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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that blocking during a Nino is a big time difference maker, even with a -PNA. Historical analysis is clearcut irt that. Even can mute the decent amp MJO warm phases to where we still score in the upper SE and MA.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Larry had a bit of Info on the MJO Phases and the years noted that stayed cold during warm phases in SE Sub forum. Some good ones in there. January 1978 was one. It was cold and snowy the entire month here. Also , January 2010. He also showed the ones in which it was warm as well. Hard to believe but, they were nearly even. A slight hedge on warm side 51% I think. Blocking and El nino appears to be the difference maker.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Man, we're completely on the same page. Larry posted on SE Forum irt what we're discussing, giving an explanation on how we get around warm ph. Exactly what we discussed yesterday. He brought up an example and that being last Christmas cold shot being during MJO Ph 5. I just replied you and I had mentioned the ways we get around that in the Tn valley Forum. Thing is, HLB is not guaranteed as we know. Also, cold last Christmas took forever to finally get in here and was short lived. Makes sense with the MJO working against it. Hopefully, strong blocking will set up, if not our worries are warranted. P.S, just went back and saw someone had posted Larry's remarks here. Should of looked before I leaped, lol. Btw, a shoutout to Larry, he is top notch in the meteorological community and as a genuine Person.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah agree Larry, that was what Carvers and I in the Tenn Valley Forum were saying regarding how we get around the MJO .warm phases.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Probably see those snow projections increase as we get closer if the advertised pattern continues to evolve.
  6. Daniel Boone
    A Feb. 2015 setup I could go along with that statement but, I don't see it here.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. I think we have a decent shot at a couple respectable Snowfalls the first week of January before the possibility of the MJO screwing things up. We still may get a surprise by the end of this Month. May be something similar to what we just had or a little better, imo. I'm with you on the idea that even if the MJO does do as projected, we still won't torch and may even score a time or two. Feb. Does look good overall as of now.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, right with you there man. Remarked in SE Forum regarding that. That's really the only fly in the ointment from what would be a great Jan thru February imo. The MJO zooming through cold phases but crawling through the warm. Why couldn't it be the other way around, lol. Hopefully, goes liw amp warm and blocking will counter. The ace for us as far as a memorable old fashioned Winter Pattern is the Strat. If it occurs, could be an epic February as at least part of that period the MJO should be in cold phases.
  9. Daniel Boone
    If all pans out, much better than last year. However, still a fly in the ointment so to speak. We still have a problem with the MJO, all due to the extremely warm wpac . Notice how once it gets to the cold phases it zooms through then crawls through the warm.?.. That could spell a short cold period in early January followed by an extended nirmal to mild stretch again. Thankfully, the Nino should mitigate the mildness with that . Also, the Strat deal could really switch it to full bore old fashioned Winter late January/through Feb.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, saw that post, lol.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with an inch here. Reports of 2 inches along Lee/Wise line.
  12. Daniel Boone
    GFS really was GooFuS with this one. Saw WJHL show their Model cast earlier and it just totally blew it. Allender that used to be there told me it was basically the GFS they use.
  13. Daniel Boone
    You guys will probably wind up with 2-3" . Maybe 4 in a few spots.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Heavy snow shower with gusty winds and visibility below 75 yards dropped this in about 5 minutes .
  15. Daniel Boone
    Extremely heavy snshwr just moved through here with gust 30-40 mph. Covered ground with about 1/4-1/5".
  16. Daniel Boone
    Extremely heavy snshwr just moved through here with gust 30-40 mph. Covered ground with about 1/4-1/5".
  17. Daniel Boone
    Lt Snow began here around 20 minutes ago. Mainly graupel but also some small flakes 1/8-1/4" dia. Temp is 38.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Everything further North. Trajectory still looks to get southern extent of those heavier returns in KY later into SWVA/NE Tn . Unless they die off or Get pulled even further North and even miss this area.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Glad you did and great analysis as usual man.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Was just looking at that a little while ago. Probably has legs this time. Definitely a snow threat last week of the month. Too bad not a few days sooner for Christmas.
  21. Daniel Boone
    It's basically keeping what it has further North. Has the flow off Lake Michigan aimed toward Wva whereas other Models have it further South toward SEKY and the SW tiip of VA and on to the TN/NC Mountains.
  22. Daniel Boone
    For whatever reason the GFS somehow doesn't pickup basically any nwsf really. Just the disturbance mainly and that to the North.
  23. Daniel Boone
    GFS basically says what nw flow event . Hopefully it's wrong.
  24. Daniel Boone
    If the Hrrr hasn't been upgraded any it still has a bit of a warm bias in this area. So, will be a test to see if that still exists.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's why I mentioned there should be a semblance. I agree with you totally on the strength for sure brother.
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