raindancewx

I had 2009 as my top weighted analog this winter (3/10 of my blend), so its nice to see relatively close highs and snow in Stapleton. The cold Junes / warm late Summer / cold October is pretty interesting for NM and CO, it's not something that shows up a lot in the records. It seems to tie into year that have blocking but also "stuck" MJO patterns in the last 40 years. This winter seems like it could feature a lot of drier than normal snow across the West. I really don't have a strong precip signal in the data I look at, but snow still looks average to above average generally.

Cold mornings have arrived in greater frequency than my analogs depicted. Blending year with coldest October low is pretty predictive for number of lows <=32F here for the total of <=32F nights: I get 109, +/-24 using the last 30-years for the confidence interval, and 109, +/-27 using the last 90-years. Either way, anything above 118 would be most in lifetime. We finished with 97 last year, but only through 11/15. Looks like like we'll be at seven through 11/1.

The new Canadian run looks a bit more El Nino-y, especially north of the equator. Tropical Tidbits fixed its climatology (baseline for averages) so these maps work again. It has a warm US look. The move toward more precip in the SW is likely an indicator that it is starting to sense the warm Nino 3.4 The model doesn't have any long range seasonal skill at this range for winter. This is last year (warmest where it was coldest on Nov 1, 2018) The October forecast (cold West / warm South) from 9/30 was pretty good. The Oct 31 forecast for November has this - and its not dissimilar to the CFS or my November analogs. A -NAO favors a warm West in November. Most of my top winters are 0-2F above normal in November.

This October finished about 2F colder in Albuquerque than my analogs had it. I think it's going to finish with an average temperature of 55.4F for the city - coldest since 1986 if that is correct. It's a top 10-cold October here for the past 100 years. Also pretty sure that Jan-Oct is now running about 2F colder than in 2018 locally, which is a lot for a 10-month period, when there is only about six degrees of variation on an annual basis for the past 100-years, and that 2F drop is even after a very hot period in late Summer, mid-July to mid-Sept essentially. How did you fair in the local rankings for October in Colorado?

SOI should finish around -5 or -6 for October. 1951 is a top Aug-Oct match, which makes sense given that it looks like October. SOI Aug Sept Oct 2019 -3.1 -12.7 -5.0 1946 -4.0 -13.3 -12.3 1969 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 1990 -4.4 -7.3 -1.2 1951 -5.2 -11.2 -12.3 1987 -13.1 -10.6 -5.3 1972 -8.2 -14.1 -11.0 1972-73 is essentially the best physically possible pattern for the West, will be watching to see if it remains a strong match into November..

This is pretty similar to what I had. I did go higher in Northern California and some spots in the Southern Plains. Mainly for CA because a big -SOI in September is a strong wet signal for North California, and the SOI was -13 in September.

Since 1950, these are the Octobers with 27.0-27.6 Nino 3.4 monthly readings, since it looks like we finish with Nino 3.4 at 27.3C. Oct 3.4 1951 27.20 1957 27.42 1963 27.36 1969 27.34 1976 27.46 1977 27.35 1986 27.53 1991 27.58 1994 27.47 2003 27.14 2004 27.44 2006 27.41 2009 27.60 2012 26.98 2014 27.16 Of these, 1951 is easily closest to highs across the US. Then 1969 (right in the West but too cold in the South - no help moving the high from Camille?). 2004 and 1994 aren't super far off either (neither is last year, at 27.62C). 1957, 1976, 2006, 2009 are too cold. 1963, 1977, 1991, 2003, 2012, 2014 are kind of opposite, and a lot of the other years are just off in various ways. The El Ninos with the lowest annualized solar activity are 1953-54, 2009-10 and 2018-19 - very different winters, but we'll see. It's probably not great for a cold December in the East that Oct 1963 is relatively opposite of Oct 2019 nationally - I think the MJO must have gotten stuck in a warm phase back then, and Dec 1963 was the second coldest Eastern December since 1950. I think maybe compared to 1963, the MJO is off by 6-weeks, and compared to 2013, it's off by four weeks but we'll see. For highs locally, for June-Oct, 1948 is the closest match since 1931 - very hot July-Sept sandwiched between a cold June & October. I wouldn't even mention this normally, but that year went to ridiculous, stupid cold in the West in January, kind of like the recent pattern...but in January and for a much longer period than the recent cold snap. I'll be watching for that. I sincerely doubt January 1949 will come to fruition. But I keep expecting a more recent year to replace 1948 as the best match to highs and it hasn't happened yet. 1948 keeps building its lead over every other year back to 1931.

You can use this site for now - this is essentially the http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ site, but it is still up and working. http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

This is why I always argue ENSO events should be defined against a long-term, stable period. I use 1951-2010. CPC adjusts the baseline for El Nino and La Nina every five years, as if there is some law of the universe that says we have to have a 30-40-30 split between El Nino/Neutral/La Nina. I think its pretty likely that we're moving to a state where El Nino is the most likely outcome of the three, even recognizing that the PDO base state has some say in ENSO frequency historically. Also, a lot of the effects that are supposed to be canonical to the three states really have to do with ENSO order more than anything. I think the tendency for the West will be more warm/wet winters generally, but the increasing likelihood of El Nino means that when we do see harsh winters - generally El Ninos after La Ninas - they will be fierce, like 2018.

It's like magic. I had this map in my forecast from 10/10 (see page 14). https://t.co/1yr0fAbUKK?amp=1 Now look at what the CFS has for November 2019. The CFS actually has decent skill for the coming month just before it start Also, this looks like an El Nino on the CFS now. Levi fixed his Canadian climatology issue so the Canadian update should be interesting on Halloween (I'll be here to avoid the record cold).

We've got some all-time record cold coming in this week. It's amazing to think that it was 77F on October 30th in 2016. Ski season looks pretty promising here, although I do expect November to see less extreme cold in a relative sense, since it can be below 0 in November. Fairly strong correlation in Albuquerque between coldest low and total lows of 32F or less from Oct-May. A (verified) low of 19 would imply around 120 nights of lows 32F or less from Oct-May, even adjusting warmer for the heat island/background warming (raw formula implies about ~130 lows of 32F or less if we hit 19F in October). We'll see.

From the NWS ABQ Office: ...RECORD COLD THIS WEEK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...WINTRY WEATHER IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... Unseasonable to record breaking cold temperatures will dominate northern and central New Mexico this week, as northerly upper winds reinforce a modified Arctic airmass in place over the region. Much of the northeast third of the state will see near record to record low temperatures tonight, including Santa Fe, Las Vegas, Raton, Clayton and Tucumcari. Other locales will see overnight low temperatures 5-15 degrees colder than normal for late October. Highs Tuesday will warm over today`s readings but it will get even colder Tuesday night and Wednesday as another modified Arctic blast surges into New Mexico on gusty north winds. Wednesday`s highs will be 25-40 degrees colder than normal, with highs ranging from the 20s and 30s east and north to mostly 40s southwest. In addition to the cold, freezing drizzle, freezing fog and light snow will develop over the east Tuesday night and Wednesday. This includes the Interstate 40 corridor from Clines Corners to the Texas border, Interstate 25 from Glorieta Pass to Raton Pass, and U.S. 64 from Raton to Capulin. While ice and snow accumulations are expected to be minimal, the travel impacts will be hazardous. Wednesday night will feature mid winter like temperatures, with near record to record lows ranging from around 20 degrees below zero to the single digits above zero across most of the north with teens south. Wind chill readings across north central and northeast New Mexico will vary from near zero to about 30 degrees below zero.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 Subsurface heat is up again on the ENSO weekly PDF. Five weeks in a row of El Nino level heat in Nino 3.4. CPC uses 26.75C as the baseline, and Nino 3.4 is around 27.3C. Nino 1.2 is around 20.0C for October on the weeklies. I don't think the monthly number will be that low for Nino 1.2 - but if it comes in under 20.0C that is a strong indicator since 1950 that the PDO will finish below 0 for Nov-Apr (17/18 cases). Definitely less basin wide than last year and 2014-15 so far. Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 are actually warmer than 2014 now for what its worth, since Oct 2014 came in at 27.16C in Nino 3.4. 26SEP2018 20.2-0.3 25.5 0.6 27.3 0.6 29.3 0.6 03OCT2018 21.3 0.7 25.6 0.7 27.4 0.7 29.5 0.8 10OCT2018 21.1 0.4 25.6 0.7 27.3 0.6 29.5 0.9 17OCT2018 21.1 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.6 0.9 29.6 0.9 24OCT2018 21.3 0.3 25.9 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.8 1.1 24SEP2014 21.2 0.8 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.4 29.3 0.6 01OCT2014 21.7 1.1 25.4 0.5 27.1 0.3 29.2 0.5 08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5 15OCT2014 21.5 0.7 25.5 0.5 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7 22OCT2014 21.8 0.8 25.8 0.8 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7

I keep seeing people referencing 2013 as an analog because of the blob, but the pattern nationally really is closer in the East so far to 2018 than to 2013, which to me implies it isn't much of a factor due to differences in the PDO structure. That light blue area should end up very close to Mexico by the end of October 2019, but the issue with both years is they were too cold in the SW and too warm in the NW. Nino 3.4 readings will be similar in October 2014 and 2019, but the US pattern is completely different. The strongest response for US temps to winter from the PDO are in the NW US and SE US. So the very cold NW / very warm SE October has some resemblance to a -PDO for Winter 2019-20, while the very warm NW / relatively cold SE in 2014 has some resemblance to what would become the super positive PDO winter of 2014-15, when the PDO was +2.07 for Nov-Apr (sort of the PDO equivalent of a Super El Nino). The October 2014 'cold' spot is right where the deep purples are for the winter correlation.

I'm pretty happy with what I have for the Northeast for snow. One of the loose guidelines in El Ninos that I can do for Boston is to look at October rainfall in Albuquerque v. Boston snowfall. For El Ninos since 1931, this formula is about 90% likely to be within 26 inches of the observed total for Boston: Boston July-June snowfall in inches = 51.416*(2.718^-0.2692x), where x is total precipitation in Albuquerque in October. If you go back to the 1800s, with 15/17 low-solar El Nino years seeing less than 45 inches of snow in Boston, it seems like its fairly safe to eliminate most of the right side of the 90% confidence interval for this year, which would be 44", +/-26". I don't think Albuquerque rainfall is completely independent from solar activity...but it's pretty independent? In El Ninos, you definitely have real statistical relationships between the SW and NE for precipitation patterns. Total rainfall here so far is about 0.58" for October. We might get some snow by the end of the month or a bit more rain. 2014 is similar for rain here...but much higher solar activity, and completely different in October nationally. In 2018, we had 1.99" in October - that wasn't apparent when I did my Oct 10 forecast last year, but when it happened it was consistent with the idea of Boston being below average as you can see. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8

January 1952 is like +7F in the SE, with December/February not much better. I don't think 1951-52 will hold up real well outside Fall though. Nino 4 is much warmer than in 1951, and like you said, the PDO crashed hard to well below 0 by December 1951, which is correlated to strong winter heat for the South. In Fall/Spring, I generally weight the PDO/AMO higher, with the prior year ONI, solar, and some other things less. As solar/ONI prior and the others become more important, 1951 should fall of as a match. I looked earlier - the best October matches to this October in an El Nino since 1930 are: 1939, 1941, 1951, 1969, 1994. Something like 2014 is relatively opposite, with places in the Northwest out by close to 20 degrees compared to what has happened this October, despite similar Nino 3.4 temps.

For reference - not quite as warm as last year, but it's amazing how much the warmth has caught up to last year. The analog map on the previous page is pretty close to what I had when I expected a Neutral winter up until I gave up on it around 9/25 and went El Nino. With a low-solar Neutral I think I had Boston around 60 inches of snow. With an El Nino, you run the risk the tropical forcing changes rapidly at some point and I think we lose the extended -NAO regime we've been in predominantly since mid-April. El Nino is El Nino because the warmest waters come up by Peru around Christmas - that little blotch of blue should get destroyed right around mid-December, so the fishermen should beat CPC again this year.

The warmth is still moving East. Really not that different from last year. Main difference is there is more cold water around this year.

October 1951 is honestly shockingly close to October 2019 for temperatures nationally - one of the best single year analog matches I've seen in a few years. Oct 1951 was a 27.2C El Nino in Nino 3.4, but it was an East-based El Nino by this point. In the West, the cold should actually push further South than 1951 by the end of the month. Areas near the Mexican border in New Mexico will be 25-30F outside the cities tomorrow morning - very cold for October that far south at fairly low elevations.

The tricky thing with the Modoki readings is that the overall value can be skewed positive or negative by the "Box C" waters - by the Philippines that don't really impact the Eastern US. In other words, these are both high (EMI - El Nino Modoki Index) Modoki winters: Box C Box A Box B (Box A)-(0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C) W Pac Cent Pac East Pac Modoki +1.0 +2.0 +2.0 (2.0)-(0.5*2)-(1*0.5) = +0.5 +0.2 +1.6 +2.0 (1.6)-(2.0*0.5)-(0.2*0.5) = +0.5 Those are both exactly the same on the Modoki index. The first El Nino I listed is fairly similar to 2015-16. The second is pretty different...but would be scored the same on the EMI. When I say I use El Nino Modoki stuff for my analoging, I use all three boxes. The actual EMI values don't matter to much since you can arrive at the same values in different ways. The only way to get the entire Western US super cold seems to be with Box C cold, and then the other two warm - which is why it basically never happens anymore. Last year was only 1-2F below normal for the SW.

Snow in Santa Fe...low 50s in Albuquerque today. Amazing how sharp the cut offs can be in Fall and Spring systems that don't quite dive far enough south.

Last year behaved like Neutral PDO El Nino, which dumps cold in the West and Plains typically. I use 0, +/-0.5 for Nov-Apr, for the PDO as that designation. The composite is basically the same post 1950 (kind of looks like this October which is interesting). Box C (the waters by the Philippines) in the Modoki calculation is fairly strongly correlated to colder Western winters, and that zone has been relatively cold compared to recent years. Low solar El Ninos also tend to be less reliably "back-loaded" for the East in February - look at February 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010, 2019 - definitely a variety there compared to the high solar El Nino February years. Our high terrain never stopped being cold this year, a lot of the populated towns still had frosts in June, July and August. At this point, things look at least somewhat promising for the West. Here are some pictures from New Mexico today - Angel Fire Ski Resort Red River -

My analogs had some incredible cold pushes in the West and Plains in November, despite relatively bland departures overall. A big -NAO is correlated to a warm West in November generally but you can get big snow events in the Rockies despite an overall warm November. Conceptually, the "anti-logs" to the features this year, a cold Atlantic, cold North Pacific, weak La Nina, after a weak La Nina, both in high solar, with an active Monsoon in the SW ahead of winter...is something like 1967 or 1971. If you look at October 2019 and then October 1967 and October 1971, they are both opposite of 2019 in their own way. In 1967, the core heat/cold is East/West backwards v. 2019 in October, even though it is roughly at the right latitudes. Winter 1967-68 "flipped" for being east-west backwards actually looks fairly close to what I forecast for winter. In 1971, the cold core is in the SW, and the heat core is in the NE. In 2019, the cold core is in the NW, and the heat core is in the SE. So it is North/South opposite. Winter 1971-72 flipped "North-South backwards" actually also looks fairly close to what I forecast for winter.

I couldn't get it to work at my office either. It is a link to Scribd, so maybe it is blocked? I think some have been able to see it. It is free. But I may do some subscription stuff at some point. I have a big collection of strong predictors for each region of the US now, and I've done statistical work on how they should be weighted for different seasons, and to account for the Earth warming somewhat, as well as solar stuff. For instance, in the Southwest, solar activity is a meaningful precipitation variable for Spring/Fall, but not really for winter. But in winter it does correlate for temperatures, when filtered by ENSO, and it gets stronger at certain elevations for whatever reason. https://www.scribd.com/document/429712619/Winter-2019-20-Outlook I want to be clear here: There are some El Ninos when I would go huge for snowfall in New England and the Northeast generally. I don't mean 20-50% above average, I mean double average generally, up to x3 or x4 locally - but they're rare. The blend you want is high solar, El Nino, but El Nino Modoki. 2014, 2002, 1991, 1977, 1969, 1968, 1957 all fit some extent. For what it's worth...1951-52 is an El Nino and remarkably close to October 2019 so far. It's kind of a weird borderline El Nino like this will be, which is interesting. I didn't use it as analog though. 1994 is actually pretty close in the West, and 2018 isn't too dissimilar either in October, its just the heat/cold are nudged out of place compared to 2019. Some of the El Ninos in the 1930s and 1940s aren't terrible matches to 2019 either for what its worth. If you're in the East, you do not want the 1951-52 winter if you like snow and cold.