raindancewx

Don't look now, but with the MJO different, 2013 now once again looks completely different to 2019 in November. It doesn't look like 2018 or 2014 either. Passing resemblance to 1951, 1967, 2012 though.

Today looks a lot like the November MJO composite for phase six, with the warmth in Billings, Denver, Kansas City, etc, but the East Coast cold, and the heat struggling to push into New Mexico. The push into 7-8-1 later in the month should warm up the East quite a bit - this month probably won't finish anywhere as chilly as it looks right now. A lot of the US is 6F or more below average in November to date.

This event may not last too much longer. I think October will eventually be warmed up on the CPC data to 27.3C or so. After that, Nov-Dec look El Nino warm, safely. Jan/Feb/Mar still kind of iffy. Heat is only down to 100m. I'd say we are about due for a) a Strong La Nina and b) a flat Neutral (26.5C) - will be interesting what happens if the warmth doesn't get replenished. NOAA PDO crashed in October. Will be curious to see the JISAO/Mantua value for October. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201907 0.42 201908 -0.16 201909 0.03 201910 -0.81

I don't "expect" my winter analogs to work in the neighboring seasons, but I do like to see relatively close matches to make sure I am on the right track. I had the cold West idea for October in the winter analogs (the blend is from 10/1, although I didn't release it until 10/10), with the cold shifting East for November. Not bad. The pattern was more amplified than my analogs, probably in part because the PDO went more negative than I had it. I'll never understand why New Mexico never shows up cold on these maps. Albuquerque was 2.7F below the 1951-2010 average high in October 2019 (68.3F v. 71.0F).

Fairly similar to what Larry Cosgrove has, although Cosgrove is better at seasonal forecasting.

MJO looks about two weeks faster to reach phase six in November than last year. Will be very interesting to see if it stalls in Phase 1 again, like in October. That would probably warm up the South and make the West / Plains frigid again, although shifted a bit east of the late October outbreak.

This event does look a lot colder than last by SSTs, it's kind of interesting that the SOI response has been better so far. That may just have to do with how cold it is in Nino 1.2 relative to Nino 4. That 29.5C v. 20.2C spread in October has got to be a record. Nino 4 is literally almost as warm as October in the Super Nino of 2015-16, while Nino 1.2 is literally almost as cold as in October 2017-18. The 2017-18 temperatures in Nino 1.2 reached levels that hadn't been seen since 1980 in some months.

Larry Cosgrove is one of the better seasonal forecasters I've seen, and he's got similar storm track frequencies to what I have in mind. For Dec-Mar his map is probably right for temps. For Dec-Feb, my analogs had the entire cold area to the Northwest by like 300-500 miles. March has a strong bias to be cold in the East in low-solar years. My main disagreement with him is December - his analog blend is pretty cold in Nino 4, which is an easy way to get the East cold in December. My snow map had an enhanced area in the NW, the high elevations of the Rockies, and then in the Midwest, like his does. My hunch for the NE was its "everybody gets 35" kind of winter for Boston to Philly, but that's not quite what the data said. You can see his forecast on his Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Nino 4 was 29.5C in October (4th warmest since 1950). Observed record warmth is 29.84C in Nino 4 in October. 1969 29.32 1982 29.44 1987 29.58 1991 29.47 1994 29.45 1997 29.34 2002 29.41 2004 29.46 2006 29.45 2009 29.68 2015 29.84 2018 29.71 Those are your Nino 4 years that hit at least 29.3C in October. Once you get above 29.5C or so, none of the years feature a cold December in the East, the coldest above 29.5C is 2009, and it is average, despite strong counter signals to Nino 4. The map last year looked like a composite of the 29.3C+ Decembers prior to it. Nino 4 is cooler than 2018 though - and it may cool a bit more relative to 2018 by December, so I do think December will be slightly cooler than last year in the East. MJO should get to phases 6-7-8-1 later in November. I'd imagine a pretty big warm up is coming with it to prevent overall November numbers from getting too out of control cold. All of those phases are warm in the South overall in OND. The subtropical jet is waking up, and the Indian Ocean has been alight with convection recently, both tend to precede warm ups.

The MJO now looks like it will be a pretty coherent force for at least the next week. We're probably going to get into phase 8 around mid-month, which times up well with the recent huge SOI crash for a big storm somewhere in New Mexico or Colorado. Phase 8 MJO is pretty wet in November here I'm pretty sure. We should get some rain this week too, will be the first November precipitation of any kind for Albuquerque since 2016.

CPC has ONI at +0.1 for ASO. They revised September warmer in the raw data. October came in +0.44C against their baseline. Against 1951-2010 means, it would be +0.69C, and it will probably be revised warmer next month anyway. Six weeks above 27.0C is an El Nino to me at this time of year. The 27.19C for October is still warmer than October 2014, even though the weeklies implied 27.3C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 For the SOI stuff, you can look at the BOM data base and see if it has merit yourself. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Blizzard of 1993 was around 3/13 right? That's 31+28+13 days into 1993, i.e. 72 days. Here is the SOI in late Feb / early Mar 1993: 1993 61 1015.53 1008.30 14.95 1993 62 1013.67 1009.25 1.51 1993 63 1010.83 1008.50 -8.55 1993 64 1010.61 1008.80 -10.99 That 20+ point drop is about 10-days ahead of the blizzard. The extremely powerful storm this past March had a lesser drop, but it was there: 2019 60 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 2019 61 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 2019 62 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 This is the Perfect Storm time frame - (365 = Dec 31, -31 for Dec, -30 for Nov, -3 for Oct, -10 for the SOI lead time, i.e. 365-74 = 291?) 1991 290 1011.85 1012.15 -20.57 1991 291 1011.32 1011.90 -22.34 1991 292 1008.97 1011.55 -35.24 The system (closed low last I looked) coming into the SW this week ties in with the most recent drop. I generally look for a big storm over the SW in 10-days after a big SOI crash occurs in a short period (1-2 days) in El Ninos. But in non-El Ninos it is less reliable for the SW, and the reliability does seem peak from mid-Nov to mid-Apr, it has no use in Summer. 29 Oct 2019 1011.22 1010.05 -11.09 -4.59 -6.94 28 Oct 2019 1011.75 1010.10 -8.00 -4.19 -6.79 27 Oct 2019 1012.01 1008.90 1.42 -3.98 -6.5

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.6 Those 20 pt, single day SOI drops are trouble historically. Need to watch for a big time storm mid-month.

I'm aware that October 1948 is nothing like October 2019. Worth noting, the 135-165W, 30-60N zone was not warm in October like it now. It developed later. That's why that area of warmth is interesting to me, since it is west of 2013 - when it exists in 1948-49, even with the PDO, AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, and global SSTs way different, it still went to the pattern observed in October. The Oct 2019/Dec-Feb 1948-49 pattern only exists when that warmth is pronounced in the zone I listed. In 2013-14, you had more success pushing the heat out of the SE US compared to this year. The magnitude of the cold/heat in 2013 is also not really comparable if you use the same scale. A lot of states in the West reported their coldest ever October in 2013, with a lot of states in the South reporting top five hottest ever for October. I'm not trying to rain on parades, but I am seeing a lot of what happened last year, when people kept saying "2002" was similar to Fall, even though the October heat in the East and cold push were both more severe than in 2002.

QBO is still positive in October: +7.27 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data My analog blend has it at slightly below 0 for Dec-Feb, -6.77 or so. That's probably about right. Last year, the QBO tracked pretty similarly to 1994-95. No reason to expect a radical break from 1995 at this point. Should cross into negative territory on the monthly data in December or January. Something like 0-6 in Nov, -2 to +2 in Dec, -6 to 0 in Jan, -10 to -2 in Feb. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.9 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.4 -18.08 -9.86 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 -999 -999

California largely ended its drought from the 2015-16 El Nino favoring the North for snow, and then the 2016-17 La Nina producing a lot of storminess in Nov/Jan/Apr throughout the SW. The 2018-19 winter was better than 2016-17 in the SW for snow-pack, but not due to moisture - it just didn't melt quickly because it was far colder in Spring.

One thing that concerns me this winter is that record cold in the orientation that occurred in October 2019 has occurred with the same blotch of warm waters in the Pacific in previous winters. I'm defining this blob as 150-180W, 30-60N, as opposed to 2013-14, which was 135-165W, 30-60N. See the heat shooting up to Ohio with the cold over Montana and the whole west cold? Look at this. 30-60N, 150-180W right? Both cases. Both periods, record cord in the West (cooler ring by Western North America around the warmth, with cold south of the equator too.) That 2013-14 setup was east of this year, and so the cold was centered east. The distance from where the cold is centered and where the blobs are centered is about 15-20 degrees E-W. So it makes sense that the blob in 2013-14 would feature severe cold in the Lakes, while the current one has focused more on Montana and Wyoming. This all assumes these warm patches matter, and that if they do, the current one will persist.

I keep seeing people referencing 2013...but the October pattern was far more amplified than that year. 2018 is not too far off in the East though for October. I saw this elsewhere:

Looks like the European was caught with its pants down in Nino 4 this month. Whole plume for Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 will likely shift up a bit this month. Nino 3.4 is likely about 27.3C for October - the Nino zone data for October will arrive this week. A 27.3C October is +0.55C on the CPC standard, but +0.8C against 1951-2010. CPC tends to "adjust" data for a month or two after it is in. Even so, ONI for Aug-Oct should be 26.97C or so, and the CPC base for that period is 26.82C, so it's back to +0.15C. The 1951-2010 average is 26.56C - so +0.42C - nearly back to El Nino already, more consistent with the SOI, which is also nearly El Nino for Aug-Oct (-7.03 for Aug-Oct).

I have mechanisms for estimating "snow ratios" in the West when I do my analogs, and yes, the general idea is relatively dry snow occurring fairly often. Think 22:1 ratios instead of 17:1 if 17:1 was your average.

It's pretty likely that the Canadian Model is really just outputting information and spatial information for coordinates. So it is up to the vendor to determine the basis for the anomaly with the raw information. Just another reason to be wary of models. Same reason all the different SST data has slightly different baselines.

Probably (Definitely?) won't get a 968 mb low out of it this time, but October was wetter than September again in Albuquerque. That has always preceded measurable precipitation in October back to 1931 (37/37 cases), including last year. Odds are always much better for a big wet March when October is wetter than September.

We've pulled ahead of the late/fake El Ninos now too. October looks nothing like 2012 for instance. Weaker than last year. North Pacific still neutral for the PDO zone. That cold water by Peru in October tends to rot away the warmth right along the coast of West Canada, as we've seen. Also, sunspots for the year ending October are down to 4.2 - still lower than the comparable time in the last cycle (year ending Oct 2008). The 12-month low last cycle was 2.2. Whether we go lower than that or not, I'd say its 50/50 we hit the 12-month low point of this cycle in the next six months.

My hunch is the difference between this winter and last winter is that much drier air is coming into the Southwest. If there is enough of it that spills East, there will be some efficient snow producing events fairly far south, maybe from what the local NWS calls "wet bulb magic", although not many, probably less than two. We've had dewpoints in the -10s here for days now. It's ridiculous. Places are toward Arizona are already doing their winter thing, 65F in the day, 15F at night. My statistical methods show that the colder Albuquerque gets in October (lowest low temp) the more lows of 32F or less we have - i.e. the more dry air, without excessive heat. This year, even factoring in the urban heat island and background warming of Earth, I get...109 lows of 32F or less from Oct-May, +/- 24 at around 95% confidence based on the last century (currently at 7 - two weeks ahead of last year, when we had 97). The 30-year average, to last year, is 92. Dry air can be good to have around in winter if it isn't going to be super cold.

Coldest October here since 1986 - 55.4F, around 2.5F below the past 100 years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt I actually couldn't get a good match on the Aug/Sept/Oct subsurface data this time - it kind of looks a blend of 1991 (big major warm up below the surface in October), but colder. Something like 1991, 1992, 1993 as a blend is kind of close, but still not great, for how it is behaving. The issue with the subsurface matching is that the subsurface was slightly cold in August, neutral (exactly 0) in September, and then very warm in October - that doesn't really exist in the data in a single year. You have to blend like crazy to get it. Subsurface data came in at +0.7 for 100-180W in October. That's always translated to an official El Nino since the subsurface data has been available in 1979. It's below last year, when the subsurface was +1.58 in October. The subsurface in October 2014 and other actual El Ninos was somewhat cooler than in October 2019. If you plug in +0.7 along the line, it implies a 27.1C El Nino, give or take about 0.6C, around 80% certainty (32/40) for the last 40 years.

Not really. Most of the recent El Ninos have been good for at least parts of California for moisture. Without looking, I think maybe 2014 and 2002 are the exceptions since 1997.