past 100-years, and that 2F drop is even after a very hot period in late Summer, mid-July to mid-Sept essentially. How did you fair in the local rankings for October in Colorado?

SOI should finish around -5 or -6 for October. 1951 is a top Aug-Oct match, which makes sense given that it looks like October. SOI Aug Sept Oct 2019 -3.1 -12.7 -5.0 1946 -4.0 -13.3 -12.3 1969 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 1990 -4.4 -7.3 -1.2 1951 -5.2 -11.2 -12.3 1987 -13.1 -10.6 -5.3 1972 -8.2 -14.1 -11.0 1972-73 is essentially the best physically possible pattern for the West, will be watching to see if it remains a strong match into November..

Since 1950, these are the Octobers with 27.0-27.6 Nino 3.4 monthly readings, since it looks like we finish with Nino 3.4 at 27.3C. Oct 3.4 1951 27.20 1957 27.42 1963 27.36 1969 27.34 1976 27.46 1977 27.35 1986 27.53 1991 27.58 1994 27.47 2003 27.14 2004 27.44 2006 27.41 2009 27.60 2012 26.98 2014 27.16 Of these, 1951 is easily closest to highs across the US. Then 1969 (right in the West but too cold in the South - no help moving the high from Camille?). 2004 and 1994 aren't super far off either (neither is last year, at 27.62C). 1957, 1976, 2006, 2009 are too cold. 1963, 1977, 1991, 2003, 2012, 2014 are kind of opposite, and a lot of the other years are just off in various ways. The El Ninos with the lowest annualized solar activity are 1953-54, 2009-10 and 2018-19 - very different winters, but we'll see. It's probably not great for a cold December in the East that Oct 1963 is relatively opposite of Oct 2019 nationally - I think the MJO must have gotten stuck in a warm phase back then, and Dec 1963 was the second coldest Eastern December since 1950. I think maybe compared to 1963, the MJO is off by 6-weeks, and compared to 2013, it's off by four weeks but we'll see. For highs locally, for June-Oct, 1948 is the closest match since 1931 - very hot July-Sept sandwiched between a cold June & October. I wouldn't even mention this normally, but that year went to ridiculous, stupid cold in the West in January, kind of like the recent pattern...but in January and for a much longer period than the recent cold snap. I'll be watching for that. I sincerely doubt January 1949 will come to fruition. But I keep expecting a more recent year to replace 1948 as the best match to highs and it hasn't happened yet. 1948 keeps building its lead over every other year back to 1931.

You can use this site for now - this is essentially the http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ site, but it is still up and working. http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

It's like magic. I had this map in my forecast from 10/10 (see page 14). https://t.co/1yr0fAbUKK?amp=1 Now look at what the CFS has for November 2019. The CFS actually has decent skill for the coming month just before it start Also, this looks like an El Nino on the CFS now. Levi fixed his Canadian climatology issue so the Canadian update should be interesting on Halloween (I'll be here to avoid the record cold).

From the NWS ABQ Office: ...RECORD COLD THIS WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... Unseasonable to record breaking cold temperatures will dominate northern and central New Mexico this week, as northerly upper winds reinforce a modified Arctic airmass in place over the region. Much of the northeast third of the state will see near record to record low temperatures tonight, including Santa Fe, Las Vegas, Raton, Clayton and Tucumcari. Other locales will see overnight low temperatures 5-15 degrees colder than normal for late October. Highs Tuesday will warm over today`s readings but it will get even colder Tuesday night and Wednesday as another modified Arctic blast surges into New Mexico on gusty north winds. Wednesday`s highs will be 25-40 degrees colder than normal, with highs ranging from the 20s and 30s east and north to mostly 40s southwest. In addition to the cold, freezing drizzle, freezing fog and light snow will develop over the east Tuesday night and Wednesday. This includes the Interstate 40 corridor from Clines Corners to the Texas border, Interstate 25 from Glorieta Pass to Raton Pass, and U.S. 64 from Raton to Capulin. While ice and snow accumulations are expected to be minimal, the travel impacts will be hazardous. Wednesday night will feature mid winter like temperatures, with near record to record lows ranging from around 20 degrees below zero to the single digits above zero across most of the north with teens south. Wind chill readings across north central and northeast New Mexico will vary from near zero to about 30 degrees below zero.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 Subsurface heat is up again on the ENSO weekly PDF. Five weeks in a row of El Nino level heat in Nino 3.4. CPC uses 26.75C as the baseline, and Nino 3.4 is around 27.3C. Nino 1.2 is around 20.0C for October on the weeklies. I don't think the monthly number will be that low for Nino 1.2 - but if it comes in under 20.0C that is a strong indicator since 1950 that the PDO will finish below 0 for Nov-Apr (17/18 cases). Definitely less basin wide than last year and 2014-15 so far. Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 are actually warmer than 2014 now for what its worth, since Oct 2014 came in at 27.16C in Nino 3.4. 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 15OCT2014 21.5 0.7 25.5 0.5 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7 22OCT2014 21.8 0.8 25.8 0.8 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7

I keep seeing people referencing 2013 as an analog because of the blob, but the pattern nationally really is closer in the East so far to 2018 than to 2013, which to me implies it isn't much of a factor due to differences in the PDO structure. That light blue area should end up very close to Mexico by the end of October 2019, but the issue with both years is they were too cold in the SW and too warm in the NW. Nino 3.4 readings will be similar in October 2014 and 2019, but the US pattern is completely different. The strongest response for US temps to winter from the PDO are in the NW US and SE US. So the very cold NW / very warm SE October has some resemblance to a -PDO for Winter 2019-20, while the very warm NW / relatively cold SE in 2014 has some resemblance to what would become the super positive PDO winter of 2014-15, when the PDO was +2.07 for Nov-Apr (sort of the PDO equivalent of a Super El Nino). The October 2014 'cold' spot is right where the deep purples are for the winter correlation.

January 1952 is like +7F in the SE, with December/February not much better. I don't think 1951-52 will hold up real well outside Fall though. Nino 4 is much warmer than in 1951, and like you said, the PDO crashed hard to well below 0 by December 1951, which is correlated to strong winter heat for the South. In Fall/Spring, I generally weight the PDO/AMO higher, with the prior year ONI, solar, and some other things less. As solar/ONI prior and the others become more important, 1951 should fall of as a match. I looked earlier - the best October matches to this October in an El Nino since 1930 are: 1939, 1941, 1951, 1969, 1994. Something like 2014 is relatively opposite, with places in the Northwest out by close to 20 degrees compared to what has happened this October, despite similar Nino 3.4 temps.

The warmth is still moving East. Really not that different from last year. Main difference is there is more cold water around this year.

October 1951 is honestly shockingly close to October 2019 for temperatures nationally - one of the best single year analog matches I've seen in a few years. Oct 1951 was a 27.2C El Nino in Nino 3.4, but it was an East-based El Nino by this point. In the West, the cold should actually push further South than 1951 by the end of the month. Areas near the Mexican border in New Mexico will be 25-30F outside the cities tomorrow morning - very cold for October that far south at fairly low elevations.

Snow in Santa Fe...low 50s in Albuquerque today. Amazing how sharp the cut offs can be in Fall and Spring systems that don't quite dive far enough south.

Last year behaved like Neutral PDO El Nino, which dumps cold in the West and Plains typically. I use 0, +/-0.5 for Nov-Apr, for the PDO as that designation. The composite is basically the same post 1950 (kind of looks like this October which is interesting). Box C (the waters by the Philippines) in the Modoki calculation is fairly strongly correlated to colder Western winters, and that zone has been relatively cold compared to recent years. Low solar El Ninos also tend to be less reliably "back-loaded" for the East in February - look at February 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2019 - definitely a variety there compared to the high solar El Nino February years. Our high terrain never stopped being cold this year, a lot of the populated towns still had frosts in June, July and August. At this point, things look at least somewhat promising for the West. Here are some pictures from New Mexico today - Angel Fire Ski Resort Red River -