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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Models LR models not going La Nina at all.. no signs of -PNA since April
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Warm GOM 7-10 never had less than 16 named storms since 2003. 14 since 1995. (cold GOM had 12 NS' -in a La Nina in 1999)
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    -1.19 to +1.19 is neutral this Winter as per 500mb pattern. It might look like La Nina in jan and feb,.. I dont know
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    Warm GOM SST 7-10's since 1995(AMO+cycle) for December there's my -PNA/El Nino v
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    1995> Atlantic , some interesting stuff, the SST of these July's wasn't even Atlantic-based 500mb going forward into August is time warp late July on models \
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Hit really strong last year and in 2018.. US ridge/RNA ridge collapsed any cold Fall prelude to a cold Winter.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Waves and stuff.. I once found with global currencies, when they move >1% in a day, the next down they were opposite 52% of the time, >10,000 examples.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Time flies.. already almost half way
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Getting worse, SST evolution in the North Pacific looks like 2013-2015
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Here comes El Nino waves.. -PNA for first time in a long time. +PDO thing is setting up a lot like year 13-15,
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    I think so.. 03-04, 04-05 analogy (We only average 3" of snow in December)
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Let's see how it evolves. I would skew warmer in the SW/West
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    I should have saw it coming.. when ENSO surface warms to lite El Nino, PNA in N. Pacific would go negative 0time.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    3 shots of 3rd contour-PNA, which we really haven't seen in that location since December 2021.. as ENSO surface is warming1st time.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    The fake-PNA as ENSO warms
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    A lot of pattern-energy for it to happen. Clouds aren't building so high in the atmosphere as they could.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina is not succeeding. and we have a PDO evolution starting to look like 13-15.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    ^will verify warmer, 95-100 for a probable average of 5 days in there somewhere. 1 or 2 days may break 100, 101, 102.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    +EPO's always overperform as temps.. that it's origins have been in spinning at 90N in arctic circle for 10 days is my only doubt though, It could be a stronger 90N vortex +timelag, vs the actual +EPO
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Real hot pattern setting up for July 17-23.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    15 day GFS ensemble mean hits it at like 85-90% for a stronger signal-pattern (>120dm in the mean). There are different intentions for different things.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    July 17-23 may be hot. Could be nearing 100, or go over it.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Watch about July 17-23 to be particularly hot.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    ECMWF ensb still trash.. probably will always be. You need to build a model on science.
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