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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    I also think we have a higher chance for El Nino in the coming Winter's, 5/9 (warm,neutral,cold).. unless the -pool streak continues, which it might, +5-year streak or something (See Dec2010 vs DEc 2021 research). [2000 was start of cold, 2005 was start of cold, 2010 was start of cold. <They are like "puts" in the GW.]
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Still pushing this thing into +ENSO territory.. the Summer cap is going to correlate with rapidly rising ENSO surface SSTs.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Ridiculous El Nino STJ
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    Wettest I've seen
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    El NIno STJ really kicking in at 312hr
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    That's pretty cool, it's not a La Nina across the world right now. Surface will not be negative much into the Summer.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Anyway, this is regarding the rotation of the Earth, we go from -AAM to +AAM real quick -AAM, 7 days, is LaNina, +AAM, 11 days, is ElNino-like
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Weak El Nino coming for Hurricane Season I saw this last year there was a statistical anomaly/point, let's see if it carries this year.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Well, root for my N. Atlantic SST index (May-Sep)to go deeply negative, we are going into a Weak-Moderate El Nino for the Winter.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    1) El Nino kind of pattern shaping up in the N. Pacific starting tomorrow. 2) Land/water gradient difference remains on 500mb anomaly 3) I like the idea of warmer than normal going into the Summer. -PDO is a strong pattern right now.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Little to no chance we are below average for July, keep that in mind when models show strong +AO for next 15days+ (will trend slightly more -AO)
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Let's see what happens here, 2SD +AO for May
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    Still have this warm up coming, wonder if we'll see El Nino conditions strengthen 12hr vs 384hrs
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Give me a break, I audibled it would even out after December though. We never broke Weak La Nina status on CPC ONI. ^Historically, there is a very strong narrow range as per ENSO strength and NPH High, this is about as stretched+(N. S. Hemipshere) as you'll may be see. (GW could be +0.3 difference, [-1.3])
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    591dm over Maine on the 12z Euro. Nothing anomalous going on worldwide (pattern-index wise).
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    DCA: 103 IAD: 102 BWI: 101 RIC: 101
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, the thing was the Dec 2010 -PNA (300dm vs 230dm#2nd place since 1948), which we then moved warmer for 5 straight years from. Dec 2021 hit 330dm for -PNA, breaking 2010's #1. 330,300,(since1948,230.....
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Pretty satellite day, drought in the SW is not going to be breaking. That's a HIGH pressure.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    588dm to Toronto. I'm always right.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    I think that after about the 6th, we have an El Nino-like pattern setting up in the N. Pacific for 15 days.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    I was noticing it was warm last night.. +EPO's always overperform.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Research: curse of the -NAO 2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 1.00
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    It was 13F a few of those mornings with snow changing to rain on the way.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Welp, there's a pretty nice warmup.
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