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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Check it out ^ June Pac match
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    I think the coming ridge will overperform.. switching to +EPO today for the first time in a while, expect temps to go a little higher. Strong NAO correlation with same-state weather, so a +NAO first could keep us cooler, then a ridge tries to move as models have the NAO switching to negative (keeping ridge suppressed).. I don't think it will suppress the ridge. We hit 98* June 1st with -NAO, this one may do the same ~+day9-13
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, you just figure "it should be warmer here"
  4. StormchaserChuck!
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Thanks, I've compared them before and TAO/Triton seems to be more accurate, but the CPC seems to secondary to larger wave patterns, and sometimes if there is a change in the now, they will correlate with it.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    The SOI was +31.35 today, daily record. Subsurface is WARM>0.0. +PNA in N. Pacific. There's your overpowering correlation again. SOI might be better as a longer-time indicator + days.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Pacific is super favorable for trough, and that is a legit correlation I mentioned it in the Winter, and ENSO subsurface is warm and surface is rapidly warming at same time.. nice short term trough potential that is realized.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    115F in Phoenix mid-June, pretty great correlation to July-Aug above average eastern 2/3 like 0.70, or it will happen next July-Aug(2023), I say 0.90 one is above average(10yr5yr) two-years considered.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    I watch it again and again, the cold is going to lead to this in a few days, a cold-feedback loop, US leading
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    I should have known with +PNA, the SW, and West coast would blast. This is usually how it happens, indexes lead on LR models. First +PNA kind of organic since probably Fall 2020.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, 3/4 3rd year Nina's have been cold though, to break the 3/3 streak.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    115F in Phoenix next weekend. SW Heat dome strengthens further.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Now it climbs up to 115*F in Phoenix next.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    N. Atlantic SST tri-pole (vs I think opp-NAOstate(for the sake of the indicator). or vs relative EC temps) is a good indicator. So far we can go either way..
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Really an anomaly, Pacific is cold+PDO, -epo and +PNA there is this though
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Here's your 98* day
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Japan is pretty cool.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    This isn't going to break.. next to no chance for La Nina.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    -NAO's have correlated with hot weather, very strongly now for 3+ years. The correlation is getting stronger. When I see +NAO on long range models, I think cool/damp/cloudy, -NAO is clear skies, 98* on June 1st is an example. It at least feels nicer/warmer than the actual temperatures.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, the +PNA has completely backed off of models to GOA-low,and more -PDO pattern, we are going back to strong -PDO for/through the Winter I think (La Nina-like minus the conditions).
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino prospects seem to by dying.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    never saw this on ensembles all of last year
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Recent, weak -EPO that popped up recently, and none for many consecutive months going back to Oct 2021. (15 seconds to go through)
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA, -NAO, -EPO today
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    In +PNA no less. First solid +PNA in a long time.
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