Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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I think ur golden there man.
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Probably take a well known path up the great Valley. Rich get richer. Central Tn into Ky special
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Hope u cash in....uh, unless it's strip, lol
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Just looking at the GFS Map. It could be the transfer with it suggesting a void of sorts develops as energy rapidly transfers east.
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WCYB always undercuts modrls amounts. Even when all models go for say 4 to 6, they'll always go less.
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Can u believe that "snowless" stripe!??? Lol. Ds is never that prominent up n2 West Va.. Something amiss there.
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One of the biggest issues in the grand scheme is not getting the truly cold Canadian air down here that's been hanging out and mainly being shunted b4 getting to our Latt. Many of us can remember systems that tracked in a similar fashion as this one that we all still received a decent snowfall, due to much colder air involved ; in place as well as backside caa.
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Yeah, if it doesn't trend away from that it sure is not looking good for the great Valley. Need that shift back south and east.
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From what I gather WCYB in Bristol used the IBM Model.
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Exactly man ! Lol. How embarrassing on their part. What's going on with them. It's a shame what's happened to many "pro's" these days.
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15 to 20" here b4 changeover with that one. Alot of structure damage.
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This is one apparent tough testing for the Models as well as Forecasters. I will say, last Winter nearly all SR Models had us here in Lee County the recipient of DS and very little snow with pretty much all events, other than the Christmas one of which DS wasn't in play. We totalled nearly 30" for the Season. I think I came up with around 9" if the Mods had been right based on the SR runs right b4 onset of the Snow. I think low onset dp's and rates had alot to do with it as have witnessed the other extreme i.e, Jan.- 23-16 Storm of which a mix that transitioned to snow with just a 4 inch amount occured with some areas close by receiving much more. Ds off High Knob was culprit. Carvers earlier points regarding who gets what and how much based on what is on the money I think. If that makes sense,lol
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As I have mentioned on here before. We've officially recorded -20's for lows here and a minus 4 for a high twice. so, 0 this go around at some point seems a real possibility.
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Right with you brother. Been warning folks here of the possibility.
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My thoughts are that the models are factoring in the dry air. Even with the earlier further north solutions. Those wfo's were all looking at those further north earlier solutions during those discussions. Did any of them remark at all about low dps. ? I dont think so. Really surprises me. In light of the south trend and more evident cooler, drier air starting to be shown, I wonder how their next discussion will be.
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Ive noticed that with the GFS. Odd too that it went from almost always showing a snowhole to the opposite.!. Really strange. If an arctic airmass were dropping down ahead of it and was retreating, ala., Feb. 21, 2015 I can see this outcome. There is one other time something similar did happen and there wasn't an arctic mass involved. Dec. 5, 2002. The lp actually was in western Ky. The cad areas got slammed as that lp transferred to off vbeach. I lived in Jonesville then and it began snowing at 9. A.m. with the temp 32. It came down heavy b4 changing to rain around 1. Measured 5 inches.
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Yeah. I agree. There's really no mechanism to cause that. A cutoff low or a very rare Appalachian Storm instance, yeah. But, not this setup. Doesn't make sense.
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Yeah, if that 12 to 15 heavy wet snow did occur here. Lights out for sure. Can u believe western KY ?!
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Alot has to do with the model ingest system. Official Weather Station Data goes into them. We'll use KTRI for instance. It has produced warmer, drier conditions overall for the last couple weeks than areas surrounding it. That is being ingested and therefore reflected. The more that occurs, the more pronounced on the Models. They also use Topography amongst other initialized data and input. I think the Weather Station ingested data is obvious.
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Has anyone noticed that after a system produces a snow hole of sorts with less snow and higher temps within that area, it seems the models reflect that the very next system it seems, lol. Ktri stuck out like a sore thumb with the last system and it being the warm spot within the great Valley. Although a bit broadbrushed, check out that sore thumb on the Euro map. Lol Would say ds or coincidence but, Wise is within that...not very likely at all. One epic warm/snowless hole shouldn't cause that though..strange.
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Exactly. Still several days out.
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One of the local TV Mets said any accs would be above 4000 ft. Lol. Even without the evaporative cooling theres more than likely going to be minor accs down to at least the 2500 ft level and quite possibly lower if qpf is greater than modeled with that first system in seky/swva.
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Yep. That goes along with that nina southern route. Im rooting for the GFS but, EC is probable route, imo.
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Yeah, I agree as far as what is the typical as well. Definitely not wanting that deep southern track and know the UK is crap anymore but, just a sour gut feeling possibility as I recall those nina years and setups when that occurred. Not that extreme south but, the loop west, south and then east of us. March, 09 . Cant remember the other year. Memp. got hammered then Atl and Chatt. Then Tn/NC border east. That is my worry. Should have specified precisely. Not nearly as south as uk depicts.
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That's my concern there ! Happened in a couple Nina Winter's .
