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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    It's pouring now, gets dark at like 6:30pm today
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    I think Nino1+2 will go positive by June or July.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    Today's storm is just EPO, -EPO with a slight trough over water south of it, it's not even NAO.. NAO is + actually with ridge over northern Europe. I keep saying this. We are getting our best winter storms in +NAO. (I think the issue is a normal -NAO goes +600dm-900dm, to extreme for average kind of a thing). Or it could be the 50/50 low theorem, where you have a low pressure parked to the north
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    I feel like we are going strongly toward El Nino (climo stats), this is a pretty strong opposite push, --/+
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    The pattern is so stable., Give it 10 years, or 7to10 years, and I bet any amount of money the eastern 2/3 of US are warmer than average>climotrends, SW->2-3xeast
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    -NAO Apr28-May 3 *Then, no real analogs until before 2010
  8. StormchaserChuck!
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, that's a pretty good +PNA
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino push.. +3, probably +4 soon in the western subsurface. Will probably go/turn positive at the surface by late May/June.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Kind of had a return of the cold snow/blowing snow, it was 13F a few mornings with light snow. C-/D+.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, it's snow for northern Va
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    How much snow? I said the Pacific 1/3 would even out +650dm December..no alarms. 2010 did the same thing, for the Winter it was very RNA.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    A few of the GFS ensembles looks close
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Nice little -NAO here .. we are going to carry this strong-NAO/-PNA/+EPO Pacific thing into next Winter
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    I think it will be a -AO Summer(+500mb).
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Here you go
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    *years It's probably a higher probability for the Winter though. It's not going to chagne the 5-year weather
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    1948/9-1951, great analog for -PNA evolution right now (ENSO-PNA). Yesterday's 12z GFS had 5-7 straight days of snowfall in Seattle, I checked the forecast though and it was Upper40s/low50s, rain throughout.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    I love it. No Low pressures in the SW on an exponential logarithmic scale, +, 1995 0.20, 2000 0.40, 2010 0.50, 2013 0.65, 2015 0.75, 2017 0.78, 2018 0.80, 2019 0.82, 2021-2, 0.90. Something to watch out for in the next few Winter's. I think it's correlation is strong. 9 straight Winter's above normal in the SW.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    The Hadley Cell really flexed this Winter, we had a +180dm N. Pacific anomaly, when the average for a Weak-Nina is +60dm+60dm 30% error. I think that general energy potential should extend into the Atlantic Hurricane season, keeping warm SSTs/calmer conditions generally farther north through the season. ENSO state is the wild card. vland/ocean
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    I still think we'll see a El Nino/solar action push, but it's relative to a dominant -PDO state.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    SW ridge has been extremely anomalous in the last few years. Biggest consistency in the globe (anomalies) right now.
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