Itstrainingtime

Last couple of scans on CTP's radar seems to indicate some weakening. Or it is consolidating.

It was just raining in Strasburg.

It rains in Strasburg every day it seems.

It's like Corry PA with snow only in Strasburg it rains.

Harrisburg...you ain't got nothin' on Strasburg! 

They must be approaching 100" on the year by now.  

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wrong advice is welcomed haha!  But yeah, I have been seeing the potential for that midday line for a while now but even if it does pop much of the guidance has it firing east of the river and pulling away quickly.  Needless to say, I will be watching the 12z runs closely.

As an aside, it can actually be fun trying to outmaneuver storms while on the boat.  Not severe obviously but just run of the mill stuff.  When you have a weather nut at the helm with a high-def radar in-hand and about a 10 mile length of surface water to traverse, it's actually not all that hard at times to just outrun little cells to to the north or south.  Then laugh maniacally as you see others getting dumped on a couple miles away.  Hey, it's the little things ha.

I have an uncle who is in his 80s now and has spent a lot of time out on the water - he was in the Coast Guard way back when and has had a boat for as long as I can remember. He lives in Lewes DE and spends much of his time out on the bay and in the Atlantic. When I was quite small, my dad and I were out with him one day and a storm blew in. No movement whatsoever to head for land. It was almost like my uncle and my father were defying the gods to strike us. There we were, in his small-ass 18' dinghy in the middle of the open waters with the storm pounding us. Lightning everywhere. Water was churnin'. Dad kept looking at me like "you're fine" - I wasn't fine. I wanted off the damn boat and back in the beach house. That wouldn't happen for many more hours.

Ever since than I've been leery about being on the open water in storms. 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I doubt it being on the line between D1 and D0 last time, but the area is bigger than 2020.   Most of Central MD especially to my South and Southeast are in the same boat.  Some of them were D2 last week. 

I knew that south of you there was a big area of D2, I wasn't sure how they had fared over the past week. 

44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.13" of rain last evening.  Alright kids, help me out.  My wife and I are taking some friends out on the boat Friday morning (arriving ~10am).  I've been pouring over the guidance all week and I'm pretty secure in the fact that things will be cleared out by then, and tend to do so rather quickly when the disturbance sweeps through.  However, there is some guidance (primarily the NAM) that wants to keep some showers lingering around through the mid to late morning hours.  I think we'll be in for a mostly beautiful day, in what is a transition day to a beautiful weekend.  What say ye?

Also, has anyone else noticed that Monday keeps consistently showing up as a day with widespread storms on virtually all the modeling?

Last thing I want to do is give you wrong advice about Friday. I do think the day is when we transition into a nicer pattern...MU's Elliott also mentioned a scenario that Bubbler shared regarding the NAM's depiction of one last line rolling through midday. If that doesn't materialize the day will end up dry.

SPC was touting Monday in yesterday's Day 4-8 outlook. They seemed concerned about a potential severe outbreak. 

47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those 2-4" progs North of Harrisburg would cause flooding with the amounts of rain they have already had. Think you will still be in a drought (D0) on the map this AM?  I think D1 for my area though it is really D2 or D3 within my small area.   I am over 10" behind for the year now.   2-3" behind for June and July alone. 

Really think you should be D2 at least but will they paint that for such a small area?

Total rainfall yesterday was .09" after the shower that rolled through just before midnight.

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Radar shows you getting into the rain now? 

HR denied! Just a few drops falling. 

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Central Eastern York County is getting drenched.   FFW?

Lightning across the river is incredible.

 Currently there is non-stop (literally) rolling thunder here, but only .03" of rain as the storm slides past JUST to my west.

Sun, clouds, humid and 84. 

46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Since it was pointed out that the Euro had a right call the other day I just checked it and it suggests Lanco get their FFW's going.  It's training time as the front stalls in East PA early Friday AM.  A very small amount of that in most of Lanco is today, most Friday AM.

 

 

 

That is more than 15 times wetter for Lanco than the past weekend's flood watch-o-rama. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It was a prime period just a day or two ago so still watching.   In the meantime, here is USGS getting the drought map ready for tomorrow AM

 

R'ville in the center of the map!

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I had just moved to Nebraska that year and one of my friends had to shovel my driveway in the home in Mannheim township I still owned.

He said, “man, you guys got alot of snow”.


.

What an amazing event it had to be for those lucky enough to get under that squall. 

Thanks for sharing your story. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some rain in southern York now as well.  84 here. 

Yes indeed. Popomatic has commenced!

A lone cell has popped over Adams county - only other activity is up towards Williamsport. 

Mostly sunny and 82 currently. 

Sun is finally making an appearance here - we'll see if we get some destabilization going this afternoon. 

To all who provided information, thank you very much! In my nearly 58 years on earth, this stands out to me as the biggest freak weather event to ever hit my county. 

And I was on the outside looking in. But it was still amazing. 

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I remember it well.  My buddy who runs a pizza shop near the airport called me to say he had almost a foot of snow and I was like what the hell are you talking about haha.  See below for LNP's writeup of the event including thoughts from Horst (note this was written before the event ended so totals ended up much higher).  Also, I see what you did there with the use of tomfoolery!

It was the wintertime equivalent of a summer downpour.

What could be called a snow thunderstorm, minus the thunder, dumped more than 4 inches of snow by 11 p.m. on parts of Lancaster County Tuesday, but other parts did not see a single flake.

"For some people in Lancaster County, this could be the biggest snowstorm of the season, while for others, they're saying, 'What snow?' " Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst said.

Horst said the wintry deluge was caused by an arctic air mass moving into the area, meeting the tail edge of a storm that dropped a dusting of snow on much of the county earlier Tuesday.

"This is where the leading edge of the arctic air is meeting the exiting storm," Horst said. "It's like a boundary, a mini front, that is producing this snow squall."

The front produced a curving band of heavy snow, Horst said, and "if you're under it, you're going, 'My goodness.' "

Radar seemed to show the storm set up over the heart of Manheim Township, extending on a line from Route 30 near Lancaster city, north toward Neffsville, on up to Lititz and Brickerville. The storm, Horst said, is "remarkably stationary," the type of storm "that sets up over an area and just pounds somebody for an hour or two, like a gutter-gushing thunderstorm would."

"It's like a thunderstorm that doesn't move," he said. "So basically, 80 percent of Lancaster County is seeing nothing, but if you're under this narrow band of heavy snow squalls, it's just dumping."

The snow began about 8:30 p.m., and by 10:30 p.m., Richard Wolf, who lives near Landis Valley, had "5 inches of snow at my house."

"We're getting blasted," Wolf said.

PennDOT has responded by putting all 66 trucks on the road, Rick Ferguson, the assistant county maintenance manager, said.

"We have a full shift on until midnight and another full shift coming in at midnight," he said Tuesday night. "They'll work until … noon."

Though the storm is not hitting the entire county, Ferguson said trucks will do their regular routes "because we don't know where it might move to."

Thank you! Including Horst is always a win.  

I actually started my search with him, I remember quite clearly his twitter posts the following morning. I wasn't able to go back far enough on twitter to find this. 

We talk about once in a lifetime weather events...this is certainly one of them. These things simply don't happen in Lancaster county PA. In the snowbelts, sure. Not here. This will likely never happen again. 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

https://www.coursehero.com/file/29946581/Snow-Storm-of-2009pdf/

 

One page free

Thank you! Great writeup.

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I believe it was 2009.


.yep…..see here:

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Observed-snowfall-totals-inches-over-Lancaster-County-associated-with-the-February-3-4_fig1_242238466

Thank you SO much! I have been searching online for weeks and kind of stunned that I hadn't found anything about it. 

Appreciate it!

Does anyone remember the date, or at least the year that the central part of Lancaster county got that freak 1' inverted trough/snow squall maybe 12ish years ago? I have no record since I got no snow...but there was a night when the area from Lititz down through Manheim Twp area got up to 12" of snow while the rest of the county was partly cloudy. I do know that some models were indicating something was going to happen but I think it was modeled to happen a bit further east of us. 

At any rate, I remember getting a call early the following morning from a colleague asking if I was going to go into the office...keep in mind that I had nothing beyond a partly cloudy, cold night. When he told me that he had a foot of snow overnight...I thought he was up to some dark, twisted form of tomfoolery. I was not amused. I was even less amused when I found out it actually happened. 

3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

0.75” from early morning storm.


.

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Had a quick hitting, small cell go right over us to the tune of close .2".  Largest rain in 10 days.  3.05" now in the last 40ish days.  Looks like a lot of the central part of Lanco got smashed when that same small cell turned into a large complex.... with some over 1" totals on WU.   Every bit counts when looking at the GFS for the next 2 weeks. 

.02" here in Maytown.

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Every model except the GFS and Fv3 shows rain for some of the LSV tonight.  Weird to remove it.  The Nam, not on a hot streak, drops 1" in Lanco.   Even Dr No has LSV rain.   The 3K suggest FFW's should be posted with near 2" in some locations. 

FWIW  - MU is mentioning showers late tonight and early tomorrow. CTP still says showers ending by late tonight.