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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, the shark is getting speared. Ascending Solar Min, underperforming is hard to El Nino, 09-10 is a counter-example.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Nasty Pacific ridge with +NAO, model shows 2-3 SD below average temps, but it's not going to snow at all.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    I keep saying it, we need a 2-3 year El Nino to even out. A strong El Nino, would in the 500mb pattern, be like 72-73 next Winter, alone. +2.8c-+3.0c> would be the only way we do that +PNA/GOA low like 97-98,etc.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    +NAO is a strong pattern, lows rotate around it on the ensembles, this is a wetter than average pattern.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, this persistent +PNA Is really a force here. Notice how the +NAO maxes at 2SDs though. Then we have a window before next January-Feb23 is -PNA.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    oh no!
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Permafrost? Let's take down the satellites that look like stars. Broken me llamo. Scientific dimensions? It's all dream-like ontop of a reality.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Extreme pattern here This is starting to show up the last 2 runs, -PNA-centered which we haven't had since December.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    medium range storm threat looks like the end of a La Nina Winter.. looks the same as 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, 19-20.. 20-21
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Not really going to verify at 384hr either(-PNA)
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    We'll do at best Moderate El Nino. I don't even know if it will be El Nino at all because of rising/ascending solar phase underperforming historically favors La Nina. April-May may see a blip in Nino 3,3.4 to +0.3/+0.4 something like that. If there is an El Nino wave it will happen in August.. 09-10 might be a good analog for next Winter, although it was an awkward Winter.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Well, there goes Strong El Nino chances for this year. Same rebuilding/cooling of the central subsurface
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    -PNA might not build as strong, but I'm excited for a good, healthy +NAO.. can't see it happening now with +PNA after 2 straight. maybe the whole modeled pattern will be wrong, or main indexes change.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, we had some good -NAOs build early in the season but it didn't last. I was noticing how 22 straight -NAO's, the mean for them was a + departure anyway.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Expect this -PNA ridge to withdraw a little bit in future model runs
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    We haven't had a +NAO in a while.. it might overperform
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    No chance of snow until March 1 probably.. 2SD +NAO here
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Not really any chance for anything for a while here. This is really bad. +NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    -PNA crreeps upward next Winter same stuff -NAO
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Powerful +NAO here.. Im interested in seeing where we go after this.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    +AO
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    This will be it for La Nina for a little while
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    I'll make a deak with you , no more Euro eps
  24. StormchaserChuck!
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    We are kind of a dry pattern, because there is big +NPH/NOI to be evened out in March by -NOI.. keeps us dry.
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