Daniel Boone

5.5" low-end parts of lawn, 7" on snow board.

Smart NWS Bunch there.

You can see the "fingerprint" with that model I discussed earlier. Lol. I am in the process of getting something done about it. Of course it will take awhile to erase affects.

Yeah, probably is.

Omg...talk about meteocre forecasting. 3-4" range for a vast, mixed elevation area...why not 3-6" . ?

About time !

But yet last I checked only had WWA out for netn and Scott and Lee Va..at this juncture, I'd say that's just bad business. Use some logic and skill instead of buying into an earlier model run.

May reach criteria but, doubt NWS issues. They may mention blizzard conditions.

There's more to it than just the pattern and systems "always" forecasting snowfall lower amounts in the KTRI SWVA Area recently. The Model's ingest previous systems track, intensity, precip/snowfall data from numerous NWS and Coop affiliated Stations. January's pattern with these parameters has left a fingerprint with them. Also, there's data flowing into the System from a local Station in Pennington gap. It is in a terrible location to reflect the area's weather. It also doesn't meet NWS siting location Guidelines as it's TH Sensors are just 10-15 feet from a metal structure. Also, the city employees man it and they are less than caring, so to speak. This is the only official station between Middlesboro and KTRI. There's your reflection on Model's.

Let's hope the rgem retakes it's crown it had last winter. Damn 0z Nams a Debbie downer. Hopefully, it's not onto something and just being it's wacky self.

Yeah, that is a concern. Hopefully the strong forcing along the arctic front will mitigate that somewhat and be able to pull the moisture mainly up this way. Storms that fire within the moisture transport route are always a worry.

Kmrx reasoning with their present Totals projection is warm ground and "fast movement". Ground Temps here are not that warm now as that last inch rainfall fell with temps in the lower mid 40's therefore cooling it quite a bit.

Yeah man . Hammer time with that !

Foot or more call for the Plateau is looking good.

That's KMRX younger generation Mets for you there

Just looking over some archived data of the March 2-3 1942 Snowstorm. That storm tracked from around Mobile thru the upstate then west of Hatteras to off Jersey Coast. That Storm still stands as the biggest Snowfall in most of Lee County on Record. Reportedly 34" in Jonesville. 36" in Pennington gap we're measured. Asheville received 16" from it. That Storm dumped on a huge area. Stretching from Ne Ga to Maine and back to eastern Ohio Valley. Of course, this one will be nothing like that although, track and some 500 mb features are similar. You can find map data on NOAA's daily weather map archived page. Also, photos from Pittsburgh of it where over 2 feet fell..

Bingo ! Excellent point Carvers. I've saw many March storms overperform by a large margin.

Yeah, that would be a good thing and quite possibly allow for the higher end totals.

It appears the model's are having trouble not implementing the thorn that plagued the Valley in January. Shift everything a few miles east and would be great. Could be, cold infiltrates enough this go round to dislodge that Thorn.

Yeah, the model's will follow that pattern somewhat as that was ingested from this Winter's track's.

This looks to have the potential for a classic major March Snowstorm. Looks fairly likely the Plateau will receive a foot or more. Slow this thing down a tad and increase duration and a true to form old fashioned big March snowstorm would result with 1 to 2 feet Totals.

If we do get a decent March Storm,the 74-75 analog will have worked out somewhat. Of course no analogues going to be exact or even real close to carbon copy. I actually feel pretty confident in a decent snowfall this time. Hopefully it pans out

Here's a link with pics of a major Snowstorm that encompassed a large area, including ours. It stretched from NE Georgia all the way to NewYork. Mainly west side of Apps. It is Lee Counties biggest on record with Pennington gap recording about 3 feet ! My parents spoke of it being up to the windows on the level. The local paper has an article on it. Very interesting. Would post if there were room.

Lmao. Good one !!!

Exactly! Excellent factual point.