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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    (2008 qualifies, kind of a different pattern 2008 to 2009 though)
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    +NPH, +NOI Feb 1-19, really strong signal now. Similar to Strong El Nino's... reverses in March recent
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Again, unscientific but the reverse December-PNA and last February-PNA is pretty strong. In satellite era, extremes even out.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    A little unscientific, but we have been reversing last year nicely, Watch for this time to possible trend warmer (+EPO)
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Let's see what happens here
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    The problem is this +EPO/+NAO.. you know I think this has significant meaning, and it will always trend warmer closer. It may be hard to pattern change back, we go pretty hard +PDO pattern (+PNA/-EPO) but WATCH FOR THE NAO TO EVEN IT OUT. keeping us on the borderline or above through...little chance of snowstorm.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    More long range research.. +NPH is a ENSO pattern, +NOI, Feb 1-17 Mar Apr Jun Jul
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    +NPH, Feb 1-17, La Nina NE Pacific pattern, +NOI, since 1948 + and - analogs(20).
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    GOA High, La Nina pattern, +NPH, Feb 1-15 ^recent vsince 2000 1998-counter, all analogs for March. Same pattern.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Now vs 384hr
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    hmm artificial
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Even 13-14 and 14-15 were La Nina's really, we are lagging in Arctic ice melt I think
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Global warming cycle.. year 5
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    This is a La Nina hold -perception that we will be switching phases in the Summer, but I don't think so
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    February's have been wetter than normal but we in a La Nina, and models are dry. If it precip's, I expect snow north of 40N, not that pattern though.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    I expect continued cold, as -EPO is a colder than forecasted pattern.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    ^stupid person
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    N. Pacific pattern is wobbling more than normal. Usually a +400dm -PNA on LR models doesn't vary a lot, become weaker or stronger, but we went all the way to West coast-ridge/Aleutian trough +PNA in 1 model run. We are going back and forth between balancing December, and consistently having -PNA N. Pacific High.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    I think we are generally ridging north in the water. -NAO seems to have the most potential for +900dm general anomaly because W->E/
  20. StormchaserChuck!
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    looking forward to Oct1 - Feb16 2023
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    we're trying
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, it's taking up all the water-area of the Gulf of Alaska.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Nice +AMO https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    There goes the Kelvin wave..
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