Jump to content

Daniel Boone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,846

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. That's the thing. It could work better for us with a mix Nina/Nino Pattern. Nina more apt to promote Arctic airmass delivery via Polar Jet and Clipper's as well. Nino SJT along with Blocking. Enhanced possibility of a big Dog imo. If we can get that Arctic airmass down here as shown then , that should be when the real fun begins.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, I agree if we get that bridge we should be in business. I think the MJO is definitely involved with the pattern but, think it's having some substitute relieving it some. That Nina Ridge trying to establish into the Aleutians occasionally is being forced most probably by those SST'S aforementioned at least in Tandem with the warm western Nino SST Area. A typical Nino Aleutian Low , or even an east based GOA LP is being knocked off kilter.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Exactly what's been going on. Bluewave posted recently in the regular Forum regarding that and his thoughts behind it. The Western Pac Warm pool is what he said and actually gave a pretty convincing reasoning. Many, Pros and Enthusiasts alike gave their argument in how the Nino should overcome that. Apparently, it hasn't. It probably is trying thus the occasional -EPO.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Model reflection of MJO warm phases projection along with Jet Ext..
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, with that strong -NAO the GFS should correct SE with those cutting Systems. May even do like the lumbering LP that hit central Plains with that blizzard a little over a week ago. It cut toward the MW then got shunted SE by the HP in Canada then. That used to happen in Winter's of yore when blocking was in place. If one did cut it would get blocked and then have to travel SE under and around the blocking.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that's the case most of the time. Hopefully, the strong -NAO will ultimately lead to those Systems tracking SE and we get some hybrid Transfers ala 95-96. Phasing with STJ Systems would be the thing to watch with the Nino being around now.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Bingo ! I think you nailed there buddy.
  8. Daniel Boone
    My Uncle and Cousins lived in NW Ohio. They never get over that one. Amazing !
  9. Daniel Boone
    Exactly. Those super warm SST'S in the western PAC is the culprit I'm pretty confident of.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yep. Living up to it's name for us.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that OV Lp. Started to mention earlier that I bet we'd have to deal with that when the GFS went South with basically a Miller A. Puts us in the screw zone.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah true. Wouldn't it be a slap for the great Valley to get missed to the South and then North. Wouldn't be a huge surprise though as has happened quite a few times, even EWSN , lol. So's the life of those living in the Great Valley.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looks like northern Alabama and Georgia may score with that one.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully we can get that clean Miller A southern track with stronger hp to the North. It's always rather worrisome, particularly here in the great Valley, when there's not a very cold Airmass in place. Also, definitely don't want a strong storm to our South with just marginal cold for it to pull down as that would result in stronger wind thereby enhaning downsloping.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Remember that one well. High ratio here as Temp was around 20. Measured 7 inches.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Summer '88 still holds the Record for hottest I've ever recorded. 101. The extended stretches of extreme heat as you mentioned were unreal!
  17. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that was the only good Month of that Winter. You outdone us here by about about 3 inches. The end of the Month one was the biggest. I think it was the 25th. 5 inches here . Would have been an inch or two more were not for it sleeting over an hour at the beginning. Ice pellets that mounted to about half inch. You probably had all Snow with that one.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Hope that comes to fruition. It would make it easier to handle the cutter next Weekend. Carvers made good points regarding it . It could pay dividends afterward.
  19. Daniel Boone
    That EC Ensemble 500 depiction is very close to Ideal.
  20. Daniel Boone
    I buy into the Arctic Airmass coming into the lower 48. Not typical for a strong Nino but, with a rather Nina/Nino hybrid Pac Pattern to coin it,along with a strong -NAO and AO very much possible if not probable. I am rather saddened by the nw turn in the early Jan big Storm. Really not surprising though. Need a HP dropping down from the N or NW to keep that thing from doing that. A banana High would do the trick but, doesnt look to be a chance of that happening either.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Here's hoping the weakened TPV will allow for a strong push of Arctic air into the Central/Eastern US thereby causing a STJ System to dump on you.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, trending that way. Appears to be a weakness there up the eastern OV.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, 12z GooFuS has that System coming way North. At least CMC, UKMET still look good. Hopefully we get more HP to the North. The close proximity of the Lows hurts as it doesn't allow cold to funnel behind them. That can be a problem with Nino's. It does generally keep one from becoming strong and amping. However, the GFS has that first one a strong one and amping.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Yeah but, as far as overall pattern compared to just a few days ago. Honestly, I hadn't looked at the 6z so yeah, that trough coming into the west sooner doesn't help matters. We need to get a true Nino augmented NPAC Aleutian LP. The -PDO is hurting . Mainly the extreme WPAC warm SST'S are what's appears to be causing the problem imo. Wants to force a Nina like NPAC.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Ensembles look better first half of January. Operationals are going to spit out different solutions often .
×
×
  • Create New...