raindancewx

The Canadian has a powerful La Nina developing Apr-Jun 2020, which it didn't show before. Long-term the Canadian has the PDO going pretty strongly negative too. It's also more on board with a dynamic cold West / hot East pattern than the CFS. It's closer to the 2013/2017 blend than the El Nino blend. Outside the Northern Plains where it went super warm, the Canadian forecast was basically solid for December - I'd give it a B+.

The Canadian has El Nino conditions through January, and then La Nina developing in April/May 2020 It is on board with the CFS for the cold West / hot East January pattern. Interestingly it sort of had that look figured out Nov 30. So far, my precipitation forecast for winter from October 12th, 2019 has been going better than my temperature forecast (I had Warm/Cold/Warm for West,Central,East respectively in December - the cold didn't really verify Central). Will be interesting to see if that continues.

The SOI was very different this year in Oct-Dec. Implies radically different Jan/Feb than in 2019. The match composite was basically correct last year too. The left figures are for 2019, the right from 2018. Amplification was wrong, but the SOI blends had the right spatial ideas for Jan-Feb 2019.

The CFS has trended to a cold January for WY/CO/NM. I'm not sure I buy it, but it is nice to see. If you wanted a recent set of years that look like its forecast, you can do January 2013/2017 as a blend. I prefer a more El Nino blend, so I did 1906, 1952, 1958, 1993, 2019. The CFS has a dry West for January, which I don't really buy at all, at least for the WY/CO/NM zone. I have January 1952/1958 in there, as 1951/1957 are top SOI matches to Oct-Dec in the past 90 years, and then 1992/2018 are in there because they look like the January forecast as a blend and were in my winter forecast as analogs. I threw in 1905 for some other reasons. I'm expecting the Southwest get more active when the cold begins to move out.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.5 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.4 1.0 The weekly site doesn't have the new numbers, but they are here - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Here is the simplest blend I could find using El Nino-ish years that look like the CFS for January. 1951, 1957 are the top SOI matches Oct-Dec. 1992, 2018 are the top matches from my winter forecast. I threw in 1905 for some other reasons. If you want a super recent blend that matches the CFS, January 2013/2017 is close too. I suspect the colder blend is more realistic but we'll see. Also think the CFS might be pretty wrong. The top SOI match for Oct-Nov-Dec (pending 12/31) is likely 1951/1957. The January 1952/1958 blend looks a lot like what the CFS has. I mentioned this in one of the regional threads, but the Dec temperature map will bear a lot of resemblance to 8/16-9/15. The CFS January forecast looks a lot like 9/16-10/15, Cold West / Warm East. February would then be the 10/16-11/15 period i.e. it would be very cold in the middle of the US. This is all assuming the CFS is right for January. These aren't exact matches, but it shows a cycling pattern if the CFS is right. The -SOI in December is also a much colder signal for February 2020 compared to last year.

In an SOI sense, December has gone from a La Nina state in 2018 (+9.2) to an El Nino state in 2019 (-7.0 or so). The December SOI is highly correlated to temperatures in the following February for the NW & SE US. The +9.2 SOI was the only historical early indicator of the hot East / frigid West February last year. Even though the correlation map doesn't show it, the SW tends to get very cold when there is a flip from a La Nina to an El Nino (<=26.0C DJF in Nino 3.4 to >=27.0C DF in Nino 3.4 in one year). The biggest Nino 3.4 warm ups in a single year, from cold to warm, include, in recent years, 2006, 2009, 2018 - all quite cold here. I'll be very curious to see if there is a cold February out here in light of the "SOI base state" going from La Nina to El Nino. The top SOI flips Dec/Dec that match 2018/2019 well in the past 100 years include 1946, 1957, 1989, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2009. In a timing sense, Aug 16-Sept 15 has matched the Dec 2019 pattern fairly well for US temps, the CFS January forecast looks a lot like Sept 16-Oct 15. So if the CFS is right for January and the timing pattern holds, I'd expect Oct 16-Nov 15 to look like February 2020 - a frigid month for the central US. As a composite, the years I listed for the SOI Dec/Dec change favor the entire South cold and the entire North cold in February. I'd expect a blend of the two for February, maybe one part of the month is very cold across the entire South, VA to CA, and the other part of the month is very cold between the Rockies & the Mississippi. CPC uses 26.65C as the basis for Nino 3.4 average in December. So ~27.15C or so on the weeklies should count as a +0.5C month. ONI for OND will likely be right around +0.5C, despite CPC insisting on a 70% odds of Neutral conditions in Fall. CPC also tends to warm up the most recent old month or two by 0.05C or so when the new data comes in, which helps with the likelihood of a +0.5C reading.

My crazy theory at this point is that 8/16-9/15 resembled December nationally for temps (cold N. Plains/avg NE), 9/16-10/15 resembles what the CFS has for January (cold West/warm East). That would make 10/16-11/15 the likely pattern for February if the CFS isn't completely wrong for January. I'm assuming the 12/28-12/29 panels as a blend are right. So the whole middle of the US would be frigid, including the interior South, in February before a major warm up that last just most of March & April. The months are never going to be exact matches, but the patterns do repeat. All of this will depend on the CFS being right and nothing huge changing in the tropics. But the month to watch is February going by the progression, especially in the absence of the +SOI in December like last year. Dec had coolness north, warmth elsewhere. January - coolness is shown West. Warmth elsewhere. Now look at February.

Cold water is gone from Nino 3.4 once again. Ties in well with the big SOI response after the positive readings Dec 1-10.

I have four methods for predicting Spring precipitation here: NDJ + Solar conditions Closest Precip Patterns July-Dec Replicate Precip Patterns July-Dec Statistical Regression The middle two methods imply a pretty wet Spring. I have a lot more faith in the third method this year compared to the second, as it was very difficult to mimic July-Dec 2019 with historical data this year. Heavily reliant on 1905 & 2004 to do it, with other years in there as 'fix its'. Essentially, you try to match the data in black for July-Dec with the blend. The green is then the forecast from the rolled forward blend. You can see how well the blend did last year, even though I gave up on November.

Forecasts for this storm were kind of a mess. Simultaneously more moisture advection than forecast - much higher dew-points - and then less actual precipitation at the same time. The line of showers that came with the cold front went literally due east until the Rio Grande River, and then went Northeast, missing most of Albuquerque, so I got literally no rain or snow. My winter forecast was premised on near average to wet conditions in the SW, despite few storms with a lot of precipitation. That still looks about right. Fall was well below average for precipitation and had fewer than average wet days, until November saved it. December has had two days with 0.1" or more precipitation in Albuquerque. I have a statistical regression for winter precipitation here, it said 2.10", +/-0.8" for winter in the city, at 95% certainty based on hindcasts. We're at 0.27" through 12/27. The signal is pretty strong for a wet January, around 0.75" for Albuquerque (double normal) based on how wet November was. Following the 10 wettest Novembers, January was wet nine times. Following the 20 wettest Novembers, January was wet sixteen times. November 2019 was the wettest November in over 100 years here. Somewhat weaker signal for a wet February too. It's very early, but if the wet January verifies, I'd also expect May to see the usual weather insanity, but amped up to 11 this year, with large hail, blizzards, tornadoes, cold snaps, heat waves, rain and thunderstorms for NM & CO and the High Plains. Nov-Jan wetness in Albuquerque is a strong predictor of an active May. The 2.26" from Nov-Dec 27 is already a top 20 Nov-Jan period for wetness locally in the last 100-years, with five weeks to go. A top five Nov-Jan is pretty likely here. Those Springs would be 1941, 1979, 1992, 1993, 2005. The CFS seems to want to roast the middle of the country for January based on the entrenched dryness. I don't really buy the dryness it shows for the West in January though. Pretty big area of the US +5F or more, if taken literally. That little blue area in Mexico makes me think the CFS isn't really "seeing" past the first 5-10 days of the month. The snow storm for Mexico will probably not be enough for that one area to be cold if everything around it is warm.

CFS continues to trend to a very warm January for the East. Warm ~entire East January is not a common outcome in El Nino years. Since 1930, it has happened in January 1931, 1946, 1952, 1964, 1992, 1995, 1998. 2012-13 isn't an El Nino, but it had the +IOD and a similar (colder) subsurface trajectory Oct-Dec. 1954, 1964, 1993, 1995, 1998, 2013 as a January blend may be what it is trying to do. Most of these years already had a lot of Eastern warmth, more than this year, in December. So I remain skeptical of the CFS solution. If you shift the warmth it shows to the NW somewhat and weaken the warmth everywhere, it looks like the El Nino 'warm East' January composite, which may be where the CFS is going. Not what I forecast - but we'll see what happens. If you throw out January 1946 and 1964, the weakest "warm East January" analogs, the composite shifts east. The 1930-31 El Nino was an El Nino following an El Nino. 1994-95 followed a neutral/warm Neutral. So did 1991-92. 1997-98 & 1994-95 had very strong positive IOD fall patterns, like 2019. So it 'makes sense' as a blend. Except 1991-92, all low solar years - 60 sunspots/year or less. Warm AMO years too. Canadian will be out 12/31 - will be interesting to see what it shows. Looks like the weeklies on the CFS are pretty cold in the SW as my methods and the composites above show.

The 100-180W waters below the surface in the Tropical Pacific look like they'll come in around +0.3 for December 2019. Using the data, a blend of 1986, 1991, 2000, 2012, 2018 looks pretty close to 2019 for Oct-Dec. 100W-180W Oct Nov Dec 1986 0.95 0.52 0.97 1991 1.41 1.22 1.71 2000 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2000 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2012 0.40 0.34 -0.27 2018 1.59 1.36 1.06 Blend 0.60 0.35 0.26 2019 0.70 0.26 0.30 The blend looks somewhat like what the CFS is showing for January 2020, although it will change its mind 20+ times by 1/1/2020. Want to see the final number next week for the subsurface, but the blend is warm in the middle of the US, somewhat cooler east/west. The SOI has gone ballistic in recent days. A blend of Oct-Dec 1951 & 1957 is currently close, but should continue to change through 12/31. Those values of -20 for consecutive days are typically trouble for someone in the US. Year Oct Nov Dec 1957 -0.3 -11.0 -4.3 1951 -12.3 -8.5 -8.3 Blend -6.3 -9.8 -6.3 2019 -5.2 -9.5 -6.7 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 26 Dec 2019 1007.10 1008.85 -28.39 -6.48 -6.79 25 Dec 2019 1006.63 1008.30 -27.97 -5.81 -6.46 24 Dec 2019 1008.40 1008.85 -21.64 -5.33 -6.12 23 Dec 2019 1009.75 1007.95 -9.97 -4.97 -5.81 22 Dec 2019 1009.29 1007.80 -11.57 -4.77 -5.73 21 Dec 2019 1009.10 1008.15 -14.38 -4.47 -5.65 20 Dec 2019 1010.74 1008.65 -8.46 -4.38 -5.62 19 Dec 2019 1010.39 1008.00 -6.90 -4.76 -5.74 18 Dec 2019 1009.79 1007.60 -7.94 -5.44 -5.98 17 Dec 2019 1008.73 1007.60 -13.44 -6.09 -6.28 16 Dec 2019 1008.58 1007.75 -15.00 -5.94 -6.36 15 Dec 2019 1009.50 1008.65 -14.90 -5.38 -6.30 14 Dec 2019 1010.24 1008.70 -11.31 -4.87 -6.20 13 Dec 2019 1010.74 1007.75 -3.79 -4.71 -6.20 12 Dec 2019 1011.38 1007.85 -0.99 -4.92 -6.46 11 Dec 2019 1012.71 1008.00 5.14 -5.19 -6.77 10 Dec 2019 1012.35 1009.10 -2.44 -5.68 -7.10 9 Dec 2019 1012.01 1009.20 -4.72 -6.09 -7.20 8 Dec 2019 1013.30 1008.65 4.83 -6.30 -7.27 7 Dec 2019 1014.25 1009.15 7.16 -6.46 -7.56 6 Dec 2019 1014.24 1009.75 4.00 -6.17 -7.88 5 Dec 2019 1012.70 1010.55 -8.15 -6.53 -8.09 4 Dec 2019 1012.06 1009.10 -3.95 -7.41 -8.12 3 Dec 2019 1012.67 1007.20 9.08 -8.42 -8.21 2 Dec 2019 1012.38 1007.35 6.80 -9.07 -8.48 1 Dec 2019 1012.31 1007.80 4.10 -9.40 -8.74

The GFS has been sending a snow storm pretty deep into Mexico early in 2020. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The huge recent SOI drop suggests it is possible.

December looks fairly similar to anti-1997, with 1940/1976 working fairly well as a blend so far. I doubt January will be as cold as the 1941/1977 blend or anti-1998 would imply. Long term, a positive NAO in December is a pretty strong warm signal for the mid-south in January. NAO is around +1 for December so far. I do think there are some good cold shots in January, but we'll see. A negative SOI December is a weak warm signal for the Northern half of the US in January too, not much of a cold signal anywhere though.

GFS still has storm timing faster later this week. The big SOI drop 12/22-12/24 ties in fairly well with the storm shown around 1/3 on the GFS, despite it being super far out.

Looks good - huge SOI drop 12/22-12/24 supports a storm around 1/3 or 1/4 in the SW. GFS is already showing something in that time frame, as far out as it is. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 24 Dec 2019 1008.40 1008.85 -21.64 -5.33 -6.12 23 Dec 2019 1009.75 1007.95 -9.97 -4.97 -5.81 22 Dec 2019 1009.29 1007.80 -11.57 -4.77 -5.73

Euro & GFS don't seem to be able to agree on timing or duration for the late week system. The GFS originally had a big snow event for the Rio Grande Valley. Now the Euro does, and the GFS has rain. They don't seem to agree on the backdoor cold-front. Both do show a lot of precipitation coming in though, so someone will get a lot of snow. The GFS also has the storm much earlier, while the Euro is later. I think the ensemble means are in between. This is the 5 am run of the Euro today, from the Pivotal site today at 11 am. This is almost all within ~5 days now if the timing hasn't dramatically changed.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 The little area of coolness below Nino 3 is keeping that zone relatively cool compared to the others. Outside chance we'll have a White Christmas here, and the Euro has more to follow. Albuquerque would be around 9 inches of snow for the season if the Euro was right through the end of December. Solutions will continue to change. The models do have a lot of rain and snow coming for the SW, so that's promising. The Jun-Nov / July-Dec period remains very similar to 1948 here for average highs - will be interesting to see if January sees some kind of incredible cold dump into the West like January 1949. December looks like it will finish near average here for temperatures, good start for the winter if the moisture verifies. My winter forecast (from Oct - see earlier in the thread) had a blend of 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018 for winter, but in December, I warmed the US 2F everywhere since the blend was too cold in Nino 4 (28.6C, observed is currently near 29.5C). The raw high blend in ABQ is 46.6F for 12/1-12/23, warmed up 2F, it goes to 48.6F, and my observed high is 49.4F for 12/1-12/23. I'm going to be too cold for Montana and the Southern half of the Central US, but once the rest of the month is baked in, should be pretty close elsewhere. For comparison, the blend on its own has been pretty good in the NE. Boston's 12/1-12/23 high is 42.9F, compared to 43.0F in the blend, and 11.5 inches of snow v. the blend forecast of 8.5 inches for December.

GFS is trying to trend to a good snow event for Albuquerque on Friday. The European doesn't really have it - just rain.

The next update this week should see the cold waters below Nino 3 fill in warmer. SOI has been consistently negative since mid-month. Around -4 for December last I checked.

PDO jumped to +0.15 in Nov. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Similar value to last November. Opposite Dec so far though. About 2F of the warmth here has burned off since 12/16, with the highs around 40 and cold mornings.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ The recent MEI, with most similar years since 1979. A lot of the top SOI matches are similar on the old MEI too. YEAR DJ JF FM MA AM MJ JJ JA AS SO ON ND 1979 0.47 0.26 -0.08 0.20 0.27 -0.15 -0.14 0.44 0.38 0.24 0.52 0.65 1980 0.35 0.19 0.41 0.59 0.55 0.62 0.62 0.15 0.20 0.09 -0.03 -0.06 1981 -0.33 -0.24 0.33 0.41 -0.27 -0.60 -0.51 -0.31 -0.01 -0.10 -0.22 -0.16 1982 -0.38 -0.47 -0.28 -0.34 -0.03 0.78 1.79 2.02 1.81 1.93 2.28 2.48 1983 2.57 2.74 2.68 2.79 2.89 2.02 0.75 -0.11 -0.41 -0.43 -0.43 -0.43 1984 -0.50 -0.52 -0.11 0.09 -0.47 -0.72 -0.31 -0.15 -0.11 -0.15 -0.58 -0.31 1985 -0.25 -0.58 -0.60 -0.76 -1.22 -0.57 -0.02 -0.37 -0.44 -0.04 0.00 -0.34 1986 -0.36 -0.30 -0.39 -0.52 -0.18 0.12 0.56 1.05 1.31 0.57 0.65 1.06 1987 0.98 1.08 1.47 1.66 1.91 2.02 1.92 1.48 1.23 1.13 0.85 0.75 1988 0.59 0.31 0.19 -0.01 -0.36 -1.19 -1.77 -1.79 -1.77 -1.54 -1.61 -1.49 1989 -1.09 -1.06 -1.20 -1.09 -1.04 -1.02 -1.12 -0.73 -0.61 -0.56 -0.33 -0.02 1990 0.12 0.43 0.61 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.17 0.06 0.21 -0.06 0.12 0.28 1991 0.16 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.35 0.89 0.88 0.42 0.62 1.09 1.17 1.29 1992 1.70 1.59 1.72 1.98 1.69 1.58 0.76 0.08 0.50 0.81 0.73 0.78 1993 0.83 0.93 0.78 0.98 1.48 1.50 0.91 0.62 0.64 0.95 0.70 0.26 1994 0.02 -0.17 -0.21 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.88 0.84 1.06 1.47 0.99 0.87 1995 0.77 0.48 0.14 0.18 0.16 -0.00 -0.25 -0.65 -0.86 -0.65 -0.67 -0.82 1996 -0.83 -0.81 -0.64 -0.69 -0.83 -0.90 -0.76 -0.60 -0.26 -0.31 -0.30 -0.45 1997 -0.66 -0.72 -0.29 0.17 0.68 2.25 2.11 2.20 2.17 2.01 2.06 2.03 1998 2.23 2.43 2.27 2.55 2.26 0.37 -1.42 -1.74 -1.31 -1.21 -1.30 -1.25 1999 -1.26 -1.18 -1.11 -1.17 -1.36 -1.26 -1.19 -1.07 -1.17 -1.31 -1.33 -1.43 2000 -1.26 -1.27 -1.36 -0.93 -0.97 -1.14 -0.58 -0.08 -0.36 -0.55 -0.91 -0.80 2001 -0.82 -0.87 -0.79 -0.61 -0.58 -0.71 -0.02 0.34 -0.07 -0.25 -0.32 0.02 2002 0.07 -0.26 -0.20 -0.36 -0.10 0.40 0.42 0.97 0.84 0.79 0.76 0.86 2003 0.80 0.62 0.53 -0.08 -0.57 -0.07 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.26 0.29 0.10 2004 0.16 -0.04 -0.44 -0.23 -0.44 -0.34 0.43 0.74 0.54 0.34 0.51 0.51 2005 0.08 0.61 0.82 0.13 0.18 0.20 -0.02 -0.01 -0.05 -0.71 -0.75 -0.73 2006 -0.68 -0.50 -0.61 -0.84 -0.43 -0.23 0.11 0.56 0.63 0.68 0.90 0.59 2007 0.62 0.39 -0.22 -0.36 -0.44 -0.86 -0.77 -0.93 -1.10 -1.14 -1.13 -1.22 2008 -1.08 -1.27 -1.54 -1.13 -0.98 -0.86 -0.87 -1.08 -1.07 -1.12 -1.05 -1.05 2009 -1.01 -0.85 -0.94 -0.81 -0.72 -0.06 0.49 0.52 0.39 0.56 1.05 0.96 2010 0.93 1.28 1.31 0.49 -0.17 -1.33 -2.43 -2.40 -2.28 -2.18 -2.04 -1.91 2011 -1.83 -1.63 -1.79 -1.74 -1.29 -1.08 -0.86 -0.88 -1.16 -1.37 -1.21 -1.24 2012 -1.08 -0.67 -0.59 -0.43 -0.35 -0.28 0.30 -0.06 -0.32 -0.22 -0.07 -0.07 2013 -0.05 -0.07 -0.14 -0.37 -0.71 -1.18 -0.85 -0.50 -0.38 -0.16 -0.18 -0.35 2014 -0.51 -0.43 -0.08 -0.16 -0.18 -0.01 0.32 0.16 -0.15 0.07 0.34 0.34 2015 0.23 0.05 0.13 0.35 0.96 1.85 1.73 1.92 2.21 2.11 1.88 1.90 2016 1.94 1.81 1.31 1.33 1.26 0.36 -0.51 -0.28 -0.34 -0.60 -0.51 -0.34 2017 -0.41 -0.41 -0.58 -0.21 0.17 -0.29 -0.70 -0.77 -0.80 -0.63 -0.63 -0.73 2018 -0.77 -0.70 -0.79 -1.29 -0.91 -0.51 -0.17 0.36 0.52 0.41 0.26 0.13 2019 0.08 0.52 0.77 0.33 0.26 0.35 0.24 0.30 0.15 0.27 0.45

On the weekly ENSO update, subsurface heat recovered somewhat this week. The wave of heat below the surface is expanding east in the Nino zones. We're somewhat close to 2003, 2004, 2014 in recent years, but without the super positive PDO of 2014-15 and high to very high solar in those years. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 17NOV2004 22.2 0.5 25.5 0.5 27.3 0.7 29.6 1.0 24NOV2004 21.9 0.0 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.7 29.5 1.0 01DEC2004 22.4 0.2 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 08DEC2004 22.3-0.2 25.7 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.8 19NOV2014 22.6 0.8 26.0 1.0 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.9 26NOV2014 22.4 0.4 25.9 0.9 27.6 1.0 29.5 0.9 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 The SOI has corrected somewhat negative in recent days. Will be interesting to see how it finishes December. Back to -1.5 for 12/1-12/16. For the moment, a blend of Oct-Dec 1936, 1944, 2014 is a good match for the SOI. Will be interesting to see if the SOI finishes near -8 by the end of the month. Year Oct Nov Dec 2014 -8.2 -8.0 -7.6 1936 0.3 -13.8 -0.7 1944 -8.5 -6.5 2.9 Blend -5.5 -9.4 -1.8 2019 -5.2 -9.5 -1.5

The GFS is essentially repeating the late Nov storm sequence for New Mexico in late December on the current run. Most runs since Dec 10 have shown a storm for NM 12/24-12/25, and then more after in the more recent runs. The high for winter here is currently 52.5F through 12/15, 1/6th of winter complete. It's very difficult historically to get above average snowfall here Oct-May when the winter high is above 51.5F - but it should drop quite a bit over the next few days, and the signal for a wet January is quite strong. It's interesting though, you guys don't seem to be included in the wet January.

Weird thing to say, but more optimistic for January than December overall, with the caveat that the 12/26-12/30 period is the most likely major storm period for NM. Models have been showing something 12/24-12/25 for New Mexico. I actually buy it - there is SOI support (10+ point drop w/in two days, 10 days out) for a major storm in that window, and the drops are more substantial than the small drops for 12/15 and 12/20. The late November storms had a 20 pt drop in ONE day, these are 10-15 point drops in two days, so doesn't look as potent as the late November stuff.