raindancewx

The CFS is still showing a +SOI look for December. Part of me thinks some kind of reigning in of the subtropical jet stream is due. November 2019 has just topped 1991 to become the wettest November in over 100 years in Albuquerque - and it happened in essentially two weeks.

I had 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard with the Nov 27-28 storm. The airport had 3.9". The general totals city wide seem to have been 4-8 inches. Mountain snow pack is in excellent shape as of this morning.

SOI is -9.8 for the past 30-days, -9.3 for the past 90 days, and -10 for November to date. I've got 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard, with near record precipitation for November (1.65") through 11 am 11/28. A lot of that near record precipitation is snow...which is certainly more of an El Nino thing than a Neutral thing here - PDO still looks somewhat negative to me for November - you can have warm waters on the NW North America coast if they are relatively cold compared to waters off to their West and have a -PDO month. It's a relational calculation, not absolute like ENSO, where warm is El Nino, cold is La Nina. Subsurface still looks warm to me. The little cold pocket is going to get its ass kicked in the coming weeks. The warm waters continue to surface by Peru as we transition out of the Modoki El Nino to a basin wide event.

Definitely a real snow storm here - this is I-25 and Paseo Random Twitter pics -

Albuquerque went from around 40F with a 12F dew point at 2 pm, to about 31F with a 25F dew point at 7:30, thanks to the magic of evaporative cooling. Some accumulating snow already where I am, with the airport already seeing some too officially.

For anyone curious, here is a list of the major Indian Ocean Dipole events in Sept-Nov for 1880-2004. This is built into my analog system when I look at the Pacific to some extent, although I don't give it much weight in winter, except as a tie-breaker. It's more important in Fall. Part of how I had 1994 last year. https://iri.columbia.edu/~blyon/REFERENCES/P38.pdf

Weaker and more West based than last year, but certainly a Modoki El Nino at least for Fall (we seem to be transitioning to a basin-wide look though for actual winter). Japan uses 165E-140W, 10N-10S as their Nino 3.4 ("Box A") - that zone is definitely in an El Nino look. The waters by Peru are colder too. So more of a Modoki than last year. Will be curious to see if the +SOI the CFS continues to show for December has to do with the Indian Ocean Dipole flipping this month, hard to get the Australia part of the +SOI without that.

I went with 1-4", 2-5", 4-8" for Albuquerque by elevation Wed-Thu tentatively - but may change tomorrow. The models all have at least some kind of transition to snow in the city late, it's just how quickly, and how much moisture. European keeps showing 6-12" for the whole city, which I think is way too high for most. NAM has 1-4" which I think is probably too low for some areas. GFS is 0-1", with hardly any rain even.

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now. SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure. Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9 21NOV2018 22.6 0.8 26.3 1.3 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.0

This would be a good little storm for Albuquerque - 24 hours through Thanksgiving Morning.

Some re-development of the warmth below the surface, but that little cold area may make it up anyway. That's kind of what happened in 1992-93, which was very similar to this year in June-Sept at the surface, before a small cold area showed up Nino 3.4 at the surface in winter. Then, in early 1993, more warmth surfaced and El Nino returned.

CFS is starting to go to my December forecast, with a cold center of the US. Here is the scary thing: it has a big +SOI (La Nina) in December. That happened last year. If it happens again, the South will roast later in the winter. See how the red is by 150W, 15S and the blue is by Australia around 15S? That's where Darwin & Tahiti are. In December 2018, Darwin was 1006.2 MB, and Tahiti was 1011.7 MB for a +9.14 SOI. Map below has ~1006 for Darwin and ~1012 for Tahiti.

Not looking great for people forecasting a dry winter in the Southwest. If the storm forecast over NM verifies next week, we may have record November precipitation for Albuquerque for the last 100 years. Already at 1.25" (average is 0.46"), and the record is 1.93". Already top five for wetness. Long-term, November precipitation tends to indicate January precipitation here fairly well too. Not to mention the fact that May precipitation here is highly correlated (r-squared near 0.3) to Nov-Jan precipitation totals here. Wet May here favors warm East/tornado patterns fairly often. Here is the composite for what follows after particularly wet Novembers in Albuquerque. It stays wet. Pretty El Nino-y too, which is shocking. It's not really that surprising though, this has been signaled since September - a big -SOI September is strongly correlated to a very wet January in the West, especially Northern California.

Gary Lezak winter forecast is supposed to be out next week. It's been pretty cold Oct-Nov in Missouri/Kansas, which is where is I had the cold centered in winter, I imagine he'll have something similar since he looks at Fall patterns for the LRC. Might not be super wet though.

One thing that I can't help but notice with last Fall is how well each two week period corresponded to Winter 2018-19. Will be very interesting to see if that happens again with some similar features (AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, MJO timing) to last year. H1 October was February - not as extreme, but close (a lot of the blue areas in Feb were 10-25 below average) In December, the placement was somewhat different, but the cold West Texas warm North idea was there - its just the heat moved East. If the heat had been centered a bit East over ND in H2 October, the cold would have shot up into the West. The first half of November looked like a de-amplified January, with warm coasts and a much colder middle of the US. If the timing relationships were to hold, January & February would be the similar months to last year. December would be very different - with the center of the US very cold, warmer on the coasts (that's what my forecast had, by the way). Here is a look at how this has played out in some recent El Ninos for December 2015 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - similar shift East of the heat like in 2018. 2014 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - some shift in the heat again to the East. Again, some shift east in the heat over Montana in 2009. Now, here is 2019 - I think you have to expect the cold center over Kansas to move East given the recent history? So slightly warm coasts, cold middle. That was my forecast too.

These are (tentative) top SOI monthly matches for Sept/Oct/Nov objectively, for the past 90 years or so - Year Sept Oct Nov Distance 2019 -12.7 -5.2 -9.0 0.0 1951 -11.2 -12.3 -8.5 9.1 1987 -10.6 -5.3 -1.5 9.7 1932 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 9.9 2014 -6.6 -8.2 -8.0 10.1 1957 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 10.2 1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7 11.5 Looks familiar to me...although I didn't forecast this exactly for December. I do expect the composite warmth/cold to be shifted somewhat east. SOI has had some really impressive negative bursts this month: Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 19 Nov 2019 1008.38 1009.80 -27.36 -8.52 -8.87 18 Nov 2019 1009.78 1011.20 -27.36 -7.24 -8.68 17 Nov 2019 1012.24 1010.80 -9.17 -5.97 -8.53 16 Nov 2019 1013.57 1010.40 1.84 -5.59 -8.31 15 Nov 2019 1012.81 1009.85 0.51 -5.56 -8.25 14 Nov 2019 1012.31 1010.45 -6.49 -5.67 -8.17 13 Nov 2019 1012.54 1011.25 -10.12 -5.90 -8.28 12 Nov 2019 1011.94 1010.50 -9.17 -5.76 -8.39 11 Nov 2019 1011.42 1010.05 -9.61 -5.18 -8.48 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.63

I like 10-30 inches for our mountains by Friday morning, and then maybe a bit more on Friday. Something like 1.00-1.25" at a 22:1 ratio for the highest mountains. Not sure if it will verify, but my gut says there will be some dry bulb magic with this system late, and it might (briefly) snow down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet, with a quick inch even in Albuquerque on Thursday Night or Friday Morning.

Pretty much identical this week to 2018 outside Nino 1.2 The warmth below Nino 3 is surfacing now. Warm pool to the West should thin then re-develop. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 31OCT2018 21.4 0.2 25.9 0.9 27.8 1.2 29.8 1.1 07NOV2018 22.1 0.8 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9 14NOV2018 22.2 0.6 25.8 0.8 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.9

200m+ of warm water below the surface basically east of 130W now. Much less warmth from 130W-170W., with actually a lot of cold. There is a push of warm water moving East, but I think you have to assume there will be a fairly rapid transition to, or at least toward an East based El Nino starting in December. The cold water should at least thin the warmth at the surface over time by Nino 4. There is still some cold water at the surface near South America, so the warmth won't win out initially, but it should in the next few weeks. The event could end up basin-wide again, like last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up East based late in the winter. It seems like it takes about ~one week for every 10m of warm/cold subsurface water to surface. So you'd be looking at an East-based El Nino or even a 2016-17 pattern (warm by Indonesia, warm by Peru, cold Middle) by February. That would be consistent with my analogs which had a big warm up nationally in mid or late winter.

The negative PDO in winter correlates to a warm Southeast and a cold Northwest - with the NAO forcing a more winter styled pattern in October when it was negative, that was exactly what we saw in October with the PDO negative. Saying "the PDO has been positive since 2014" completely misses the point. The trend is down. Look at the transition by Nov-Apr: 2012-13: -0.40 2013-14: +0.38 2014-15: +2.07 2015-16: +1.70 2016-17: +1.07 2017-18: +0.30 2018-19: +0.51 2019-20: Since 1931, there are no Nov-Apr periods above +0.5 after the PDO is 0 to -1 in October. It will probably be right around 0 or somewhat negative. A cold Nino 1.2 in October also strongly favors that the PDO values in Fall will fall from winter/spring. So far, the cold in November is exactly where you'd expect it to be based on a strong negative SOI in September. Look at the green areas on the SOI map and the places in the US that are cold. I'd imagine once all the warm lows and moisture come out from our storms this week in the Southwest, quite a bit of the cold will burn off, but we'll see. I don't think the models have that built in yet. We're still not that different from last year this Fall - the PDO went negative for a brief moment last year too after all, although not to -0.45.

As long as the waters away from the coast are much warmer than next to the coast, it is just a warm version of the negative PDO. It's not like October was that different but it was -0.45 on the JISAO index. I'm not disputing that the waters along the West Canada coast are still somewhat warm, but relatively speaking, they're colder than the waters south of Alaska.

El Nino with a -PDO November. Indian Ocean is kind of nuts compared to last year too. In real +PDO years, you have the warm ring around the cold waters.

This is why I went somewhat colder in the East than last year. Although I don't think this extent of the cold is quite right, I think it will be less cold and less warm on each end. All the modeling had the warm core of the El Nino around 120W last year, this year, it's shown around 180W. I think my idea from late Sept/early Oct is still about right in the tropics -

The new Jamstec is similarly cold for the US for winter as in the last run. It has really exaggerated the differences in the SSTs from the West Tropical Pacific and the East Tropical Pacific. I'd call it an El Nino. The West also trended much wetter. The temperature, sst and precip maps look a lot like my forecast now, although I don't expect the cold to penetrate as deep into the Southeast. The warm West/New England look strikes me as about right though.